== 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 26 日 晨光生物 (300138) 业绩符合预期，植提新品变化积极 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 撸持(维持) 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com | 市场数据: | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 14.20 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 14.44/6.91 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.92 | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | 5,656 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,883.56/12,441.07 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 6.75 | | 资产负债率% | 64.40 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 483/398 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 相关研究 证券分析师 몸昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@sws ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Light Bio Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to the food and health supplement industry, specifically focusing on Morning Light Bio, a company involved in the production of natural colorants and health products. Key Points and Arguments Sales and Growth - The company experienced accelerated growth in Q2 due to a low base effect, with chili extract sales expected to reach 3,000 tons for the year, having sold approximately 1,400 tons in the first half [2][3] - Vitamin C sales grew rapidly due to the launch of a new production line, although revenue growth was limited by declining prices from lower costs [2][3] - Sales of Sichuan pepper extract continued to grow rapidly even in the off-season, with gross margins gradually recovering [2][3] - The stevia market shows significant potential, with expected annual revenue of 300 million yuan, bolstered by process advantages and the approval of a by-product for use as a feed additive [2][3] Pricing and Supply Dynamics - In 2024, the price of chili red is expected to be at historical lows due to a bountiful harvest, but gross margins are anticipated to recover significantly [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its customer base and promoting the use of natural colorants over synthetic ones, with expectations for chili red prices to recover depending on procurement plans [2][3] - The supply of chili extract is expected to grow by over 50% in 2024, with even faster growth anticipated in 2025, despite potential price increases in 2026 due to ample inventory [2][3][6] Market Competition and Strategy - The company has seen a rapid increase in overseas market share due to a significant drop in domestic raw material costs, with chili extract sales growing over 50% in 2024 [6][8] - The pricing trend for chili red and chili extract is currently at the bottom of the price cycle, with expectations for a recovery in prices based on agricultural product cycles [7][8] - The competitive landscape is not driven by intensified competition but rather by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with domestic products gaining market share at the expense of Indian competitors [6][8] Product Categories and Future Outlook - The company categorizes its customers into three main segments: food, feed additives, and health food enterprises, with food enterprises making up the largest share [9] - The lutein industry is currently facing an oversupply situation, leading to low prices, but the company is optimizing its strategy by prioritizing food-grade products and expanding overseas planting bases [10][11] - The health supplement business is rapidly developing, with total production capacity expected to reach 3 billion capsules, and projected revenues of 200 million yuan in 2025 [16][17] OEM and Brand Development - The OEM business primarily serves large overseas health food companies and aims to expand its scale, targeting over 1 billion yuan in revenue [18] - The company is in the early stages of developing its own brand, exploring various channels and partnerships, with plans to increase investment once a suitable model is identified [19] Profitability and Risk Management - The company emphasizes overall profitability rather than focusing solely on revenue size, with a target profit level of around 100 million yuan per product [15] - The cottonseed business is recovering from a low point, with a focus on stable operations and risk management to ensure profitability [13][14] Other Important Insights - The company is actively working on securing raw material supply chains globally, with production bases in regions like Xinjiang, Yunnan, and overseas in Zambia and India [12] - The overall market environment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2025, with stable demand growth anticipated for the following year [14]

Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Natural colorants and plant extracts Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: Expected to be between 174 million to 204 million CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 117% to 154% [2][3] - **Revenue**: Projected revenue for H1 2025 is between 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of approximately -1% to 8% [3] - **Q2 Performance**: Revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -1% to 16% [2][3] Business Segments Cotton Seed Business - **Performance**: Achieved profitability in H1 2025, significantly contributing to overall performance improvement [5] - **Market Strategy**: Utilized a locking procurement strategy to mitigate price fluctuations, leading to stable cash flow and profit [5] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated seasonal decline in Q3, but expected recovery in Q4 with the new processing season [5] Plant Extract Business - **Recovery**: Q2 2025 showed a strong recovery despite price declines in key products; driven by rapid growth in downstream demand [6] - **Market Trends**: The FDA's ban on synthetic colorants is expected to accelerate the shift towards natural colorants, presenting significant market opportunities [6][7] - **Product Development**: Transitioning from a production company to a solution provider, expanding applications in various sectors [9] Product Highlights - **Top Performers**: Stevia, silymarin, and Sichuan pepper extract showed strong performance in H1 2025 [4][10] - **Market Share Goals**: Aiming to increase market share of chili red to over 80% through optimized processes and equipment [4][15] Regulatory Impact - **FDA Regulations**: The FDA's plan to ban certain synthetic colorants by the end of 2026 is expected to create a global shift towards natural colorants [7][8] - **Market Dynamics**: Natural colorants are currently priced several times higher than synthetic alternatives, indicating substantial replacement potential [7][8] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Currently holds approximately 70% market share in chili red, with plans to increase to over 80% [15] - **Competitors**: Faces competition from breeding and planting companies and Indian counterparts in the chili extract market [15] Future Growth Expectations - **Long-term Projections**: Anticipates stable growth in existing products with a target of 10% to 15% annual growth, while new products may grow at 20% to 30% [20] - **Strategic Initiatives**: Plans to expand into natural sweeteners and essential oils, aiming for a leading global market position [10][20] Operational Advantages - **Cost Efficiency**: Lower production costs due to optimized processes and strategic raw material sourcing across multiple regions [22] - **R&D Capabilities**: Strong R&D team with over 100 members, including PhDs, enhancing product quality and production efficiency [23] Challenges and Mitigation Strategies - **Supply Chain Risks**: Potential price increases in raw materials and the need for supplier trust are identified risks [24] - **Response Measures**: Expanding base locations domestically and internationally to ensure stable supply and mitigate risks [24] Conclusion - **Market Leadership**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for natural colorants and plant extracts, supported by strong financial performance, strategic initiatives, and regulatory tailwinds [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook for the food and beverage industry in 2025, with a focus on growth sectors such as beverages, snacks, and pet food, while highlighting the stable performance of high-end liquor and regional leaders [1][15]. Core Insights - The financial reporting season has concluded, showing a mixed performance across the industry, with high-end liquor under pressure and a stable overall sales performance for mass-market products in April [1][15]. - Key companies are expected to see improvements in Q2, particularly in dairy and snack sectors, while the liquor segment continues to face challenges [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of shareholder meetings as potential catalysts for positive changes within companies [15]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Shede Liquor is experiencing significant pressure in Q2, with a notable increase in demand for its main products in banquet settings, but still facing challenges in business scenarios [2][10]. - Water Well is also under pressure in Q2, with a clear decline in seasonal demand, but is expanding its store network significantly [2][10]. - Yili Group is showing signs of improvement in Q2, driven by strong sales in infant and adult milk powder products [2][11]. - Zhongchong Co. is maintaining high growth in its proprietary brands and expanding overseas production capacity [3][11]. - Ximai Foods is achieving rapid online growth and improving gross margins, with a focus on maintaining double-digit growth offline [3][12]. - New Dairy is performing well in the low-temperature segment, with a strong growth trajectory expected [3][13]. - Morning Light Bio is seeing a recovery in core products and is focusing on diversified development strategies [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors, particularly in liquor, dairy, snacks, and pet food, with specific recommendations for companies like Guizhou Moutai and Yili Group [7][16]. - It highlights the potential for improved sales and structural changes in Qingdao Beer and emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery for brands like Nongfu Spring [7][16]. - The report also recommends strong players in the seasoning sector, such as Haitian Flavoring, and suggests monitoring companies like Zhongchong Co. for their overseas expansion capabilities [7][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit and earnings per share, indicating strong operational efficiency and profitability despite revenue challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 109 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 183.7% [1]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.2266 yuan, up 212.6% year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The cottonseed business has returned to normal operations, while the plant extraction business has exceeded expectations [2]. - The plant extraction segment generated revenue of 867 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with a gross margin improvement of 2.15 percentage points [2]. - The cottonseed segment reported revenue of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, with a gross margin of approximately 6.1% [2]. Market Strategy - The company adopted a strategy of "price for volume," leading to increased sales volume and revenue growth in various product lines [3]. - The price of chili red pigment significantly decreased, resulting in a revenue increase of approximately 7% due to volume elasticity [3]. - The company capitalized on domestic raw material cost advantages to expand into overseas markets, with chili extract sales doubling and contributing to a revenue increase of about 24% [3]. Long-term Outlook - The company is focused on long-term advantages, expanding overseas planting bases, and making breakthroughs in new businesses such as traditional Chinese medicine and health products [3]. - The company anticipates maintaining high growth rates in performance as major products return to a cyclical uptrend [3]. Investment Recommendation - The company is a leading player in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability in key products and a strong growth trajectory in market share [4]. - The ongoing construction of the Zambia plantation is expected to further reduce costs, and the health product business shows significant potential for growth [4]. - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.67, 0.83, and 1.00 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.3X, 13.1X, and 10.9X, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [晨Ta光bl生e_物Sto(c3k0A0n1d3Ra8n)k] 投资评级 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] Q1 业绩大增，反转趋势确立 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 28 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma公ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 17.16 亿元， 同比-0.92%；归母净利润 1.09 亿元，同比+183.69%；扣非归母净利润 9592 万元，同比+97.83%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 上次评级 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 收入表现平稳，多款产品销量创历史新高。分板块看，Q1 植提业务实 现收入 8.67 亿元，同比+13.78%；棉籽业务实现收入 7.60 亿元，同比 -9.49%。植提业务中，多款产品以量补价，辣椒红收入同比+7%，销 量快速增长，销售价格随成本相 ...