播恩集团（001366）公告，预计2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损1380 ～1530万元，上年同期为亏损404.11万元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损1450～1600万元，上年同 期为亏损611.2万元；基本每股收益亏损0.09元/股～0.1元/股，上年同期为亏损0.03元/股。2025年上半 年，公司营业收入预计较上年同期增长30%-40%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润较上年同期有所下降。 业绩变动主要原因是公司部分新建成投产的工厂尚处于产能爬坡阶段，产能未能有效释放，已竣工的厂 房进行折旧摊销等固定成本增加，导致整体毛利率水平下降。同时，公司客户结构发生变化，应收账款 大幅增加，导致计提的坏账准备相应增加。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Views - In the second quarter of 2025, the average price of live pigs is expected to be 14.5 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous quarter and 11.4% year-on-year. However, due to the decline in raw material prices and improved breeding performance, listed companies are optimizing costs [15][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining low at an average of 11.3 CNY/kg, down 2.4% quarter-on-quarter and 15.5% year-on-year. The profitability of leading companies like Wen's Group may be under pressure due to these price declines [15][16] - The feed sector is benefiting from stable pig prices and rising aquatic product prices, with Haida Group expected to achieve a feed sales volume of approximately 13.65 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [15][16] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The national price of lean meat pigs is 14.54 CNY/kg, down 2% from last week. The current valuation remains relatively low, with a focus on leading companies and low-cost high-growth targets such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Group [2][16] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 6.24 CNY/kg, down 7.6% from last week, while chicken product prices average 8.38 CNY/kg, down 0.9% [16][30] - The price of parent stock chicken chicks is 47.2 CNY/set, up 1% week-on-week, while the price of meat chicken chicks is 0.99 CNY each, down 27.2% [26][28] Feed Sector - Haida Group is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.218-1.518 billion CNY in the second quarter, with a year-on-year change of -3.64% to +20.1% [15][16] - The pet feed industry continues to maintain high growth, with expectations for Zhongchong Group to achieve a net profit of approximately 120 million CNY in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 40% [15][16] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as actual transaction prices and profit distribution are confirmed [16] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller companies due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to resonate positively, with strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025 [4][5] - The leading pig companies are reporting significant profit increases for Q2 2025, with a notable rise in pig output and a decrease in production costs, indicating a potential for sustained profitability [4][13] - The beef cycle remains supported by rising calf prices and a decrease in cattle inventory, suggesting a favorable outlook for beef prices in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [6][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Leading pig companies are expected to report substantial profit growth for H1 2025, with estimates for Muyuan Foods indicating a net profit of 10.2-10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [4][13] - The average cost of production for Muyuan Foods has decreased to below 12.1 yuan/kg, supporting profitability through the cycle [4][13] Market Performance - The agricultural index has risen by 1.09% in the week of July 4-11, 2025, aligning with the overall market performance [39][41] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply contraction, which is expected to drive pig prices upward after a period of fluctuation [5][14] Price Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% from the previous week, while the price of piglets has increased by 1.79% to 31.89 yuan/kg [48][49] - The wholesale price of beef is reported at 69.82 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [56] Recommendations - The report recommends investment in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others in the pig farming sector due to improving investment logic and favorable market conditions [6][35] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to strong domestic and overseas demand [35]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector, noting a slowdown in the growth rate of breeding sows in June, and highlights the expectation gap in the pig market [1][2] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating a robust growth potential [3][4] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white chickens and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens, with investment recommendations based on supply and demand dynamics [5][6][7] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding, with recommendations for key seed and agricultural companies [9][10] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, while the animal health sector is advised to focus on new demands and innovative products [24][25] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 12, the average price of pigs in China is 14.91 CNY/kg, down 2.42% from the previous week, with self-breeding profits around 177 CNY per head [1][16] - The report highlights the low valuation and expectation gap in the pig sector, recommending leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][16] Pet Sector - In June 2025, pet sales on Douyin reached 964 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 73.97%, indicating strong growth for domestic brands [3][17] - Pet food exports from China increased by 10.89% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, reaching 41.75 billion CNY [4][17] Poultry Sector - The report notes a 33.46% year-on-year decline in the breeding stock of grandparent chickens due to import restrictions, with a total of 529,300 sets updated in the first half of 2025 [5][19] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock [6][20] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for high yield production to ensure food security, with a focus on integrating advanced agricultural technologies [9][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies such as Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [10][23] Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is highlighted for companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market share growth and performance consistency [24][26] - The animal health sector is advised to focus on new product development and market expansion, particularly in the pet health segment [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - Recent policy guidance has led to a rapid decline in post-slaughter weight, allowing for a rebalancing of volume and price, with positive expectations for pig prices [3] - The long-term perspective indicates that the bottom of the production capacity cycle is becoming clearer, suggesting a potential long-term profit upturn for the sector [3] - The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including pig farming, feed, and planting chains, as well as the pet food sector [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.2681 million pigs, a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55% [2][13] - The average selling price of pigs decreased by approximately 3% month-on-month and about 20% year-on-year, with prices ranging from 13.23 to 15.57 yuan/kg [14][15] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in June was 125.06 kg, down 0.77 kg from May, indicating a trend towards reducing weight [17] Market Dynamics - The national average price for live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg as of July 11, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.52% [28] - The demand for pork is weakening due to high temperatures affecting consumption and rising storage costs, leading to a gradual loosening of supply-demand dynamics [28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture, as well as companies in the feed and animal health sectors like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological [3] - In the planting chain, opportunities are highlighted for companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] Other Segments - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies [3]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit of 3 million to 4.3 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from a loss of 47.98 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 106.25% to 108.96% compared to the same period last year [1] - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0 yuan and 0.01 yuan, compared to a loss of 0.07 yuan per share in the previous year [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in performance is driven by the implementation of the "three highs and three lows" technical strategy and the "four guarantees" product quality system, leading to improved product quality and competitiveness [1] - The company initiated several marketing campaigns in early 2025, which effectively stimulated the sales team's activity and enhanced customer loyalty, resulting in a notable increase in market share [1] - The company's feed sales volume increased by approximately 11.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, contributing positively to revenue growth [1] Group 3 - The company has strengthened accounts receivable management and credit control, leading to a significant decrease in expected credit impairment losses [1]

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 62.5 to 70.5 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 167% to 201% [1] - In Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 28 million yuan, with Q2 projected to be between 34.5 to 42.5 million yuan, and a median estimate of 38.5 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 1144% [1] - The company's profit growth is primarily driven by an increase in the inventory of large-scale breeding companies through direct sales channels, leading to a significant rise in feed sales and revenue [1] Group 2 - The company plans to acquire equity in seven pig farming-related companies through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, aiming to expand its business into the downstream breeding sector using a light asset model [1] - The company is expected to achieve rapid scale expansion by leveraging the existing production capacity and performance advantages of the acquisition targets, which will synergize with its feed business [1] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.168, 4.802, and 5.160 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 164, 198, and 236 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23.83, 19.76, and 16.57x, maintaining a "recommended" rating [2]

Group 1: Core Views - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, highlighting a favorable investment environment for livestock, pet, and pork industries [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes the potential reversal of the beef cycle in 2025, with expectations of rising prices driven by both domestic and international markets [14][21] - The pet industry is identified as a high-growth sector, benefiting from changing consumer demographics and increasing emotional spending [15][18] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations for the livestock sector include Guangming Meat Industry, a rare listed beef company with stable resources from New Zealand, and Muyuan Foods, a leading player in pig farming [1][3][18] - In the pet food sector, Zhongchong Co. is highlighted as a pioneer with synchronized growth in domestic and international markets [1][3][18] - For the pork industry, the report recommends companies such as DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from improving cash flows and dividend ratios [1][3][16] Group 3: Market Trends and Data - As of June 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.85% [2][21] - The report notes a decrease in the price of 7kg piglets to 433 yuan/head, down 13.95% month-on-month, indicating a cautious approach to industry expansion [2][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing increased supply, with expectations of demand recovery, particularly for yellow chickens, which are anticipated to benefit from domestic demand improvements [28][39]

Summary of Agricultural Sector Investment Strategy 2025 Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is experiencing a transition from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with large listed companies improving cash flow and industry profitability becoming differentiated. Leading companies are currently valued at historical lows, with potential for mid-to-long-term profit improvement and increased shareholder returns [1][3][4]. Key Points on Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is undergoing a transformation, with large groups gaining market share and demonstrating significant cost advantages. The industry is entering a phase where leading companies are expected to see rising return on equity (ROE) and increased free cash flow [2][3]. - Recommendations include major players such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Technology, and Dekang Holdings, which exhibit strong cost advantages and high profit realization rates [8]. Pet Food Sector Insights - The pet food sector is in a high-growth phase, with accelerating revenue growth and improved profitability. Leading brands are leveraging product formulation and channel investments to achieve rapid growth. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [5][9]. Feed Sector Recommendations - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment in the feed sector, having achieved significant sales growth of 3 million tons in the first half of the year. Despite potential underperformance in earnings forecasts, the company's competitive position and long-term growth prospects remain strong [6][11]. Swine Farming Industry Dynamics - The swine farming industry has seen a rise in scale, with specialization becoming more pronounced. Large groups focus on breeding while smaller farms concentrate on fattening pigs. The industry has faced overcapacity due to rapid capital expansion post-African swine fever [7][12]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pet food industry has shown strong performance from January to May 2025, despite recent valuation discrepancies. The long-term outlook remains positive, with domestic brands increasingly focusing on high-end products and innovation driving growth [9][10]. - The feed industry is in a late-stage phase, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to enhance their competitive edge, particularly in overseas markets, with annual sales growth projected to exceed 30% [11]. Challenges and Opportunities in Animal Health - The animal health sector faces challenges due to a lack of standout products. However, innovation in vaccines and genetic engineering presents growth opportunities, with companies like KQ Bio being recommended for their strong R&D capabilities [13]. Overall Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the agricultural sector emphasizes a selective approach, focusing on the swine farming and pet food sectors, as well as Haida Group. Investors are advised to pay close attention to these areas to capitalize on potential investment opportunities amid frequent policy changes [14].

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group (002311.SZ) continues to experience growth in performance, with a projected net profit of between 2.5 billion and 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.64% to 31.76% [1][2] Business Performance - The main drivers for Haida Group's performance increase are significant growth in feed sales and substantial profits from pig farming operations [1][2] - The company achieved a revenue of 25.629 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.282 billion yuan, indicating an expected net profit of between 1.218 billion and 1.518 billion yuan for Q2 2025 [2] - The company focuses on its core feed business, aiming to enhance domestic feed capacity utilization and market share, with an expected feed export volume of approximately 13.65 million tons for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26% [2][3] Financial Stability - Despite market fluctuations, Haida Group has maintained strong profitability, with net profits of 2.957 billion yuan and 2.741 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, respectively [3] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 114.601 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.31% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 64.3% to 4.504 billion yuan [3] - As of March 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 46.12%, with cash reserves of 3.542 billion yuan [3] International Expansion - Haida Group has been actively expanding its international presence, with a focus on Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America [5] - In 2024, the company achieved an overseas feed export volume of 2.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [5][6] - The company aims to reach a short-term target of over 3 million tons in export growth by 2025 and a mid-term target of 51.5 million tons in total sales by 2030 [6] Product and Market Strategy - The core business segments of Haida Group include feed, quality animal breeding, and animal health, which together account for over 80% of the company's revenue [2][4] - The company has seen a steady increase in feed sales, with a total of 26.52 million tons sold in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 9% [4] - The company is also expanding its production capacity in key overseas markets, with significant growth in Vietnam and Indonesia, where feed sales are expected to increase by 25-30% and over 40%, respectively, in 2024 [5][6]