证券研究报告 仙坛股份 (002746 CH) 鸡肉销量稳健增长，盈利逆势高增 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | 农林牧渔 | 目标价(人民币): | 7.70 | 仙坛股份发布半年报，2025 年 H1 实现营收 25.40 亿元（yoy+5.24%）， 归母净利 1.37 亿元（yoy+344.55%），扣非净利 1.24 亿元（yoy+1041.13%）。 其中 Q2 实现营收 14.32 亿元（yoy+7.20%，qoq+29.23%），归母净利 8871.04 万元（yoy+273.76%，qoq+84.72%）。符合业绩预告预期。25H1 鸡肉价格延续承压，但公司销量增长叠加成本优势带动业绩仍录得亮眼表 现。白鸡产业链亏损扩散可能带动产能去化继而催化价格反转，看好公司产 能持续释放驱动的销量稳定增长、以及完全成本优势，维持"买入"评级。 鸡肉产品主业稳健增长，调理品持续放量 25H1 主产区鸡肉产品持续承压，Q1、Q2 主产区 ...

智通财经APP获悉，第一上海发布研报称，予中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，预测公司2025-2027年的收 入分别为1560亿元/1611亿元/1674亿元人民币;归母净利润分别为245亿元、250亿元和258亿元。该行给 予公司2026年10倍PE估值，目标价为29.0港元，较现价有24%的上涨空间。 上半年利润大幅增长 公司高度重视股东回报，上半年斥资26.1亿港元回购1.87亿股并注销，直接增厚每股收益;承诺2025年派 息率维持2024年水平;并宣布启动新一轮不低于30亿港元的回购计划，形成"持续分红+主动市值管理"组 合拳，充分彰显管理层对公司未来发展的坚定信心。 2025年上半年，全球电解铝市场供需表现为紧平衡。中国原铝产量约占全球产量的59.7%，原铝消费量 约占全球消费量的62.6%，同比较2024年上半年分别上浮0.2%和1.1%。电网、光伏、新能源汽车等领域 呈现不同程度的增长，对拉动国内需求贡献较大。预计下半年电解铝价格维持在20600-21300元/吨，氧 化铝维持在3200-3300元/区间，供需关系决定铝价整体易涨难跌趋势。 第一上海主要观点如下： 超30亿元回购 2025年上 ...

投资建议：预计2025-2027 年公司归母净利润为32.3/46.9/54.9 亿元,维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，产品及原料价格大幅波动，新项目进度不及预期。 本部气化平台升级改造，加强公司成本优势。公司发布投资建设气化平台升级改造项目的公告，项目立 足本部原煤消耗量不变进行气化装置替代，装置以煤为原料，经煤气化、净化后生产合成气；主要装置 包括气化装置、辅助生产装置和部分配套公用工程。项目建成投产后，主要产品生产规模为合成气总量 45.09 万Nm3/h。项目建设周期18 个月，预计总投资为30.39 亿元，建设资金由公司自有资金和银行贷 款解决，项目建成投产后预计年均实现营业收入36.65 亿元。中长期看，该项目对促进节能减排，降低 综合能耗，提高煤炭产业附加值，提升企业盈利能力，加快区域经济建设起到积极的促进和推动作用， 进一步加强公司产业链成本优势。 事件：公司发布2025 年半年报，报告期内公司实现营收157.64 亿元，同比-7%，实现归母净利润15.69 亿元，同比-29%；25Q2 公司实现营收79.92 亿元，同比-11%，实现归母净利润8.62 亿元，同比-26%。 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 永兴材料（002756） 2025 半年报点评：Q2 降本成效显著，下半年 价格弹性可观 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12,189 | 8,074 | 7,494 | 8,803 | 10,269 | | 同比（%） | (21.76) | (33.76) | (7.19) | 17.48 | 16.65 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,406.77 | 1,043.47 | 903.66 | 1,112.55 | 1,671.60 | | 同比（%） | (46.09) | (69.37) | (13.40) | 23.12 | 50.25 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 6.32 | 1.94 | 1.68 | 2.06 | 3.10 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 5.54 | 18.07 | 20.87 | 16.95 | 11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, achieving operating revenue of 23.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year [4][14] - In Q2 2025, the company generated operating revenue of 11.131 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.72%. The net profit for the same period was 1.175 billion yuan, up 13.72% year-on-year but down 25.07% quarter-on-quarter [4][14] - The increase in ethane costs has slightly impacted the company's performance, with the average price of ethane in the U.S. rising by 27.28% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [14] - The C3 product price spread has widened, leading to improved profitability in the C3 segment, with average price spreads for various products showing significant year-on-year increases [15] - The easing of tariffs is expected to stabilize raw material costs, reinforcing the company's cost advantages and strong profitability in core business [16] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.1 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, and 8.2 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.51 yuan, 1.97 yuan, and 2.43 yuan [17] Financial Data Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 23.46 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.744 billion yuan [4][14] - The projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 54.126 billion yuan, 67.454 billion yuan, and 78.681 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 18.57%, 24.62%, and 16.64% [18] - The projected net profits for the same years are 5.097 billion yuan, 6.622 billion yuan, and 8.183 billion yuan, with growth rates of -16.06%, 29.92%, and 23.58% [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Earnings per share were reported at $0.62 with EBITDA of $715 million, showing sequential improvement due to less downtime and lower feedstock costs [18] - Cash returns to shareholders exceeded $500 million, with an increase in ordinary dividends and continued share repurchases [18][24] - The company is targeting approximately $200 million in reductions in working capital for 2025, alongside fixed cost reductions of $200 million [14][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment generated EBITDA of $318 million, a more than 25% improvement from the previous quarter, driven by higher integrated polyethylene margins [26] - The Intermediates and Derivatives segment reported EBITDA of $290 million, an increase of $79 million, primarily due to improved margins for styrene and propylene oxide [32] - The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment maintained EBITDA at $40 million, despite challenges in automotive markets [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American polyethylene industry saw domestic sales volumes rebound to the highest levels since 2022, with a decline in producer inventories by three days of sales during the second quarter [27][40] - In Europe, lower naphtha and LPG feedstock costs improved margins, while capacity rationalizations helped balance supply and demand [29][41] - In Asia, near-term capacity additions continue to pressure regional supply and demand balances, but there is cautious optimism regarding China's stimulus programs [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on growing and upgrading core businesses, with a strategic emphasis on low-cost feedstocks in North America and the Middle East, while increasing access to circular and renewable feedstocks in Europe [9][10] - The planned sale of European assets is expected to enhance cash flow and reduce recurring capital expenditures [20][46] - The company is prioritizing sustaining capital investments to ensure operational reliability while deferring certain growth investments until market conditions improve [17][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating the current cycle and emphasized the importance of cash conversion and disciplined investments to secure dividends [56][59] - The company anticipates improved olefins margins and strong demand in the packaging business, driven by changing consumer behavior [78] - There is cautious optimism regarding the potential for price increases in polyethylene due to improved domestic demand and low global inventories [53][70] Other Important Information - The company is on track to achieve a run rate of $600 million in incremental cash flow for 2025, exceeding the previous target of $500 million [16][44] - The company is closely monitoring evolving tariffs and global trade flows, which could present both risks and opportunities [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sequential lift in O and P Americas due to downtime and price increases - Management expects an improvement of $85 million in Q3 due to less downtime and improved operating rates [49] Question: Safety of dividends amid cash flow challenges - The company confirmed the Q3 dividend of $1.37 per share, emphasizing strong liquidity and a focus on maintaining investment-grade ratings [56][58] Question: Clarification on 2026 CapEx forecast and precious metals opportunity - The 2026 CapEx forecast does not include the potential benefit from the European asset sale, and precious metal sales contributed $35 million in Q2 [62][67] Question: Cash flow generation expectations for 2025 - Management anticipates strong cash flow generation in the second half of the year, with a target of 80% cash conversion [72] Question: Third quarter dynamics in Intermediates and Derivatives segment - Expectations for the third quarter are relatively flat, with no material improvements anticipated [86] Question: Impact of China's new program on joint ventures - Management noted that restructuring in China's chemical industry is expected, but the company will focus on controllable factors [90] Question: Delay of Mooritech II project - The decision to delay was influenced by market dynamics and the need for prudent capital allocation [92][95] Question: Current state of pyrolysis market - Pyrolysis margins remain high due to demand exceeding supply, with positive regulatory momentum expected [98]

Group 1: Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 8.14[12] - Hualing Steel's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 20.32 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.54 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.72[12] - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 17.28 billion in 2024 to CNY 21.01 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.97[12] Group 2: Construction and Transportation - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 72.10 billion in 2024 to CNY 82.86 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.35[12] - YTO Express's net profit is expected to decrease from CNY 40.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 35.39 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.03[12] - China Merchants Highway's net profit is projected to be CNY 55 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.56[12] Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 17.94 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.56[12] - Funiu Power's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 28.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 9.18[12] - Huajin's net profit is projected to recover to CNY 0.92 billion in 2025 after a loss of CNY 27.95 billion in 2024[12] Group 4: Strategic Metals and New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten's strategic metal segments are expected to contribute 79% to profits in 2024, with a focus on tungsten and rare earths[21] - Zhongcai Technology's special glass fiber is projected to see significant demand growth due to AI hardware requirements, with expected profits of CNY 0.2 billion in 2024[30] - The company anticipates a profit contribution from special glass fiber of CNY 7.2 billion by 2026[30]

Summary of the Conference Call on YK Medical Industry Overview - The disposable glove industry is currently in a weak equilibrium state after experiencing a demand surge during the pandemic, with future demand growth expected to remain in the low single digits, specifically around 2%-3% overall and approximately 6% for nitrile gloves [2][5] - Major manufacturers in China and Malaysia account for 60% of global supply, with the US demand representing 36% and combined US and Europe demand around 60% [2][4] - The US 301 tariffs have shifted Chinese production capacity to non-US regions, with the US market now primarily supplied by Malaysia [2][4][7] Company Insights: YK Medical - YK Medical has a significant cost advantage with a total cost of approximately $13.5-$14 per box, lower than Chinese competitors at $15.5 per box and Malaysian manufacturers at $18-$20 per box [2][6] - The company sources 70%-80% of its raw materials internally and utilizes clean coal energy to reduce production costs, achieving production line efficiency that exceeds Malaysian competitors by over 50% [2][3][6] - YK Medical's operational profit for 2024 is projected to be 900 million RMB, with a similar expectation for 2025, indicating stabilization and slight improvement in performance [2][10] Future Production and Market Coverage - YK Medical's Southeast Asia factory is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, which will enhance its coverage of the US market [2][11] - The total operational profit is anticipated to reach 1.5 billion RMB in 2026, driven by the new production capacity and a projected decrease in US market prices from $22 to around $20 per box [2][11] Competitive Landscape - YK Medical holds approximately 20% of the global disposable glove market share, with a mid-term target of increasing this to 30% [2][12] - The company is positioned to maintain its leading advantage in a weak supply-demand market due to its low costs and efficient production capabilities [2][5][6] Tariff Impact - The US 301 tariffs have resulted in a total tariff of over 80% on Chinese exports of disposable medical products to the US, significantly affecting pricing dynamics [2][7] - The anticipated new production in Southeast Asia is expected to alleviate some of the pricing pressures in the future [2][7] Market Pricing - Current pricing in non-US regions is around $15 per box, while prices in the US market are approximately $22 per box due to higher costs from Malaysian suppliers [2][9] Financial Projections and Valuation - YK Medical's operational profit for 2024 is expected to be around 200 million RMB in the worst quarter, with a stable projection of 900 million RMB for the year [2][10] - The company estimates a market capitalization target of 28 billion RMB based on its operational efficiency and cash reserves, with potential for higher valuation if US market conditions improve [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has a leading cost advantage in the C2 and C3 light hydrocarbon integration layout, with significant cost advantages in ethylene production from ethane cracking. The company has established a global ethane supply chain through strategic investments in U.S. ports and VLEC fleets, positioning itself for a new growth phase with upcoming project launches in ethylene production [1][17]. - The ethylene and propylene industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with structural contradictions in the high-end polyethylene market creating significant opportunities for domestic production to replace imports. The company is actively expanding its high-end polyethylene product offerings, which are anticipated to drive its next growth phase [3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has successfully integrated C2 and C3 light hydrocarbons, achieving a cost advantage over peers. The ethylene production process from ethane is notably cost-effective, and the company has built a robust global supply chain for ethane, ensuring a steady supply for its production needs [1][17]. Industry Outlook - The ethylene and propylene industry is projected to experience a recovery, with new capacity expected to come online in 2025-2026. The industry is currently facing a structural imbalance characterized by low-end oversupply and high-end shortages, particularly in high-end polyethylene products, which are heavily reliant on imports [3][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 6.3 billion, 7.4 billion, and 9.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 18.4%, and 23.6%. The expected EPS for the same years is 1.86, 2.20, and 2.72 RMB per share [5][11]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the ethylene market, with a current capacity of 2.5 million tons and additional capacity expected to come online by 2026-2027. The strategic focus on high-end polyethylene products is anticipated to fill domestic supply gaps and enhance the company's competitive edge [3][19][23].

Core Viewpoint - BYD, as a battery-centric automotive company, continues to strengthen its battery capabilities while achieving significant innovations in battery storage and charging technologies [2][7]. Group 1: Innovations in Battery Technology - BYD has recently received a patent for a heat exchange plate design that enhances thermal management in batteries, allowing for better temperature control and improved safety and performance [2]. - The company has also developed a wireless charging system that increases energy utilization and reduces charging losses, indicating its ambition to lead in this technology area [2]. - In 2024, BYD plans to invest 53.195 billion yuan in R&D, having already secured over 2,500 new patents this year, averaging more than 400 patents per month [2]. Group 2: Charging Infrastructure and Technology - BYD's new super e-platform supports a maximum voltage of 1000V and a charging rate of up to 10C, surpassing the current market standard of 5C [3]. - The company has introduced megawatt flash charging technology, enabling 2 kilometers of range from just 1 second of charging and 400 kilometers from 5 minutes of charging, although initial deployment is limited due to the number of charging stations [4]. - Collaborations with third-party charging companies and major operators like Southern Power Grid and Sinopec are underway to expand the megawatt flash charging infrastructure [4]. Group 3: Market Performance and Competitive Advantage - The deployment of megawatt charging stations is expected to increase utilization rates by 50% and reduce the cost per kilowatt-hour by 30%, providing new revenue growth opportunities for BYD [5]. - The introduction of the Han L and Tang L models, equipped with megawatt flash charging technology, has led to sales exceeding 10,000 units in their first month [5]. - BYD's blade battery technology has reduced costs by approximately 20% and is reported to be 5% cheaper than Tesla's lithium iron phosphate cells, giving BYD a competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [5]. Group 4: European Market Expansion - BYD's Dolphin Surf model is priced at £18,650 (approximately 188,000 yuan), making it one of the cheapest new cars in the UK, which has significantly boosted its sales in Europe [6]. - In April 2025, BYD's electric vehicle sales in Europe surged by nearly 170% to 7,231 units, surpassing Tesla's sales growth during the same period [6].