Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Natural colorants and plant extracts Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: Expected to be between 174 million to 204 million CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 117% to 154% [2][3] - **Revenue**: Projected revenue for H1 2025 is between 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of approximately -1% to 8% [3] - **Q2 Performance**: Revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -1% to 16% [2][3] Business Segments Cotton Seed Business - **Performance**: Achieved profitability in H1 2025, significantly contributing to overall performance improvement [5] - **Market Strategy**: Utilized a locking procurement strategy to mitigate price fluctuations, leading to stable cash flow and profit [5] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated seasonal decline in Q3, but expected recovery in Q4 with the new processing season [5] Plant Extract Business - **Recovery**: Q2 2025 showed a strong recovery despite price declines in key products; driven by rapid growth in downstream demand [6] - **Market Trends**: The FDA's ban on synthetic colorants is expected to accelerate the shift towards natural colorants, presenting significant market opportunities [6][7] - **Product Development**: Transitioning from a production company to a solution provider, expanding applications in various sectors [9] Product Highlights - **Top Performers**: Stevia, silymarin, and Sichuan pepper extract showed strong performance in H1 2025 [4][10] - **Market Share Goals**: Aiming to increase market share of chili red to over 80% through optimized processes and equipment [4][15] Regulatory Impact - **FDA Regulations**: The FDA's plan to ban certain synthetic colorants by the end of 2026 is expected to create a global shift towards natural colorants [7][8] - **Market Dynamics**: Natural colorants are currently priced several times higher than synthetic alternatives, indicating substantial replacement potential [7][8] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Currently holds approximately 70% market share in chili red, with plans to increase to over 80% [15] - **Competitors**: Faces competition from breeding and planting companies and Indian counterparts in the chili extract market [15] Future Growth Expectations - **Long-term Projections**: Anticipates stable growth in existing products with a target of 10% to 15% annual growth, while new products may grow at 20% to 30% [20] - **Strategic Initiatives**: Plans to expand into natural sweeteners and essential oils, aiming for a leading global market position [10][20] Operational Advantages - **Cost Efficiency**: Lower production costs due to optimized processes and strategic raw material sourcing across multiple regions [22] - **R&D Capabilities**: Strong R&D team with over 100 members, including PhDs, enhancing product quality and production efficiency [23] Challenges and Mitigation Strategies - **Supply Chain Risks**: Potential price increases in raw materials and the need for supplier trust are identified risks [24] - **Response Measures**: Expanding base locations domestically and internationally to ensure stable supply and mitigate risks [24] Conclusion - **Market Leadership**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for natural colorants and plant extracts, supported by strong financial performance, strategic initiatives, and regulatory tailwinds [26]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of -0.89% to 7.71% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 202 million and 232 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 102.33% to 132.38% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 174 million and 204 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 117.40% to 154.88% compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Business Performance Drivers - The recovery in the cottonseed business is a major factor contributing to the company's turnaround [3] - The gross profit from plant extraction products such as chili red, chili essence, and stevia glycosides has increased year-on-year [3] - The company is actively expanding into new product categories, including natural sweeteners and essential oils, aiming to achieve a target of ten world-leading products [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The third quarter is expected to be a slow season, but the company anticipates continued growth in product sales, particularly for chili red and chili essence [4] - The company holds approximately two-thirds of the market share for chili red products, with plans to deepen competitive advantages and expand product applications [4] - The strategy focuses on increasing market share through cost-effective solutions rather than monopolistic pricing, capitalizing on the growth potential in developing countries [4] Group 4: Operational Insights - The company has established a robust risk management framework for its cottonseed business, leading to improved operational stability [4] - A highly educated R&D team and proprietary extraction processes contribute to competitive production costs [5] - The company has acquired farmland in Zambia for cultivation, benefiting from lower land and labor costs compared to domestic operations [5] Group 5: Future Growth Expectations - The plant extraction industry is projected to maintain rapid natural growth, with the company aiming to enhance its market position in core products while nurturing second-tier products [6] - The company plans to leverage its established reputation and strong financial position to ensure supply chain security for downstream customers [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a performance recovery that exceeds expectations, with growth potential still present in the mid-term [1]. - The recovery in the cottonseed business is a significant factor contributing to the strong performance in the first half of the year, supported by favorable market conditions [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability from key products and a strategic plan that is progressing steadily [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects to achieve revenues of 6,872 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 9.1%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 show revenues of 6,994 million yuan and 7,064 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1.8% and 1.0% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The forecasted net profit for 2023 is 480 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%. However, a significant drop is expected in 2024, with a projected net profit of 94 million yuan, reflecting an 80.4% decline. A recovery is anticipated in 2025, with a net profit of 346 million yuan, representing a growth of 268.1% [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.99 yuan in 2023, dropping to 0.19 yuan in 2024, and recovering to 0.72 yuan in 2025 [1][9]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to be 13.7 in 2023, soaring to 70.0 in 2024, and then stabilizing at 19.0 in 2025 [1][9]. Market Conditions - The cottonseed market is showing a stable upward trend, which has positively impacted the company's performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers, including increased product volume, improved efficiency in overseas plantations, and a growing demand for health products [2].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Light Bio is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.46 to 3.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year change of -0.89% to +7.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 202 to 232 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 1.744 to 2.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to +16.2%, and a net profit of 93 to 123 million yuan, indicating a growth of 51.1% to 100.1% [1] - The recovery in the cottonseed business is the main driver for the strong performance in the first half of the year, supported by a favorable market environment [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The cottonseed market has shown a stable and positive trend, with the second quarter experiencing price fluctuations in soybeans and soybean meal due to US-China tariff disputes, which positively impacted cottonseed prices [1] - Key products in the plant extraction segment, such as chili red, chili essence, and steviol glycosides, have all seen a year-on-year increase in gross profit, demonstrating resilience despite lower prices [1] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from several growth drivers in the coming years, including increased production of tiered products, expansion of overseas planting bases, accelerated replacement by natural pigments, and growing demand for health products [1] - The company is a leading player in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability in key varieties and a strong growth trajectory for scaled products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to range from 3.46 to 3.76 billion yuan, while net profit is projected to significantly increase year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in its core business segments [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue between 3.46 billion and 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.89% to +7.71% [1] - The projected net profit for the same period is estimated to be between 202 million and 232 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to +16.2% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The cottonseed business is expected to recover profitability in the short term, while the plant extraction business shows positive long-term trends [1] - The company has implemented a strict lock-in operating model for its cottonseed business, which has led to a turnaround in profitability [1] - The plant extraction segment, particularly products like chili red and stevia glycosides, has seen a year-on-year increase in gross profit, indicating a favorable trend [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the FDA's plan to phase out petroleum-based synthetic food colorings by the end of 2026, which is expected to increase demand for natural colorants [1] - The prices of several plant extraction products are currently at relatively low levels, suggesting potential for stabilization and improvement [1] - The company aims to leverage its low-cost industrial production capabilities to efficiently replicate its successful multi-product development model [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 376 million, 493 million, and 604 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 299%, 31%, and 23% respectively [2] - The company has been upgraded to a "strongly recommended" rating based on its leading position in the plant extraction industry and its strategic growth plans [2]

Performance Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 202 million yuan and 232 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1][2] - The non-recurring gains and losses are estimated to impact the profit by approximately 28 million yuan [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 3,490.93 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate ranging from -0.89% to 7.71% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 174 million yuan and 204 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 117.40% to 154.88% [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The increase in overall performance is attributed to the growth in gross profit from plant-derived products such as chili red, chili extract, and steviol glycosides [1]

Core Insights - The mulberry leaf extract industry in China is rapidly developing due to the increasing demand for natural plant extracts and the medicinal and health benefits of mulberry leaves [1][6][22] - China is one of the richest countries in mulberry resources, with a complete industrial chain extending from mulberry cultivation to high-value extracts [1][4] - The market size for mulberry leaf extract is projected to grow from 199.17 million yuan in 2024 to 217.65 million yuan in 2025, with an industry output value expected to reach 300.65 million yuan [1][6] Industry Definition and Classification - Mulberry leaves (Folium Mori) are the dried leaves of the mulberry plant, known for their medicinal properties, including clearing lung heat and improving vision [2] - The main functional components of mulberry leaf extract include polyphenols, flavonoids, alkaloids, and polysaccharides, which are associated with antioxidant capabilities [2][4] Current Development Status - The mulberry leaf extract industry has seen a steady increase in demand due to rising health awareness and preference for natural products, leading to market expansion [4][6] - The production capacity of mulberry leaf extract in China is expected to grow from 834 tons in 2024 to 892 tons in 2025, with production increasing from 563 tons to 598.4 tons [4][6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the mulberry leaf extract industry includes mulberry cultivation and extraction production equipment, with raw material costs accounting for over 90% of the total cost [8][10] - The downstream applications of mulberry leaf extract include pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, health products, and food and beverages [8] Industry Development History - The plant extraction industry in China has a long history, with significant advancements in extraction methods since the 1990s, leading to a golden development period in the 21st century [15] Competitive Landscape - The mulberry leaf extract industry exhibits a clear technological stratification, with leading companies using proprietary technologies to dominate the high-end market [17][19] - Major companies in the industry include Hunan Xier Natural Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Hunan Huakang Biotechnology Co., Ltd., and Guilin Rhine Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [17][19] Industry Development Trends - The demand for mulberry leaf extract is expected to grow as consumers increasingly seek natural and healthy products, particularly in the fields of medicine, food, and health supplements [22]

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company held a performance briefing for the 2024 annual report on April 29, 2025, via online communication [4] - Participants included the chairman, general manager, board secretary, financial officer, and sponsor representative [4] Group 2: Market Expansion and Product Certification - The company has obtained the EU export certification for its products, which requires compliance with the European Pharmacopoeia (CEP) and on-site inspections [5] - The company aims to enhance its competitiveness in the EU market by improving production quality and collaborating with EU clients [5] Group 3: Revenue Composition and Market Share - The company's revenue is primarily derived from pharmaceutical raw materials, food additives, cosmetics, and health products [6] - The European market accounts for approximately 40% of exports, while the US, Japan, Australia, and Canada account for about 60% [6] - The NHDC product has captured over 27% of the company's main business revenue in the domestic food additive market [6] Group 4: Growth Drivers and Strategic Focus - Future growth in the plant extract industry is driven by increasing consumer health awareness and advancements in extraction technology [8] - The company plans to deepen its focus on both domestic and international markets, particularly in food additives and pharmaceutical raw materials [9] Group 5: Financial Performance and Profit Margins - The company's revenue increased by 27.78% year-on-year in 2024, attributed to the successful implementation of its strategic plan [7] - The overall gross margin for products increased in 2024, but is expected to decline in 2025 due to rising costs and market competition [10] Group 6: Production and R&D Updates - The company is currently optimizing production processes and has completed 11 R&D projects in 2024 [15] - The new production lines are expected to be fully operational by mid-2025, which will enhance production capacity [14] Group 7: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in gross margins as production lines stabilize and international trade conditions improve [12][13] - The market for Vitamin P products is expected to grow significantly due to rising health consciousness and expanding application areas [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit and earnings per share, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability despite revenue challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 109 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 183.7% [1]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.2266 yuan, up 212.6% year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The cottonseed business has returned to normal operations, while the plant extraction business has exceeded expectations [2]. - The plant extraction segment generated revenue of 867 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with a gross margin improvement of 2.15 percentage points [2]. - The cottonseed segment reported revenue of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, with a gross margin of approximately 6.1% [2]. Market Strategy - The company adopted a strategy of "price for volume," leading to increased sales volume and revenue growth in various product lines [3]. - The price of chili red pigment significantly decreased, resulting in a revenue increase of approximately 7% due to volume elasticity [3]. - The company capitalized on domestic raw material cost advantages to expand into overseas markets, with chili extract sales doubling and contributing to a revenue increase of about 24% [3]. Long-term Outlook - The company is focused on long-term advantages, expanding overseas planting bases, and making breakthroughs in new businesses such as traditional Chinese medicine and health products [3]. - The company anticipates maintaining high growth rates in performance as major products return to a cyclical uptrend [3]. Investment Recommendation - The company is a leading player in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability in key products and a strong growth trajectory in market share [4]. - The ongoing construction of the Zambia plantation is expected to further reduce costs, and the health product business shows significant potential for growth [4]. - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.67, 0.83, and 1.00 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.3X, 13.1X, and 10.9X, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for Q1 2025, with revenue slightly declining but significant growth in net profit, indicating a potential turning point in profitability driven by improved margins and successful product sales in the plant extraction segment [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 109 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 183.69% [1]. - The adjusted net profit was 96 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97.83% [1]. Business Segment Performance - The plant extraction business saw multiple products achieving historical sales highs, contributing 867 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13.78%, with a gross profit margin improvement of 2.15 percentage points [1][3]. - The cottonseed business rebounded, generating 760 million yuan in revenue, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 9.49%, but with a significant improvement in gross profit [1][2]. Specific Product Insights - Chili red sales increased by approximately 7% due to a rise in volume despite price adjustments [2]. - Chili extract revenue grew by about 24%, driven by a more than doubling of sales volume [2]. - Lutein sales increased by 50% in the food-grade segment, despite overall market oversupply [2]. - Stevia glycosides saw a revenue increase of approximately 55%, surpassing 80 million yuan, supported by innovative cost advantages [2]. Margin and Cost Management - The company's gross margin improved to 14.16%, and net margin reached 6.38%, with respective year-on-year increases of 5.95 and 4.15 percentage points [3]. - The company maintained strict cost management, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios showing mixed trends, indicating a focus on efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its cost advantages in the plant extraction business and the recovery in the cottonseed market, projecting net profits of 365 million, 457 million, and 564 million yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 288.51%, 25.18%, and 23.21% [3].