Core Insights - The ISM manufacturing report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.1%, slightly better than expectations but still in contraction territory [2][5] - The prices component remains elevated at 61.9%, indicating rising prices but showing signs of deceleration compared to previous months [3][4] - New orders fell to 48.9%, missing expectations and indicating contraction, which is a concerning sign for future manufacturing activity [4][9] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing sector constitutes about 30-35% of the total economy, and the ISM services index carries more weight in overall economic assessments [5] - The S&P manufacturing PMI came in at 52, matching expectations but lower than the previous month, suggesting a stable but cautious outlook [8] - Overall, the manufacturing data presents a murky picture, with no signs of a significant downturn or rapid price increases, but the decline in new orders raises concerns [9][10] Labor Market Insights - The ADP report showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of over 50,000, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market [11][19] - The Midwest region experienced a notable job loss of 63,000, which may be an outlier but highlights regional disparities in employment trends [16] - There are concerns regarding the reliability of the ADP data due to missing information from the federal government, which could affect the accuracy of labor market assessments moving forward [18]

Summary of New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) - **Industry**: China Education - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: US$47.00 - **Current Price**: US$50.98 (as of September 24, 2025) - **Market Capitalization**: US$85,111 million - **Fiscal Year Ending**: May 2026 Key Points and Arguments 1. **1QF26 Revenue and OPM Guidance**: Management expects to exceed the high end of its previous revenue guidance (up 2-5% year-over-year) and OPM guidance (0-0.5 percentage points year-over-year) due to better-than-expected overseas revenue, which is projected to decline between -5% to 0% year-over-year, compared to previous guidance of -5% [2][4][9] 2. **F2026 Outlook**: The company aims to improve shareholder returns by returning no less than 50% of GAAP net profit over the next three years, with 50% allocated to dividends and the remainder to share buybacks [4] 3. **Earnings Forecast**: Non-GAAP operating profit is forecasted at US$586 million (11.1% OPM) and non-GAAP net profit at US$549 million (10.4% NPM) [9] 4. **Revenue Breakdown**: High school revenue is expected to grow by 10-12% year-over-year, while K9 revenue is projected to increase by 20% year-over-year, indicating a re-acceleration in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 [9] 5. **Cost Control Measures**: Management anticipates that cost control efforts and improvements in K9 and profitable East Buy will help offset the drag from the overseas business, leading to a stable OPM year-over-year [9] 6. **Valuation Methodology**: The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 14% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [10] 7. **Market Risks**: Potential risks include intensified competition, low visibility in revenue/earnings from live-streaming e-commerce, and possible regulatory changes affecting high school and non-academic tutoring sectors [12] Additional Important Information - **Earnings Growth**: The company is expected to achieve an 8.4% earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from fiscal 2026 to 2029 [4] - **Stock Performance**: The stock has a 52-week range of US$87.11 to US$40.70, indicating significant volatility [6] - **Analyst Team**: The report is prepared by a team including Eddy Wang, CFA, and Gary Yu, Equity Analysts at Morgan Stanley [5] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding New Oriental Education & Technology, highlighting its financial outlook, strategic initiatives, and market conditions.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $17.9 million, a 40.8% increase year-over-year, driven by a 15.7% rise in new student starts [6][11] - For the full fiscal year 2025, revenue grew 39.5% to $64.2 million, supported by a 41.8% increase in enrollments to 3,101 students [7][12] - Net income for Q4 was $1.2 million, up 27.6%, while full-year net income increased 47.3% to $7.5 million, or $0.59 per diluted share [9][12] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 31.3% to $11 million for the full year [10][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The integration of Contra Costa Medical Career College added 468 students and diversified offerings [8] - The company achieved an 81.8% NCLEX pass rate in nursing and placement rates averaging 74.3% through AHHS and 74.6% through ABHES [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The healthcare education sector is projected to have over 1.8 million annual job openings through 2032, indicating strong demand for the company's programs [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue enrollment momentum through digital marketing and employer collaborations, focusing on high-potential regions [14][15] - New degree and certificate programs are set to launch in October, enhancing the nursing education portfolio [14][20] - The company is exploring additional branches and acquisitions to expand its educational reach [9][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's position to benefit from policy support and market demand, particularly in the healthcare education sector [15][16] - The company is committed to compliance as a competitive advantage, which is crucial amid regulatory shifts [15] Other Important Information - The company increased its accounts receivable reserve by approximately $700,000 due to observed softness in student payments related to graduates [9][12] - The balance sheet shows $20.3 million in cash with negligible debt, allowing for strategic investments [10][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What was the starts number in the quarter? - The starts number for the quarter was 723 [17][18] Question: When do the new programs start, and what revenue might they deliver? - The new programs are anticipated to start in October, but no forward projections on revenue were provided [20][21] Question: What is the outstanding balance related to the $700,000 reserve? - The total outstanding balance for graduate students is approximately $2 to $2.5 million, with a conservative reserve estimate taken [25][26] Question: What is the reason for the higher tax rate? - The tax rate was around 31-32%, influenced by a return to provision adjustment from the previous year [28][29] Question: Are there any capacity constraints at the facilities? - The company has added square footage to existing campuses to accommodate growth and has sufficient capacity [33]

Core Points - The event "2025 'Ten Thousand Jobs for Ten Thousand Families'" job fair will be held on September 27 in Zhengzhou, organized by the Jinshui District Human Resources and Social Security Bureau and the Fengqing Road Street Office [1] - The job fair targets various urgent employment groups, including young talents, high-level talents, recent graduates, unemployed individuals, and veterans [1] - Over 9,300 job positions will be available across multiple industries, including computer science, environmental technology, mechanical manufacturing, education, finance, and more [1] Industry Summary - The job fair will feature key enterprises from diverse sectors such as technology, education, food, tourism, finance, and healthcare, indicating a broad demand for talent across industries [1] - Job positions will cover a wide range of professional categories, including roles in new media, project management, e-commerce, engineering, and legal services, reflecting the evolving job market needs [1] - The event will provide various service areas for job seekers, including recruitment zones and registration areas, enhancing the job matching process [1]

Core Viewpoint - Scholastic (NASDAQ:SCHL) shares experienced a 13% decline in premarket trading due to missing quarterly profit and revenue estimates in a challenging market environment [2] Company Summary - The company's education division is under sales pressure attributed to a volatile funding environment, which includes delays and cancellations of federal funding [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues decreased by 5% to $225.6 million in the first quarter, reflecting the seasonality of the business [11] - Adjusted operating loss improved to $81.9 million from $85.6 million in the prior year [12] - Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $55.7 million, an improvement from a loss of $60.5 million a year ago [13] - Net loss was $63.3 million compared to $60.3 million in the prior year period, with adjusted loss per diluted share increasing to $2.52 from $2.13 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Children's Book Publishing and Distribution revenues increased by 4% to $109.4 million, driven by growth in School Book Fairs [14] - Book Fair revenue was $34.1 million, an increase of 18%, while Book Clubs revenue decreased to $1.8 million from $2.7 million [14] - Trade Publishing revenues were essentially flat at $73.5 million, reflecting strong demand for key titles [14] - Scholastic Education segment revenues decreased to $40.1 million from $55.7 million, impacted by lower spending on supplemental curriculum products [15] - Entertainment Segment revenues decreased by $3 million to $13.6 million, primarily due to fewer episodic deliveries [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International Segment revenues increased to $59.4 million from $56.8 million, with growth driven by higher revenues in Australia, the U.K., and Asia [16] - Excluding foreign currency impacts, segment revenues were up $2.4 million [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on real estate monetization and has significant investor interest in its properties [4] - Aiming for profitable growth through financial discipline and operational leverage while affirming full-year guidance [4] - The integration of Trade, Fairs, and Clubs into a new Children's Book Group aims to streamline operations and enhance data analytics [7] - The company is leveraging digital platforms like YouTube to expand its IP reach and create high-margin revenue streams [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging funding environment for Scholastic Education but remains confident in long-term potential [10] - The company expects a strong second quarter, benefiting from major trade releases and increased fair bookings [19] - Affirmation of fiscal year 2026 guidance for revenue growth of 2%-4% and adjusted EBITDA of $160 million-$170 million [19] Other Important Information - The company is closely monitoring tariff impacts, expecting approximately $10 million in incremental tariff expenses this fiscal year [19] - Seasonal net cash used by operating activities was $81.8 million, an increase from $41.9 million in the prior year [17] - The company has $70 million remaining on its share buyback authorization [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Feedback on new products in Education Solutions - Management received positive feedback on new products despite a difficult selling environment due to funding uncertainties [22][23] Question: Key variables to monitor for spending trends - Management indicated that schools are still spending but are cautious due to funding uncertainties, expecting improvements as funding becomes more certain [24][25] Question: Timing for financial impact from the Entertainment Segment - Management noted that digital revenue from YouTube will grow over time, with no immediate financial impact expected [26][27] Question: Cost structure and expense reduction opportunities - Management highlighted ongoing cost reduction efforts, with $15 million to $20 million in reductions already realized [31][32] Question: Factors affecting fiscal year guidance - Management emphasized the importance of retail market conditions and tariff expenses in achieving guidance [34][35] Question: Expectations for fiscal Q2 - Management expressed optimism for Q2, citing strong upcoming releases and increased fair bookings [45][46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues decreased by 5% to $225.6 million in the first quarter, reflecting the seasonality of the business [13] - Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $55.7 million, an improvement from a loss of $60.5 million a year ago [14] - Net loss was $63.3 million compared to $60.3 million in the prior year period, with adjusted loss per diluted share increasing to $2.52 from $2.13 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Children's Book Publishing and Distribution revenues increased by 4% to $109.4 million, with Book Fair revenue rising by 18% to $34.1 million [14][15] - Scholastic Education segment revenues decreased to $40.1 million from $55.7 million in the prior year, reflecting lower spending on supplemental curriculum products [15][16] - Entertainment segment revenues decreased by $3 million to $13.6 million, primarily due to fewer episodic deliveries [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment revenues increased to $59.4 million from $56.8 million, driven by higher revenues in Australia, the UK, and Asia [17] - The company expects to surpass 10 million monthly views of classic Clifford content on YouTube by year-end [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building long-term opportunities in children's publishing, media, and education, while reducing costs and optimizing capital structure [22] - The integration of Trade, Fairs, and Clubs into a new Children's Book Group aims to streamline operations and enhance data analytics [8] - The company is pursuing real estate monetization, with significant investor interest in its properties [4][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a volatile funding environment affecting the Education segment but remains confident in long-term potential [10][11] - The company affirmed its fiscal year 2026 guidance for revenue growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA of $160 to $170 million [21] Other Important Information - The company returned $5.2 million to shareholders through regular dividends and has $70 million remaining on its share buyback authorization [18] - The company is closely monitoring tariff impacts, expecting approximately $10 million in incremental tariff expenses this fiscal year [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Feedback on new products in Education Solutions - Management received positive feedback on new products despite a difficult selling environment due to funding uncertainties [25] Question: Key variables to watch for spending trends - Management indicated that schools are still spending but are cautious due to funding uncertainties, expecting more confidence as federal programs resume [26][28] Question: Timing for financial impact from the Entertainment segment - Management noted that digital revenue from YouTube is expected to grow over time, with no immediate financial impact [30] Question: Cost structure and expense reduction opportunities - Management highlighted ongoing cost reduction efforts, with $15 million to $20 million in cost savings already realized [36] Question: Factors affecting fiscal year guidance - Management emphasized the importance of retail market conditions and tariff impacts on the business [37][38]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues decreased by 5% to $225.6 million in Q1 2026, reflecting the seasonality of the business [11] - Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $55.7 million, an improvement from a loss of $60.5 million a year ago [12] - Net loss was $63.3 million compared to $60.3 million in the prior year period, with adjusted loss per diluted share increasing to $2.52 from $2.13 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Children's Book Publishing and Distribution revenues increased by 4% to $109.4 million, with Book Fair revenue rising 18% to $34.1 million [13][14] - Trade Publishing revenues were essentially flat at $73.5 million, driven by strong demand for key titles [14] - Scholastic Education segment revenues decreased to $40.1 million from $55.7 million, reflecting lower spending on supplemental curriculum products [15] - Entertainment segment revenues decreased by $3 million to $13.6 million, primarily due to fewer episodic deliveries [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment revenues increased to $59.4 million from $56.8 million, with growth driven by higher revenues in Australia, the UK, and Asia [16] - The company expects to see growth opportunities in expanding English as a second language programs in markets like India and the Philippines [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building long-term opportunities as a global leader in children's publishing, media, and education [20] - Ongoing real estate monetization efforts are generating significant investor interest, with processes expected to conclude in the fall [18] - The integration of Trade, Fairs, and Clubs into a new Children's Book Group aims to streamline operations and enhance data analytics [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the Education segment despite current funding uncertainties [10] - The company is affirming its fiscal year 2026 guidance for revenue growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted EBITDA of $160 to $170 million [19] - Management highlighted the importance of aligning spending with long-term goals to drive favorable operating margins [19] Other Important Information - The company had borrowings of $325 million under its unsecured revolving credit facility, with net debt increasing to $242.8 million [17] - Free cash use in Q1 was $100.2 million compared to $68.7 million in the prior year, reflecting lower cash flow from operations [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Feedback on new products in Education Solutions business - Management received positive feedback on new products, particularly Knowledge Library, despite a difficult selling environment due to funding uncertainties [22][23] Question: Key variables to monitor for spending trends - Management indicated that schools continue to spend, but uncertainty in future funding may lead to cautious purchasing [24] Question: Timing for financial impact from YouTube content - Management expects gradual benefits from the digital model and advertising revenue, with significant growth anticipated over time [28] Question: Cost structure and expense reduction opportunities - Management is actively identifying areas for cost reduction, with an expected $15 million to $20 million in savings [33] Question: Guidance affirmation and potential performance variables - Management expressed confidence in their guidance, noting that retail market conditions and tariff impacts are key factors to monitor [34][35]

Core Insights - Scholastic Corporation reported financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended August 31, 2025, affirming its fiscal 2026 guidance despite a seasonal operating loss [1][2][6] - The company experienced a decrease in revenues by 5% to $225.6 million, primarily due to lower sales in the Education Solutions segment [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA improved by 8% to a loss of $55.7 million, reflecting a reduction in discretionary overhead expenses and higher revenues in the Children's Book Publishing and Distribution segment [7][8] Financial Performance - Revenues decreased from $237.2 million in fiscal 2025 to $225.6 million in fiscal 2026, a decline of $11.6 million or 5% [6][7] - Operating loss increased to $92.2 million from $88.5 million year-over-year, with one-time charges impacting both periods [7][8] - Diluted earnings per share fell to $(2.83) from $(2.21), a decrease of 28% [6][7] Segment Analysis - Children's Book Publishing and Distribution segment revenues increased by 4% to $109.4 million, driven by strong performances in book fairs and franchises like Hunger Games [9][11] - Education Solutions revenues decreased by 28% to $40.1 million due to funding uncertainties affecting school purchases [12][13] - Entertainment segment revenues fell by 18% to $13.6 million, primarily due to anticipated production delays [13][14] Capital Position and Liquidity - Net cash used by operating activities was $81.8 million, compared to $41.9 million in the prior year, reflecting lower net income and seasonal working capital needs [16][18] - Free cash flow usage increased to $100.2 million from $68.7 million year-over-year, driven by higher operating cash use [16][18] - Net debt rose to $242.8 million from $152.1 million, influenced by working capital requirements and dividends [18][19] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on optimizing capital allocation and strengthening its balance sheet, including evaluating potential sale-leaseback transactions for key real estate assets [6][20] - Scholastic is expanding its digital and licensing revenue streams through new initiatives, including a Scholastic-branded streaming app and tie-in products for new IP [4][6] - The company aims to enhance its Education division by refining its product portfolio and aligning marketing strategies to better meet educators' needs [5][12]

Group 1: China’s Economic Initiatives - China is rolling out policies to invigorate service consumption and tourism, including issuing 5-year multiple-entry visas to a broader range of individuals and extending business hours for tourist attractions and museums [2][3][9] - The country aims to expand pilot programs in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education to attract global capital and open up the economy [3][9] - China plans to promote international sporting events, targeting a total scale of the sports industry to exceed 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion) by 2030, as part of its strategy to make domestic demand the primary engine of economic growth [3][9] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Stance - The ECB is maintaining a cautious approach to future interest rate adjustments, with Governing Council member Scicluna stating that there are no planned cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4][9] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Ford Motor Company is set to cut 1,000 jobs at its Cologne plant in Germany in early 2026 as part of a broader restructuring effort across Europe, with a total workforce reduction of approximately 4,000 employees by 2027 [5][9]