新华财经北京6月19日电 英国货币政策委员会（MPC）6月议息会议以6:3投票结果维持银行利率在4.25%，三名委员主张降息25 基点至4%。这一决策符合市场主流预期——会前利率期货显示，市场定价隐含年内降息50基点的概率达68%，但对本次会议维持 利率的定价概率高达82%。 关键政策逻辑： 通胀韧性与政策滞后效应：5月CPI同比升至3.4%（3月为2.6%），主要受能源价格反弹及regulatedprices上调推动，但核心通胀 3.5%较5月报告预期低0.2个百分点，显示需求端压力边际缓解。MPC认为，前期货币政策紧缩的滞后效应仍在持续挤压通胀，当 前维持限制性政策可确保通胀向2%目标可持续回落。 劳动力市场松动信号：5月就业人数单月减少10.9万，为2020年5月以来最大降幅，预示薪资增长压力将进一步缓和。私人部门平 均周薪增速从3月的5.5%降至4月的5.1%，高频数据显示年化增速维持在5%左右。 市场即时反应： 全球环境：地缘与贸易风险交织 中东冲突升级推动布伦特原油价格突破80美元/桶，欧洲天然气价格上涨11%，预计将推高英国CPI约0.3个百分点； 贸易政策不确定性指数仍处于历史高位，英国对美出 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.79% to 3362.11 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 1.50%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.70% [1] - The total trading volume across A-shares was 12,809 billion, slightly up from 12,218 billion the previous day [1] - In terms of sector performance, oil and gas sectors showed strength, while hotel and restaurant, and banking sectors performed relatively better [1] Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, lasting for 7 days, contributing to market volatility and increased risk aversion [1] - A-shares are affected by geopolitical tensions, though to a lesser extent compared to Hong Kong stocks, which saw a notable decline [1] Federal Reserve Update - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2] - The "dot plot" indicates that most Fed members expect a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, likely in two 25 basis point increments [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed will not cut rates in July, with potential cuts anticipated in September [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian-Ukrainian conflict concept has shown a positive trend, with a 0.64% increase, ranking third among concept sectors, driven by significant stock performances from companies like Shouhua Gas and Junyou Co. [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - The Russian-Ukrainian conflict concept saw 30 stocks rise, with Shouhua Gas hitting a 20% limit up, while Junyou Co. and Blue Flame Holdings also reached their limit up [1] - Notable gainers included Tongyuan Petroleum (up 11.35%), Tianhao Energy (up 9.23%), and New Jin Power (up 8.75%) [1] - Decliners in the sector included Shenke Co. (down 7.32%), Meinong Bio (down 5.81%), and Xingye Silver Tin (down 5.58%) [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The Russian-Ukrainian conflict concept experienced a net outflow of 1.256 billion yuan, with 20 stocks receiving net inflows and 10 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflows [2] - China Petroleum led the net inflow with 178 million yuan, followed by Shouhua Gas (88.75 million yuan), Blue Flame Holdings (84.93 million yuan), and Huibo Pu (41.24 million yuan) [2][3] Group 3: Net Inflow Ratios - Blue Flame Holdings, Jinhong Gas, and Shouhua Gas had the highest net inflow ratios at 19.60%, 17.60%, and 15.28% respectively [3] - China Petroleum recorded a net inflow ratio of 8.46% with a 0.76% increase in stock price [3]

活动期间，中国与中亚国家工商界代表围绕绿色能源发展、信息技术合作等议题开展深入研讨。在 茹曼加林、任鸿斌及中亚各国实业家委员会代表的共同见证下，中国与中亚国家企业签署合作谅解备忘 录或合作协议32项。会议期间，还举办中国—中亚实业家委员会中方理事会成立大会暨"走进陕西"经贸 合作对接会，哈萨克斯坦贸易和一体化部第一副部长比扎诺娃、"阿塔梅肯"国家企业家协会主席巴塔洛 夫、图尔克斯坦州副州长科兹别克夫等中亚国家商协会代表出席，任鸿斌为中国进出口银行、中信集 团、中石油等13家副主席单位和中方联席秘书处授牌。 中国—中亚实业家委员会由中国贸促会与哈萨克斯坦"阿塔梅肯"国家企业家协会、吉尔吉斯斯坦工 商会、塔吉克斯坦工商会、土库曼斯坦工商会、乌兹别克斯坦工商会于2023年5月共同发起成立，是中 国与中亚五国工商界多双边合作交流的全新高质量平台，为促进各方开展全方位互利共赢合作提供机制 化保障。 中国—中亚实业家委员会第二次会议由哈萨克斯坦"阿塔梅肯"国家企业家协会主办，设置开幕式、 签约仪式、全体会议、专题研讨、地方推介、对接洽谈等多个环节，中国与中亚国家政府部门代表、工 商界代表、专家学者、媒体人员等近千人与会。 ...

随着以伊冲突持续爆发，直接影响中东地区成品油供给，加剧柴油、汽油等裂解利润波动风险。全球石油资源开始吃紧，全球资金涌入原油市场做多。 近期，英国巴克莱银行在一份报告中指出，如果伊朗石油出口减半，预计布伦特原油价格将升至每桶85美元。该行还补充说，在伊朗发生更广泛冲突的最 坏情况下，预计价格将突破每桶100美元。 近期布伦特原油期货价格不断走高 数据来源：Wind 截至2025.6.18 而从交易角度看，黄金和原油，不仅是重要的国家战略资源，还是大宗商品市场两大核心资产。另一方面，作为为数不多可以通过公募配置的大宗商品之 一，原油与黄金一样，具有抗通胀属性。因此，不少投资者也跃跃欲试。那么关于油气类基金究竟怎么选呢？ 两大油气阵营怎么选？ 目前，国内共有16只油气主题基金，分为直接跟踪原油价格的基金，以及跟踪油气公司股票的基金。 这二者有何不同？就和场内跟踪黄金指数和跟踪黄金股的基金是一个道理。相对而言跟踪原油价格的基金与海外原油的价格产生强挂钩，本身和股市的关 联度并不大。换而言之，无论市场如何波动，只要原油价格坚挺，相对的基金就会表现稳健，这类基金适合作为避险资产或通胀对冲工具。 而跟踪原油股的基金则不同， ...

Core Insights - Kazakhstan will retain its OPEC+ membership, indicating continued collaboration within the group [1] - Iran's oil minister suggests that some regions may face limited restrictions to ensure long-term continuity, but widespread fuel issues are not anticipated [1] - The former Iranian economy minister claims that oil tankers and LNG shipments should only pass through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran's permission, though this statement lacks official confirmation [1] - Israel's energy minister reports that the share of renewable energy for electricity generation has increased from less than 20% before the conflict to 40% now, with domestic energy needs prioritized over exports [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak states that Russia and the OPEC+ alliance have potential for production growth, and oil prices reaching $100 per barrel will depend on market reactions to risks and uncertainties [1] Group 1 - Kazakhstan will maintain its OPEC+ membership, reflecting ongoing cooperation within the oil-producing nations [1] - Iran's oil minister indicates limited regional restrictions to ensure fuel supply continuity, with no widespread issues expected [1] - The former Iranian economy minister's statement on oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains unconfirmed [1] Group 2 - Israel's renewable energy share for power generation has risen to 40%, with a focus on meeting domestic energy demands [1] - Russia's potential for production growth within the OPEC+ framework is highlighted, with oil price fluctuations tied to market risk perceptions [1] - Novak reassures that there is no risk of decline in Russian oil exports or domestic supply shortages, maintaining a balance in the global oil market [1]

Industry News - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice to collect excellent practice cases for the "Water-Wind-Solar+" innovative development initiative, emphasizing the need for cases that demonstrate significant achievements in utilizing hydropower to drive the development of surrounding wind and solar resources [3] - New national standards for energy measurement instruments in the construction materials, thermal power generation, and logistics industries have been implemented since June, detailing the types and management requirements for energy measurement [3] Company News - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed multiple energy cooperation agreements with Kazakhstan, including framework agreements for the expansion of the Chimkent refinery and the implementation of the Aktyubinsk urea project, aiming to enhance collaboration in natural gas exploration and refining [4] - The first mixed pumped storage power station in Fujian Province, the Huadian Fujian Gutianxi project, has commenced construction, with a planned capacity of 250 megawatts and an expected annual power generation of 250 million kilowatt-hours [4] Local News - Since 2021, the Beijing Electric Power Trading Center has traded a total of 3,794 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity and 249 million green certificates [6] - Hunan Province has introduced a three-year action plan for the hydrogen energy industry, aiming to achieve significant progress by 2027 and establish a development pattern of "one port, two corridors, and multiple zones" [6] - The Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Northwest Regulatory Bureau of the National Energy Administration have issued a plan to support virtual power plants in participating in the electricity market [6] - Guizhou Province's renewable energy installed capacity has surpassed 30 million kilowatts, becoming the largest installed power source in the region, accounting for 39.5% of the total installed capacity [7] International News - China's investment in Central Asian countries has exceeded $30 billion, focusing on green development and digital economy projects [4] - The Prime Minister of Malaysia has expressed a firm stance against protectionism and geopolitical tensions that disrupt global clean energy development [4] - Ecuador's main oil pipeline has ruptured, leading to a suspension of crude oil transportation, with emergency measures being activated [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shell's CEO emphasizes a cautious approach to shipping in the Middle East, indicating a reluctance to take on inappropriate risks while expressing a desire to expand potential positions in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The CEO of Shell highlights the importance of being very careful in shipping operations within the Middle East region [1] - The company is focused on avoiding any inappropriate risks associated with its operations in the region [1] - Shell aims to continue expanding its potential presence in the U.S. market [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down by 44.14 points (0.10%) and the Nasdaq up by 25.18 points (0.13%) [2] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, maintaining it at 4.25%-4.5% since December of the previous year, amid rising inflation expectations and slowing economic growth [4][5] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts by the end of 2025, but has reduced the total expected cuts to four, with a cumulative decrease of 1 percentage point [5][6] Group 2 - Economic forecasts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest increasing stagflation pressures, with GDP growth for 2024 expected at only 1.4% and inflation at 3%, reflecting a downward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [7] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than earlier predictions [7] - The FOMC's statement indicates a generally "steady" economic growth, with low unemployment and slightly rising inflation, while expressing reduced concerns over economic volatility and trade policy risks [8] Group 3 - Recent economic data shows a slight decrease in initial jobless claims, stabilizing at around 245,000, which aligns with economists' median estimates [15][16] - New housing starts fell to an annualized rate of 1.256 million units, down from 1.392 million units the previous month, indicating a 9.8% decline [18][19] - The S&P 500 index saw declines in seven out of eleven sectors, with energy and communication services leading the losses [21]

新华财经纽约6月18日电（刘亚南张怡然）由于以色列与伊朗冲突持续和上周美国商业原油库存大幅下 降，国际油价18日早盘小幅上涨，随后快速走低，午后持续回升并由跌转涨，收盘时国际油价均上涨。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨30美分，收于每桶75.14美元，涨幅为 0.4%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨25美分，收于每桶76.70美元，涨幅为0.33%。 以色列与伊朗的激烈交火已持续六天，以色列空袭重创德黑兰南帕尔斯天然气田，伊朗方面随后宣布局 部暂停生产。该气田是全球最大天然气田，由伊朗与卡塔尔共同开发。 美国总统特朗普18日表示，伊朗方面已经联系他并甚至表示可以派一个代表团来白宫进行谈判。特朗普 还说，自己此前考虑对伊朗核实施进行军事打击，但尚未作出最终决定。通过谈判解决伊朗核问题还为 时不晚。 能源市场正评估美国直接卷入冲突的可能性，以及可能引发的重大供应中断——尤其是最糟糕的情形， 例如伊朗封锁连接波斯湾与阿曼湾的战略要冲霍尔木兹海峡。 荷兰商业银行大宗商品策略主管沃伦·帕特森（Warren Patterson）表示，目前油市最担忧的情形是霍尔 木兹海峡运输中断，这条海上 ...