降息后的配置策略 20250922 摘要 美联储在上周如预期开启了降息周期，降息 25 个基点。这一举措虽已被市场 充分预期，但并未引发更大幅度的降息。美联储点阵图显示今年（2025 年） 接下来还有 50 个基点的降息空间，预计会有两次 25 个基点的降息。然而，由 于其中一个异常投票，导致市场对未来降息路径的预期并不强烈。 此次降息具 有预防性质，因此宽松交易暂缓甚至阶段性逆转。未来可能随着非农数据、通 胀数据及 10 月份进一步降息临近而出现反复波动。历史数据显示，自 1990 年以来七次降息周期中，美债、黄金、新兴市场和小盘股等资产在宽松交易中 表现较好，但随着利好兑现，市场将逐步转向复苏交易。 具体到当前情况，从 8 月中下旬到 9 月初，美债利率见底回升，美元走强，黄金回落，这些都表明 宽松交易已经开始逐步切换为复苏交易。预计此次切换速度介于 2019 年和 2024 年之间，即比 2024 年稍慢，但仍较快。这是因为当前通胀没有大幅回 落，且美联储此次降息速度较慢，对基本面的提振效果也相对滞后。 美联储政策对中国市场有何影响？ 美联储政策对中国市场有一定影响，但传导机制复杂，需要中国自身政策配合 ...

Key Points Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategic direction of **Nexteer Automotive** in the context of the automotive industry, particularly focusing on steering technologies and electric power steering (EPS) systems. Core Insights and Arguments - **New Product Launch**: Nexteer plans to begin mass production of new products in the first half of 2026, which is among the company's top ten key projects. The production volume is expected to be flexible, depending on technological reliability and regulatory environment. The unit value is projected to be at least 3,000 yuan [2][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The advancement of steer-by-wire technology is progressing rapidly in North America and Europe, with significant developments from T Company and other major automakers like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Toyota. However, due to a slowdown in electrification, many projects are delayed by at least two years. In the short term, large-scale commercialization is primarily focused on the Chinese market [2][10] - **Strategic Partnerships**: Nexteer has become a strategic supplier for several Chinese automakers, including Geely, Great Wall, Chery, GAC, BYD, and new energy vehicle companies like Li Auto, Xpeng, and Xiaomi. The new energy vehicle companies are moving faster than traditional manufacturers, indicating continued opportunities in the existing customer base [2][11] - **Product Solutions**: To address price competition in the Chinese market for C-EPS, Nexteer offers various product solutions, including brushed and brushless motor EPS, as well as high-output versions of C-EPS. The company maintains an advantage in the high-end R-EPS sector and is expanding into DPEPS, having secured orders from four domestic clients [2][12] Additional Important Content - **Cost Management**: Nexteer has achieved a 20% cost reduction through modular design and autonomous motor production, with plans to gradually expand this initiative from the Chinese market to the Asia-Pacific and Western markets [4][16] - **Revenue Growth**: The revenue increase in 2025 is expected to primarily come from DP EPS, although overall growth will still rely on C EPS and R EPS. Strong customer growth was noted in the first half of the year, particularly with BYD and Xiaomi [4][15] - **Market Performance**: The North American market is expected to perform better than anticipated in the second half of the year, driven by improved production efficiency and demand. The European market is also projected to enhance profitability through operational improvements [17][19] - **Future Orders**: Nexteer anticipates securing its first EMB order from a traditional Chinese OEM by the end of 2025 or early 2026, with ongoing efforts to establish a foothold in overseas markets [23] - **Technological Advancements**: The rear-wheel steering technology is rapidly commercializing in China, with expectations of a demand for approximately 1 million units in the coming years. This technology is gaining traction among overseas clients due to effective cost control [25][26] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Nexteer's strategic initiatives, market dynamics, and future outlook in the automotive industry.

公司发布的半年报数据显示，上半年公司共实现营业收入21.62亿元，同比下降8.67%，实现净利润2.10 亿元，同比增长14.49%，基本每股收益为0.3700元，加权平均净资产收益率6.22%。（数据宝） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至发稿，飞龙股份最新股价为28.48元，上涨2.23%，本期筹码集中以来股价 累计上涨7.55%。具体到各交易日，6次上涨，3次下跌。 融资融券数据显示，该股最新（9月22日）两融余额为11.26亿元，其中，融资余额为11.26亿元，本期筹 码集中以来融资余额合计增加1.21亿元，增幅为12.04%。 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 飞龙股份9月23日披露，截至9月20日公司股东户数为110000户，较上期（9月10日）减少8000户，环比 降幅为6.78%。 ...

Company Overview - Tianlong Co., Ltd. is located in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, and was established on July 3, 2000. It was listed on January 10, 2017. The company specializes in the development and manufacturing of precision molds and the production and sales of precision plastic parts [1][2]. - The main business revenue composition includes: lightweight functional structural parts (41.08%), electronic control system components (38.87%), electrical precision components (14.18%), precision molds (4.80%), and others (0.96% for supplementary and 0.11% for other precision plastic structural parts) [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tianlong Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of 615 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.73%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 56.52 million yuan, down 2.46% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 213 million yuan in dividends, with 93.48 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of September 23, Tianlong's stock price increased by 2.25%, reaching 25.40 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 128 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.60%. The total market capitalization is 5.052 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, Tianlong's stock price has risen by 59.45%, with a recent decline of 2.46% over the last five trading days, a 13.04% increase over the last 20 days, and a 37.67% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Tianlong Co., Ltd. was 25,700, a decrease of 9.22% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 10.16% to 7,732 shares [2]. Industry Classification - Tianlong Co., Ltd. belongs to the automotive industry, specifically in the automotive parts sector, focusing on body accessories and trim. The company is associated with several concept sectors, including automotive thermal management, Changan Automobile concept, automotive parts, robotics concept, and BYD concept [2].

Group 1 - Zhejiang Shibao (002703) saw a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching 5.22 HKD with a trading volume of 39.09 million HKD [1] - The company announced during an analyst meeting that it has strong technical reserves in steer-by-wire and rear-wheel steering, with multiple mainstream automakers already designated for these technologies [1] - The first mass production project for steer-by-wire is expected to begin in the second half of 2026, while the rear-wheel steering project is anticipated to start mass production in Q4 of this year [1] Group 2 - The steer-by-wire and rear-wheel steering products are primarily aimed at L3+ autonomous driving vehicles and high-performance luxury models, indicating high technical barriers and a broad market outlook [1] - CITIC Securities noted that regulatory focus on the safety of autonomous driving is increasing, leading to stricter requirements for L2-level assisted driving in both promotional and operational aspects [1] - It is expected that L3 will become the main upgrade direction for intelligent driving from Q4 2025 to 2026, with commercial solutions requiring high redundancy in system safety, which will significantly enhance the value of intelligent driving components [1]

中信证券认为，监管层对于智能驾驶的安全性关注度提升，L2级辅助驾驶从宣传到具体操作层面都有 更严格的监管要求。在这种大背景下，预计L3将成为25Q4到2026年智驾的主要升级方向。L3商用解决 方案对于系统安全性冗余要求较高，预计将使得智驾芯片、域控制器、激光雷达和毫米波传感器、车载 Serdes、低压电源单车价值量显著提升，从而带来新一波投资机会。 消息面上，近日，浙江世宝在分析师会议中表示，公司在线控转向和后轮转向领域技术储备深厚，已获 多家主流车企定点，线控转向首个量产项目预计于2026年下半年开始量产，后轮转向首个量产项目预计 于今年四季度开始量产。这两类产品分别主要面向L3+智能驾驶车型及高性能豪华车型，技术壁垒高， 市场前景广阔。 智通财经APP获悉，浙江世宝(01057)盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.03%，报5.22港元，成交额3909.12万 港元。 ...

9月23日，华培动力盘中下跌2.09%，截至09:59，报18.72元/股，成交7733.48万元，换手率1.21%，总市 值63.37亿元。 华培动力所属申万行业为：汽车-汽车零部件-底盘与发动机系统。所属概念板块包括：小盘、航天军 工、汽车零部件、人形机器人、比亚迪概念等。 截至6月30日，华培动力股东户数1.75万，较上期减少14.09%；人均流通股19399股，较上期增加 16.40%。2025年1月-6月，华培动力实现营业收入5.78亿元，同比减少10.32%；归母净利润2017.59万 元，同比减少67.08%。 分红方面，华培动力A股上市后累计派现2.96亿元。近三年，累计派现1.29亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，华培动力十大流通股东中，鹏华碳中和主题混合A（016530）退 出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出605.27万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出688.82万元，占比 8.91%；大单买入1600.30万元，占比20.69%，卖出1516.74万元，占比19.61%。 华培动力今年以来股价涨72.85%，近5个交易日涨 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，江西董机汽车部件有限公司成立，法定代表人为董种伟，注册资本50万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：汽车零配件批发，汽车零配件零售，发电机及发电机组销售，电力电子元器 件销售，汽车装饰用品销售，音响设备销售，家用视听设备销售，家用电器销售，日用家电零售，非电 力家用器具销售，制冷、空调设备销售，环境保护专用设备销售，机械设备销售，机械电气设备销售， 机械零件、零部件销售，五金产品零售，化工产品销售（不含许可类化工产品），机械设备租赁，信息 系统集成服务，专业保洁、清洗、消毒服务，普通机械设备安装服务，技术服务、技术开发、技术咨 询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广，电子、机械设备维护（不含特种设备），通用设备修理，货物进 出口，技术进出口，进出口代理，日用品批发，日用品销售（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依 法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sailun Tire's stock price has shown a modest increase of 5.30% year-to-date, with recent fluctuations indicating a slight decline in the short term, while the company continues to maintain a strong market presence and financial performance [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Sailun Tire achieved a revenue of 17.587 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.05%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.90% to 1.831 billion yuan [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Sailun Tire has distributed a total of 4.758 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.758 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 23, Sailun Tire's stock price rose by 2.01% to 14.69 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 646.608 million yuan and a market capitalization of 48.302 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of 4.0048 million yuan from major funds, with significant buying activity noted in large orders [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Sailun Tire increased by 7.17% to 66,100, with an average of 49,754 shares held per shareholder, a decrease of 6.69% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 142 million shares, an increase of 28.224 million shares from the previous period [3].

9月23日，雷迪克盘中下跌2.07%，截至09:48，报62.60元/股，成交7008.87万元，换手率0.92%，总市值 83.50亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出564.23万元，大单买入1084.71万元，占比15.48%，卖出1648.94万元， 占比23.53%。 雷迪克今年以来股价涨175.21%，近5个交易日涨1.62%，近20日涨3.44%，近60日涨3.64%。 今年以来雷迪克已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月29日。 资料显示，杭州雷迪克节能科技股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州萧山经济技术开发区桥南区块春潮路89 号，成立日期2002年11月20日，上市日期2017年5月16日，公司主营业务涉及研发、生产和销售汽车轴 承。主营业务收入构成为：轴承类产品98.58%，其他1.42%。 雷迪克所属申万行业为：汽车-汽车零部件-轮胎轮毂。所属概念板块包括：小盘、机器人概念、专精特 新、灵巧手、人形机器人等。 截至6月30日，雷迪克股东户数9691.00，较上期增加12.24%；人均流通股12353股，较上期增加 15.82%。2025年1月-6月，雷迪克实现营业收入4.96亿元，同比增长 ...