光热发电行业近况更新 20251224 摘要 中国光热发电以塔式为主（57.4%），槽式和线性菲涅尔占比分别为 22.7%和 19.9%，与国际上槽式技术应用最广（超 70%）存在差异。 未来多种技术路线将并存，不太可能出现单一技术路线统一市场局面。 光热发电成本持续下降，从首批示范项目度电成本 1.10 元降至目前的 0.90 元，青海探索大容量独立调峰模式，补贴后度电成本为 0.55 元。 预计 2030 年降至 0.45 元/千瓦时，2035 年进一步降至 0.38 元/千瓦 时。 光热电站建设成本显著下降，首批示范项目每千瓦 2-3 万元，第二阶段 降至 1.5-2 万元，大容量独立调峰模式下成本进一步降低。若要在 2030 年实现与煤炭相当的度电成本，需要将单位千瓦装机成本降至 10,000 元左右，即再降低大约 1/3。 青海省政府对光热发电提供明确补贴，350 兆瓦电站每度电补贴 0.55 元，投资收益率最佳。国家能源局新政策预计推动各省明确光热相关政 策，包括容量补偿和辅助服务收益来源，促进行业发展。 Q&A 请介绍一下光热发电的技术原理和主要技术路线。 太阳能光热发电是将太阳能转换为热能，通 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)" which will take effect on February 1, 2026, featuring a total of 1,679 entries, an increase of 205 entries compared to the 2022 version [1] - The new directory aims to optimize the directional guidance for foreign investment, encouraging investments in advanced manufacturing and modern services, thereby enhancing the development level of industrial and supply chains [1][4] - The directory also emphasizes attracting foreign investment to the central and western regions, Northeast China, and Hainan Province, reflecting a proactive attitude towards expanding international cooperation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Implications - The revision of the directory is expected to attract global innovative elements by incorporating new technologies, business models, and new formats, which will help meet the evolving demands in sectors such as healthcare and elder care, thereby improving the quality of life and expanding domestic demand [6] - Foreign enterprises have expressed increased confidence in investing in China due to the new directory, indicating a positive outlook for future investments [8] - The encouragement of foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern services aligns with the business directions of many foreign companies, reinforcing their confidence in development [10] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - Significant progress has been made in China's energy sector, with the discovery of the Qinhuangdao 29-6 oil field, which is a billion-ton oil field with a single well testing a daily output of approximately 370 tons [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have introduced policies to systematically support the large-scale development of solar thermal power, aiming for a total installed capacity of around 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [12]

推动光热发电高质量规模化发展 助力加快构建新型电力系统 ──《关于促进光热发电规模化发展的若干意见》解读 近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《关于促进光热发电规模化发展的若干意见》（以下简称 《若干意见》 ），明确 了新型电力系统中光热发电的系统功能，提出了发展路径和政策体系，指出了光热发电高质量、规模化发展的重点任务， 对 " 十五五 " 实现碳达峰目标下光热发电发挥自身优势、提升新能源可靠替代能力、助力新型电力系统加速构建具有重大 意义。 一、 准确认识 光热发电发展新形势 我国光热产业起步虽然较欧美略晚一些，但发展速度并不慢。自 " 十二五 " 初期以特许权招标方式探索开始，历经首批光 热发电示范项目、光热与风电光伏一体化开发等发展阶段，截至 2025 年 10 月底，我国在运光热电站装机约 162 万千 瓦，位居全球第三，在建装机规模约 270 万千瓦，占全球在建装机的 90% 以上。同时，我国光热发电技术路线齐全，技 术水平处于国际先进行列，已基本形成自主知识产权，产业链发展基本完备，设备与材料国产化率接近 100% ，形成了全 球光热看中国的良好局面。 近年来，我国光热发电度电成本快速下降。 2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，光热发电兼具调节电源与长时储能双重功能，在电力系统中 承担调节功能，也具备扮演基荷电源的潜力，是强化新能源消纳保障的可靠资源，近年来在政策支持 下，光热作为新能源基地配套调节电源快速发展；技术进步、国产化、规模化等因素推动光热度电成本 快速下降，虽然目前与主流电源仍有差距，但后续有望受益成本下降&调节价值提升而增强电源竞争 力，助力行业健康发展。 该行表示，电力系统容量&调节资源短缺问题或将持续暴露，推动调峰等辅助服务需求大幅增长。光热 发电调节能力优秀，在电力系统中拥有发挥价值的空间，有望在政策支持、技术进步、规模化发展等因 素推动下持续实现造价下行及获取较高电价，推动行业长期持续成长。深耕光热产业链的制造商有望充 分受益；布局光热领域较早的运营商有望获得技术与经验积累方面的优势。 事件： 近日，国家发改委、国家能源局印发《关于促进光热发电规模化发展的若干意见》(下文简称《意 见》)，明确我国光热发电行业的总体定位、发展目标、机制保障等内容，旨在推动光热发电行业规模 化发展，为新能源消纳增添保障。 由于建设成本较高且技术不成熟，早期我国光热发电装机规模增速较慢，202 ...

中信证券研报指出，近年来，随着光热产业链基本实现全面国产化，叠加需求增长推动产业链技术进步 与规模化发展，光热度电成本正快速下降，CSTA测算当前光热独立运行时度电成本已降至0.53元/kWh 左右。虽然光热成本大幅下降后仍显著高于其他电源，在作为光伏配套调节电源摊薄成本以外的情境 下，经济性仍然较弱，但我们预计在政策支持下光热经济性将持续提升。 ...

人民财讯12月25日电，中信证券研报认为，光热发电兼具调节电源与长时储能双重功能，在电力系统中 承担调节功能，也具备扮演基荷电源的潜力，是强化新能源消纳保障的可靠资源，近年来在政策支持 下，光热作为新能源基地配套调节电源快速发展；技术进步、国产化、规模化等因素推动光热度电成本 快速下降，虽然目前与主流电源仍有差距，但后续有望受益成本下降和调节价值提升而增强电源竞争 力，助力行业健康发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)", which will take effect on February 1, 2026, aiming to enhance foreign investment in China [1]. Group 1: Directory Changes - The new directory includes a total of 1,679 entries, an increase of 205 entries compared to the 2022 version, with 303 entries modified [2]. - The directory encourages foreign investment in advanced manufacturing, modern services, and specific regions such as the central and western areas, Northeast China, and Hainan Province [3]. Group 2: Investment Guidance - The updated directory aims to optimize the directional guidance for foreign investment, promoting advanced manufacturing and modern services, thereby enhancing the development level of industrial and supply chains [3]. - It is designed to provide clear, stable, and transparent investment expectations for investors, which is crucial for attracting global innovation elements and meeting the evolving domestic demands in sectors like healthcare and elderly services [5]. Group 3: Investor Confidence - Many foreign business leaders expressed that the new directory has strengthened their confidence and expectations for investing in China, indicating a promising future for investments [7]. - The encouragement of foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern services aligns well with the business directions of several foreign companies, further solidifying their development confidence [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The electrochemical energy storage capacity in China is expected to increase by 130-140 GWh by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 100% [2][4] - Global energy storage capacity is projected to grow from 500 GWh to nearly 800 GWh, indicating robust growth in both domestic and international markets [5] Core Insights and Arguments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" in China aims for a total installed capacity of 15 GW for solar thermal power by 2030, with the goal of achieving cost parity with coal power and ensuring technological independence and international leadership [2][6] - Key factors for developing solar thermal power include resource surveys, incentive mechanisms, fair market participation, capacity compensation, and establishing information-sharing platforms [2][8] - The target for solar thermal power is to reduce costs below that of coal power by 2023, necessitating advancements in high-parameter and large-capacity technologies [2][10] Company-Specific Insights - Xizi Energy holds a nearly 40% market share in the solar thermal absorber market and has the capacity to produce 580 sets of solar thermal absorbers, heat exchangers, and boilers annually [2][11] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 400 million CNY in 2025, 600 million CNY in 2026, and 700 million CNY in 2027, benefiting from increased equipment shipments following the introduction of solar thermal policies [4][12] - Xizi Energy's reasonable stock price expectation is between 19-20 CNY, indicating potential upside from current levels [4][14] Additional Important Points - The importance of energy storage technology is underscored by the need for approximately 80 GW of storage power annually to support grid stability in China [3] - The shift in emerging markets from traditional coal and gas power to intermittent sources like wind and solar is driving demand for energy storage solutions [3] - Xizi Energy is diversifying its portfolio by expanding into nuclear energy, having established Xizi Nuclear and obtained relevant manufacturing licenses [2][11][13]

21世纪经济报道记者雷椰 北京报道 相较于风电、光伏等已广为人知的新能源形式，光热发电正凭借其独特价值崭露头角。光热发电兼具调峰电源和长时储能双重 功能，能够有效平抑风电、光伏发电等新能源出力的波动性，是加快构建新型电力系统的重要支撑。 经过多年发展，我国已成功掌握塔式、槽式、菲涅尔式等主流光热发电技术，已建成全球领先的光热发电产业链，电站单位千 瓦建设成本从10年前的约3万元下降至1.5万元，度电成本降至0.6元上下，已初步具备规模化发展的基础。 尽管进步显著，但光热发电的发展仍面临现实挑战。 国家能源局相关负责人表示，我国光热发展还面临初始投资大、市场竞争能力偏弱、系统支撑调节价值未充分体现、产业技术 水平仍需提升的问题。在我国能源结构加速绿色低碳转型的关键时期，为助力能源强国建设，加快构建新型电力系统，推动光 热发电规模化发展，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发了《意见》。 12月23日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发《关于促进光热发电规模化发展的若干意见》（以下简称《意见》），为推 动光热发电规模化发展明确了目标与实施路径。 《意见》提出到2030年，我国光热发电发展总装机规模力争达到1500万千 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued opinions to promote the large-scale development of solar thermal power, aiming for a total installed capacity of approximately 15 million kilowatts by 2030, with electricity costs comparable to coal power [1] Group 1 - The target for solar thermal power installed capacity is set at around 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [1] - The cost of electricity generated from solar thermal power is expected to be on par with that of coal power [1] - China has established a globally leading solar thermal power industry chain after years of development [1]