双重风暴眼成型，美元霸权墙基正被自己人凿穿 关税核弹引爆全球，特朗普的"胆小鬼游戏"玩脱了 7月12日深夜，特朗普向欧盟甩出30%惩罚性关税的"最后通牒"，德国车企首当其冲——若关税落地，宝马在美单车成本暴涨2000欧元，相当于每卖一辆车 就倒贴半年利润。欧盟贸易专员公开表态："这不是贸易谈判，是经济恐怖主义。" 表面看是为"纠正贸易不公平"，实则暗藏三重算计：强逼欧盟接受转基因农产品和数字主权让步；为摇摆州制造业捞取5-8个百分点的支持率；转移37万亿 美元债务危机的焦点。这套"极限施压"剧本曾屡试不爽，但这次欧盟不再退缩——930亿欧元反制清单已上膛，瞄准波本威士忌、哈雷摩托等美国标志性产 品。 更危险的是市场预期正在崩塌。华尔街设计的"特朗普妥协对冲策略"彻底失灵——原本押注白宫会在8月1日前退缩的交易员集体踩踏出逃。IMF紧急下调全 球增长预期至2.8%，警告贸易战或抹去1.2%的全球经济总量。 美联储深陷政治泥潭，独立性的最后防线告急 债务危机与关税风暴形成死亡螺旋：关税推升进口成本→加剧通胀→迫使美联储维持高利率→美债利息支出暴增→财政赤字扩大→需要发更多债。摩根大通 测算，按照当前举债速度，20 ...

东风商用车有限公司将免费为召回范围内的车辆重新粘贴反光标识，以消除安全隐患。 三、召回编号S2025M0097I：自即日起，召回2024年10月12日至2025年3月19日生产的部分东风KR系列 货车，共计67辆。 本次召回范围内的部分车辆，侧防护装置前端未安装带圆角的垂直构件，不满足国家相关标准的要求。 如果车辆发生碰撞，可能无法起到有效防护作用，存在安全隐患。 东风商用车有限公司将免费为召回范围内的车辆顶棚杆重新焊接固定，以消除安全隐患。 二、召回编号S2025M0096I：自即日起，召回2024年9月1日至2025年3月15日期间生产的部分东风KR系 列货车，共计193辆。 本次召回范围内的部分车辆，反光标识粘贴间距不满足国家相关标准的要求，反光效果不良，存在安全 隐患。 经济观察网 据市场监管总局网站消息，日前，东风商用车有限公司根据《缺陷汽车产品召回管理条 例》和《缺陷汽车产品召回管理条例实施办法》的要求，向国家市场监督管理总局备案了召回计划。 一、召回编号S2025M0095I：自即日起，召回2024年11月10日至2025年1月15日期间生产的部分东风KR 系列货车，共计59辆。 本次召回范围内 ...

Core Viewpoint - In June, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a robust growth trend in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth - In June, the industrial added value increased by 0.50% month-on-month, while the growth for the first half of the year was 6.4% year-on-year [1] - By sector, mining increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 1.8% in June [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a 5.7% increase, joint-stock enterprises 7.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 5.5%, and private enterprises 6.2% in June [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in added value in June [2] - Notable growth sectors included coal mining and washing (6.5%), agricultural and sideline food processing (8.2%), and automotive manufacturing (11.4%) [2] - The electronics manufacturing sector also performed well, with computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing growing by 11.0% [2] Group 3: Product Output - In June, 379 out of 623 major industrial products saw year-on-year output growth [3] - Steel production reached 12.784 million tons (up 1.8%), while cement production fell by 5.3% to 15.547 million tons [3] - Notably, new energy vehicle production increased by 18.8% to 1.234 million units, contributing to an overall automotive production increase of 8.8% [3] - The industrial enterprises' product sales rate was 94.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with export delivery value reaching 1.3676 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 4.0% [3]

Economic Performance Overview - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, with a second-quarter growth of 5.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% [2][3] - The overall economic performance is described as stable with progress, achieved under challenging international conditions and increasing external pressures [3] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for the first half of the year increased by 6.4%, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 6.0%, 7.0%, and 1.9% respectively [5] - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, particularly high-end equipment manufacturing, are identified as strong support for industrial growth [6][7] - A potential slowdown in industrial production is anticipated in the second half of the year due to export-related factors [8] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods for June grew by 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [10] - For the first half of the year, retail sales totaled 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year increase [11] - Key trends in consumption include accelerated service consumption, enhanced holiday spending, and a rise in green consumption [12] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 248,654 billion yuan in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [16] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, contrasting with an 11.2% decline in real estate development investment [16] - The investment structure is improving, with a notable increase in high-tech service industry investments [17][18] Future Outlook - The potential for fixed asset investment remains significant, with a focus on mobilizing private investment and optimizing investment environments [18] - The government is expected to enhance infrastructure investment through special bonds and long-term treasury bonds in response to economic fluctuations [19] - Over 300 billion yuan has been allocated to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, with a total investment of 10.21 trillion yuan in projects being promoted to private capital [20]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's total electricity consumption from January to June 2025 reached 56.93 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - The electricity consumption in the secondary industry was 26.99 billion kWh, up 2.5% year-on-year, while the tertiary industry consumed 20.95 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 6.8% [1] - Residential electricity usage was 8.96 billion kWh, showing a significant increase of 7.6% year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - Industrial electricity consumption in Shenzhen totaled 26.01 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, indicating steady industrial development and ongoing transformation [1] - The manufacturing sector accounted for 21.09 billion kWh of electricity consumption, also growing by 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included automotive manufacturing (24.5%), computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (11.4%), instrument manufacturing (8.1%), and pharmaceutical manufacturing (6.6%) [1] Tertiary Sector Dynamics - The service sector exhibited robust performance, with the top three sub-industries in electricity consumption growth being wholesale and retail (19.8%), information transmission, software, and IT services (19.8%), and leasing and business services (9.4%) [1] - The electricity consumption in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector reflects the vitality of the digital economy [1] Data Center and AI Development - Shenzhen is accelerating its development as a leading city in artificial intelligence, with data center electricity consumption growing rapidly [2] - The electricity demand from internet and related services surged by 38.2% year-on-year, with internet data services alone increasing by 42.8% [2] - The Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau is actively engaging with customers for energy-saving renovations and enhancing the green electricity share for data centers [2]

Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 5% and the previous month's 4.8%[1] - The import growth rate was 1.1% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 1.3% and a recovery from -3.4% in May[1] Tariff Impact on Export Prices - There is no substantial evidence that tariffs have led to a significant decline in China's export prices, with the export price index showing a marginal recovery since early 2024, although it remains in negative territory at -2.5% in May 2025[3] - The divergence between export-oriented PPI and non-export-oriented PPI has reached 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2007, indicating a potential for export price recovery[6] Future Export Outlook - For July, high-frequency indicators suggest that export growth may remain resilient but could slow marginally, particularly due to a potential increase in drag from the U.S.[8] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding tariff policies, with a deadline of August 12, may lead to increased export risks in the latter half of the year[9] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. continue to show low growth, contributing a negative 2.4 percentage points to June's overall export growth, while exports to ASEAN countries remain robust, contributing 2.8 percentage points[39] - The overall export growth in June was supported by strong performances in regions like ASEAN, Hong Kong, Africa, and the EU, which collectively added 7 percentage points to the growth[39]

Core Points - In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points compared to January-May. For the first half of the year, the growth rate was 6.4% [1] - The strong support for the 6.4% growth rate comes from advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, particularly high-end equipment manufacturing, which significantly supports the overall industrial economy [1] - Emerging industries such as humanoid robots and 3D printing equipment are expected to see industrialization in the coming years, providing new growth points for the domestic economy [1] Industry Analysis - In June, 36 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in various sectors: non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing grew by 9.2%, general equipment manufacturing by 7.8%, specialized equipment manufacturing by 4.6%, automotive manufacturing by 11.4%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 11.4% [2] - The mining industry saw a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, manufacturing increased by 7.4%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry grew by 1.8% [1] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that industrial production momentum may weaken in the second half of the year due to factors such as declining exports. It is expected that the annual growth rate of industrial added value will be around 4.8%, primarily impacted by the decline in export growth [4] - The share of export delivery value in China's industrial output is close to 40%, indicating that industrial production growth may experience a sustained slowdown, with a shift in economic growth momentum towards the service sector [4] - Two factors are expected to influence industrial production growth in the second half: the expansion of "anti-involution" efforts leading to sustained production limits in sectors like crude steel and photovoltaics, and a potential decline in export growth following previous "export rush" activities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 145 to 155 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 97.1% to 110.7% [5] - The company has officially reached production capacity of 30,000 sets of screw rods, which is a significant milestone for its robotics business [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 to 331 million yuan, up from a previous estimate of 311 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in its traditional business and potential in robotics [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,648 million yuan in 2024 to 2,545 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 54.5% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 185 million yuan in 2024 to 331 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 78.9% [6] - The company's earnings per share is forecasted to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2024 to 0.51 yuan in 2025 [6]

汇率波动还波及其他领域。韩国美妆代购直播开播就喊出"汇率破7狂喜！雪花秀套装立减80！"的口号，后台订单量半小时内突破五千单；外贸企业会计小 周忙着调整报价单，给迈阿密客户的邮件里，新款庭院帐篷降价5%，并在末尾加上了感谢语；伦敦布伦特原油报价每桶下跌0.8美元，中东油轮纷纷改道驶 向青岛港，上海原油期货人民币结算量单日激增17%，沙特阿美高管连夜飞抵浦东；深圳宝安机场的货机塞满跨境电商包裹，货运经理老林催促工人："麻 利点！赶美联储下次会议前全发走！"；留学机构顾问的手机被打爆，波士顿大学的催款邮件躺在学生邮箱里，学费缴费单上的数字少了许多，陈女士握着 汇款凭证松了一口气："这汇率够孩子半年生活费了！" 银行柜员小陈一天办理了两百笔结汇业务，手指敲键盘敲到发麻；换汇大厅的电子屏红得刺眼，大 爷大妈们举着存折挤到柜台前，有人后悔上周换汇太早；外汇黄牛在柜台前直拍大腿："美元存货全砸手里了！" 中国银行7月12日下午3点挂出的人民币卖 出价为7.1686，这意味着换1万美元比上周少掏近200元人民币。 这场汇率风暴仍在继续，其影响将深远且复杂。 全球金融市场正经历一场剧烈震荡。7月12日下午，人民币兑美元汇率突 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Seres Automotive Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent for a testing device and method for magnetorheological dampers, indicating its focus on innovation in automotive technology [1] - The patent application was published under the number CN120313892A, with an application date of April 2025 [1] - The testing device includes components such as a support part, connection part, force angle adjustment part, lifting rotation mechanism, and pressure output mechanism, designed to simulate the real working conditions of magnetorheological dampers [1] Group 2 - Seres Automotive Co., Ltd. was established in 2012 and is located in Chongqing, primarily engaged in the automotive manufacturing industry [2] - The company has a registered capital of approximately 1.063 billion RMB [2] - Seres has made investments in 9 companies, participated in 26 bidding projects, and holds 3127 patents along with 525 trademark registrations [2]