热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：公众号方方谈期 2026年豆粕需求怎么样？猪价一路下行，会不会导致产能下降，进而拖累豆粕消费？豆粕作为最重要的 植物蛋白原料，主要用在饲料领域，包括生猪饲料、家禽饲料、水产饲料等。其中生猪饲料是最大的一 块，猪的多少和豆粕消费密切相关。（生猪配图）不过猪的多少和当下的猪价没啥关系，更多是由10个 月以前能繁母猪存栏决定的。 能繁母猪从受孕到产仔需要4个月，仔猪长大到出栏需要6个月，所以能繁母猪对应未来10个月左右出栏 的生猪。而出栏之前的育肥期也是豆粕需求量最大的时候，所以可以把能繁母猪滞后10个月作为豆粕消 费的启动窗口。我们把母猪存栏和推迟10个月的饲料产量放在一起，也可以看到明显的正相关关系。比 如2020年到2021年上半年，母猪存栏快速增加，10个月后饲料的产量也迅速增加。之后存栏在高位，饲 料产量也维持高位。 大家觉得今年豆粕需求怎么样，欢迎评论区交流。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李铁民 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 农业农村部 所以，2026年豆粕需求，大概对应20 ...

清晨的养殖场，工作人员正忙着为水产池投放饲料：肉食性鱼类需要高蛋白配方，草食性鱼类依赖谷物 等植物性原料，虾蟹更讲究饲料的粒径与形状……每一袋饲料都像一份"精准营养菜单"，必须与水产的 习性完美匹配，否则不仅制约生长速度，还可能影响成品的口感和售价——人们日常餐桌上美味河鲜的 背后，是一场饲料企业推进数字化升级的深层考验。 最后，随着监管力度提升，水产、牛蛙等特种领域开始纳入严格的质量追溯体系，通威农发也需要确保 自原料到成品的全过程数据追踪，建立可审计、可追溯、可验证的透明生产链路。 构建面向未来的数字化生产体系 通威农业发展有限公司（以下简称"通威农发"）作为全球领先的水产饲料生产企业及重要的畜禽饲料生 产企业，年产能超过1300万吨，业务覆盖全国大部分地区，并延伸至越南、孟加拉、印度尼西亚等东南 亚市场。近年来，随着市场竞争加剧、监管日益趋严、产品同质化严重，通威农发需要在配方管理、制 造柔性、生产效率与质量管控等方面实现升级。 为了帮助通威农发构建覆盖饲料生产全流程的数字化体系，进一步降本增效，施耐德电气以Plant iT过 程控制解决方案助力其打造饲料行业的智能工厂，实现从配方研发、生产制造到经营管 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly benefiting Hong Kong dairy farming stocks [1]. - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments: Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Lihua Co., among others [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, driven by a recovery in the livestock cycle and improved cash flow for leading companies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with recommendations for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming as key beneficiaries [1][14]. - The report notes that domestic beef production capacity is decreasing, which may lead to price increases through 2028 [14]. - The improvement in raw milk prices is anticipated to benefit dairy farming companies, with a projected profit increase for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [17]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, with leading companies like Huazhong, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods recommended for investment [1][14]. - The report indicates that the industry is moving towards a more stable price center, supported by a reduction in production capacity and improved cash flow for leading firms [15][20]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with recommendations for Lihua Co. and Shengnong Development [1][18]. - The report notes that the supply of white feather chickens is increasing, but demand is expected to improve, leading to potential price recovery [22][24]. Pet Sector - The pet food market is identified as a growing segment, with a focus on domestic brands like Guibao Pet [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the pet sector, driven by rising consumer sentiment and market expansion [16]. Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies like Haida Group recommended [1][18]. - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong support level for future price recovery [18].

本文转自【羊城晚报】； 2月4日，大北农（002385）公告，公司实际控制人、董事长邵根伙先生于2026年2月3日因病离世，享年60岁。公司各位董事、高级管理人员及全体员工对 邵根伙先生的离世表示深切哀悼和缅怀。 邵根伙逝世后，公司现任董事人数由9人减少至8人，不会导致公司董事会成员低于法定最低人数。根据《公司章程》的规定，由公司副董事长张立忠代行 董事长职责，直至公司董事会选举新任董事长为止。 目前，大北农集团官网已变黑。 毕业后，他留在北京农学院当了一名教师。当年的他认为，只有做实业，才能给中国的农业发展带来改变。所以，他放弃了安逸的生活，开始了艰苦的创 业之路。1993年的冬天，邵根伙和朋友揣着2万元，在北京西郊租来的小屋内，创立了北京大北农饲料科技有限责任公司，产品开发的主攻方向定位在乳 猪料配方、乳猪料生产上。经过30多年的发展，大北农集团产业布局涵盖作物、饲料、养殖、动保等多个领域，拥有300多家生产基地和300多家分子公 司。 邵根伙曾荣获"中关村十大优秀企业家""改革开放三十年推动饲料工业发展十大经济人物"等多项荣誉。多次上榜胡润、福布斯全球富豪榜，2025年胡润百 富榜显示其财富为105亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes agricultural modernization, focusing on stabilizing grain production, promoting healthy development in animal husbandry, and enhancing agricultural technology innovation [3][4][5] - The grain production target has been raised to approximately 1.4 trillion jin, with initiatives to improve grain quality and variety [5][6] - The document acknowledges the success of previous measures in the livestock sector and introduces new strategies to boost dairy product consumption [8][9] - Agricultural technology innovation is highlighted, with a focus on the implementation of breeding actions and the integration of AI in agriculture [15][21] Summary by Sections Grain Sector - The document sets a grain production target of stabilizing at around 1.4 trillion jin and emphasizes quality improvement and variety enhancement [5][7] - It includes measures to protect farmers' interests, such as determining minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat [5][7] - The document also stresses the importance of developing a futures market for agricultural products [5][7] Livestock Sector - The document reinforces the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of previous measures in stabilizing the beef and dairy industries [8][9][11] - It promotes measures to enhance dairy product consumption and supports the development of forage crops [9][11] Agricultural Technology - The document continues to emphasize the implementation of breeding actions and the promotion of breakthrough varieties [15][16][17] - It encourages the development of high-end intelligent agricultural machinery and the integration of AI, drones, and IoT into agricultural practices [21][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture [27] - Swine: HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Co., TianKang Bio, and ShenNong Group [27] - Pet Industry: GuaiBao Pet [27] - Feed: HaiDa Group [27] - Poultry: LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., and ShengNong Development [27] - Animal Health: HuiSheng Bio [27] - Planting Chain: Hainan Rubber, QuanYin High-Tech, Guotou Fengle, and LongPing High-Tech [27]

Company Dynamics - The chairman of Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co., Ltd., Shao Genhuo, passed away on February 3, 2026, at the age of 60, prompting the company to express deep condolences by adjusting its website to a black-and-white interface and displaying his portrait [2] - Shao Genhuo, born in Jinhua, Zhejiang, entered Zhejiang Agricultural University in 1982 and later completed his doctoral studies at China Agricultural University, becoming one of the early agricultural PhDs in China [2] - In 1993, he founded Beijing Dabeinong Feed Technology Co., Ltd. with an initial capital of 20,000 yuan, which later evolved into Dabeinong Group, adhering to the philosophy of "serving the country and promoting agriculture" [2] - Dabeinong has expanded from the feed industry to multiple sectors, including seed industry, animal health, and vaccines, establishing itself as a leading enterprise in China's agricultural technology sector [2] - As of the end of 2024, Dabeinong has developed three core business segments: feed, seed, and pig farming, with feed production capacity exceeding 10 million tons and an annual pig output of 6.4 million heads [2] Management Philosophy and Social Responsibility - Shao Genhuo's management philosophy was forward-looking, exemplified by the employee stock ownership plan launched in 2014, where he distributed 6% of his shares (valued at over 1.3 billion yuan) to 3,000 employees, transitioning the company's governance from a family-based model to a platform-based one [3] - Dabeinong has demonstrated a strong sense of social responsibility, with special scholarships totaling over 45 million yuan benefiting more than 36,000 agricultural university students and faculty [3] - Shao Genhuo ranked high on the Harvard China Charity List, with personal donations totaling 150 million yuan in 2021, including a 10 million yuan donation to Xiamen University, reflecting his commitment to "serving the country and promoting agriculture" [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal in the industry [1][12] - The recommended stocks include leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pork, poultry, and pet food, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, benefiting companies like Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [14][17] - The domestic beef market is anticipated to improve due to reduced production capacity and favorable pricing dynamics, with beef prices currently at 61.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.59% [29] - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings recovery for dairy farming companies as milk prices are expected to rebound, driven by improved market conditions [14][17] Pork Sector - The pork sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with January 2026 pork prices at 12.16 yuan/kg, down 4% month-on-month, while piglet prices have surged by 57.86% [20][21] - Leading companies in the pork industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Huazhong Holdings, are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend returns as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The report notes that the industry is undergoing a rationalization process, with a focus on reducing production capacity and enhancing profitability for leading firms [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with broiler prices showing a month-on-month increase of 2.94% to 7.70 yuan/kg, indicating a potential recovery in demand [22][23] - The report suggests that the white-feathered chicken industry is poised for price recovery as domestic demand stabilizes, supported by seasonal consumption trends [22][24] - The overall outlook for poultry remains positive, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand recovery and supply adjustments [22][24] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, with domestic brands gaining market share and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [16][18] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading pet food companies, which are focusing on product upgrades and direct sales strategies to capture market opportunities [16][18] - The pet food export volume has increased by 12.99% month-on-month, indicating robust demand in international markets [16][18] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to benefit from the deepening industrialization of livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for livestock producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, indicating that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have shown a slight increase to 2333 yuan/ton [2][21] - The overall agricultural market is characterized by a focus on supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of tightening supply for key commodities like soybeans and corn [20][21]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal benefiting Hong Kong-listed dairy farming companies [1][12] - The investment strategy highlights a recommended monthly portfolio including leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pig farming, and pet food [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production and a historical low in milk prices [14][29] - Key recommendations include Yuran Dairy and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][17] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with a notable increase in piglet prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for leading companies [20][21] - Recommended companies in this sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Huazhong Holdings, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend returns [3][15] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations of demand recovery supporting price stability, particularly for broiler chickens [22][24] - Leading companies such as Lihua Agricultural and Shengnong Development are highlighted for their competitive advantages in cost management and market positioning [18][19] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands [16][18] - Companies like Guibao Pet Food are recommended for their strong growth potential in this segment [3][16] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to deepen its industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in pork, chicken, and feed prices, with implications for overall market dynamics [2][21] - The analysis indicates that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices are stabilizing, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance in the medium term [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden passing of Shao Genhuo, the actual controller and chairman of Dabeinong, has raised concerns about the company's leadership and future direction [1][3]. Group 1: Company Leadership and Management - Shao Genhuo passed away on February 3 at the age of 60, prompting deep condolences from the board, senior management, and employees of Dabeinong [1][3]. - Following his death, the number of directors in Dabeinong decreased from 9 to 8, but it remains above the legal minimum [3]. - Zhang Lizhong, the vice chairman, will temporarily assume the chairman's responsibilities until a new chairman is elected [3]. Group 2: Company Background and Achievements - Shao Genhuo was the founder and chairman of Dabeinong, with a notable background in agricultural education and entrepreneurship [5]. - Dabeinong has developed a diversified industrial layout covering crops, feed, breeding, and animal health, with over 300 production bases and subsidiaries [5]. - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2010, marking its entry into the capital market [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Dabeinong projected a net loss of 450 million to 580 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 346 million yuan in the previous year [6]. - The anticipated loss is attributed to the sluggish pig market prices and underperformance of invested units, leading to asset impairment losses estimated to impact the company's profit by 600 million to 700 million yuan [6].

【导读】大北农实际控制人、董事长邵根伙因病逝世 中国基金报记者 忆山 2月4日，大北农发布公告称，公司实际控制人、董事长邵根伙于2026年2月3日因病逝世，享年60岁。 资料显示，邵根伙，1965年出生，中共党员，中国农业大学农学博士。曾任教于北京农学院。1994年10月创建北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司。生前任 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司党委书记、董事长，北京大北农生物技术有限公司董事长，兼任浙江大学校董，中关村科技企业家协会会长、全国工商 联执行委员会委员、全联农业产业商会常务会长，北京市工商业联合会（北京市商会）副会长、中国饲料工业协会常务副会长、中国畜牧业协会副会长、 战略咨询委员会常务委员、中国农业技术推广协会副会长、中关村高新技术企业协会副会长、中国兽药协会副会长、北京中关村农业生物技术产业联盟理 事长、中国奶业协会副会长、龙商总会副会长、黑龙江省科技咨询委员会成员、全国农业企业发展联盟饲料产业联盟副主席、中国林牧渔业经济学会第五 届理事会理事、中国畜牧兽医学会副理事长、常务理事、中国农业国际合作促进会国际农业智库副主席、中国农村专业技术协会副理事长、中国植物营养 与肥料学会副理事长、吉林省人 ...