Core Viewpoint - The company, Morning Bio (300138.SZ), anticipates significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by the recovery in its cottonseed business and steady growth in its plant extraction segment [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects to achieve revenue between 3.46 billion to 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.89% to 7.71% [1]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 202 million to 232 million yuan, indicating a substantial year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1]. - The expected non-recurring net profit ranges from 174 million to 204 million yuan, with a remarkable growth rate of 117.40% to 154.88% compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segment Performance - The recovery in the cottonseed business is identified as the main factor influencing the company's performance, transitioning from losses to profitability due to improved market conditions [1]. - The plant extraction business, including products like chili red, chili essence, and steviol glycosides, has also contributed to the overall profit growth, with significant year-on-year increases in gross profit [1]. Strategic Insights - The company has committed to a locked-in operating model, which has effectively mitigated risks associated with price fluctuations in the cottonseed market, leading to a turnaround in profitability [1][2]. - The company anticipates that high prices for cottonseed protein and the implementation of new standards for lutein will provide ongoing growth momentum in the second half of the year [2].

盈利预测与投资评级：我们认为，公司植提类业务多个产品凭借成本优势不断放量提升市占率，棉籽类 业务行情回暖业绩拐点已现。我们预计公司2025-27 年可实现归母净利润3.65/4.57/5.64 亿元，分别同比 增速为288.51%/25.18%/23.21%，对应PE 分别为14X/12X/9X，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：食品安全风险、上游原材料成本波动风险、市场竞争激烈程度加剧风险、下游终端需求不及 预期风险、境外经营风险等 25Q1 具体业务来看：1）辣椒红：销售价格随成本相应下调，销量快速增长的带动下，辣椒红色素收入 同比增长约7%；2）辣椒精：充分发挥云南原材料成本优势，销量同比增长一倍以上，带动收入同比增 长约24%；3）叶黄素：市场延续供给过剩态势，产品价格保持低位，公司优化产品结构，叶黄素整体 销量同比有所增长，其中食品级叶黄素销量同比增长50%；4）香辛料：花椒提取物销量同比增长约 15%，胡椒提取物、孜然提取物、生姜提取物等产品同样延续了良好势头；5）甜菊糖苷：公司依托创 新性技术带来的成本优势，甜菊糖苷销量增长约40%，并呈现量价齐升，甜菊糖苷收入突破8000 万 元，同比增长约55% ...