Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The number and probability of forced redemptions have been increasing year by year, and the arbitrage opportunities and risks have attracted attention. In the bull market, more convertible bonds trigger and choose forced redemptions, and investors and institutions focus on whether there are arbitrage opportunities and how to time the market [1]. - The valuation adjustment of convertible bonds shows an obvious forward - moving feature. The main pricing process of forced redemption risk is completed at an earlier stage before the announcement, and the valuation compression is basically completed when approaching the announcement [1]. - In 2026, the forced redemption of convertible bonds may be more frequent, and the forced redemption game opportunities will increase. The operation idea of "entering the market close to the announcement and exiting opportunistically after the announcement" is more suitable [3]. Summary by Directory I. Strong Redemption Case Review - From 2018 - 2025, there were 1,178 cases of forced redemption triggers in the market, and the proportion of those finally choosing to implement forced redemptions was about 29.5%. In 2025, the number of forced redemption cases reached 132, and 47.3% of the issuers chose forced redemptions, with the probability hitting a record high [1][9]. - The trend of the stock market dominates the occurrence of convertible bond forced redemption events. Since 2024, the monthly trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen All - A Index has significantly increased, and the number of forced redemptions has risen synchronously. The change in the convertible bond stock structure is closely related to the forced redemption probability. The median remaining term of convertible bonds has been decreasing, and the proportion of old bonds in the market has increased significantly [14]. - In 2026, 190 convertible bonds will mature, and if the stock market remains strong, the number of convertible bonds meeting the forced redemption conditions may increase, and the proportion of forced redemption cases may rise [18]. II. How Does the Valuation of Convertible Bonds Converge Before the Forced Redemption Announcement? 2.1 Typical Convergence Path of Valuation - The identification of forced redemption risk promotes the early compression of the conversion premium rate. The conversion premium rate starts to compress unilaterally from T - 20 and gradually converges to around 0%. The compression mainly occurs in the early stage before the forced redemption announcement. From T - 20 to T - 15, the median conversion premium rate drops from 2.33% to 0.98%, accounting for about 56.7% of the overall compression [19]. 2.2 The Forced Redemption Game Continues to "Involve", and the Valuation Convergence Rhythm Advances - The time rhythm of the forced redemption game shows a forward - moving trend. The compression of the conversion premium rate has advanced to an earlier time window before the announcement. Different stages have different convergence rhythms, and the main compression stage has gradually advanced [23]. 2.3 The Valuation Compression of High - Par Convertible Bonds is More Obvious - High - par convertible bonds have more obvious premium compression. The high - par and high - premium convertible bonds are more likely to experience a rapid decline in the conversion premium rate when the forced redemption condition approaches. At T - 20, the premium rate of high - par convertible bonds is 45.96%, about 54 percentage points higher than that of low - par convertible bonds, and both converge to near 0 at T - 1 [27]. 2.4 Before the Announcement, the Market has Formed a Significant Differentiated Expectation for Convertible Bonds with and without Forced Redemption - Before the announcement, the conversion premium rate of non - forced - redemption convertible bonds remains in the positive premium range, about 4% around T - 1. In contrast, the premium rate of forced - redemption convertible bonds converges to 0. Investors need to be vigilant about the price adjustment risk caused by the change in forced redemption expectations [33][34]. III. Is There Still an Opportunity to Participate After the Forced Redemption Announcement? 3.1 After the Forced Redemption Announcement, the Convertible Bond Price Performance and Its Characteristics: "Rapid Compression, Partial Rebound" - After the forced redemption announcement, the conversion premium rate of convertible bonds quickly compresses and turns negative. In some strong stock market stages, the valuation of individual bonds may rebound from T + 10 to T + 30. The stronger the stock market, the more obvious the rebound feature [36][41]. 3.2 After the Non - Redemption Announcement, the Conversion Premium Rate Gradually Returns to Normal - After the non - redemption announcement, the conversion premium rate of non - redeemed convertible bonds shows obvious repair, rising from about 7% to about 10%, and the market pricing gradually returns to the normal valuation range [46]. 3.3 After the Non - Redemption Announcement, is There a Difference in the Valuation Repair of Convertible Bonds with Different Par Values? - Before the non - forced - redemption announcement, the compression paths of the conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with different par values are similar in the early stage, but they gradually diverge later. After T + 15, the conversion premium rate of high - par convertible bonds is significantly lower than that of low - par convertible bonds [48][49]. 3.4 The Investment Win - Rate of Non - Redeemed Convertible Bonds is Higher - In the forced redemption announcement game, it is better to enter the market close to the announcement and exit opportunistically after the announcement. The game space of non - redeemed convertible bonds is more prominent, and different buy - sell window combinations can obtain positive returns. In the case of a redemption announcement, the short - term trading value is relatively limited [53][54]. IV. In 2026, the Game Opportunities Increase Further, and the Participation Strategy Needs Key Attention 4.1 In 2026, the Forced Redemption of Convertible Bonds May be More Frequent, and the Forced Redemption Game Opportunities Increase - In 2026, the environment for forced redemptions is more mature. Some convertible bonds are more likely to meet the forced redemption conditions, and the issuer's willingness to implement forced redemptions is higher. There are already some convertible bonds approaching the forced redemption trigger conditions, and the forced redemption trigger may enter a concentrated stage [57][58]. 4.2 2026 Forced Redemption Game Trading Window and Operation Suggestions - Based on the 2025 trading window sensitivity analysis, the operation idea of "entering the market close to the announcement and exiting opportunistically after the announcement" is still more suitable in 2026. The appropriate participation interval is T - 3 to T - 1 before the announcement, and the exit strategy around T + 10 after the announcement performs better. Pay attention to high - β stocks and non - redeemed convertible bonds in the valuation repair process [61][63].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the commercialization pipeline is expected to confirm a sales turning point, with renewed emphasis on internationalization of the pipeline [3] - The company anticipates achieving revenue of USD 330-450 million in its oncology/immunology business for 2026, with projected revenues of CNY 46.89 billion, CNY 50.40 billion, and CNY 55.07 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [3][4] - The report highlights that the domestic sales of the drug Fuzuloparib are expected to improve significantly in the second half of 2025, driven by team restructuring and new indications being included in the medical insurance [3] Financial Projections - For 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of CNY 4,530 million, with a year-over-year growth rate of -24% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 271 million in 2024, with a significant increase to CNY 3,212 million in 2025, followed by CNY 459 million in 2026 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be CNY 0.31 in 2024, increasing to CNY 3.68 in 2025 and further to CNY 0.53 in 2026 [1] Market Performance - The report notes that the overseas market for Fuzuloparib is expected to continue its mid-to-high-speed growth, with sales projected at USD 370 million in 2025, reflecting a 26% year-over-year growth [3] - The report also mentions that the domestic sales of other drugs, such as Savolitinib and Sunitinib, are expected to see a narrowing decline in sales in the second half of 2025, indicating a potential stabilization in market competition [3] Pipeline Development - The report emphasizes the company's leadership in small molecule drug development, with ongoing internationalization of its pipeline, including the anticipated results from the SAFFRON trial for Savolitinib expected in mid-2026 [3] - The company is also advancing its ATTC projects, with clinical trials for new candidates expected to commence in 2026, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current convertible bond market risk preference tends to converge, and the overall valuation is at a high level. Portfolio operations should prioritize defense. Implement a style re - balance from growth to value within the dumbbell - type allocation framework, and adopt a trading strategy centered on long - volatility [1]. - The convertible bond market showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The core driving factor was the decline in the market's risk preference due to increased external uncertainties, which suppressed the valuation and price performance of convertible bonds. The dumbbell strategy may be advantageous in the short - term, and the style within the portfolio should be re - balanced [2][11]. - Most styles in the convertible bond market were under pressure last week. Strong - momentum varieties were cashed out, and many style factors became ineffective. Investors should focus on defense and avoid high - risk, high - deviation varieties [3][14]. - In the future, a trading strategy centered on long - volatility is recommended. The dumbbell strategy framework can be maintained, but the style should be re - balanced by reducing the growth - style positions and increasing value - type varieties. Industries with relatively low valuations such as coal, steel, and chemical can be considered for layout [4][19]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - Last week (from March 9th to March 13th, 2026), the convertible bond market showed an oscillating downward trend. The decline in the overall market's risk preference due to external uncertainties suppressed the valuation and price of convertible bonds. The dumbbell strategy may be advantageous in the short - term, and the style within the portfolio should be re - balanced from the previous high - growth direction to the value style [11]. - The convertible bond market was comprehensively adjusted last week, with a significant contraction in risk preference. Most styles were under pressure, and strong - momentum varieties were cashed out, causing many style factors to become ineffective. Investors should focus on defense and transfer to hedging targets with better valuation protection or independent fundamental support [14]. - In the short - term, the growth style is in an unfavorable environment. The dumbbell strategy should prioritize defense in the short - term, focusing on the value style, and adhere to the growth direction in the long - term [16]. - In the future, a trading strategy centered on long - volatility is recommended. The dumbbell strategy framework can be maintained, but the style should be re - balanced by reducing the growth - style positions and increasing value - type varieties. Industries with relatively low valuations such as coal, steel, and chemical can be considered for layout [19]. 2. Convertible Bond Market Conditions 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - Not provided in the given content

Group 1 - The company Kailaiying (002821.SZ) announced plans to use up to 4.5 billion yuan of idle self-owned funds to purchase safe and liquid financial products [1] - The investment period for these financial products will not exceed 12 months from the date of approval by the board of directors [1] - The source of funds will be idle self-owned funds, and it will not involve the use of raised funds or bank credit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kailaiying, announced plans to utilize up to 4.5 billion RMB of idle self-owned funds to purchase short-term financial institution wealth management products that are high in safety and liquidity [1] Group 1 - The investment will be made within a timeframe of 12 months starting from March 13, 2026, as approved by the company's board of directors [1] - The funds can be recycled within the approved limit and timeframe [1] - The decision does not require submission to the shareholders' meeting for approval [1]

Market Strategy - The three major indices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with active performance in the electric power sector [5][7] - The overall A-share market saw a decline of 0.53%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.10% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.96% [7] - The coal, public utilities, and agriculture sectors performed well, while telecommunications, machinery, and defense sectors lagged behind [8] Industry Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly lowered its oil supply growth forecast due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history [25][26] - The IEA now expects an increase of only 1.1 million barrels per day in oil supply this year, down from a previous estimate of 2.4 million barrels per day [26] Company Updates - Haisco (002653.SZ) announced that its innovative drug HSK31679 has been included in the list of breakthrough therapy drugs, marking a significant advancement in the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis [27][28] - Tianwei Foods (603317.SH) reported a revenue of 3.449 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.79%, and a net profit of 570 million yuan, down 8.79% year-on-year [29][30] - Haixin Foods (002702.SZ) is focusing on the development of new snack products and plans to expand production lines and increase automation in 2026 [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Insights - The overseas sales of Furazolidone continue to grow, with a positive revenue guidance for 2026. The total market sales for the company in 2025 are projected to be $525 million (+5%), with overseas sales of Furazolidone reaching $366 million (+26%). This growth is primarily driven by the expansion in global markets. However, sales in China are expected to decline by 13% to $100 million [9][21]. - The company is advancing its ATTC platform, with the first molecule A251 entering clinical trials in December 2025. The second molecule A580 is set to start clinical trials in March 2026, and a third candidate A830 is expected to begin Phase 1 trials by the end of 2026. The company plans to seek collaboration opportunities with multinational pharmaceutical companies for its ATTC candidates [2][19]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2026-2027 due to sales adjustments, projecting revenues of $623 million and $745 million for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The net profit is expected to be $53 million and $89 million for the same years [3][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of $630 million in 2024, decreasing to $549 million in 2025, and then increasing to $623 million in 2026, $745 million in 2027, and $864 million in 2028. The net profit is projected to be $38 million in 2024, significantly increasing to $434 million in 2025, and then decreasing to $53 million in 2026, with a gradual increase to $129 million by 2028 [4][22]. - The company expects a significant increase in cash reserves, with $13.67 billion in cash on hand by the end of 2025 [9]. Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is reported at 21.98 HKD, with a market capitalization of 19,174 million HKD. The stock has a 52-week high of 30.75 HKD and a low of 18.36 HKD [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][21]. Core Insights - The overseas sales of Furazolidone continue to grow, with a positive revenue guidance for 2026. The total market sales for the company in 2025 are projected to be $525 million (+5%), with overseas sales of Furazolidone reaching $366 million (+26%). This growth is primarily driven by the expansion in global markets. However, sales in China are expected to decline by 13% to $100 million [9][21]. - The company is advancing its ATTC platform, with the first molecule A251 entering clinical trials in December 2025. A580 is set to start clinical trials in March 2026, and a third candidate, A830, is expected to begin Phase 1 trials by the end of 2026. The company plans to seek collaboration opportunities with multinational pharmaceutical companies for its ATTC candidates in 2026 [2][19]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in the company's earnings forecast for 2026-2027 due to sales adjustments, with new projections for 2028. Expected revenues for 2026-2028 are $623 million, $745 million, and $864 million, respectively. The net profit for 2026-2028 is projected to be $53 million, $89 million, and $129 million, respectively [3][21]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected at $457 million, largely due to the recognition of a $416 million gain from the sale of a 45% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals [9]. - The total revenue for the oncology/immunology business is expected to decline by 21% to $286 million in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in sales of oncology products in the Chinese market [9][21]. - The company expects to have cash on hand of $1.367 billion by the end of 2025 [9]. Clinical Development - The report highlights that the clinical data for the combination of Savolitinib and Tarceva in treating second-line MET amplified EGFR mutation NSCLC is expected to be released in 2026. The SACHI study in China is set to read out data at the ASCO 2025 conference, with domestic approval anticipated in June 2025 [2][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to sustainable global commercialization growth and promising potential of the ATTC platform [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of $549 million for 2025, a decrease of 12.96% year-on-year, while net profit surged to $457 million, reflecting a growth of 1111.03% [7]. - The oncology/immunology business generated $286 million in revenue, with significant contributions from milestone payments [7]. - The company holds a strong cash position of $1.367 billion, indicating robust financial health [7]. - The ATTC platform is entering clinical validation stages, with multiple candidates progressing through trials [7]. - Future catalysts include various product approvals and clinical trial initiations, which are expected to drive revenue growth [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at $632 million, $771 million, and $890 million respectively, with growth rates of 15.2%, 21.9%, and 15.5% [6][8]. - The forecasted net profit for 2026 is $91 million, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [6][8]. - The company’s reasonable equity value is estimated at HKD 27 billion, based on a DCF calculation with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and WACC of 7.84% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Pharmaceutical has shown a slight increase in stock price and has a significant market presence in the production of analgesic and antipyretic medications, with a focus on flu treatment and other therapeutic areas [1][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xinhua Pharmaceutical is a major global producer of analgesic medications, including Ibuprofen and Aspirin, widely used for flu-related symptoms [2][12]. - The company also produces medications for liver disease and has a range of products for treating Helicobacter pylori infections [3][13]. - Xinhua Pharmaceutical has established online sales channels and partnerships with hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies [4][14]. - The company signed a framework cooperation agreement with Alibaba Group in March 2018 to collaborate in various fields, including B2B business and cloud computing [4][14]. - As of September 30, 2025, Xinhua Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 6.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, while net profit decreased by 25.53% to 256 million yuan [9][19]. Group 2: Financial Analysis - The stock's average trading cost is 16.26 yuan, with the current price near a support level of 15.44 yuan [7][18]. - The main capital inflow today was 1.0508 million yuan, accounting for 0.02% of the total, with a ranking of 55 out of 158 in the industry [4][15]. - The distribution of shares is very dispersed, with the main capital accounting for only 7.4% of the total transaction amount [6][17]. - The number of shareholders decreased by 7.60% to 70,700 as of September 30, 2025 [9][20].