Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in May, highlighting that global stocks outperformed commodities, the renminbi, and the dollar, while global bonds showed a decline [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In May, global stocks returned 5.72%, followed by commodities at 1.26%, the renminbi at 1.00%, the dollar at -0.14%, and global bonds at -0.36% [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. may exacerbate long-term debt risks, with projections indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio could soar to 134%-149% by 2035 if the act is implemented [4][10]. - The probability of a U.S. economic recession is rising, leading to defensive sectors outperforming cyclical sectors, with defensive sectors showing a year-to-date valuation increase of 10.7% compared to cyclical sectors [5][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, driven by a weaker dollar, which reduces the holding costs of emerging market assets and alleviates debt pressures [6][15]. - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to European stocks, reaching the highest level since October 2017, with net overweights rising from 22% to 35% [6][18]. - U.S. trade policy uncertainty is identified as a significant risk for U.S. stocks, with a close correlation observed between the Bloomberg U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the S&P 500 Index [6][22]. Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Insights - The implied volatility of the USD/HKD risk reversal options has dropped to historically low levels, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment towards the HKD [7][25]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Seven Giants" in the U.S. stock market has decreased to historical lows, suggesting a reset in the valuation advantage of tech giants [8][28]. - The Japanese yen's traditional safe-haven status has weakened, leading to significant depreciation in May, while other Asian currencies benefited from tariff pauses [8][31]. Group 4: Recent Developments in Currencies - Following the U.S.-China tariff suspension agreement, the onshore renminbi exchange rate broke through the central bank's midpoint, reaching a new high for the year [9][32]. - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced significant appreciation, surpassing the 30 mark against the U.S. dollar, attributed to foreign capital inflows and global risk sentiment rebound [9][37].

Group 1: Industry Overview - JD Group's launch of "JD Takeaway" and a "100 billion subsidy" has intensified competition in the instant retail sector, particularly among Meituan, JD, and Ele.me [1] - Meituan's CEO Wang Xing emphasized that market competition promotes industry development, especially for instant retail, but the "low-quality, low-price" competition is unsustainable in the long term [1][9] - The collective shift towards "quality" as a core strategy among major platforms indicates a move away from price wars to a focus on value competition [1][2] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - In May, regulatory authorities held discussions with food delivery platforms, reflecting a tightening stance against "low-quality, low-price" and "involution" competition [1] Group 3: Company Developments - Meituan's flash purchase service reported a 200% year-on-year increase in transaction volume during the first day of the "618" event, driven by surging demand for instant retail [4] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced the successful launch of the Mero4 project in Brazil, which will enhance overall oil production capacity [5] - Xiaomi clarified that its "Xuanjie O1" chip is not customized from Arm, highlighting its advancements in independent chip development [3] - BYD's blade battery and fast-charging blade battery passed the new national battery standards ahead of schedule, showcasing its leadership in battery safety technology [8] - Changan Automobile appointed two new product CEOs to enhance management in the context of its transition to new energy vehicles [10] - GAC Group partnered with Alibaba Cloud for overseas market expansion, focusing on digital infrastructure and supply chain management [11]

贝克休斯：持续的不确定性以及近期油价的波动对下半年美国陆上油气开发活动可能构成下行风险。 ...