C 国金期货 观投研丨产业链周报 成文日期：20250719 报告周期：周度 研究员：何宁 从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219 整体来看天然橡 胶短期内或保持偏强震荡 研究品种：天然橡胶 天然橡胶和 号胶期货 具 体如下： 万 万 万 万 ■● ● 橡胶2601 (SHFE ru2601) 日线 ▼ 15800 105 / 0.67 70 10 15385 50 MA60 15126 3 281天 KDJ(9.3.3) ▽ K 89.02 D 85.75 anamilling oldaml www ar 10310 图片来源：文华财经 wh6 二 现货 分析 国内海南 降雨较多 割胶工作受阻，全岛近 期日收胶量约 吨，不及去年同期水平 图 2：天然橡胶 2601（RU2601）日线图 图 3：20 号胶 2509（NR2509）日线图 1 4 281天 KDJ(9,3,3) ✓ K 89.87 D -25/07/2 图片来源：文华财经 wh6 权请联系我们。本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或我公司调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎 审核、甄别和判断信息内容，但由于信息获取和展示的局限性 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesian officials are requesting the United States to exempt rubber from tariffs, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics and the importance of rubber in bilateral trade relations [1] Group 1 - The request for tariff exemption highlights Indonesia's reliance on rubber exports and the need for favorable trade conditions to maintain competitiveness in the global market [1] - This move may reflect broader trade negotiations between Indonesia and the United States, aiming to strengthen economic ties and enhance trade volumes [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term news boosts rubber prices, but with expected increase in supply and weak demand, subsequent rubber prices are likely to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 13,950; the full - cream basis (switched to the 2509 contract) dropped 110 yuan/ton with a - 314.29% change; Thai standard mixed rubber quote increased 50 with a 0.36% rise [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.34% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased 40 yuan/ton with a 61.54% change; the 5 - 9 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.17% change [2] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased 166,500 tons with a 157.52% rise; Indonesia's production increased 6,200 tons with a 3.19% rise; India's production increased 2,300 tons with a 5.07% rise; China's production increased 38,900 tons [2] - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased 10,313 tons with a 1.70% rise; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased 4,638 tons with a - 14.38% change [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous sharp rise in industrial silicon futures prices, the arbitrage window opened slightly. Today, prices dropped rapidly due to concerns about increased production in the southwest and by large enterprises. Although production cuts help reduce supply surplus, supply in July is still expected to be sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal futures prices [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon increased 50 yuan/ton with a 0.59% rise; the basis (oxygen - permeable SI5530 benchmark) increased 20 yuan/ton with a 4.76% change [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased 15 yuan/ton with a - 30.00% change; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased 20 yuan/ton with a 400.00% change [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased 20,000 tons with a 6.50% rise; Xinjiang's production increased 3,100 tons with a 1.90% rise; Yunnan's production increased 14,700 tons with a 146.26% rise [4] - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased 2,900 tons with a - 1.65% change; social inventory decreased 17,000 tons with a - 3.04% change [4] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In July, with the reduction of electricity prices in the southwest's wet season, polysilicon futures increased in positions and decreased in price. The downstream product prices are still falling, and demand remains weak. The main contradiction in the polysilicon fundamentals is the mismatch between weak demand and restart expectations. Pay attention to changes in polysilicon production [5] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remained at 34,500 yuan/ton; the N - type feedstock basis (average price) increased 835 yuan/ton with an 86.53% change [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased 835 yuan/ton with a - 2.49% change; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased 300 yuan/ton with a 333.33% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased 0.54 GM with a 4.19% rise; monthly polysilicon production in June increased 4,900 tons with a 5.10% rise [5] - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased 8,000 tons with a 3.05% rise; silicon wafer inventory increased 1.37 GM with a 7.31% rise [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is in an obvious surplus pattern. Although producers still have some profits, there will be a further profit - reduction process. After the previous photovoltaic restart, demand growth is limited. After maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions [6] - **Glass**: Spot sales have weakened significantly. In the summer rainy season, deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass industry still faces surplus pressure. Short - term sentiment has turned weak, and a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 09 contract [6] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: North China's glass quote increased 10 yuan/ton with a 0.88% rise; the glass 2509 contract decreased 26 yuan/ton with a - 2.58% change; the 05 basis increased 26 yuan/ton with a 2600.00% change [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: North China's soda ash quote remained at 1,350 yuan/ton; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased 16 yuan/ton with a - 1.32% change; the 05 basis increased 18 yuan/ton with a 13.43% change [6] - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate decreased 4.36 percentage points with a - 5.04% change; weekly soda ash production decreased 38,000 tons with a - 5.04% change; float glass daily melting volume increased 1,000 tons with a 0.90% rise [6] - **Inventory**: Glass market inventory decreased 67,100 tons with a - 0.96% change; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased 11,000 tons with a 0.63% rise; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased 33,000 tons with a - 10.61% change [6] Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Yesterday, log futures weakened and fluctuated. The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter. Fundamentally, from June to August, log demand enters the off - season. With low arrival data in July and expected seasonal reduction in New Zealand's shipments, the market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log 2509 contract decreased 4 yuan/cubic meter with a - 0.51% change; the 7 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/cubic meter; the 09 contract basis was - 41 yuan/cubic meter [7] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost was 775.09 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.37% change [7] - **Supply**: Port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 228,000 cubic meters with a - 13.20% change; the number of departing ships decreased 5 with a - 7.94% change [7] - **Inventory**: National coniferous log total inventory increased 10,000 cubic meters to 3.36 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7] - **Demand**: Log daily average outbound volume increased 0.21 million cubic meters to 6.57 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The "Insurance + Futures" project for natural rubber has significantly improved the lives of rubber farmers and stabilized the rubber industry in China, providing financial security and encouraging sustainable development [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - In 2011, natural rubber prices fell sharply from a historical high of $4000 per ton to around $1000 per ton, leading to a decline in farmers' income and a high abandonment rate of rubber tapping [2][3]. - By 2015, rubber farmers in Hainan and Yunnan faced losses exceeding 5000 yuan per ton, resulting in a significant number of farmers abandoning rubber tapping or switching to other crops [2][3]. Group 2: Project Implementation and Impact - The "Insurance + Futures" project was launched to provide price insurance for rubber farmers, allowing them to hedge against price fluctuations through a collaborative model involving insurance companies, futures exchanges, and local governments [3][5]. - From 2017 to 2023, the project covered 1.8334 million acres of rubber trees in Yunnan, with total compensation reaching 84.9482 million yuan and a payout rate of 81% [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Innovations and Benefits - The project has revitalized farmers' production enthusiasm, with approximately 480,000 farmers benefiting from the program in 2024, as rubber prices showed an upward trend [4][5]. - The introduction of flexible financial instruments, such as American-style options, has increased the likelihood of farmers receiving compensation during favorable market conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Development and Collaboration - The project has evolved to address complex industry challenges, promoting a comprehensive service model that enhances the entire rubber supply chain [6][8]. - Collaborations between rubber processing companies and farmers have improved the stability of raw material supply and pricing, increasing the order fulfillment rate from 60% to 90% [6][8]. Group 5: Technological Integration and Future Prospects - The establishment of a rubber industry database has enabled real-time monitoring of production and pricing, enhancing transparency and efficiency in the compensation process [10][11]. - The project has contributed to the sustainable development of the rubber industry, with significant investments and support for local economies, aligning with national policies for rural revitalization [11].