1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market shows a situation where the pattern of refined nickel surplus remains unchanged, and the frequent policy adjustments of the Indonesian government and heavy macro - negative factors are expected to suppress nickel prices, leading to a weak operation of nickel prices [1]. - The stainless - steel market has a relatively loose supply, slow demand recovery, limited support from raw material prices, and heavy pressure on the non - ferrous sector under macro - negative factors, so the stainless - steel price is expected to show a weak trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Market Price and Volume Information - On April 3, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day, with decreases of 1,960 yuan/ton, 2,130 yuan/ton, 2,140 yuan/ton, and 2,070 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 184,999 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest of the active contract was 89,599 lots, a decrease of 1 lot [1]. - The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel and LME 15 - month nickel also decreased, with decreases of 160 US dollars/ton and 227.39 US dollars/ton respectively. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 4,210 lots, a decrease of 1,463 lots compared with the previous day [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore changed little, and port inventories were stable. Some main production areas in Indonesia adjusted production, with a decrease in scheduled production and a downward expectation of metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to suffer losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - Demand side: The scheduled production of ternary materials decreased; the scheduled production of stainless - steel plants was stable and improving; the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable. As of April 2, the LME nickel inventory was 199,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 311 tons compared with the previous day [1]. Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume Information - On April 3, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 185,423 lots, an increase of 51,383 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest of the active contract was 98,312 lots, a decrease of 12,271 lots [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: The scheduled production of stainless - steel decreased slightly [1]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel last week was 705,800 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons [1]. Cost - The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1].

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Daily Trading Strategy - Production Date: April 2, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Zhang Na (F03104186/Z0021294), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) - Report Issuing Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: The international biodiesel policy boosts the sector, but the US policy mainly affects 2026 and later. Palm oil supply is rising but may be affected by weather, with weak demand and potential inventory accumulation. Domestic demand is weak, and the 05 contract is near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high. Soybean oil is affected by multiple factors, with the 05 contract in short - term oscillation and expected to be weak in April [3][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic weekly production is rising, supply pressure persists, and inventory is increasing. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 78,000 yuan [7]. - **Copper**: Market sentiment is affected by macro uncertainties, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are many uncertainties in the market. Although there is downward pressure, due to various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions [14][15]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][19]. - **PP**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. - **Plastic**: Supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract basis at high prices [21][23]. - **PVC**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. - **Soybean Meal**: International supply pressure is high, and domestic supply is gradually improving. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [27]. - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [29][30]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 1865 - 1910 [31]. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Palm oil rose 2.04%, soybean oil 0.66%, and rapeseed oil 1.69% [3]. - **International Factors**: The US plans to increase biofuel blending, and there are weather warnings in palm oil - producing areas. Indian palm oil imports increased in March [3]. - **Domestic Factors**: Palm oil import profit is inverted, demand is weak, and inventory is low. Soybean oil production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell high for the 05 palm oil contract; the 05 soybean oil contract is expected to be weak in April [3][6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price fell 1.25% to 73,723.30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [7]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is high with some small - factory production cuts. Demand is growing, and inventory is increasing but at a slower rate [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the spread after concentrated warrant cancellation, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the 73,000 - 78,000 yuan range [7]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated and declined [13]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply may decrease slightly in April, demand in the peak season is less than expected, and inventory has increased slightly [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. Crude Oil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: OPEC+ is increasing production, US production is slightly up, and global demand and inventory are complex. There are many geopolitical factors [14][15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [15]. Asphalt - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level [16][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [19]. PP - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Downstream demand is slowly recovering, supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and inventory is at a medium - low level [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. Plastic - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is increasing with new production and some maintenance, demand recovery is slow, and inventory is at a medium - low level [21][23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short the 05 contract basis at high prices [23]. PVC - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and inventory is slowly decreasing [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The price rose 0.57% [25]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: International supply pressure is high, domestic supply is improving, and demand is weak [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [26]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and inventory is increasing [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate in the 750 - 810 yuan/ton range [27]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, with slow rebar de - stocking and good hot - rolled coil de - stocking [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is expected to oscillate [28]. Coking Coal - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but demand lacks elasticity [29][30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [30]. Urea - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is slightly easing, demand is affected by price, and inventory is decreasing [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the 1865 - 1910 range [31].