Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Skechers despite higher revenues, with the actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Skechers is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.18 per share, reflecting an 11.3% decrease year-over-year [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $2.44 billion, indicating an 8.3% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 3.62% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Skechers is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.54% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [8]. - Skechers currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Skechers was expected to earn $0.74 per share but only achieved $0.65, resulting in a surprise of -12.16% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Skechers has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [13]. Conclusion - Skechers does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].

Core Insights - Saucony has launched the Saucony SILO collection, which merges high-fashion influences with the brand's heritage and technology, aiming to redefine luxury sneakers [1][2] - The collection features five key silhouettes, emphasizing modern innovation and comfort alongside sophisticated styling [2][3] - The official global launch date for the SS25 collection is April 17, 2025, available at select retailers and online [3] Company Overview - Saucony is recognized as a leading global performance running brand, part of Wolverine World Wide, Inc., and has a history dating back to 1898 [4] - The brand is known for its innovative technologies, including PWRRUN™ PB, PWRRUN+™, and SPEEDROLL™, which enhance both technical and lifestyle footwear [4] - Saucony aims to inspire individuals through running culture and self-expression, highlighting its commitment to innovation and style [4]

Core Insights - Needham analyst Tom Nikic maintains a Buy rating on Nike Inc with a price target of $75.00, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [1] - The footwear sector is significantly impacted by tariffs, with current tariffs at 145% on Chinese imports and 10% on other sources, threatening profit margins [2] - Stock movements for Nike are expected to be influenced more by tariff developments than by business fundamentals, creating uncertainty for investors [3] Product Trends - Nike's ReactX Rejuven8, a molded rubber slip-on shoe, has sold out quickly and is gaining popularity on social media, potentially posing competitive pressure for Crocs Inc [3][4] - The Pegasus Premium running shoe received a strong consumer response, with successful launches in January and March, suggesting a possible rebound in Nike's running category [4] - There is an anticipated year-over-year increase in high-demand sneaker releases for Nike, partly due to last year's underwhelming Jordan lineup [5]

Core Viewpoint - Weyco Group, Inc. is set to announce its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 6, 2025, followed by a conference call on May 7, 2025, to discuss these results in detail [1]. Company Overview - Weyco Group, Inc. designs and markets quality and innovative footwear primarily for men, but also for women and children, under well-recognized brand names such as Florsheim, Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, BOGS, and Forsake [4]. - The company's products are available in leading footwear, department, and specialty stores, as well as on e-commerce websites globally [4]. - Weyco Group operates Florsheim concept stores in the United States, Australia, and various international markets [4].

Group 1: Steven Madden Earnings Report - Steven Madden's stock declined over 34% following their Q4 earnings report on February 26, leading analysts to reduce EPS estimates by nearly 8% [1] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for 2025 dropped from $2.53 to $2.33, following a prior 14% cut from $2.95 [1] - Despite robust revenue estimates, with a projected 18% growth to $2.7 billion for 2025, the earnings outlook indicates a potential annual decline of -12.7% [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Footwear Industry - The Trump administration's final tariff plan includes 46% tariffs on goods from Vietnam, affecting footwear manufacturers like Nike and Deckers [2] - A significant sell-off in apparel stocks is anticipated, although potential bargains may arise if new tariff agreements are negotiated [2] Group 3: Earnings Decline Advisory - It is advised to avoid companies experiencing earnings declines, with the Zacks Rank serving as a useful indicator [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index is down approximately 5% at the start of 2025, indicating investor concerns about the economy [1] - Stocks are experiencing a significant decline, reflecting broader economic worries [1] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor is the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500, down 46% [3] - The company reported a 17% revenue growth in Q4 2024, with net sales of $1.8 billion, but analysts were not satisfied with its guidance projecting 15% growth for the current year [3][4] - The stock was previously trading at over 35 times its trailing earnings but has since dropped to about 18 times [4] - Economic uncertainties, including trade wars and tariffs, pose risks to Deckers' business, and there is potential for guidance cuts [5] Group 3: Tesla - Tesla is the second worst-performing stock, down 38%, facing challenges due to questionable growth prospects and controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk [6] - The company's automotive revenue fell by 8% in Q4, totaling $19.8 billion, with profits declining by 71% year over year to $2.3 billion [7] - Tesla's stock is trading at over 90 times its estimated future earnings, indicating it remains highly expensive with potential for further decline [8] Group 4: On Semiconductor - On Semiconductor is the third worst-performing stock, down 36%, primarily affected by economic headwinds in the automotive sector [9] - The company reported sales of $7.1 billion in 2024, a 14% decline year over year, suggesting a challenging recovery ahead [10] - On Semiconductor trades at a relatively modest valuation of 16 times next year's estimated earnings, presenting a potential long-term buying opportunity [10][11] - The long-term growth prospects for semiconductor companies are significant, with On Semiconductor's stock at multiyear lows, indicating potential for future recovery [11]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is experiencing strong growth driven by the success of its UGG and HOKA brands, international expansion, and a focus on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales [1][2][12] - The DTC channel is a significant contributor to Deckers' performance, with net sales rising 17.9% to $1.01 billion in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [2] - The company is investing in e-commerce and loyalty initiatives, enhancing customer acquisition and retention [3] Brand Performance - Deckers maintains a balanced portfolio with UGG leading in premium lifestyle footwear and HOKA growing rapidly in high-performance footwear, with HOKA growing 23.7% and UGG 16.1% year-over-year in Q3 [4][5] - The company has achieved full-price sell-through rates, reflecting strong brand equity and disciplined inventory management [5] International Expansion - International markets are increasingly important, particularly for HOKA, which is expanding globally with effective wholesale strategies [6] - UGG is also targeting high-opportunity regions like China for sustained international growth [7] Product Innovation - Product innovation is central to Deckers' strategy, with HOKA launching new performance products and UGG expanding into new segments like sneakers and men's styles [8][9] Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, Deckers reported $2.24 billion in cash and no debt, allowing for growth investments and shareholder returns [10] - The company repurchased approximately 275,000 shares for $44.7 million, with $640.7 million remaining in its share repurchase authorization [10][11] Growth Projections - Deckers forecasts a 15% year-over-year revenue increase to $4.9 billion for fiscal 2025, with HOKA expected to grow 24% and UGG 10% [12] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 57%, up from 55.6% last year, with EPS forecasted to rise to $5.75-$5.80 [13]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Nike Inc. has experienced a significant decline, down 30.16% over the past year and 17.85% in the last month, currently trading at $64.95, which is at the bottom of its 52-week range [1] - The stock is below all key moving averages, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -2.34 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 26.93, indicating oversold conditions [1] Group 2: Business Fundamentals - Nike has warned of a double-digit sales decline in its fourth fiscal quarter, attributed to tariffs, weak consumer confidence, and a sluggish turnaround strategy [2] - Sales during the critical holiday quarter fell by 9%, primarily due to weak demand in China [2] Group 3: Inventory and Margins - The company is dealing with excess inventory and outdated styles, leading to markdowns that negatively impact margins [3] - Nike anticipates a gross margin shrinkage of up to five percentage points in the current quarter as it works to clear the backlog [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The stock is in a bearish trend, influenced by weak fundamentals and deteriorating technical indicators [4] - While the oversold conditions indicated by the RSI may lead to a short-term bounce, the overall downtrend persists until sales and margins improve [4]

Core Viewpoint - A lawsuit has been filed against Crocs, Inc. and its senior executives for potential violations of federal securities laws, specifically related to misleading statements about the company's inventory practices and revenue growth from its acquisition of HEYDUDE [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit is pending in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware, captioned Carretta v. Crocs, Inc., et al., No. 25-cv-00096, and claims are made under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 [2]. - Investors have until March 24, 2025, to request to be appointed to lead the case [2]. Group 2: Allegations Against Crocs - Crocs's CEO, Andrew Rees, allegedly assured investors that the company would not overstock wholesalers, but it is claimed that HEYDUDE's revenue growth was largely due to Crocs aggressively stocking its third-party wholesaler pipeline, regardless of actual retail demand [3]. - The company revealed on April 27, 2023, that much of HEYDUDE's revenue growth was not indicative of actual retail sales, leading to a stock price decline of $23.46 per share, or nearly 16%, from $147.78 to $124.32 [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Stock Impact - On October 29, 2024, Crocs reported disappointing Q3 2024 results, attributing struggles at HEYDUDE to excess inventories and admitting to shipping too much product in 2022, which led to a stock price decline of $26.47 per share, or approximately 19%, from $138.05 to $111.58 [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share were $0.33, and full year adjusted earnings per share were $3.3, at the high end of guidance [8][28] - Fourth quarter consolidated sales were $639.2 million, down 8.3% year-over-year, with a $30.3 million unfavorable impact from the fifty-third week [24][25] - Full year consolidated sales were $2.72 billion, down 3.4% compared to the previous year [25] - Fourth quarter consolidated gross margin was 43%, an 80 basis point decrease from last year [25] - Full year consolidated gross margin was 44.9%, up approximately 10 basis points from last year [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brand portfolio sales declined 7.2% in the fourth quarter, with a 5% decline excluding the fifty-third week [8][25] - Famous Footwear sales were down 9.6% in total and down 2.9% on a comparable basis [25] - Lead brands, including Sam Edelman, Allen Edmonds, Naturalizer, and Vionic, outperformed the overall brand portfolio [6][9] - Allen Edmonds showed growth across all channels, with strong performance in sport and dress loafers [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Internationally, the company activated new premium wholesale partnerships in Europe and continued expansion in China and Southeast Asia [10] - Famous Footwear's comparable store sales were down 2.9%, with brick-and-mortar sales down 4.1% and comparable web sales up 3.1% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term growth by investing in key areas while reducing expenses elsewhere [6] - The acquisition of Stuart Weitzman is expected to enhance exposure to the contemporary segment and premium price points [16] - The company plans to upgrade 25 more stores to the Flare format in 2025, which has shown strong performance [18][73] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2025, despite challenges from inflation and tariffs [20][21] - The company anticipates sequential improvement throughout the year, driven by new product introductions and improved leadership [36][38] - Management noted that the current macroeconomic environment presents headwinds for value-based consumers [20] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $75 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [7] - Inventory at year-end was $565 million, up 4.5% year-over-year, with a focus on managing aged inventory [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the EPS guidance assumptions for the year? - Management expects sequential quarterly improvement, with specific initiatives driving growth in both Famous and brand portfolio segments [36][38] Question: What trends are seen in the contemporary segment? - Management noted that contemporary brands are trending positively, with strong performance in fashion sneakers and seasonal items [40][41] Question: How will gross margins be affected by markdowns and tariffs? - Management anticipates some gross margin decline due to tariffs and markdowns, but expects improvements as inventory becomes more current [50][72] Question: What is the outlook for the first quarter's operating margin? - The first quarter's operating margin is expected to be the lowest of the year, with improvements anticipated as the year progresses [58] Question: How are order trends in wholesale accounts? - Management indicated that they are seeing positive trends in wholesale accounts, with plans for continued growth in remodeled stores [73]