证券研究报告 晨光生物 (300138 CH) 业绩加速修复，植提份额提升 华泰研究 中报点评 投资评级(维持): 增持 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 目标价(人民币): | 17.76 | | --- | --- | | 吕若晨 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570525050002 | lvruochen@htsc.com | | SFC No. BEE828 | +(86) 755 8249 2388 | 倪欣雨 研究员 SAC No. S0570523080004 SFC No. BVQ058 nixinyu@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 17.76 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 25 日) | 14.20 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 6,860 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 178.46 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 7.00-14.20 | | BVPS (人民币) | 6.75 | 股价走势图 (6) 20 47 73 99 Aug- ...

== 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 26 日 晨光生物 (300138) 业绩符合预期，植提新品变化积极 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 撸持(维持) 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com | 市场数据: | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 14.20 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 14.44/6.91 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.92 | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | 5,656 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,883.56/12,441.07 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 6.75 | | 资产负债率% | 64.40 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 483/398 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 年内股价与大盘对比走势： 相关研究 证券分析师 몸昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@sws ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - The company is focused on the replacement of synthetic colorants with natural colorants, which presents significant opportunities for the natural colorant industry [2][3] - The company has established subsidiaries in India, Zambia, and Myanmar for capacity expansion and raw material processing [2][4] - The company currently has no refinancing needs but will disclose any future requirements promptly [3] Group 2: Product Development and Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes enhancing its technical advantages, cost advantages, and solution-providing capabilities to maintain product competitiveness [3] - New product developments include ginger yellow pigment, with ongoing trials to improve processes and reduce costs [4][5] - The company is addressing the stability issues of natural colorants to facilitate their replacement of synthetic colorants [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Financial Performance - The market for natural colorants replacing synthetic colorants is expected to evolve gradually, with a need for several years to reach a balance between supply and demand [3][4] - The company aims to capture a larger market share, particularly in products like capsicum red and lutein, while tomato lycopene will depend on cost reductions and market demand [3][4] - The company has seen significant improvements in gross margins for capsicum red due to reduced raw material costs [4][5] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company plans to expand its health food business through partnerships, leveraging its technical and production strengths [6][7] - The company is exploring the application of plant-based gels in the health food sector [7] - The company is focused on building raw material strategic bases in countries like Myanmar, India, and Zambia to enhance cost advantages [7]

Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Light Bio Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to the food and health supplement industry, specifically focusing on Morning Light Bio, a company involved in the production of natural colorants and health products. Key Points and Arguments Sales and Growth - The company experienced accelerated growth in Q2 due to a low base effect, with chili extract sales expected to reach 3,000 tons for the year, having sold approximately 1,400 tons in the first half [2][3] - Vitamin C sales grew rapidly due to the launch of a new production line, although revenue growth was limited by declining prices from lower costs [2][3] - Sales of Sichuan pepper extract continued to grow rapidly even in the off-season, with gross margins gradually recovering [2][3] - The stevia market shows significant potential, with expected annual revenue of 300 million yuan, bolstered by process advantages and the approval of a by-product for use as a feed additive [2][3] Pricing and Supply Dynamics - In 2024, the price of chili red is expected to be at historical lows due to a bountiful harvest, but gross margins are anticipated to recover significantly [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its customer base and promoting the use of natural colorants over synthetic ones, with expectations for chili red prices to recover depending on procurement plans [2][3] - The supply of chili extract is expected to grow by over 50% in 2024, with even faster growth anticipated in 2025, despite potential price increases in 2026 due to ample inventory [2][3][6] Market Competition and Strategy - The company has seen a rapid increase in overseas market share due to a significant drop in domestic raw material costs, with chili extract sales growing over 50% in 2024 [6][8] - The pricing trend for chili red and chili extract is currently at the bottom of the price cycle, with expectations for a recovery in prices based on agricultural product cycles [7][8] - The competitive landscape is not driven by intensified competition but rather by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with domestic products gaining market share at the expense of Indian competitors [6][8] Product Categories and Future Outlook - The company categorizes its customers into three main segments: food, feed additives, and health food enterprises, with food enterprises making up the largest share [9] - The lutein industry is currently facing an oversupply situation, leading to low prices, but the company is optimizing its strategy by prioritizing food-grade products and expanding overseas planting bases [10][11] - The health supplement business is rapidly developing, with total production capacity expected to reach 3 billion capsules, and projected revenues of 200 million yuan in 2025 [16][17] OEM and Brand Development - The OEM business primarily serves large overseas health food companies and aims to expand its scale, targeting over 1 billion yuan in revenue [18] - The company is in the early stages of developing its own brand, exploring various channels and partnerships, with plans to increase investment once a suitable model is identified [19] Profitability and Risk Management - The company emphasizes overall profitability rather than focusing solely on revenue size, with a target profit level of around 100 million yuan per product [15] - The cottonseed business is recovering from a low point, with a focus on stable operations and risk management to ensure profitability [13][14] Other Important Insights - The company is actively working on securing raw material supply chains globally, with production bases in regions like Xinjiang, Yunnan, and overseas in Zambia and India [12] - The overall market environment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2025, with stable demand growth anticipated for the following year [14]

Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Natural colorants and plant extracts Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: Expected to be between 174 million to 204 million CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 117% to 154% [2][3] - **Revenue**: Projected revenue for H1 2025 is between 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of approximately -1% to 8% [3] - **Q2 Performance**: Revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -1% to 16% [2][3] Business Segments Cotton Seed Business - **Performance**: Achieved profitability in H1 2025, significantly contributing to overall performance improvement [5] - **Market Strategy**: Utilized a locking procurement strategy to mitigate price fluctuations, leading to stable cash flow and profit [5] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated seasonal decline in Q3, but expected recovery in Q4 with the new processing season [5] Plant Extract Business - **Recovery**: Q2 2025 showed a strong recovery despite price declines in key products; driven by rapid growth in downstream demand [6] - **Market Trends**: The FDA's ban on synthetic colorants is expected to accelerate the shift towards natural colorants, presenting significant market opportunities [6][7] - **Product Development**: Transitioning from a production company to a solution provider, expanding applications in various sectors [9] Product Highlights - **Top Performers**: Stevia, silymarin, and Sichuan pepper extract showed strong performance in H1 2025 [4][10] - **Market Share Goals**: Aiming to increase market share of chili red to over 80% through optimized processes and equipment [4][15] Regulatory Impact - **FDA Regulations**: The FDA's plan to ban certain synthetic colorants by the end of 2026 is expected to create a global shift towards natural colorants [7][8] - **Market Dynamics**: Natural colorants are currently priced several times higher than synthetic alternatives, indicating substantial replacement potential [7][8] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Currently holds approximately 70% market share in chili red, with plans to increase to over 80% [15] - **Competitors**: Faces competition from breeding and planting companies and Indian counterparts in the chili extract market [15] Future Growth Expectations - **Long-term Projections**: Anticipates stable growth in existing products with a target of 10% to 15% annual growth, while new products may grow at 20% to 30% [20] - **Strategic Initiatives**: Plans to expand into natural sweeteners and essential oils, aiming for a leading global market position [10][20] Operational Advantages - **Cost Efficiency**: Lower production costs due to optimized processes and strategic raw material sourcing across multiple regions [22] - **R&D Capabilities**: Strong R&D team with over 100 members, including PhDs, enhancing product quality and production efficiency [23] Challenges and Mitigation Strategies - **Supply Chain Risks**: Potential price increases in raw materials and the need for supplier trust are identified risks [24] - **Response Measures**: Expanding base locations domestically and internationally to ensure stable supply and mitigate risks [24] Conclusion - **Market Leadership**: Morning Glory Biological Technology Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for natural colorants and plant extracts, supported by strong financial performance, strategic initiatives, and regulatory tailwinds [26]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of -0.89% to 7.71% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 202 million and 232 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 102.33% to 132.38% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 174 million and 204 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 117.40% to 154.88% compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Business Performance Drivers - The recovery in the cottonseed business is a major factor contributing to the company's turnaround [3] - The gross profit from plant extraction products such as chili red, chili essence, and stevia glycosides has increased year-on-year [3] - The company is actively expanding into new product categories, including natural sweeteners and essential oils, aiming to achieve a target of ten world-leading products [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The third quarter is expected to be a slow season, but the company anticipates continued growth in product sales, particularly for chili red and chili essence [4] - The company holds approximately two-thirds of the market share for chili red products, with plans to deepen competitive advantages and expand product applications [4] - The strategy focuses on increasing market share through cost-effective solutions rather than monopolistic pricing, capitalizing on the growth potential in developing countries [4] Group 4: Operational Insights - The company has established a robust risk management framework for its cottonseed business, leading to improved operational stability [4] - A highly educated R&D team and proprietary extraction processes contribute to competitive production costs [5] - The company has acquired farmland in Zambia for cultivation, benefiting from lower land and labor costs compared to domestic operations [5] Group 5: Future Growth Expectations - The plant extraction industry is projected to maintain rapid natural growth, with the company aiming to enhance its market position in core products while nurturing second-tier products [6] - The company plans to leverage its established reputation and strong financial position to ensure supply chain security for downstream customers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Morning Bio, is experiencing a significant recovery in its performance, with a projected net profit increase of 102.33% to 132.38% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by the recovery of its cottonseed business and growth in plant extraction products [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Morning Bio expects a net profit of 202 million to 232 million yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to 99.83 million yuan in the same period last year [1][4]. - In 2023, the company achieved a record high revenue of 6.872 billion yuan and a net profit of 480 million yuan [3]. - In 2024, the company faced challenges with a net profit drop of 80.39% to 94.05 million yuan due to significant losses in the cottonseed business [3][4]. Group 2: Business Segments - The recovery in the cottonseed business is attributed to improved market conditions, with the company planning to increase the protein content in its products to enhance profitability [4][7]. - The plant extraction business, including products like chili red, chili essence, and stevia glycosides, has shown a year-on-year increase in gross profit, contributing to overall performance improvement [1][4]. Group 3: Industry Position - Morning Bio has become the largest listed company in China's plant extraction industry and ranks among the top tier globally, competing with international leaders [5][6]. - The company has developed proprietary technologies for extracting chili red pigment, positioning China as a leading producer in this sector [5]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The company has invested nearly 10 million yuan in process improvements for its cottonseed business and over 3 million yuan in upgrading its stevia production line, achieving a 30% reduction in production costs [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw the plant extraction business generate 867 million yuan in revenue, a 13.78% increase year-on-year, attributed to a successful volume-based pricing strategy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a performance recovery that exceeds expectations, with growth potential still present in the mid-term [1]. - The recovery in the cottonseed business is a significant factor contributing to the strong performance in the first half of the year, supported by favorable market conditions [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability from key products and a strategic plan that is progressing steadily [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects to achieve revenues of 6,872 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 9.1%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 show revenues of 6,994 million yuan and 7,064 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1.8% and 1.0% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The forecasted net profit for 2023 is 480 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%. However, a significant drop is expected in 2024, with a projected net profit of 94 million yuan, reflecting an 80.4% decline. A recovery is anticipated in 2025, with a net profit of 346 million yuan, representing a growth of 268.1% [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.99 yuan in 2023, dropping to 0.19 yuan in 2024, and recovering to 0.72 yuan in 2025 [1][9]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to be 13.7 in 2023, soaring to 70.0 in 2024, and then stabilizing at 19.0 in 2025 [1][9]. Market Conditions - The cottonseed market is showing a stable upward trend, which has positively impacted the company's performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers, including increased product volume, improved efficiency in overseas plantations, and a growing demand for health products [2].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Light Bio is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.46 to 3.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year change of -0.89% to +7.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 202 to 232 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 1.744 to 2.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to +16.2%, and a net profit of 93 to 123 million yuan, indicating a growth of 51.1% to 100.1% [1] - The recovery in the cottonseed business is the main driver for the strong performance in the first half of the year, supported by a favorable market environment [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The cottonseed market has shown a stable and positive trend, with the second quarter experiencing price fluctuations in soybeans and soybean meal due to US-China tariff disputes, which positively impacted cottonseed prices [1] - Key products in the plant extraction segment, such as chili red, chili essence, and steviol glycosides, have all seen a year-on-year increase in gross profit, demonstrating resilience despite lower prices [1] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from several growth drivers in the coming years, including increased production of tiered products, expansion of overseas planting bases, accelerated replacement by natural pigments, and growing demand for health products [1] - The company is a leading player in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability in key varieties and a strong growth trajectory for scaled products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Morning Bio (300138.SZ), anticipates significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by the recovery in its cottonseed business and steady growth in its plant extraction segment [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects to achieve revenue between 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.89% to 7.71% [1]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 202 million to 232 million yuan, indicating a substantial year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1]. - The expected non-recurring net profit ranges from 174 million to 204 million yuan, with a remarkable growth rate of 117.40% to 154.88% compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segment Performance - The recovery in the cottonseed business is identified as the main factor influencing the company's performance, transitioning from losses to profitability due to improved market conditions [1]. - The plant extraction business, including products like chili red, chili essence, and steviol glycosides, has also contributed to the overall profit growth, with significant year-on-year increases in gross profit [1]. Strategic Insights - The company has committed to a locked-in operating model, which has effectively mitigated risks associated with price fluctuations in the cottonseed market, leading to a turnaround in profitability [1][2]. - The company anticipates that high prices for cottonseed protein and the implementation of new standards for lutein will provide ongoing growth momentum in the second half of the year [2].