作者：王琪瑶 从业资格证号：F03113363 交易咨询证号：Z0018762 研究联系方式：wangqiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 | 核心观点 | 短期偏空 | 7月上半月巴西中南部糖产量超预期，对原糖形成压制。国内配额外利润打开，7-8月进口糖加速到港，推动反 套到位，关注内外正套策略。中期处于寻底过程。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国外生产 | 偏空 | 25/26榨季巴西基本定产4100万吨；印度24/25产量不及预期但25/26存增产预期达3500万吨；泰国维持小幅增产 。 | | 国内产销 | 偏多 | 截至6月底，全国累计产糖1116万吨，同比增120万吨；累计销糖890万吨。 | | 进口利润 | 偏空 | 配额外利润打开，5月后进口放量，8月预期达到顶峰，9月回落。 | | 整体库存 | | 中性偏多6月全国工业库存226万吨，同期低位。 | | 醇油 | | 中性偏多醇油比小幅抬升至0.6768，乙醇存在微弱优势，接近平衡。 | | 原白价差 | 中性 | 原白价差在113美元/吨， ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have surged significantly this year, with a 24% increase in the price of white sugar as of July 28, reaching 7160 yuan per ton, raising concerns about supply and demand imbalances due to the onset of El Niño [1] Group 1: Sugar Market Dynamics - The El Niño phenomenon may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the sugar market, particularly affecting sugarcane production in Guangxi, which accounts for approximately 60% of China's sugar production [1] - The domestic sugar production has faced challenges, with a reported decrease of 897.28 million tons in sugarcane production during the 2022/2023 season compared to the previous year [3] - The average annual sugar production in China is around 10 million tons, while consumption is approximately 15 million tons, indicating a demand gap that needs to be filled by imports [7] Group 2: Agricultural Adaptations - Farmers in Guangxi are proactively drilling wells to secure water sources for irrigation, with one farmer reporting a well drilled to a depth of 160 meters, capable of supplying 30 to 45 cubic meters of water per hour [2][4] - The implementation of advanced irrigation systems, such as dual-use spray and drip irrigation, is becoming more common among sugarcane farmers to enhance water efficiency [3] - The company is encouraging farmers to adopt water-saving practices and is providing subsidies for new well drilling to mitigate the risks associated with potential droughts [8] Group 3: Impact of El Niño - The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed the formation of El Niño conditions, which could lead to extreme weather patterns affecting sugarcane growth [5] - Historical data indicates that El Niño has resulted in increased sugarcane production in 6 out of 11 instances since the 1980s, suggesting that its impact is not straightforward [6] - The company is preparing for various weather scenarios associated with El Niño, including drought and excessive rainfall, by developing comprehensive emergency response plans [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved sugar production in the 2023/2024 season due to better growing conditions and enhanced agricultural management practices [9] - The rising sugar prices are expected to positively impact the overall profitability of sugar companies, as they adapt to changing climatic conditions and market demands [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in domestic sugar prices has drawn market attention, with prices reaching historical highs due to supply-demand imbalances and other factors [1][2]. Price Trends - As of September 6, 2023, domestic sugar prices reached 7,390 CNY/ton, marking a 1.37% increase over two weeks and nearing the historical high of 7,830 CNY/ton set in August 2011 [1]. - The domestic sugar futures contract closed at 7,117 CNY/ton on September 6, with a 0.89% daily increase and a 4.37% rise over the past two weeks [2]. - International sugar prices also increased, with ICE raw sugar futures reaching 26.59 cents/pound, a 2.82% rise, and hitting a peak of 26.94 cents/pound, the highest since October 2011 [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - The increase in domestic sugar prices is primarily driven by a tightening supply due to a decrease in both production and imports. The total sugar production for the 2022-2023 season was 8.97 million tons, a 6.17% decrease year-on-year, largely due to reduced output in Guangxi, which accounts for 60% of the country's sugar production [2][3]. - Sugar imports fell to 2.98 million tons by the end of July 2023, a 23% decrease year-on-year, as rising international prices deterred import activity [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect domestic sugar prices to remain strong in the short term, supported by seasonal demand and low inventory levels. The upcoming new sugar season starting in October may initially maintain upward price pressure [4][5]. - The sugar industry is likely to continue benefiting from rising prices, with several listed companies reporting significant profit increases in the first half of 2023. Six out of eight companies related to sugar production and sales reported year-on-year profit growth [5]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of August 2023, the sugar production and sales rate in Guangxi was 90.15%, up 12.2 percentage points year-on-year, while industrial inventory dropped to 51.94 million tons, a decrease of 83 million tons [5]. - The current low inventory levels compared to historical averages suggest that sugar factories are under less pressure to sell, contributing to a strong price support mentality among producers [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively managing risks associated with sugar price fluctuations by implementing various measures to stabilize operations and ensure sustainable development [1]. Group 1: Sugar Price and Inventory - The current price of white sugar is maintained above 5950 yuan per ton, and there has not been a significant drop in the spot price [1]. - The company has limited inventory, indicating a proactive approach to managing stock levels in response to market conditions [1]. Group 2: Risk Management Measures - The company is taking steps to stabilize sugarcane planting area and improve both sugarcane yield and sugar content [1]. - It is optimizing the management processes for harvesting, transportation, and sugar extraction to reduce production management costs [1]. - The company is closely monitoring sugar price trends and market dynamics to strategically time sales and ensure stable operations [1].

Report Overview - The report is the Sugar Industry Daily Report on August 11, 2025, covering various aspects of the sugar industry including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and market news [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Report's Core View - Import expectations are increasing, spot prices are weak, and the far - month contracts corresponding to the new crushing season are mainly weak in the short term. It is recommended to conduct rebound short - selling transactions [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,573 yuan/ton with no change; the main contract's open interest is 307,158 lots, an increase of 6,182 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 18,240 sheets, a decrease of 305 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 36,182 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,584 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5,683 yuan/ton. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5,825 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 6,010 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 billion tons, an increase of 0.2347 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 12.62%, an increase of 6.07 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 12.62%, an increase of 6.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.54% with no change [2] Industry News - According to Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80 (previously 79), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.5777 billion tons (previously 3.5531 billion tons). Last Friday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed up 1.5%, and on Monday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05%. Globally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of sugar cane in the 2025/26 season, leading to a short - term rebound in raw sugar prices [2] Viewpoint Summary - Conab Analytics reports that the decline in the per - unit yield of sugar cane in Brazil may reduce Brazil's 2025/26 sugar cane output to less than 600 million tons, far lower than Conab's forecast of 663.4 million tons. Domestically, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, and the import pressure is released. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has inventory - building needs, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks is picking up. In terms of inventory, the previous production and sales progress was good, and the current inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. According to the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' sugar supply - demand report, the 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 1,120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years [2]

Report Information - Report Title: [White Sugar Weekly Report 20250808] Processed Sugar Captures Market, Spot Quotes Decline Steadily [1][2][10][26][39][62][79][89][105][116][128][141][148] - Date: 2025 - 08 - 08 [1][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR509 contract of white sugar is likely to decline in the short term but has limited downside space, with support at the 5600 price level [3]. - Globally, the 2025/26 sugar season is expected to have a loose supply - demand pattern, with the SR2509 contract expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range [3]. - Key factors to monitor include Brazil's production, India's production, EU policies, and domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. White Sugar Weekly Data Summary - **Futures Prices**: This week, the 1 - month closing price was 5573 yuan/ton, the 5 - month closing price was 5530 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month closing price was 5680 yuan/ton. Compared with intraday prices, the 1 - month price decreased by 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - month price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month price decreased by 53 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the spot prices of white sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming decreased by 70 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 70 yuan/ton respectively compared with last week [7]. - **Basis**: As of August 8, the basis of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 280 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts was 18,615, a decrease of 858 compared with last week [7]. 2. International Supply Brazil - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The output was set at 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with the previous season, but still within a historically high - output range [32]. - **Production in the 2025/26 Season**: As of the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in the first half of July was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 42 million tons, which will put pressure on raw sugar prices [33]. - **UNICA Bi - weekly Data**: In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The cumulative sugar production from the beginning of the 2025/26 season to the first half of July was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [42][43]. - **Alcohol - to - Oil Ratio and Ethanol - to - Sugar Price**: As of August 1, the alcohol - to - oil ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.57%, and the ethanol - to - sugar price was about 14.10 cents/pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 2.04 cents/pound over the ethanol - to - sugar price [58]. - **Export and Inventory**: In July, Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses, a decrease of 4.98% compared with the same period last year. As of August 6, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 5.5777 million tons [77]. As of July 15, the sugar inventory in Brazil was 339,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years [73]. India and Thailand - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, the estimated net sugar production was about 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to reach about 34.9 million tons, an 18% increase [76]. - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar production was 10.0418 million tons, a significant increase compared with last year. In the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. Global Production - **2024/25 Season**: The global sugar supply was still in a loose pattern, but the tightness was marginally reduced from the previous period [87]. - **2025/26 Season**: The global sugar supply is expected to turn loose, with different institutions predicting supply surpluses ranging from 115,000 to 7.5 million tons [87]. 3. Domestic Supply - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.56%, and the cumulative sales rate was 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the same period last year [103]. - **Import**: The quota - free import profit window opened earlier, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. In June, the domestic sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons [119]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Import**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. The import of three types of goods under the 170290 tariff item remained at a low level, while the import of two types of goods under the 2106906 tariff item increased significantly [134]. 4. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: The market supply is sufficient, and sugar mills face great pressure in sales. Traders and middlemen have little intention to stock up, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed [143]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the national industrial inventory was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [145].

白糖：估值有安全边际 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.27 | 0.24 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 107 | 25 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5930 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 43 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5573 | -94 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 357 | 74 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 11 日 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 高频信息：巴西中南部 7 月上半月压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over declining sugarcane production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, have led to a rise in raw sugar futures for the first time in four days, with prices increasing by 1.2% to 16.20 cents per pound [1] - Covrig Analytics analyst Claudiu Covrig noted that despite high sugarcane crushing volumes during the peak season, ongoing reports of production declines may lead to a sudden depletion of sugarcane harvests in Brazil by Q4 [1][3] - The Brazilian government's agricultural forecasting agency, Conab, projected a total sugarcane production of 663.4 million tons for the 2025-2026 season, a 2% decrease from the previous year, with some forecasts suggesting production could fall below 600 million tons [3] Group 2 - The overall sugar price has seen a decline due to expectations of global oversupply, although the strengthening of the Brazilian real may limit this decrease by raising the minimum price threshold for ethanol [3] - The relative pricing of ethanol and raw sugar directly influences sugar production decisions, with mills adjusting their production based on the ethanol-to-sugar price ratio [3] - Current assessments of ethanol raw material prices have decreased to approximately 15.5 cents per pound, down from the previous 15 cents [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] Group 2: Core View - The current sugar market shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic". International sugar prices are dominated by Brazil's production increase and crude oil fluctuations, while the domestic market faces the dual pressures of processed sugar impact and weak demand. In the medium to long term, with a global surplus, the upside for sugar prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading approach [4] Group 3: Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - On August 7, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Chenming, Yunnan it was 5830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5715 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 6090 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - SR09 was at 5667, down 16; SR01 was down 43; SR09 - 01 was 82, up 27 [4] Group 4: Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.202, down 0.0050; the real - RMB exchange rate was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the rupee - RMB exchange rate was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The ice raw sugar主力 was at 16.04, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 was at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 was at 66.96, unchanged [4]