Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the Macau gaming industry, raising the total gaming revenue forecast for 2025 to a 7% year-on-year growth, reaching 83% of the 2019 level [1][46]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - The company has increased the 2025 EBITDA forecast by 3%, expecting a 9% year-on-year growth, recovering to 89% of the 2019 level [2][46]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q2 2025 is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year, reaching $2.098 billion, which is 87% of the Q2 2019 level [2]. Market Dynamics - Macau is gradually transforming into a travel destination centered around entertainment performances, which may help attract more tourists [4]. - The increase in rebate expenses is expected to enhance the market size of the Macau gaming industry, with a focus on absolute EBITDA levels [4]. - The depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar may boost tourism demand from neighboring Asian countries [4][26]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, Macau achieved a total gaming revenue of MOP 61.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.0%, recovering to 83.3% of the Q2 2019 level [6]. - The company expects mass gaming revenue to grow by 2.7% year-on-year, while VIP gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 26.6% year-on-year [6][9]. Factors Driving Growth - The strong performance in Q2 2025 is attributed to popular non-gaming activities attracting tourists, the opening of new hotels, and the relaxation of rebate strategies by gaming operators [7]. - The company notes that the focus on hosting various entertainment events can drive repeat visits and attract new customers to Macau [19]. Strategic Adjustments - Sands China has shifted its market strategy to focus on EBITDA returns rather than restrictive profit margins, which is expected to drive domestic demand [33]. - The company has increased its reinvestment rate since May 2025, which is anticipated to enhance market scale [34]. Hotel and Capacity Insights - By mid-2025, all new properties and renovation projects in Macau are expected to be operational, with a total of 45,200 hotel rooms and an occupancy rate of 88% [43]. - Sands China, with over 12,000 hotel rooms, is positioned to leverage its capacity to attract overseas customers, particularly from Asia [41].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club plans to sell a significant portion of its U.S. assets, valued at up to $1 billion, amid rising geopolitical risks and escalating trade tensions [1] - The assets for sale include investments in well-known private equity firms such as Blackstone, TA Associates Management LP, Warburg Pincus, and Clayton Dubilier & Rice, with one fund alone containing assets worth $700 million [1] - The sale process, led by Jefferies Financial Group, began in the first quarter of the year, with some buyers starting to review the assets in April [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club, as the largest lottery and gaming institution in Hong Kong, manages a substantial investment portfolio, with annual customer betting amounts reaching HKD 305 billion and generating HKD 43 billion in revenue from gaming and lottery operations in 2023 [2] - The current trend of Asian investors reassessing their U.S. asset allocations is reflected in the actions of approximately 10 ultra-high-net-worth family offices and advisory firms that have reduced or paused investments in the U.S. market to mitigate systemic risks arising from political and policy uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - The stocks of New World Development (00200.HK) increased by 6.73% [1] - The shares of SJM Holdings (00880.HK) rose by 5.15% [1] - Wynn Macau (01128.HK) saw a gain of 4.91% in its stock price [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) experienced a 2.09% increase [1]

Market Performance - A-shares showed poor performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,473 points, up 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.7% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.21%[15] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly declined by 0.12% and 0.01% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25%[11] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 422 points or 0.94%, closing at 44,406 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.79% and 0.92% respectively[9] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods, and a 30% tariff on South African products, contributing to market uncertainty and declines in U.S. stocks[9] - The deadline for new tariffs has been extended to August 1, which has led to cautious trading in European markets, with the DAX rising by 1.20% and the FTSE 100 declining by 0.13%[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1% following Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in major crude oil prices, with NYMEX crude up 1.39% to $67.93 per barrel[25] - The gold price initially fell but stabilized later, while industrial metals in London faced declines due to tariff risks[25] Fixed Income Market - The U.S. long-term treasury bonds led the decline, with the yield curve steepening; the 10-year treasury yield rose to 4.38% and the 30-year yield to 4.92%[29] - Asian bond markets experienced mixed trading, with a slight bias towards selling, and spreads widening by 1-2 basis points[29] Key Corporate News - Tesla's stock fell by 6.8% after CEO Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party, raising investor concerns about potential impacts on the company's brand image[9] - Goldin Financial Holdings reported a significant increase in revenue, with a 20.57% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, driven by expansion in overseas markets[18]

Market Overview - US President Trump has issued new tariff policy letters to 14 countries, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.09% to 24,148.07 points, ending a three-day decline [1] - The total trading volume for the day was HKD 213.29 billion, indicating active market participation [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has withdrawn HKD 59.072 billion in liquidity since June 28, tightening liquidity expectations in the short term [1] Blue Chip Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) led blue-chip gains, rising 5.43% to HKD 2.91, contributing 1.04 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) and Chow Tai Fook (01929) also saw significant increases of 5.16% and 4.42%, respectively [2] - However, Orient Overseas International (00316) and China Biologic Products (01177) experienced declines, dragging down the index [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks rebounded, with Kuaishou rising over 5% and Meituan and JD.com both increasing over 2% [3] - Stablecoin concept stocks surged, with Jinyong Investment (01328) skyrocketing 533.17% after announcing a partnership with AnchorX [3] - The Macau gaming sector showed strong performance, with total gaming revenue for the first six days of July reaching MOP 4.3 billion, indicating a robust recovery [6] Solar Industry Insights - The solar sector saw strong gains, with New Special Energy (01799) up 12.65% and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up 10.81% [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to address low-price competition and improve product quality in the solar industry, suggesting potential for supply-side reforms [5] Gaming Sector Developments - Macau's gaming stocks continued to rise, with Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.4% and MGM China (02282) up 3.29% [6] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to see double-digit year-on-year growth in July, marking a cyclical turning point for the industry [6] New Consumption Trends - New consumption stocks performed well, with brands like Blukoo (00325) and Cha Ba Dao (02555) seeing significant increases [6][7] - Gold stocks also rebounded, with Tongguan Gold (00340) rising 6.37% [7] Stablecoin Regulatory Developments - Jinyong Investment announced a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore potential collaborations in digital asset management and stablecoin applications [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is consulting the market on regulatory guidelines for stablecoins, with expectations for a limited number of licenses to be issued [4] Logistics Sector Performance - Jitu Express-W (01519) reached a new high, with a reported 23.5% year-on-year increase in package volume for Q2 2025 [9] - The company achieved a total package volume of 139.9 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong growth in the logistics sector [9] AI and Technology Sector Insights - Hongteng Precision (06088) saw an increase of 8.82%, driven by growing demand for AI-related solutions [10] - The company is expected to benefit from its parent group's resources and the increasing demand for AI computing power [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.09% and the Hang Seng Technology Index leading with a 1.84% increase, surpassing the 24,000-point mark [1] - Major technology stocks experienced collective gains, with Kuaishou up 5.16%, Baidu up 3.55%, and Meituan, Xiaomi, and JD.com all rising over 2% [5][6] Sector Performance - The securities and brokerage sector saw substantial increases, particularly Victory Securities and Guotai Junan, which surged over 33% and 28.5% respectively [3][9] - The gambling sector continued its upward trend, with Jinyi Holdings rising over 14% and Wynn Macau increasing by over 6% [7] - The solar energy sector remained active, with Shunfeng Clean Energy soaring over 30% and several other companies in the sector also posting significant gains [8] - The semiconductor sector also saw positive movement, with SMIC rising over 3% [12] Specific Stock Movements - In the technology sector, notable performers included Kuaishou (up 5.16%), Baidu (up 3.55%), and JD Health (up 3.94%) [5][6][11] - In the gambling sector, Jinyi Holdings rose 14.25%, while Wynn Macau increased by 6.40% [7][16] - The solar energy sector saw Shunfeng Clean Energy increase by 30.43%, with other companies like Sunshine Energy and New Special Energy also showing strong performance [8] - The securities sector had strong gains, with Zhongzhou Securities and Huatai Securities both rising over 4% [9][10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment appears positive, driven by strong performances in technology, securities, and renewable energy sectors, although concerns remain regarding liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties [21][22] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong market remain strong, particularly in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are considered relatively scarce [22]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks continue to rise, with Wynn Macau up 4.55%, SJM Holdings up 2.16%, Sands China up 1.2%, and Melco International Development up 1.01% [1] - Citigroup reported that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first six days of July may have reached approximately 4.3 billion MOP, indicating a daily average of about 717 million MOP, which is a 2% increase compared to June 2025 and a 30% surge compared to July 2024 [1] - Citigroup conservatively raised its forecast for July 2025 gaming revenue from 19.5 billion MOP to 20 billion MOP, anticipating a slowdown in daily gaming revenue after the conclusion of the concert series by Jacky Cheung [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan noted that despite the positive impact of Jacky Cheung's concert and seasonal factors in July, the performance is stronger than in June or May, with expectations of double-digit year-on-year growth for total gaming revenue in July [2] - The report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue has exceeded seasonal and market expectations for three consecutive months, suggesting that the industry has reached a cyclical turning point after a prolonged period of market profit forecast reductions [2]

Market Overview - On July 7, the Hong Kong stock market continued its volatile pattern, with the Hang Seng Index slightly down by 0.1% to close at 23,887 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.3% to 5,229 points, indicating a rebound in the market towards the end of the trading session [1] - Notably, southbound funds saw a rapid increase in buying, with a net inflow of 12 billion HKD, marking the highest single-day inflow in nearly two months [1] - The real estate sector showed strong performance following the Ministry of Housing's statement to "promote the stabilization of the real estate market," while the beverage sector also surged, with companies like Cha Bai Dao and Nayuki's Tea seeing significant gains [1] Macro Dynamics - In the real estate sector, the new home transaction volume saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a reported 1.89 million square meters sold in 30 major cities, down by 1.1% year-on-year, which is an improvement from the previous week's 23.1% decline [3] - Different city categories showed varied performance, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing year-on-year changes of +3.6%, +19.6%, and -41.5%, respectively [3] Industry Dynamics - The consumer sector remained stable amid ongoing negotiations regarding "reciprocal tariffs" with the U.S., while new consumption stocks performed well, with notable gains in companies like Lao Pu Gold and Pop Mart [4] - The new energy vehicle sector also showed steady performance, with new force car manufacturers rising between 0.5% and 5% [4] - The healthcare sector followed the Hang Seng Index down by 2.0%, which is considered a normal correction after consecutive gains [4] Energy Sector Insights - The report maintains a recommendation to absorb power generation stocks, as summer electricity demand is favorable for the sector, but emphasizes the need to closely monitor coal price trends [6] - In June, coal inventory at major ports turned from a year-on-year decline to a slight increase, with coal prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline and remaining stable month-on-month [6] Renewable Energy Focus - The photovoltaic sector has seen weak product prices, but there is increased attention from the central government regarding industry competition, which may enhance investment sentiment in related stocks [7] - The nuclear power sector is gaining importance, with uranium prices reaching a new high of 78 USD per pound, driven by geopolitical events and renewed focus on nuclear energy development [8] Natural Gas Demand - Industrial demand for natural gas remains stable, with the manufacturing PMI in China reported at 49.7 in June, slightly above the previous year's figure [9] Stock Recommendations - Weisheng Holdings is highlighted as a potential Hong Kong Stock Connect target, benefiting from the global increase in electricity generation [10] - China National Nuclear Corporation is expected to benefit from rising uranium prices and has established a sales framework agreement for natural uranium [10] - Huaneng International is positioned to benefit from summer electricity demand, with a reported 8.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025 [11] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The healthcare sector outperformed the Hang Seng Index in June, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 8.4%, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains [13] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have introduced policies to support innovative drug development, which is expected to boost sales of high-priced innovative drugs [14] - Key stocks such as China Biologic Products and Innovent Biologics are recommended due to their strong growth prospects and recent positive developments in drug approvals and partnerships [15]

Global Market Dynamics - The US stock market showed strong performance with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, driven by better-than-expected non-farm payroll data [3][10] - European markets also rose, with the UK leading gains amid reduced political uncertainty [10] - The A-share market in China saw an increase, particularly in sectors related to Apple and innovative pharmaceuticals [17] Trade and Economic Agreements - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% tariff on goods subject to "transshipment" from China, complicating China's trade through Vietnam [6] - The agreement emphasizes the importance of origin certification, which may impact China's ability to utilize Vietnam for trade [6] - The report suggests that Chinese companies may accelerate overseas expansion, creating a new cycle of local production and consumption [6] Employment and Economic Indicators - The US added 256,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [9][10] - However, the report indicates underlying weaknesses in the job market, with a significant number of discouraged workers not counted in the labor force [9] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September due to ongoing economic concerns [9] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology stocks faced declines, while healthcare and materials sectors showed strength [12][13] - Macau's gaming industry is projected to recover, with a forecasted GGR growth of 7.6% in 2025, driven by increased market share for major operators [15] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the submarine cable sector, driven by AI and increased demand for deep-sea technology [20] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose following strong non-farm payroll data, with the yield curve flattening as the market adjusts to reduced rate cut expectations [29][32] - The report notes a significant increase in the US national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, alleviating immediate default risks [32] - Asian investment-grade bonds remained stable, with slight narrowing of spreads observed [32]