10 月报电话会：持续看好创新主线，关注 Q3 业绩改善 20251009 摘要 创新药板块仍是主线，受益于 BD 交易和数据催化，尽管近期大额交易 未达预期，但恒瑞等公司持续推进，三四季度仍有投资机会。 CRO、CDMO 及上游产业链受益于美国降息预期和订单业绩回暖，医疗 器械（高耗材、设备）业绩困境反转趋势明显，Q3 业绩预计改善。 投资策略上，关注创新主线（ESMO 会议催化、BD 交易），Q3 业绩改 善，基药目录政策及院内中药公司调整带来的短期催化。 2025 年 10 月，投资组合微调，增加长春高新、仙琚药业、贝达药业、 腾科药业等创新药产业链公司，以及药明系公司和天玉股份等业绩拐点 公司。 创新药基本面良好，平台化（研发到商业化）、海外兑现（呋喹替尼、 则布替尼）、早期研发平台化是关键驱动因素。 金股筛选标准：产业链纵向延伸能力、兑现能力、早期研发平台体系化 能力。推荐长春高新、贝达药业、盟科医药、先声药业。 重点推荐亚美康德、药明生物和妙美和联，受益于太极业务强劲、单抗 业务恢复、ADC 项目高增，预计 2025 年业绩增长显著。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）医药板块的整体表现如何？未来的主要 ...

新华财经上海10月9日电中信建投证券研报认为，国庆长假期间港股器械公司整体表现较好，多个医疗 器械龙头公司收涨。预计医疗器械板块三季度多家公司受益新产品新业务放量而实现环比改善，或去年 同期低基数基础上实现高增长；其中高值耗材和医疗设备及上游板块的部分公司实现高增长，IVD（体 外诊断）行业部分企业短期受医保DRG（疾病诊断分组）改革和集采等政策影响有所承压，低值耗材 行业各公司情况有所分化。短期来看建议把握业绩改善个股的轮动上涨机会，长期来看建议关注创新、 出海和并购整合的机会。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China National Pharmaceutical Group Technology Co., Ltd. (国药科技股份) reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for the year ending June 30, 2025, with revenue reaching approximately HKD 61.3 million, representing a year-on-year increase of about 48% [1] - The company reported a loss attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 0.9 million, which is a substantial reduction of about 95% compared to the previous year [1] - The increase in revenue is primarily attributed to the rising demand in the health products market and improved operational efficiency in supply chain services, underscoring the effectiveness of the company's strategic focus on these core business areas [1] Group 2 - The board of directors noted that the significant improvement in the group's financial performance this year is mainly due to several net impacts, including a gross profit increase of approximately HKD 9.2 million or 184% year-on-year due to business improvements [1] - The company has strengthened cost control over administrative and operational expenses [1] - The company recorded capitalized loan income of approximately HKD 3.9 million this year, which contributed to a reduction in financing costs due to the capitalized loans [1]

Core Viewpoint - *ST Rendo has reached a trading limit with a price of 6.15 yuan, reflecting a 5.04% increase, driven by bankruptcy restructuring, performance improvement, and strategic investment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company completed its bankruptcy restructuring, resolving historical debt issues and significantly optimizing its asset-liability structure [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the net profit is reported to be between 3.47 billion to 3.49 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [2]. - The company confirmed a debt restructuring gain of 4.77 billion to 5.07 billion yuan, greatly improving its financial condition [2]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - CITIC Capital's affiliate has become the largest shareholder, bringing expectations for resource integration [2]. - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, actively investing in the AI industry to seek a second growth curve, which has generated market optimism about its future [2]. - The subsidiary, Heli Bao, has seen normal operations in its payment business, with cross-border payment business growing by 159%, providing support for the stock price despite a decline in main business revenue [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - On September 16, 2025, the financial technology sector showed active performance, and *ST Rendo, as a related concept stock, may have benefited from sector momentum [2]. - Technical indicators such as MACD forming a golden cross and breaking through the upper Bollinger Band may attract more technical investors [2]. - There may have been inflows of main funds on that day, contributing to the stock price hitting the trading limit [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Tangshan Port [3] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance showed significant improvement compared to Q1, with a notable recovery in coal cargo volume [1][7] - The company is focusing on its core business of bulk cargo handling and storage, leveraging its strategic location in the Jing-Tang port area [7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, Tangshan Port reported total revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 890 million yuan, down 19.8% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.2%, while net profit was 500 million yuan, down 10.5%, showing a significant narrowing of the decline compared to Q1 [1] - The company's total cargo throughput for H1 2025 was 120 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous year, with coal throughput increasing by 10.1% to 30 million tons [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2025E at 5.689 billion yuan, 2026E at 5.723 billion yuan, and 2027E at 5.819 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 1%, and 2% respectively [2][13] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 1.901 billion yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 12.3x and a PB ratio of 1.1x [7][13] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Tangshan Port Industrial Group Co., Ltd., holds a 44.88% stake in the company [3] Market Performance - The current share price is 3.96 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 2.35 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - 中航光电 reported a revenue increase in the second quarter of 2025, indicating a performance turnaround despite a decline in net profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 111.83 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, while total profit decreased by 9.21% to 17.75 billion yuan [1]. - In Q2 alone, revenue reached 63.45 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 31.13%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.97 billion yuan, up 24.55% from Q1 [1]. Product Performance - All three major product categories saw revenue growth in the first half of 2025: - Electrical connectors and integrated interconnect components generated 86.04 billion yuan, up 20.86% - Electrical connectors and integrated interconnect components achieved 16.24 billion yuan, a 22.42% increase - Liquid cooling solutions and other products reached 9.56 billion yuan, growing by 27.08% [2]. - The company's business in the new energy vehicle sector experienced over 50% year-on-year growth, surpassing the industry average [2]. Market Position and Strategy - 中航光电 has successfully integrated into the core supply chain of leading domestic automotive manufacturers, transitioning from high-voltage interconnects to complete vehicle interconnects [2]. - The company is focusing on key clients in the industrial equipment sector, capitalizing on opportunities in photovoltaic energy storage and electrification of engineering machinery [3]. Margin and Cost Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the gross margin for connectors has declined, with the overall industry gross margin at 30.31%, down 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for electrical connectors and integrated components fell by 7.7 percentage points, while the gross margin for optical connectors and other optical devices decreased by 2.94 percentage points to 18.08% [3]. - The company faces dual pressures from rising raw material costs and decreasing product prices due to competitive procurement practices [3]. Future Outlook - The company did not provide specific forecasts for the second half of 2025 but indicated that external uncertainties remain significant [4]. - Management expects noticeable improvements in scale and profitability in Q2, but cautioned that Q3 and Q4 will require ongoing monitoring [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shouke Co., Ltd. (SH600376) reached its daily limit with a price of 2.9 yuan, marking a 10% increase, attributed to improvements in performance and favorable policy expectations in the real estate sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shouke Co., Ltd. primarily engages in real estate development, property management, and urban renewal, focusing on diversifying its business [2]. - The company's mid-year report for 2025 indicated a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.839 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year improvement of 5.61%, despite still being in a loss position [2]. Group 2: Market and Policy Environment - Recent positive trends in real estate policies have led to strong market expectations, with the government likely to introduce more supportive measures to stabilize and promote the real estate market [2]. - As a real estate developer, Shouke Co., Ltd. stands to benefit from these anticipated policies, attracting market attention and investment [2]. Group 3: Market Activity - On September 4, the real estate sector exhibited strong performance, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limits, contributing to the rise in Shouke Co., Ltd.'s stock price [2]. - There was significant inflow of capital into the real estate sector and Shouke Co., Ltd., which likely propelled the stock to its limit [2]. - Technically, the stock may have broken through a resistance level after a period of low consolidation, attracting further buying interest [2].

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou High-tech reached its daily limit up with a price of 21.01 yuan, reflecting a 19.99% increase, and a total market capitalization of 2.661 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Reasons for Stock Surge - The stock surge is attributed to a change in control, performance improvement, and business synergy. The new controlling shareholder, Jirong Weiye, brings resources and technical advantages in the energy technology sector, which is expected to create new development opportunities for the company [2] - The original shareholders have committed to ensuring positive net profits and annual revenues of no less than 300 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, along with a cash compensation mechanism [2] - The company's 2025 semi-annual report shows a year-on-year revenue increase of 28.79% to 197 million yuan, with a 21.54% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating a trend of performance improvement [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities improved to 4.97 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The establishment of a joint venture with Sun Cable is expected to enhance industry chain synergy and expand into the South China market [2] - Governance improvements include the revision of multiple management systems and the establishment of an audit committee, enhancing the powers of independent directors [2] - The electrical equipment sector showed some stock movements on the same day, indicating a certain level of sector linkage [2] - On a technical level, if the stock breaks through key resistance levels, and significant net buying from large orders is observed, it suggests inflow of institutional funds driving the stock price limit up [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) experienced a stock price increase of over 8% following the release of its interim results, despite a decline in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 237.53 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 20.52% [1] - Shareholder profit was 3.10 billion RMB, down 25.31% year-on-year [1] - Quarterly analysis shows Q1 and Q2 revenues decreased by 18% and 23% respectively, while net profit attributable to shareholders saw a decline of 40% in Q1 but a slight increase of 1% in Q2 [1] Operational Highlights - In the first half of the year, three operational mines generated a total revenue of 2.8 billion RMB, an increase of 3% year-on-year [1] - The attributable profit from these mines was 550 million RMB, up 29% year-on-year, accounting for 18% of the company's net profit [1] - Specific contributions from individual mines include 230 million RMB from Ruimu Nickel-Cobalt Mine, 150 million RMB from Shandake Copper-Gold Mine, and 170 million RMB from Duda Lead-Zinc Mine [1] Future Prospects - The approval process for the Sia Dike Copper Mine project in Pakistan has been fully applied for and is largely approved [1] - The Aynak Copper Mine in Afghanistan is accelerating preliminary preparations, including feasibility studies and access road construction [1] - The commencement of production at these two mines is expected to significantly enhance the performance contribution from the resource sector, indicating considerable potential for value reassessment [1]

Core Insights - Dalipe Holdings (01921) reported a mid-year performance for 2025, with revenue of 1.694 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% [1] - The net loss narrowed significantly to 14.965 million RMB, a reduction of 78.5% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic loss per share was reported at 0.01 RMB [1] Financial Performance - Revenue reached 1.694 billion RMB, showing a 10% increase year-on-year [1] - The net loss decreased to 14.965 million RMB, indicating a substantial improvement in financial performance [1] - Basic loss per share was recorded at 0.01 RMB [1] Strategic Adjustments - The improvement in financial performance is attributed to the continuous optimization and adjustment of product and market structures [1] - The company's competitiveness has been enhanced as a result of these strategic adjustments [1]