证券研究报告 晨光生物 (300138 CH) 业绩加速修复，植提份额提升 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 增持 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 目标价(人民币): | 17.76 | | --- | --- | | 吕若晨 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570525050002 | lvruochen@htsc.com | | SFC No. BEE828 | +(86) 755 8249 2388 | 倪欣雨 研究员 SAC No. S0570523080004 SFC No. BVQ058 nixinyu@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 17.76 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 25 日) | 14.20 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 6,860 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 178.46 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 7.00-14.20 | | BVPS (人民币) | 6.75 | 股价走势图 (6) 20 47 73 99 Aug- ...

Core Viewpoint - A drying equipment explosion occurred at a company's facility on August 21, 2025, resulting in one fatality and multiple injuries, while the company is actively cooperating with government authorities for emergency response and investigation [1] Incident Summary - The explosion took place in a drying workshop, leading to one death, three serious injuries, and four minor injuries [1] - The company has initiated an emergency response plan and formed a leadership group to manage the situation and assist in rescue efforts [1] - The specific cause of the accident is currently under investigation, with the company fully cooperating with relevant government departments [1] Financial Impact - Preliminary estimates indicate property damage of approximately 2 million yuan due to the incident [1] - The company asserts that this accident will not have a significant adverse impact on its future production and operations [1] Production Process - The company's plant extraction production process includes several stages: pretreatment, extraction, separation, purification, concentration, drying, and packaging [1] - The incident occurred in one of the drying workshops, affecting the assets related to that specific area [1]

Core Insights - The approval status of RebM2, a steviol glycoside, in the domestic market has garnered investor attention, with the company actively pushing for subsequent approval processes after the public consultation phase ended on August 14 [1] - RebM2 has received GRAS certification from the FDA, allowing it to be legally sold in the U.S. food and beverage market, potentially becoming a new profit growth point for the company [1] - RebM2, developed through enzyme conversion, offers superior sweetness characteristics, a purer taste, better stability, and improved solubility compared to existing rare monomer components, making it a promising natural sweetener [1] Industry Developments - The industrialization of RM2 is seen as a milestone in the evolution of steviol glycosides, with RM2 being approximately 200 times sweeter than sucrose and exhibiting a favorable sweetness release curve [2] - RM2's formulation can optimize costs and enhance taste in reduced-sugar recipes, breaking through traditional limitations and expanding the market boundaries for steviol glycosides [2] - The enzyme conversion process has significantly improved the yield of rare monomers to over 75%, marking a shift from resource-dependent to technology-driven production in the natural sweetener industry [2] Company Innovations - RM2 is part of a broader strategy in synthetic biology, with the company also achieving breakthroughs in the complete synthesis of monk fruit sweet glycosides and advancements in the field of left-handed β-galactomannan [3] - The enzyme conversion method demonstrates the feasibility and application value of synthetic biology in the plant extract sector, enhancing supply chain stability and aligning with sustainable development goals [3] - The company is exploring a strategic transformation towards becoming a technology-driven health consumption technology enterprise through a dual approach of natural extraction and biological synthesis [3]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - The company is focused on the replacement of synthetic colorants with natural colorants, which presents significant opportunities for the natural colorant industry [2][3] - The company has established subsidiaries in India, Zambia, and Myanmar for capacity expansion and raw material processing [2][4] - The company currently has no refinancing needs but will disclose any future requirements promptly [3] Group 2: Product Development and Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes enhancing its technical advantages, cost advantages, and solution-providing capabilities to maintain product competitiveness [3] - New product developments include ginger yellow pigment, with ongoing trials to improve processes and reduce costs [4][5] - The company is addressing the stability issues of natural colorants to facilitate their replacement of synthetic colorants [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Financial Performance - The market for natural colorants replacing synthetic colorants is expected to evolve gradually, with a need for several years to reach a balance between supply and demand [3][4] - The company aims to capture a larger market share, particularly in products like capsicum red and lutein, while tomato lycopene will depend on cost reductions and market demand [3][4] - The company has seen significant improvements in gross margins for capsicum red due to reduced raw material costs [4][5] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company plans to expand its health food business through partnerships, leveraging its technical and production strengths [6][7] - The company is exploring the application of plant-based gels in the health food sector [7] - The company is focused on building raw material strategic bases in countries like Myanmar, India, and Zambia to enhance cost advantages [7]

Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Natural colorants and plant extracts Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: Expected to be between 174 million to 204 million CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 117% to 154% [2][3] - **Revenue**: Projected revenue for H1 2025 is between 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of approximately -1% to 8% [3] - **Q2 Performance**: Revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -1% to 16% [2][3] Business Segments Cotton Seed Business - **Performance**: Achieved profitability in H1 2025, significantly contributing to overall performance improvement [5] - **Market Strategy**: Utilized a locking procurement strategy to mitigate price fluctuations, leading to stable cash flow and profit [5] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated seasonal decline in Q3, but expected recovery in Q4 with the new processing season [5] Plant Extract Business - **Recovery**: Q2 2025 showed a strong recovery despite price declines in key products; driven by rapid growth in downstream demand [6] - **Market Trends**: The FDA's ban on synthetic colorants is expected to accelerate the shift towards natural colorants, presenting significant market opportunities [6][7] - **Product Development**: Transitioning from a production company to a solution provider, expanding applications in various sectors [9] Product Highlights - **Top Performers**: Stevia, silymarin, and Sichuan pepper extract showed strong performance in H1 2025 [4][10] - **Market Share Goals**: Aiming to increase market share of chili red to over 80% through optimized processes and equipment [4][15] Regulatory Impact - **FDA Regulations**: The FDA's plan to ban certain synthetic colorants by the end of 2026 is expected to create a global shift towards natural colorants [7][8] - **Market Dynamics**: Natural colorants are currently priced several times higher than synthetic alternatives, indicating substantial replacement potential [7][8] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Currently holds approximately 70% market share in chili red, with plans to increase to over 80% [15] - **Competitors**: Faces competition from breeding and planting companies and Indian counterparts in the chili extract market [15] Future Growth Expectations - **Long-term Projections**: Anticipates stable growth in existing products with a target of 10% to 15% annual growth, while new products may grow at 20% to 30% [20] - **Strategic Initiatives**: Plans to expand into natural sweeteners and essential oils, aiming for a leading global market position [10][20] Operational Advantages - **Cost Efficiency**: Lower production costs due to optimized processes and strategic raw material sourcing across multiple regions [22] - **R&D Capabilities**: Strong R&D team with over 100 members, including PhDs, enhancing product quality and production efficiency [23] Challenges and Mitigation Strategies - **Supply Chain Risks**: Potential price increases in raw materials and the need for supplier trust are identified risks [24] - **Response Measures**: Expanding base locations domestically and internationally to ensure stable supply and mitigate risks [24] Conclusion - **Market Leadership**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for natural colorants and plant extracts, supported by strong financial performance, strategic initiatives, and regulatory tailwinds [26]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of -0.89% to 7.71% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 202 million and 232 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 102.33% to 132.38% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 174 million and 204 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 117.40% to 154.88% compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Business Performance Drivers - The recovery in the cottonseed business is a major factor contributing to the company's turnaround [3] - The gross profit from plant extraction products such as chili red, chili essence, and stevia glycosides has increased year-on-year [3] - The company is actively expanding into new product categories, including natural sweeteners and essential oils, aiming to achieve a target of ten world-leading products [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The third quarter is expected to be a slow season, but the company anticipates continued growth in product sales, particularly for chili red and chili essence [4] - The company holds approximately two-thirds of the market share for chili red products, with plans to deepen competitive advantages and expand product applications [4] - The strategy focuses on increasing market share through cost-effective solutions rather than monopolistic pricing, capitalizing on the growth potential in developing countries [4] Group 4: Operational Insights - The company has established a robust risk management framework for its cottonseed business, leading to improved operational stability [4] - A highly educated R&D team and proprietary extraction processes contribute to competitive production costs [5] - The company has acquired farmland in Zambia for cultivation, benefiting from lower land and labor costs compared to domestic operations [5] Group 5: Future Growth Expectations - The plant extraction industry is projected to maintain rapid natural growth, with the company aiming to enhance its market position in core products while nurturing second-tier products [6] - The company plans to leverage its established reputation and strong financial position to ensure supply chain security for downstream customers [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a performance recovery that exceeds expectations, with growth potential still present in the mid-term [1]. - The recovery in the cottonseed business is a significant factor contributing to the strong performance in the first half of the year, supported by favorable market conditions [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability from key products and a strategic plan that is progressing steadily [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects to achieve revenues of 6,872 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 9.1%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 show revenues of 6,994 million yuan and 7,064 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1.8% and 1.0% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The forecasted net profit for 2023 is 480 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%. However, a significant drop is expected in 2024, with a projected net profit of 94 million yuan, reflecting an 80.4% decline. A recovery is anticipated in 2025, with a net profit of 346 million yuan, representing a growth of 268.1% [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.99 yuan in 2023, dropping to 0.19 yuan in 2024, and recovering to 0.72 yuan in 2025 [1][9]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to be 13.7 in 2023, soaring to 70.0 in 2024, and then stabilizing at 19.0 in 2025 [1][9]. Market Conditions - The cottonseed market is showing a stable upward trend, which has positively impacted the company's performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers, including increased product volume, improved efficiency in overseas plantations, and a growing demand for health products [2].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Light Bio is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.46 to 3.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year change of -0.89% to +7.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 202 to 232 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 1.744 to 2.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to +16.2%, and a net profit of 93 to 123 million yuan, indicating a growth of 51.1% to 100.1% [1] - The recovery in the cottonseed business is the main driver for the strong performance in the first half of the year, supported by a favorable market environment [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The cottonseed market has shown a stable and positive trend, with the second quarter experiencing price fluctuations in soybeans and soybean meal due to US-China tariff disputes, which positively impacted cottonseed prices [1] - Key products in the plant extraction segment, such as chili red, chili essence, and steviol glycosides, have all seen a year-on-year increase in gross profit, demonstrating resilience despite lower prices [1] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from several growth drivers in the coming years, including increased production of tiered products, expansion of overseas planting bases, accelerated replacement by natural pigments, and growing demand for health products [1] - The company is a leading player in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability in key varieties and a strong growth trajectory for scaled products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to range from 3.46 to 3.76 billion yuan, while net profit is projected to significantly increase year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in its core business segments [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue between 3.46 billion and 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.89% to +7.71% [1] - The projected net profit for the same period is estimated to be between 202 million and 232 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to +16.2% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The cottonseed business is expected to recover profitability in the short term, while the plant extraction business shows positive long-term trends [1] - The company has implemented a strict lock-in operating model for its cottonseed business, which has led to a turnaround in profitability [1] - The plant extraction segment, particularly products like chili red and stevia glycosides, has seen a year-on-year increase in gross profit, indicating a favorable trend [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the FDA's plan to phase out petroleum-based synthetic food colorings by the end of 2026, which is expected to increase demand for natural colorants [1] - The prices of several plant extraction products are currently at relatively low levels, suggesting potential for stabilization and improvement [1] - The company aims to leverage its low-cost industrial production capabilities to efficiently replicate its successful multi-product development model [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 376 million, 493 million, and 604 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 299%, 31%, and 23% respectively [2] - The company has been upgraded to a "strongly recommended" rating based on its leading position in the plant extraction industry and its strategic growth plans [2]

Performance Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 202 million yuan and 232 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1][2] - The non-recurring gains and losses are estimated to impact the profit by approximately 28 million yuan [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 3,490.93 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate ranging from -0.89% to 7.71% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 174 million yuan and 204 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 117.40% to 154.88% [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The increase in overall performance is attributed to the growth in gross profit from plant-derived products such as chili red, chili extract, and steviol glycosides [1]