近日，四川金顶发布了2025年半年度报告，交出了一份亮眼的成绩单：公司成功实现扭亏为盈，营业收 入与净利润双双大幅增长。这一转变的背后，既有宏观基建环境的回暖支撑，更得益于公司近年来在智 慧矿业、绿色生产等创新举措上的持续发力。 业绩大增扭亏为盈 半年报显示，2025上半年，四川金顶实现营业收入2.78亿元，同比增长84.75%；归属于上市公司股东的 净利润为2630.55万元，成功扭转了去年同期亏损的局面。 目前，四川金顶已形成以石灰石开采、加工、销售及仓储物流为一体的产业布局。 公司核心资产石灰石矿山具备储量大、品位高、运距短和采场规模大等优势。在持续强化生产经营的同 时，积极拓展石灰石、砂石骨料及物流运输市场。2025年上半年，四川金顶积极推进项目建设，着力强 化主营业务的发展壮大和多区域建材业务的布局，不断提升核心竞争力。截至目前，金顶顺采废石（尾 矿）综合利用生产线建设项目已建成投产，洛阳金鼎环保建材产业基地项目建设也已投入试生产。 在活性氧化钙业务方面，公司依托现有场地和矿山高品位原料，凸显资源竞争优势。随着经济发达地区 设备自动化程度不断提高，四川金顶正持续推进氧化钙节能改造设备更新项目，对原6 ...

近期人民币汇率加速升值，中间价和 CNH 上周均回到 7.10 附近，CNY 回到 7.13 附近。年内汇率存在破 7 的可能性。 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 相关报告 1、《人民币何时破 7？——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-08-31 2、《港股上市央国企动态系列 报告之 1——东风集团股份宣布 私有化退市，港股央国企推进 战略整合》2025-08-31 3、《美联储独立性或受挑战； 特朗普关税再被判违法——— 国际时政周评》2025-08-31 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 人民币中间价为何加速升值 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 33 期） 频率：每周 上周美元兑人民币汇率中间价升值至 7.10 附近，环比升值 0.4%，而年初至 今中间价升值幅度为 1.2%，换句话说，上周中间价的升值幅度约为年初至 今的三分之一左右。受中间价加速升值的影响，上周美元兑人民币即期汇 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 市场连续上行后，目前对未来的想法如下： 1、 短期有望新高，未来几周偏向于是重心上移、斜率放缓、偏震荡的过程。 一方面，市场刚刚突破 10年箱体区间，有阶段性震荡非常合理 指数方面，目前所有指数都打过了 10月8日的新高，唯独上证50还没有，所以后一阶段，上证50有补涨要求。 风格和板块方面，从过去 14年的胜率数据看，9月低市盈率、消费、煤炭、建材这几个方向胜率相对高，但胜率很低的方向是高市盈率的 风格，胜率仅有27%。叠加8月科技方向如火如荼，进入9月或将迎来短期的分化震荡。当然，中期角度，人工智能方向依然是行情的重要 主线。 3、 港股需要重新重视 过去 3个月，港股基本横盘震荡，主要还是两方面原因： 一方面，港股是最早打过 2021年高点的指数，而其他指数相对落后。现在主要宽基指数才逐步打掉去年10月高点，随着最后一个指数 ——上证50未来突破10月8日高点，港股或将重新带领指数上攻。 另外，指数 3900以上也接近6 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector's transaction volume has exceeded 40%, indicating strong market interest but not necessarily signaling a peak [1][2] - The overall A-share market is expected to enter an active replenishment cycle by the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by improving domestic fundamentals and liquidity [1][4] Financial Performance - In the 2025 mid-year report, non-financial equity revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 2.3%, showing a decline compared to the first quarter [1][5] - The return on equity (ROE) for the entire A-share non-financial sector is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter after a slowdown in its decline [1][5] Market Dynamics - The current market shows high congestion in components, semiconductors, and communication devices, while software, gaming, and fintech applications are less congested [3] - The non-financial industry prosperity index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating a potential turning point in the revenue cycle [3][10] Inventory and Capacity Cycles - Most sectors are experiencing a dual decline in revenue and inventory growth, reflecting a deepening active destocking phase [6] - The construction and consumption sectors have been in active destocking for five consecutive quarters, while the export chain and TMT sectors remain in a high active replenishment state [6][7] Investment Opportunities - Industries such as chemicals and steel, which have seen a decline in revenue but an increase in advance payments, are expected to experience a revenue growth turning point in the next two quarters [8] - The computer, optical, and electrical engineering sectors are anticipated to continue in a state of dual improvement in supply and demand [8] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is showing positive trends, with significant capital expenditure and production increases in related sectors such as communication equipment and storage devices [11][12] - The engineering machinery sector is recovering, with increased sales and operational hours observed in the third quarter [18] Consumer Trends - Consumer goods sectors, including beer, food, and dairy products, are showing signs of recovery, closely linked to restaurant data [19] - The real estate market is experiencing mixed signals, with new home sales declining year-on-year but showing signs of stabilization in first-tier cities [20] Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on strong sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and military-related industries, while also considering undervalued consumer and non-bank financial sectors benefiting from currency appreciation [23][24]

Q&A 如何看待中国股市在未来一段时间内的表现？ 我们坚定认为中国股市不会止步于当前水平，预计市场将继续走高，并有望突 破 4,000 点。我们建议增加对中盘股和低位蓝筹股的配置比例，这些股票可能 成为下一阶段市场上升的重要力量。行情将出现扩散，但不会发生风格切换。 随着宽松预期和经济能见度的提高，新兴科技仍是主线，而周期金融则可能成 为黑马。此外，AI 应用侧、周期股和中字头股票也值得关注。 中国市场看多的逻辑是什么？ 我们对中国市场看多的逻辑主要基于以下三点：首先，中国转型进展明显加快， 特别是在集成电路、人工智能、创新药和国防军工等领域。这些新产业的发展 降低了社会发展的不确定性。其次，无风险收益系统性下沉，使长期资本和家 庭部门入市成为历史性趋势。今年 4 月以来，我们一直强调这一逻辑，现在各 周期论剑｜布局周期的确定性 20250831 摘要 中国转型加速，集成电路、人工智能等新兴产业降低不确定性；无风险 收益下沉，长期资本入市成趋势；资本市场改革推动价值观念转变，三 因素耦合或形成至少两年牛市。 监管层或维持当前上升势头，实质性干预可能性小；美联储降息概率增 加，中国央行宽松空间打开，可能重启国债 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies' profitability showed a modest increase in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while non-financial profits grew by only 1.5% [1][5][20]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector grew by 2.8%, 4.2%, and 1.5% respectively [1][5]. - Non-financial operating revenue experienced a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit growth rates for the entire A-share market, financial sector, and non-financial sector were 1.6%, 5.7%, and -1.6% respectively, indicating a negative growth for non-financial profits [1][19]. Sector Analysis - The real estate and export sectors saw a slowdown in growth compared to Q1, with PPI's year-on-year decline further widening, impacting non-financial revenue growth and profit margins [1]. - The financial sector remained active in Q2, with the securities and insurance industries experiencing a profit growth of 16.6%, driven by a 49.2% increase in securities profits and a 5.9% increase in insurance profits [1][19]. - The main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw year-on-year profit changes of -2.7%, +4.1%, and +24.5% respectively in Q2 [1][19]. Economic Segmentation - The new economy's profitability improved by 6.8% year-on-year in Q2, while the old economy turned negative with a decline of 8.3% [1][19]. - Profit growth in upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors was -16.3%, +3.7%, and +1.7% respectively, with upstream performance weakened by the widening PPI decline [1][19]. Industry Highlights - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream areas performed well, with specific growth characteristics including: - Energy and raw materials sector profits increased by 12.7%, 77.5%, and 40.5% for industrial metals, precious metals, and rare metals respectively [18]. - The midstream manufacturing sector, particularly in power equipment and new energy, saw a profit increase of 26.8% [18]. - The consumer sector's profitability was supported by price and cost reductions, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery profits up by 20.4% [18]. Profit Distribution - The profitability of energy raw materials as a percentage of total profits decreased from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.8% in Q2 2025 [1][14]. Performance Quality - Non-financial ROE remained stable, with upstream sectors experiencing a decline while midstream sectors stabilized [24][25]. - A-share companies' cash flow statements showed improvement, with operating cash flow reaching the highest level since 2010 [31][34]. - Capital expenditure growth improved, with new economy sectors showing positive growth for the first time since Q2 2024 [39][41].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China will launch a pilot program for explicit enterprise loan comprehensive financing costs starting September 2024, aimed at enhancing financial consumer rights and reducing financing costs for SMEs [1] - The program will provide a detailed list of interest and non-interest costs associated with loans, calculated into an annualized rate, to help enterprises and banks understand the benefits of policy incentives and potential cost reductions [1] Group 1: Financing Cost Reduction - A construction materials company in Gansu province saved 12,500 yuan annually by benefiting from a 1% guarantee fee, which is 0.25 percentage points lower than the previous rate [2] - A graphite sealing materials company in Shandong saved over 50,000 yuan in financing costs by utilizing a "no repayment renewal" loan method, which included waiving mortgage and evaluation fees [4] - A precision manufacturing company in Jiangxi saved 219,000 yuan by avoiding high bridge financing costs through a tailored renewal loan plan that lowered interest rates [6] Group 2: Transparency and Consumer Protection - A small enterprise in Shanxi avoided a 3% "channel fee" from a fraudulent loan intermediary by directly engaging with the bank, which provided a clear breakdown of financing costs through the "loan clarity paper" [9] - The "loan clarity paper" serves as a tool for enterprises to understand the actual costs associated with loans, promoting transparency and helping them make informed financing decisions [4][6][9]

天眼查App显示，近日，甘肃桦景建材有限公司成立，法定代表人为栗延明，注册资本10万人民币，经 营范围为许可项目：建设工程施工；建筑劳务分包（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展 经营活动）一般项目：水泥制品制造；水泥制品销售；建筑材料销售；建筑装饰材料销售；保温材料销 售；建筑砌块销售；建筑工程机械与设备租赁；建筑工程用机械销售；房屋拆迁服务（除许可业务外， 可自主依法经营法律法规非禁止或限制的项目）。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，巴中市筱鸿建材有限公司成立，法定代表人为董孔贤，注册资本1万人民币， 经营范围为一般项目：建筑材料销售；建筑装饰材料销售；保温材料销售；机械设备销售；水泥制品销 售；石棉水泥制品销售；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；涂料销售（不含危险化学品）；建筑 陶瓷制品销售；耐火材料销售；建筑用石加工；建筑砌块销售；建筑用钢筋产品销售。（除依法须经批 准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：建设工程施工；建筑劳务分包；建设工程 设计；住宅室内装饰装修。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项 目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）。 ...

"工业领域碳排放占我国二氧化碳排放总量的68%至69%，是实现碳中和目标的关键所在。" 长三角地区作为我国制造业高地，工业碳减排形势尤为严峻。 由第一财经举办的2025零碳峰会8月29日在上海举办，在该峰会现场，长三角国家技术创新中心管理委 员会委员范霁红如是表示。 范霁红称，工业部门作为碳排放的最大来源，减碳路径尤为艰难。在工业碳排放结构中，直接排放占比 约62%，而外购热力和电力产生的间接排放占比38%。特别需要关注的是，工业供热所导致的碳排放占 据了全国总排放量的约50%，这凸显出工业供热系统低碳转型的紧迫性和战略意义。 "尽管各类低碳技术已有长足发展，其适用范围仍存在显著差异。"范霁红认为，热泵技术目前主要适用 于100°C以下的低温场景，高温热泵也仅可覆盖至120°C，无法满足许多工业过程对高品质蒸汽的需 求。余热利用同样集中于200°C以下的热能回收。 因而，范霁红表示，在高温供热领域，电锅炉和生物质锅炉仍是重要选项，前者减排效果依赖于电力系 统绿色转型进程，后者则受限于生物质资源总量和供应半径约束。 范霁红还提出，实现工业供热全面零碳目标，需多技术路径协同并进。一方面，应扩大电能在终端能源 消费 ...