Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term news boosts rubber prices, but with expected increase in supply and weak demand, subsequent rubber prices are likely to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 13,950; the full - cream basis (switched to the 2509 contract) dropped 110 yuan/ton with a - 314.29% change; Thai standard mixed rubber quote increased 50 with a 0.36% rise [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.34% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased 40 yuan/ton with a 61.54% change; the 5 - 9 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.17% change [2] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased 166,500 tons with a 157.52% rise; Indonesia's production increased 6,200 tons with a 3.19% rise; India's production increased 2,300 tons with a 5.07% rise; China's production increased 38,900 tons [2] - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased 10,313 tons with a 1.70% rise; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased 4,638 tons with a - 14.38% change [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous sharp rise in industrial silicon futures prices, the arbitrage window opened slightly. Today, prices dropped rapidly due to concerns about increased production in the southwest and by large enterprises. Although production cuts help reduce supply surplus, supply in July is still expected to be sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal futures prices [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon increased 50 yuan/ton with a 0.59% rise; the basis (oxygen - permeable SI5530 benchmark) increased 20 yuan/ton with a 4.76% change [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased 15 yuan/ton with a - 30.00% change; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased 20 yuan/ton with a 400.00% change [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased 20,000 tons with a 6.50% rise; Xinjiang's production increased 3,100 tons with a 1.90% rise; Yunnan's production increased 14,700 tons with a 146.26% rise [4] - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased 2,900 tons with a - 1.65% change; social inventory decreased 17,000 tons with a - 3.04% change [4] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In July, with the reduction of electricity prices in the southwest's wet season, polysilicon futures increased in positions and decreased in price. The downstream product prices are still falling, and demand remains weak. The main contradiction in the polysilicon fundamentals is the mismatch between weak demand and restart expectations. Pay attention to changes in polysilicon production [5] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remained at 34,500 yuan/ton; the N - type feedstock basis (average price) increased 835 yuan/ton with an 86.53% change [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased 835 yuan/ton with a - 2.49% change; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased 300 yuan/ton with a 333.33% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased 0.54 GM with a 4.19% rise; monthly polysilicon production in June increased 4,900 tons with a 5.10% rise [5] - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased 8,000 tons with a 3.05% rise; silicon wafer inventory increased 1.37 GM with a 7.31% rise [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is in an obvious surplus pattern. Although producers still have some profits, there will be a further profit - reduction process. After the previous photovoltaic restart, demand growth is limited. After maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions [6] - **Glass**: Spot sales have weakened significantly. In the summer rainy season, deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass industry still faces surplus pressure. Short - term sentiment has turned weak, and a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 09 contract [6] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: North China's glass quote increased 10 yuan/ton with a 0.88% rise; the glass 2509 contract decreased 26 yuan/ton with a - 2.58% change; the 05 basis increased 26 yuan/ton with a 2600.00% change [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: North China's soda ash quote remained at 1,350 yuan/ton; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased 16 yuan/ton with a - 1.32% change; the 05 basis increased 18 yuan/ton with a 13.43% change [6] - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate decreased 4.36 percentage points with a - 5.04% change; weekly soda ash production decreased 38,000 tons with a - 5.04% change; float glass daily melting volume increased 1,000 tons with a 0.90% rise [6] - **Inventory**: Glass market inventory decreased 67,100 tons with a - 0.96% change; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased 11,000 tons with a 0.63% rise; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased 33,000 tons with a - 10.61% change [6] Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Yesterday, log futures weakened and fluctuated. The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter. Fundamentally, from June to August, log demand enters the off - season. With low arrival data in July and expected seasonal reduction in New Zealand's shipments, the market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log 2509 contract decreased 4 yuan/cubic meter with a - 0.51% change; the 7 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/cubic meter; the 09 contract basis was - 41 yuan/cubic meter [7] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost was 775.09 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.37% change [7] - **Supply**: Port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 228,000 cubic meters with a - 13.20% change; the number of departing ships decreased 5 with a - 7.94% change [7] - **Inventory**: National coniferous log total inventory increased 10,000 cubic meters to 3.36 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7] - **Demand**: Log daily average outbound volume increased 0.21 million cubic meters to 6.57 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample with production decline and profit drop, and it's expected that supply will stay loose, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to revert, and basis reversion trading may continue. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply slightly decreases with one more cold - repaired production line, and the industry profit keeps falling. The demand is expected to weaken further due to the poor real - estate situation. It is suggested to go long on dips in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main soda ash contract is 1181 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the closing price of the main glass contract is 1006 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 175 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The 9 - 1 contract spread of soda ash is - 13 yuan, down 17 yuan; that of glass is - 79 yuan, down 21 yuan. The basis of soda ash is 14 yuan, down 11 yuan; that of glass is 37 yuan, down 3 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main soda ash contract is 1,588,831 lots, an increase of 79,343 lots; that of the main glass contract is 1,470,350 lots, an increase of 30,678 lots. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 288,637 lots, a decrease of 65,695 lots; that in glass is - 322,568 lots, a decrease of 46,519 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 3,761 tons, an increase of 19 tons; those of glass are 877 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,223 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; that of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,056 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of Central China glass sheets is 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.68 million tons/year, an increase of 0.14 million tons/year; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, a decrease of 1 [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 176.69 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 69,216,000 weight boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative new - construction area of real estate is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the cumulative completion area of real estate is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters [2]. - The central bank plans to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land, and the real - estate market shows a stable trend. In the first five months, the total transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai is 10.94 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 30%. The real - estate market continued to recover in Q1 2025, and the decline has stopped and stabilized [2]. Industry News - The land transfer fees of residential land in 300 cities increased by 24.5% year - on - year in H1 2025. In the 25th week of 2025, the new - house transactions in Shenzhen were 1,150 units, a week - on - week increase of 2%. Two residential - related land parcels in Guangzhou were sold at the reserve price of 2.496 billion yuan [2]. - In June, the number and area of second - hand housing online sign - ups in Guangzhou increased by 7.18% and 8.03% respectively week - on - week. A residential land parcel in Chengdu's Jinniu District was sold for 1.748 billion yuan. The land revenue in Chengdu in H1 increased by 100% year - on - year [2]. - Two residential land parcels in Nanjing's Xuanwu District were sold for about 1.2 billion yuan, and Greentown won a plot for 1.022 billion yuan. China Jinmao spent about 5.144 billion yuan to acquire three land parcels [2]. Macro - aspect - The third - batch funds for consumer goods trade - in will be allocated in July. The operating rate of domestic soda ash plants decreased this week, and the production of soda ash declined. The market supply is still ample, and the profit of domestic soda ash has decreased, with the profit of the ammonia - soda process turning negative [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the given content Group 3: Glass Market Summary Price Changes - From June 18 - 25, 2025, prices of some glass products like Hebei Anquan 5mm large - size glass increased (from 1104.0 to 1128.0), while others like Wuhan Changli 5mm large - size glass remained unchanged at 1080.0 [1] Contract and Spread Changes - FG09 contract price rose from 980.0 on June 18 to 1017.0 on June 25; FG 9 - 1 spread changed from - 58.0 to 49.0 during the same period [1] Profit and Cost Changes - North China coal - fired glass profit increased from 221.8 to 256.4, and coal cost changed from 865.2 to 864.6 [1] Market Conditions - Glass spot: In Shahe, trader prices were around 1120, mid - stream shipments were average, and there was a shortage of spot and futures sources; in Hubei, factory low prices were around 980, and transactions were average [1] - Glass production and sales: Shahe was 89, Hubei 90, East China 100, and South China 106 [1] Group 4: Soda Ash Market Summary Price Changes - From June 18 - 25, 2025, Shahe heavy soda ash price decreased from 1210.0 to 1200.0, and Qinghai heavy soda ash price dropped from 980.0 to 950.0 [1] Contract and Spread Changes - SA05 contract price decreased from 1204.0 to 1200.0, and SA09 - 1 spread decreased from 11.0 to 7.0 [1] Profit and Cost Changes - North China ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 116.3 to - 131.4, and cost increased from 1286.3 to 1291.4 [1] Market Conditions - Soda ash spot: Heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was quoted around 1160, and Shahe warehouses around 1200 [1] - Soda ash industry: Factory warehouses had inventory accumulation [1]