1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US labor market is cooling, and Fed officials' remarks have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut, leading to a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a weakening short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Treasury bonds will likely remain at a high level and fluctuate, also suggesting cautious waiting and seeing. In the commodity sector, black metals will be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will be fluctuating strongly, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US August "small non - farm" was below expectations, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and private enterprise recruitment slowed in August, indicating a cooling labor market. Fed officials said that a rate cut over time is appropriate, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [2]. - Domestic: China's August official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 but was below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. There is an enhanced expectation of US easing and domestic easing, but the domestic market sentiment has cooled [2]. - Asset performance: The stock index will fluctuate in the short term; treasury bonds will be at a high - level and fluctuate; black metals will be weakly fluctuating; non - ferrous metals will be strongly fluctuating; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level. All suggest cautious operations [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and communications, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The fundamentals and policies are similar to the macro - finance situation. The short - term upward macro - drive is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously in the short term [3]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot market was stable on Thursday, and the futures price continued to be weak. In the traditional peak demand season, the actual demand was still weak, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreasing by nearly 300,000 tons and the inventory increasing by nearly 320,000 tons. Due to phased production restrictions, the steel output decreased by 236,800 tons this week, and the iron - water output is expected to decline slightly. The first round of coke price increase failed, and a price cut started. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong on Thursday. Phased production restrictions in the northern region reduced ore demand and affected port desilting volume. However, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and they are likely to resume production next week. The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [4][5]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in Inner Mongolia was stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity expected in October. In Ningxia, the operation was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The silicon iron price has cost support, and the production reduction intention is not strong. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply decreased this week, but there is still supply pressure in the new capacity launch cycle, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The demand was stable week - on - week, and the profit decreased. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.3.5 Glass - The main glass contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply increased slightly, the demand was stable, and the profit increased slightly. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - US job openings in July dropped to the lowest level in 10 months, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. However, a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, which may boost copper prices briefly [7]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices were weak on Thursday, and the inventory continued to increase. Although it is the peak season, demand is poor. The mid - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. A Fed rate cut in September may support the futures price [7][8]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [8]. 3.4.4 Tin - The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. The supply of tin ore will be more abundant in the future. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory decreased last week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract rose 1.05% on Thursday. The inventory is gradually being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [9]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - The main industrial silicon contract rose 0.12% on Thursday. Polysilicon is fluctuating at a high level, and industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract rose 0.55% on Thursday. There are expectations of capacity integration in the market. Polysilicon is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [10]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose 0.17% overnight. The USDA weekly export sales report was postponed. The market is waiting for the September 12 USDA report to see if it will revise the US soybean yield. The Midwest is experiencing drought, which has reduced the excellent - good rate [11]. 3.5.2 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic oilseeds have preventive procurement in the third quarter, with high import volumes and increasing operating rates, resulting in a large phased inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The price of US soybeans is likely to be under pressure after September 12 if the yield remains unchanged. Brazilian export quotes are rising. The future trend of rapeseed meal depends on Sino - Canadian trade policies [12]. 3.5.3 Oils - CBOT soybean oil futures rose overnight, and BMD palm oil futures also increased slightly. September palm oil exports are expected to be strong, but the future market depends on production data. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons. Domestic palm oil imports have a deeper profit inversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.5.4 Corn - New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. In North China, corn prices are stable, with tight channel inventories. The port inventory is low, and the futures market has rebounded, which is positive for the market [13]. 3.5.5 Pigs - The spot price of pigs has rebounded and is weakly stable. In September, both supply and demand of pigs will increase. The cost of secondary fattening is at a low - profit level, and there is support from the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle. The pig price should not be overly pessimistic in September [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the point differences and annualized costs of stock index futures roll - over on September 3rd [1][2][12][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On September 3rd, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points with a trading volume of 1012.296 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65% to 12472.0 points with a trading volume of 1351.79 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46% with a trading volume of 486.667 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 1.34% with a trading volume of 449.58 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.07% with a trading volume of 161.065 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68% with a trading volume of 655.697 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 dropped 107.0 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and computer significantly pulled the index down [2] - The CSI 500 dropped 93.23 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as computer, non - bank finance, and national defense and military industry significantly pulled the index down [2] - The CSI 300 dropped 30.62 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as power equipment and communication significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as banks, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index down [2] - The SSE 50 dropped 31.89 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as pharmaceutical biology significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as banks, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index down [2] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 72.73, IM01 had - 133.83, IM02 had - 271.16, and IM03 had - 448.11 [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 79.74, IC01 had - 130.22, IC02 had - 237.48, and IC03 had - 382.87 [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 16.61, IF01 had - 23.0, IF02 had - 42.88, and IF03 had - 63.45 [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 4.99, IH01 had - 5.58, IH02 had - 6.58, and IH03 had - 4.13 [12] 3.4 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides the point differences and annualized costs of roll - over for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points, such as for the IF contract, at 09:45, the point differences between different contracts (e.g., IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678) are presented [20][21][23][24][25]

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Core Insights - The total scale of private asset management products by securities and futures institutions reached 12.48 trillion yuan as of the end of July 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 385.84 billion yuan, or 3.19% [1] Group 1: Product Registration and Scale - In July 2025, a total of 1,874 private asset management products were registered, representing a month-on-month increase of 33.95% and a year-on-year increase of 113.44% [2] - The established scale of these products was 105.97 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 93.58% and a year-on-year increase of 95.02% [2] Group 2: Product Types and Investment Categories - The number and scale of existing collective asset management plans were significantly higher compared to other types [3] - Fixed income products accounted for the largest proportion in both number and scale among the four product categories, followed by mixed products in terms of quantity and equity products in terms of scale [4][6] - In July, the average establishment scale of registered collective products was 9.1 million yuan, up 37.83% month-on-month, while single products averaged 2.7 million yuan, up 52.45% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Institutional Types - Securities companies and their subsidiaries had the highest proportion of registered private asset management products in July [7] - The average management scale of private asset management products for securities companies and their subsidiaries was 60.79 billion yuan, with a median of 22.83 billion yuan [8]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Group 1 - The core initiative is the "Hand-in-Hand Teaching You to Read Market Trends" series of short videos launched by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and its information subsidiary to enhance investor education and protection [1][2] - The short videos aim to simplify complex financial knowledge into easily understandable content, covering a wide range of investment topics including stocks, funds, bonds, and derivatives [2][3] - The series includes practical and targeted content, focusing on understanding market trends, data interpretation, and warning against illegal stock recommendations and market risks [2] Group 2 - The initiative reflects a shift towards using short videos as a key medium for investor services, driven by the rise of 5G technology and generative AI, marking a new phase of intelligent, automated, and scalable investor services [3] - The series has received significant attention on various platforms such as Douyin, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Xiaohongshu, showcasing innovative formats that engage viewers [2] - Future plans include ongoing releases of the short videos and live events to provide deeper and more convenient information access for retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The futures concept sector increased by 0.66% compared to the previous trading day, with Quzhou Development leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56, up 1.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07, up 2.26% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Quzhou Development (600208) closed at 5.15, up 6.40%, with a trading volume of 3.8296 million shares and a turnover of 1.908 billion [1] - Yuanda Environmental (600292) closed at 12.87, up 2.80%, with a trading volume of 319,100 shares and a turnover of 411 million [1] - New Huangpu (600638) closed at 6.28, up 2.61%, with a trading volume of 360,100 shares and a turnover of 225 million [1] - Zhongjin Lingnan (000060) closed at 5.23, up 2.55%, with a trading volume of 1.1073 million shares and a turnover of 578 million [1] - Meihu Co., Ltd. (616509) closed at 37.50, up 2.38%, with a trading volume of 274,800 shares and a turnover of 1.035 billion [1] - Zhejiang Oriental (600120) closed at 6.78, up 2.26%, with a trading volume of 2.502 million shares and a turnover of 1.699 billion [1] - Wuchan Zhongda (600704) closed at 5.76, up 2.13%, with a trading volume of 1.2512 million shares and a turnover of 719 million [1] - Yuexiu Capital (000987) closed at 8.14, up 1.62%, with a trading volume of 762,700 shares and a turnover of 619 million [1] - Xiamen International Trade (600755) closed at 6.45, up 1.57%, with a trading volume of 390,200 shares and a turnover of 250 million [1] - Cinda Securities (601059) closed at 19.99, up 1.37%, with a trading volume of 1.9404 million shares and a turnover of 4.007 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The futures concept sector experienced a net outflow of 2.26 billion from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 1.372 billion [2][3] - Major stocks like Yuanda Environmental and New Huangpu had varying net inflows and outflows from different types of investors, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is bearish due to factors such as tax periods, fiscal supply, and limited policy easing. The long - term trend depends on the real estate market. If real estate policies are effective and housing prices stop falling, it will be bearish for long - term treasury bonds; if the real estate market remains sluggish, the bond market has medium - to - long - term allocation value [1][4][5][21][35][53] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs "The 'Inflection Point' Series Report Review" - The previous four reports in this series established a logical chain from policy anchors to the money market and then to the market curve. Report 1 focused on the contradiction between policy easing and weak economic fundamentals; Report 2 emphasized the reshaping of the interest rate regulation anchor; Report 3 analyzed the full - chain effects of "dual interest rate cuts"; Report 4 explored the evolution of the yield curve after dual interest rate cuts [13][15][16][18] "Liquidity and the Money Market: Disturbances Gradually Intensify, and It May Tighten Periodically" - In August, the money market was "loose but trending towards tightness with intensified fluctuations". DR007 and R007 fluctuated, and the money market was sensitive to disturbances. The short - term rise in interest rates compressed the arbitrage space and put pressure on leveraged funds, and the short - term pattern of treasury bond futures was bearish [21][23] "Monetary Policy: The Loose Tone Remains Unchanged, Pay Attention to Short - Term Interest Rate Risks" - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report continued the "moderate easing" tone, with more emphasis on liquidity stability and targeted support. The marginal interest rate cut was less than expected, and the bond market lacked significant short - term positives [21][28] "Real Estate: The Core of Confidence Drag, Marginal Improvement Remains to Be Seen" - Real estate is the core drag on the economy, with continuous declines in housing prices and investment. Policy support signals are obvious, but it is difficult to reverse the downward trend in the short term. If the real estate market stabilizes, it will be bearish for long - term treasury bonds; if it continues to decline, the bond market has long - term allocation value [4][21][34][35] "Risk Points: Hidden Worries Beyond Real Estate" - Consumption, investment, and exports are all restricted. Consumption recovery lacks sustainability, investment growth is weak, and external demand is under pressure. In addition, the rise in the stock market and commodity prices has led to a shift in funds from the bond market, and the supply of interest - rate products has increased [44][49][51] "Treasury Bond Futures Strategy" - In the short term, treasury bond futures are in a weak pattern due to money market disturbances, rising risk appetite, and increased supply pressure. In the long term, the trend depends on the real estate market. The current strategy should be short - term bearish, and long - term positions should be adjusted dynamically according to the real estate and consumption recovery [53]

Core Viewpoint - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as funds flow from the bond market to the stock market, leading to a decline in bond prices while stock indices reach new highs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high of 3766.21 points, while most government bond futures declined [1]. - From August 1 to August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3568 to 3728 points, with corresponding increases in government bond yields across various maturities [2]. - On August 18, major stock indices hit recent highs, coinciding with significant declines in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 1.33% [3]. Group 2: Government Bond Yields - The yields on 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds increased by 1.31 basis points, 8.13 basis points, and 10.196 basis points, respectively, with the 30-year yield surpassing 2% [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 0.9 basis points to 2.0375% [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced support operations for government bonds to enhance liquidity in the secondary market, but this did not reverse the downward trend in bond prices [4]. - The strong performance of the stock market is identified as a core reason for the decline in government bond futures, with increased risk appetite and tight funding conditions contributing to market pressure [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market environment shows weak support for bond bulls, with expectations of limited downward movement in bond prices due to a combination of slow domestic demand recovery and a generally loose liquidity environment [5]. - Despite short-term pressures on the bond market, there is a belief that fundamental and liquidity support will prevent overly pessimistic outlooks for the bond market in the medium to long term [5].

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