Specialist Sales 24 July 2025 J P M O R G A N JPM | M&A 2025 Mid-Year Outlook Zara Patel +44 207 134 6029 zara.patel@jpmorgan.com JP Morgan has published their 2025 Mid-Year M&A Outlook . In the below note, I highlight interesting takeaways, with a focus on Europe. Our EMEA bankers are "cautiously optimistic" for European M&A outlook in H2 2025 and 2026. One chart which caught my eye: Activism increasing amidst market volatility. Page 15 has a chart showing the relationship between the number of public acti ...

23 July 2025 Global Equity Strategy Still Banking on Banks We have long been overweight banks and continue to be so strategically. Our colleague Gerry Fowler is also overweight banks on his REVS framework (see here). We see the following supports but as always note that one needs to pick the right regions and stocks. Macro: i) a hedge on rising populism. One of our largest top-down concerns is that populism results in ever-growing fiscal imprudence (last year was the first time in 120 years that in each of ...

V i e w p o i n t | 22 Jul 2025 07:13:18 ET │ 11 pages US Economics The Daily Update – Who is paying tariffs? CITI'S TAKE Tariff costs will be absorbed by either foreign exporters, domestic firms or consumers. A modest increase in consumer prices suggests that so far the cost is being absorbed by firms and not consumers. Corporate earnings could hold some clues. Andrew Hollenhorst AC +1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com Veronica Clark AC +1-212-816-8830 veronica1.clark@citi.com Gisela Young AC +1-212 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 23 Jul 2025 05:44:43 ET │ 10 pages Japan FX How will the USDJPY move after the US-Japan trade agreement? CITI'S TAKE We believe the basic trade agreement between the US and Japan will result in JPY appreciation over time. In the near term we think appreciation pressure should be offset by depreciation pressure as Japanese equities rise in a global risk-on environment. However, as BoJ monetary policy normalization continues to be priced in, an outlook that US and Japan could coordinate FX ...

通胀与反内卷，利好银行 20250727 目前银行股的市盈率大约为 7 倍，股息率约为 4%。如果银行能够实现更高的 增长速度，其估值应相应提高。假设当前静态股息率为 4%，在没有增长的情 况下，每年的股息率保持不变。但若银行能实现 8%的增长，明年的股息率将 变为 4.32%，再下一年将达到约 4.7%，随后逐年递增。这种情况下，长期持 有银行股票将比无风险利率下降带来的资本利得更具吸引力。目前无风险利率 已降至 1.66%左右，而银行通过利润增长实现的收益显然更具吸引力。 摘要 适度通胀对商业银行发展有利，能扩大银行息差，缓解债务压力，促进 企业盈利和居民收入增长，并推动经济复苏，提升抵押品价值，从而降 低银行资产风险。 近期商业银行财报表现积极，反映市场对其业绩增长的乐观态度。社会 贷款和社融增速较快，若息差稳定且坏账未恶化，利润增速有望与业务 规模扩张速度匹配，优质小型银行或实现更高增速。 银行股估值应考虑市盈率和股息率，若银行能实现更高增长，其估值应 相应提高。长期持有高增长银行股票，其收益比无风险利率下降带来的 资本利得更具吸引力。 历史数据显示，经济复苏和通胀上升阶段，银行股表现出色。2022 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various types of insurance that companies can deduct from their taxable income, focusing on employee-related insurance and specific industry regulations [3][4][5][6][8]. - Companies can deduct basic social insurance contributions such as pension, medical, unemployment, work injury, maternity insurance, and housing provident fund for employees [3]. - Supplementary pension and medical insurance contributions are deductible up to 5% of the total employee wages [4]. - Special occupational safety insurance and business travel accident insurance for employees on official trips are also deductible [5][6]. Group 2 - Companies can deduct property insurance premiums and liability insurance premiums, such as employer liability and public liability insurance, from their taxable income [8]. - For banking institutions, the deposit insurance premiums calculated at a rate not exceeding 0.0016 are deductible [8]. - The article provides guidance on how to report deductible insurance premiums in tax forms [8].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of listed banks' mid-year reports shows positive operational data, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating a bullish trend in the banking sector since 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Performance of Listed Banks - Four listed banks, including Qilu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changshu Bank, reported revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with Qilu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Changshu Bank achieving over 10% year-on-year growth in net profit [1][2][3]. - Qilu Bank's revenue reached 6.782 billion yuan, up 5.76%, with a net profit of 2.734 billion yuan, up 16.48% [2]. - Ningbo Bank reported revenue of 37.16 billion yuan, a 7.91% increase, and a net profit of 14.772 billion yuan, an 8.23% increase [2]. - Hangzhou Bank's revenue was 20.093 billion yuan, up 3.89%, with a net profit of 11.662 billion yuan, up 16.67% [2]. - Changshu Bank achieved revenue of 6.062 billion yuan, a 10.10% increase, and a net profit of 1.969 billion yuan, up 13.55% [3]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Loan Growth - All four banks maintained positive loan growth, with Ningbo Bank's loans increasing by 13.36% and Qilu Bank's by 10.16% compared to the beginning of the year [3]. - Qilu Bank reported a net interest income growth of 13.57% and a stable net interest margin [3]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for these banks showed stability or improvement, with Qilu Bank's NPL ratio decreasing to 1.09%, down 0.10 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3][4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Fund Allocation - The banking sector has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with 11 A-share listed banks rising over 20% year-to-date as of July 25, 2025 [1][9]. - H-share listed banks performed even better, with 15 banks rising over 30% [9]. - Public funds have increased their allocation to bank stocks, with the proportion of active public funds in bank stocks reaching a new high since June 2021, at 4.9%, up 1.1 percentage points [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recovery and growth of the banking wealth management market in the first half of 2025, with a focus on asset allocation trends and product characteristics [3][4]. Scale - In the first half of 2025, the wealth management scale increased by 0.72 trillion, with the total balance exceeding 30 trillion, reaching 30.67 trillion by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a 2.4% growth since the beginning of the year [3]. - The Q2 2025 single-quarter increase was 1.53 trillion, lower than the 1.89 trillion increase in the same period last year, but higher than the average increase of 0.64 trillion from 2021 to 2023 [3]. Product Characteristics - Fixed income products maintained a stable proportion of 97.2% by the end of Q2 2025, with a growth of 2.3% to 29.81 trillion since the beginning of the year [4]. - The cash management products decreased by 0.9 trillion to 6.4 trillion, indicating a "seesaw" effect between cash management and non-cash management products [4]. - Mixed and equity products saw a recovery, with mixed products increasing by 40 billion to 770 billion and equity products increasing by 10 billion to 700 billion since the beginning of the year [4]. Asset Allocation - Bond assets totaled 18.33 trillion, decreasing by 2.7 trillion since the beginning of the year but increasing by 4.5 trillion since the beginning of Q2 2025, with a proportion of 55.6% [6]. - Cash and bank deposits increased by 5 trillion to 8.18 trillion, with a proportion of 24.8% [6]. - Public fund allocations reached 1.38 trillion, with a significant increase of 450 billion in Q2 2025, representing 4.2% of the total [6].

Core Insights - Suzhou Bank has successfully transformed from a local agricultural bank to a significant regional financial institution over its 15 years of operation, with total assets exceeding 720 billion yuan and maintaining high asset quality [1][3][4] - The bank's dual-engine strategy focuses on "Technology Innovation + Cross-border" and "People's Livelihood + Wealth," aligning with national policy directions to drive financial service innovation and support regional economic prosperity [1][5][20] Group 1: Strategic Development - Suzhou Bank's growth is characterized by a strategic focus on local economic characteristics, emphasizing retail banking and community services, such as the issuance of social security cards [3][4] - The bank has established a comprehensive risk management system to ensure sustainable development, maintaining a non-performing loan ratio below 1% and achieving a record low of 0.83% by the end of 2024 [4][20] Group 2: Business Expansion and Quality Improvement - The bank has expanded its physical network significantly, achieving full coverage in Suzhou and establishing branches across Jiangsu province, with total assets growing nearly 15 times since its inception [4][20] - Suzhou Bank has successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, becoming the 33rd listed bank in China, with total assets reaching 727.15 billion yuan as of March 2023, reflecting a 112% increase since its listing [4][20] Group 3: Innovation in Financial Services - The bank has developed a unique financial service model that integrates technology and cross-border finance, launching various innovative products to support technology enterprises and enhance cross-border trade [5][9][10] - Suzhou Bank has implemented a "345" action plan to optimize the business environment, enhancing financial service efficiency and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in their digital transformation [7][20] Group 4: Support for Local Economy and SMEs - The bank has actively supported local small and micro enterprises, with inclusive loans exceeding 70.5 billion yuan, utilizing digital risk control to balance support for the real economy and asset quality management [17][18] - Suzhou Bank has introduced various financial products tailored to meet the needs of local businesses, including credit products and supply chain financing, to stimulate market vitality [19][20] Group 5: Commitment to Social Responsibility - The bank has launched initiatives to enhance consumer finance and services for new citizens, providing tailored financial solutions and promoting community engagement [12][13][20] - Suzhou Bank has focused on developing a comprehensive financial service ecosystem for technology innovation, supporting over 13,000 technology enterprises with a credit scale exceeding 130 billion yuan [14][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Harbin Bank is enhancing its cross-border financial services and products to support the internationalization of the Renminbi and improve cross-border payment infrastructure, receiving recognition for its innovative digital solutions in the financial sector [1]. Group 1: Product Innovation and Recognition - Harbin Bank's self-developed cross-border payment settlement product "HaYin Digital E-Pass" won the "Best Digital Trade Platform" award in the 2025 "China Awards Program" by The Asian Banker, highlighting its role as a model for digital innovation in cross-border finance [1][3]. Group 2: Multi-Scenario Integration - "HaYin Digital E-Pass" integrates various new foreign trade scenarios such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement, creating a comprehensive, online, and intelligent cross-border financial service ecosystem that addresses the pain points of slow and difficult payments in cross-border trade [3][6]. Group 3: Financial Technology Integration - Harbin Bank is embracing financial technology to establish a benchmark digital service system for cross-border settlements, having initiated cross-border Renminbi settlement services at border markets and issued the first special VAT invoice for processing businesses at the Heihe port [4][6]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The bank has achieved full automation of business processes through a highly integrated system architecture, reducing processing time by 83% compared to traditional methods, and ensuring a 100% accuracy rate in automatic account matching since the platform's launch [6]. Group 5: Commitment to Innovation - With the ongoing acceleration of global digitalization, Harbin Bank aims to continuously optimize its cross-border business and deepen international cooperation, providing comprehensive financial services to support the growth of new foreign trade models [7].