Core Insights - The total trading volume of non-monetary ETFs reached 193.249 billion yuan, with 48 ETFs exceeding 1 billion yuan in trading volume [1] - The top three ETFs by trading volume were Short-term Bond ETF, 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF, and Policy Financial Bond ETF, with volumes of 9.596 billion, 9.496 billion, and 9.486 billion yuan respectively [1] - The Credit Bond ETF and German ETF had the highest turnover rates at 158.64% and 139.63% respectively, indicating high trading activity [1][7] Trading Volume and Performance - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360.SH) had a trading volume of 9.596 billion yuan and a latest share size of 3.32 million, closely tracking the China Bond Short-term Index [2][1] - The 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511090.SH) recorded a trading volume of 9.496 billion yuan, with a latest share size of 1.30 million, tracking the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index [2][1] - The German ETF (513030.SH) had a trading volume of 9.486 billion yuan and a latest share size of 7.30 million, tracking the DAX Index [2][1] Turnover Rates - The Credit Bond ETF Fund had a turnover rate of 158.64%, indicating significant trading activity [7] - The German ETF and 0-4 Local Bond ETF followed with turnover rates of 139.63% and 125.91% respectively, showcasing their popularity among investors [7] Sector and Industry Focus - The industry-themed ETFs included the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF and Hang Seng Technology ETF, reflecting a focus on technology sectors [1] - The Big Data Industry ETF, Smart Electric Vehicle ETF, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF were highlighted for their market performance, with respective amplitudes of 11.94%, 10.08%, and 9.74% [8][11] - The Smart Electric Vehicle ETF (516380.SH) and Big Data Industry ETF (516700.SH) had recent share sizes of 1.26 million and 1.25 million, respectively, indicating their growing market presence [9][8]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, the GDP of Huicheng District reached 27.731 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [1] - The primary industry added value was 0.835 billion, growing by 6.8%; the secondary industry added value was 6.022 billion, increasing by 9.5%; and the tertiary industry added value was 20.874 billion, with a growth of 4.8% [1] Agricultural and Industrial Performance - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in the district was 1.331 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [2] - The forestry sector saw a remarkable growth of 431.5% [2] - The industrial output value above designated size reached 20.1 billion, growing by 13.7% [2] - The mining industry increased by 49.8%, manufacturing by 14.8%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry by 2.0% [2] Retail and Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the district amounted to 20.829 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [3] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 35.5% [3] - Online retail through public networks grew by 27.9% [3] Trade and Taxation - The total import and export value reached 8.77 billion, with a growth of 51.4% [4] - Tax revenue for the first quarter was 6.748 billion, increasing by 10.4% [5] - Domestic tax revenue grew by 3.0%, with a total of 4.470 billion [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3316.11, up 1.13% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.84%, closing at 10082.34, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.97%, closing at 1986.41 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.34 trillion, an increase of 166.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Computer (up 3.65%), Communication (up 3.59%), and Comprehensive (up 3.38%) [1] - Conversely, the Banking sector saw a slight decline of 0.13%, and the Food & Beverage sector increased by only 0.35% [1] - Notable concept stocks such as Controlled Nuclear Fusion and Rare Earth Permanent Magnet saw significant gains, with increases of 6.32% and 5.45% respectively [2][3] Consumer Trends - There was a notable increase in long-distance travel demand during the May Day holiday, with over 1.1 billion cross-regional movements recorded, averaging 282 million daily, significantly higher than the same period in 2019 and 2024 [3] - Domestic tourism outperformed outbound travel, with a clear trend of consumption upgrades in lower-tier cities [3] Economic Indicators - The Caixin China General Services PMI for April was reported at 50.7, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from March, but still indicating expansion [3] - The overall earnings reports from A-share companies showed an improvement in profitability, with structural differentiation in revenue growth rates across industries [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with sustained high growth potential, including Finance, Public Utilities, Consumer, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4] - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillation and recovery in the short term, with further potential for risk appetite to improve [4]

Summary of the Computer Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the computer industry, specifically the performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, highlighting revenue trends and profitability metrics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **2024 Performance**: The total revenue for the computer industry in 2024 was 1.27 trillion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.78%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47% to 188 million RMB, and non-recurring profit fell by 52% to 82.5 million RMB. The total number of employees also declined by 0.6% to 1.201 million [2][6]. - **Q1 2025 Recovery**: In Q1 2025, the industry showed signs of recovery with revenue reaching 286 billion RMB, a 15% increase year-on-year. Non-recurring profit was approximately 28 million RMB, nearly 1.9 times higher than the previous year. However, the growth in profit is influenced by a low base effect, making revenue growth a more reliable indicator [3][6]. - **Quarterly Revenue Trends**: Revenue growth has shown significant volatility over the years, peaking at 17.3% in Q1 2022 before declining. It rebounded to 9.17% in Q2 2024 and surpassed 15% in Q1 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in industry sentiment [7]. - **Profitability Decline**: From 2019 to 2024, the average gross margin decreased from approximately 43% to 38%, with the median gross margin dropping from 42% to 35%. The median net margin fell from 10% to 1.74%, reflecting a decline in profitability due to cyclical effects and increased AI R&D expenditures [10]. - **Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow**: In 2024, contract liabilities and advance payments totaled 1.1298 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 7%. Operating cash flow improved to 77 billion RMB, up from 72 billion RMB the previous year, with accounts receivable remaining stable at around 30% of revenue [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Segmentation**: Large-cap companies showed resilience with an 8% revenue growth in 2024, while small-cap companies experienced a 9% decline. In Q1 2025, large-cap companies achieved a revenue growth rate of 22%, while small-cap companies declined by 7% [4][14]. - **Sector Performance**: The "Xinchuang" sector demonstrated significant revenue and net profit growth in 2024. In Q1 2025, sectors such as AI, autonomous driving, data elements, and energy performed well, driven by major companies like iFlytek and Hongquan [15]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The current favorable fiscal and monetary policies, along with increased cloud spending, are expected to enhance industry sentiment. The anticipated incremental effects of AI are expected to manifest in Q2 and Q3. Investors are advised to focus on the recovery of traditional businesses and the changing market demand for AI-related products [8][9][16]. - **Goodwill Trends**: Goodwill has been declining since 2019 due to poor economic conditions and challenges in meeting performance commitments. The expected goodwill for 2025 is projected to decrease to 73 billion RMB from 77 billion RMB [13]. - **R&D and Expense Ratios**: In 2024, the median R&D expense ratio was 11.84%, while management and sales expense ratios remained stable at around 8-10% [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the computer industry's performance and outlook.

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 重点布局 AI 应用及国产化。 从细分领域来看，在当前的位置，综合考虑产业本身的迭代催化、后续的政策发力 方向、订单的落地节奏等因素，建议重点布局 AI 及国产化，以及 eCall 及金融科技。其中，上述领域中，从受 业绩影响的维度来看，对 5 月的风险偏好改善相对更敏感的是 AI 应用及国产化；同时考虑到产业的催化密度， 预计 AI 应用将最为核心。 国内 AI 产业持续加速发展。 自 4 月底以来，国内 AI 产业正迎来密集催化。 4 月 25 日，中共中央政治局就加 强人工智能发展和监管进行集体学习； 4 月 28 日，阿里巴巴发布了最新 Qwen3 模型； 4 月 30 日，小米开源 推理大模型 Xiaomi MiMo ，同日 DeepSeek 开源了最新的数学定理证明专用模型 DS-Prover-V2-671B 。后 续，包括 DS-R2 等在内的大模型进展值得期待。 风险提示：板块业绩不达预期；下游需求存在景气度不稳定的风险；科技创新可能带来短期业绩下降。 注：文中报告节选自兴业证券经济与金融研究院已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详 ...

本周观点聚焦 周观点 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 把握超跌加仓机会，布局绩优成长龙头。 受关税事件等影响，市场风险偏好下行，板块调整充分。从基本面来 看，计算机板块大部分公司和国内 G 端、 B 端支出关系更强，在国内政策发力，内需有望提振的背景下，受关 税影响较小，且将更受益于国产化产业趋势。伴随后续风险偏好企稳，板块估值修复可期。建议当下以长打短， 积极加仓，重点布局被错杀的超跌质优龙头。 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/陈鑫/杨本鸿/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 证券研究报告： 《 信创：国际环境变局下的成长之矛 》 对外发布时间： 2025 年 4 月 12 日 报告发布机构： 兴业证券股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格） 本报告分析师 ： 蒋佳霖 SAC执业证书编号： S0190515050002 孙 乾 SAC执业证书编号：S0190518110001 陈 鑫 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522030001 杨本鸿 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522080001 张旭光 SAC执业证书编号：S0190523090002 杨海盟 SAC执业证 ...

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/陈鑫/杨本鸿/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 本周观点聚焦 1、本周 观 点： 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 2、深度跟 踪 ：信创：国际环境变局下的成长之矛 周观点 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 把握超跌加仓机会，布局绩优成长龙头。 受关税事件等影响，市场风险偏好下行，板块调整充分。从基本面来看，计算机板块大部分公司和国内 G 端、 B 端支出关系 更强，在国内政策发力，内需有望提振的背景下，受关税影响较小，且将更受益于国产化产业趋势。伴随后续风险偏好企稳，板块估值修复可期。建议当下以长打短， 积极加仓，重点布局被错杀的超跌质优龙头。 信创产业发展加速，加大板块布局力度。 本周，半导体协会发文定义半导体产品原产地认定规则，有望刺激国产硬科技自主可控进程加速。中物联呼吁锻造 " 自主链核 " ，优先采购国产尖端产品。经过长期的产业积累，国内基础软硬件产品已经具备了较强的竞争力，在海外环境倒逼的背景下，有望迎来更大的市场需求，更好的发展格 局，建议以长期视角审视板块发展逻辑，优选核心环节自主可控龙头公司大力布局。 本文第二章，对信创产业最新进 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Computer Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the computer sector, highlighting recent market adjustments and their impacts on various companies within the industry [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Adjustment Impact**: The computer index dropped by 12.55% on Monday, with a near 1% recovery on Tuesday. Many computer stocks experienced a 20% adjustment, with around 180-190 companies seeing declines over 15% [2][3]. - **Overseas Revenue**: In 2023, overseas revenue for the computer sector was only 12%, with the U.S. market contributing 2%. This limited exposure means that overall performance is less affected by international market fluctuations [4]. - **Stable IT Spending**: Downstream IT spending remains stable, and the risk from tariff increases is limited due to the low overseas revenue share [4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with solid fundamentals and good Q1 performance are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, such as: - **New大陆**: Expected Q1 profit growth over 20% and has initiated stock buybacks [5]. - **通行宝**: Anticipated annual growth of 70%-100% [5]. - **新国都**: Currently undervalued with a projected profit of approximately 7 billion yuan and a market cap of 90 billion yuan [7]. - **科远智慧**: Expected to achieve 3.2-3.5 billion yuan in revenue this year, with a market cap of 48 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 14, indicating it is undervalued [8]. - **鸿泉物联**: Potential for significant profit growth if domestic policies are fully implemented by 2027 [9]. - **云赛智联**: Projected growth of over 20% this year, with involvement in Shanghai's smart computing initiatives [10]. - **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment has a diminishing marginal effect on the computer sector. As confidence returns, the sector is expected to rebound more robustly [6]. - **AI Sector Performance**: Companies in the AI application field, such as 赛意信息, 合合信息, and 虹软科技, have strong fundamentals despite market volatility. Their revenue is not heavily reliant on the U.S. market, mitigating risks from international fluctuations [11]. - **信创 Industry Development**: The 信创 industry is accelerating due to international environmental changes, with companies like 华大九天 and 海天瑞声 poised to benefit. Mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector are expected to strengthen foundational capabilities [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the computer sector suggests that while recent adjustments have been significant, the underlying fundamentals of many companies remain strong, presenting potential investment opportunities in a recovering market [2][6][12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **信创 (Xinchuang) industry**, which is focused on domestic technology development and innovation in response to international trade tensions and tariffs [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on the Computer Industry**: The computer industry is characterized by high elasticity, with a recent drop of approximately 13%. Tariffs have a limited impact, as overseas revenue constitutes about 10% of the sector, with only 5% affected by U.S. tariffs [2][6]. - **Growth in Xinchuang Industry**: The Xinchuang industry is experiencing a peak in construction due to fiscal stimulus and a clear quantitative target set for 2027. The demand is high, as indicated by procurement data from Guangdong Province [2][4]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: There is robust demand and supply in the Xinchuang sector, with rapid technological advancements among companies. Fiscal support is enhancing industry sentiment [7][10]. - **U.S. Trade Policies**: The U.S. has expanded its entity list, impacting Chinese semiconductor development and prompting companies to adjust supply chains. This has accelerated domestic innovation and technology upgrades [8][9]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should focus on the entire Xinchuang sector, analyzing company performance and market sentiment while considering lessons from previous trade disputes [7][26]. Notable Companies in Xinchuang - Key companies to watch include **EDA**, **华大九天 (Huada Jiutian)**, **达梦 (Dameng)**, **中软 (Zhongruan)**, and **软通 (Ruantong)**. EDA is particularly significant due to its critical role in the industry [5][26]. Market Dynamics - **Procurement Trends**: Guangdong Province's commercial PC procurement from January to March 2025 has already surpassed the total for the previous year, indicating strong market growth [14][15]. - **Operating Systems**: The primary operating systems in the Xinchuang sector include **麒麟 (Kylin)** and **统信 (Tongxin)**, which dominate in government and financial sectors [18]. - **Database and CPU Developments**: **达梦 (Dameng)** is a key player in the database market, while **龙芯 (Loongson)** is notable in the CPU space, with products achieving competitive performance levels [19][20]. Future Projections - **PC and Server Sales**: Projections indicate that online PC sales in the government sector will reach 950,000 units by 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [24]. - **Government Support**: The government is providing substantial financial backing for the Xinchuang sector, with plans for long-term bonds and significant funding allocations [23]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Opportunities**: The instability in global supply chains presents opportunities for Chinese hardware and software companies to expand internationally, particularly in regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [12]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: The Xinchuang industry is seeing shifts in market share across various segments, with domestic products gaining ground against established foreign competitors [25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future potential of the Xinchuang industry amidst ongoing global trade challenges.

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 "AI+数据要素"有望挖掘数据变现新潜力 计算机周观察 20250316 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 我们认为 AI 跟数据要素结合有望诞生数据变现新方式，当前国家统筹数据侧、 算力侧基础设施发展，国产 AI 全产业链面临历史性成长机遇，继续重点关注 AI Infra、国产算力、AI 应用、数据要素重点环节等布局机会。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；AI 发展不及预期；行业竞争加剧风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 283 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3910.6 | 4.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3408.9 | 4.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.9 90.7 45.0 相对表现 2.2 63.9 32.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Mar/24 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《国产大模型及 Agent 发力，AI ...