主要宏观指标表现良好，经济运行彰显强大韧性。上半年，国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.3%，就 业、物价和居民收入总体稳定。内需对经济增长的贡献率达68.8%，进出口规模站上20万亿元台阶。 "关于下一步经济工作，7月30日召开的中央政治局会议已作出全面部署，国家发展改革委将坚决抓好贯 彻落实。"周陈说。 新华社北京8月1日电 题：保持政策连续性、稳定性 常态化开展政策预研储备——国家发展改革委解读 当前经济形势 新华社记者魏玉坤、张晓洁 上半年中国经济运行态势如何？下半年宏观调控政策如何发力？针对当前经济形势和经济工作，国家发 展改革委1日举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委有关负责人进行了分析解读。 上半年我国经济稳中有进、好于预期 国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈表示，上半年我国经济稳中有进、好于预期，高质量发展取得 新成效。 周陈表示，一方面，持续发力、适时加力实施好已部署的各项政策举措，坚定不移实施扩大内需战略， 特别是继续推动稳就业稳经济若干举措陆续出台实施，保持政策连续性、稳定性，增强灵活性、预见 性，将外部压力转化为内生动力，稳住经济大盘。另一方面，加强经济监测预测预警，常态化开展政策 预研储备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the evolution of Zhejiang Electric Power in response to extreme weather challenges over the past 20 years, highlighting the transition from traditional disaster response to a more proactive, technology-driven approach to ensure grid reliability and resilience [2][4][19]. Group 1: Historical Context and Development - Twenty years ago, the phrase "Electricity is of utmost importance, and the grid is the lifeline" laid the foundation for Zhejiang Electric Power's mission [2]. - The company has consistently prioritized the understanding of electricity's significance and the protection of the grid, which connects households and supports economic activity [2][4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Zhejiang Electric Power has shifted from a passive disaster response to an active network strengthening strategy, focusing on building a "typhoon-resistant grid" [5]. - The company has implemented high-level disaster prevention measures, including the construction of the first self-healing island smart microgrid in Zhoushan, which can operate independently during outages [5][6]. - In Lishui, the reliability of power supply reached 99.99% in 2024, with average outage duration reduced by 37 minutes compared to the previous year [6]. Group 3: AI and Predictive Technologies - The company has developed an AI-based typhoon early warning module that improved prediction accuracy by approximately 30 kilometers, leading to a 69.58% power restoration rate within two hours during typhoon events [13][14]. - The establishment of a typhoon monitoring and early warning center has enhanced the ability to monitor weather conditions affecting the grid [15]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Monitoring Enhancements - Zhejiang Electric Power has installed various sensors and monitoring systems in substations to detect flooding and improve overall grid resilience [8]. - The company has created a robust and intelligent distribution network, enhancing the overall power supply capability and reliability [8][16]. Group 5: Future Directions - The company aims to further enhance the grid's resilience and self-healing capabilities through the integration of artificial intelligence and advanced monitoring systems [25][26]. - There is a focus on expanding the coordination of energy sources, loads, and storage to improve system flexibility and reliability in the face of uncertainties [27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 9.47 yuan [5][15]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 9.262 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.26%, despite a revenue decline of 5.70% to 112.032 billion yuan [1][2]. - The profit growth is attributed to effective cost control measures and the orderly expansion of renewable energy capacity, particularly in the wind and solar sectors [2][3]. - The company is focusing on a green and low-carbon transition, with a significant increase in wind and solar installed capacity, which now accounts for 29% of its total controllable power generation capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1120.32 billion yuan, down 5.70% year-on-year, while net profit reached 92.62 billion yuan, up 24.26% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to lower electricity generation and prices, but fuel cost reductions helped improve profitability [2][4]. Capacity and Generation - As of June 30, 2025, the company's controllable power generation capacity reached 152,992 MW, with wind power at 20,038 MW and solar power at 24,050 MW [3]. - The total electricity generated in H1 2025 was 205.683 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year, with coal power generation down 7.06% [3]. Long-term Profitability - The company's long-term profitability will increasingly depend on capacity revenue and auxiliary service market income, with significant contributions expected from flexible coal power unit modifications [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 2383.74 billion yuan, 2414.50 billion yuan, and 2416.61 billion yuan, with net profits of 123.89 billion yuan, 134.92 billion yuan, and 139.14 billion yuan, respectively [5][10]. Investment Outlook - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory for the company, driven by its leadership position in the power industry and the ongoing transition to renewable energy [15][16]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.3, 8.5, and 8.3, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][15].

编者按 光阴流转二十载，飞云江畔的殷殷话语，至今声声在耳。 二十年前，"电力是重中之重，电网是生命之网"的寄语，如同一颗种子，在浙江电力的热土上深深扎根。 二十年来，国网浙江电力始终将这份期望与使命扛在肩上、刻在心里。从迎战台风"海棠"的众志成城，到如今驾驭能源变革的从容自 信；从"用上电"到"用好电"的飞跃，背后都是对"重中之重"的深刻理解和对"生命之网"的坚定捍卫。这张网，连接着千家万户的温暖，也 承载着经济社会的脉动。 为全景展现这段非凡历程，"浙电e家"推出「担当重中之重 捍卫生命之网」主题专栏，本篇为系列第二篇《一张网，何以托起千钧 重？》。 2005年，台风"海棠"重创温州。承担着瑞安电网70%供电量的220千伏飞云变两台主变故障停运，造成瑞安大面积停电。人们在黑暗中 对光明翘首以盼，在闷热中对凉风望眼欲穿。痛苦的经历，让人们对"电力是重中之重、电网是生命之网"有了更加深刻的感受。 2025年，台风"丹娜丝"登陆温州，各方目光又一次落在温州这片屡屡遭受台风侵袭的土地。在全力抗击台风之时，我们是否心生忐 忑：如今的电网是否依然惧怕台风？能否托起人民赋予的千钧重担？ 7月6日，面对台风"丹娜丝"逼近， ...

宏观点评 20250801 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 从"十五五"规划看产业趋势 2025 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Summary] 中国的五年规划是国家宏观调控、引导经济社会发展的重要手段。进入"十 一五"之后，整体的规划目标从追求规模扩张向追求质量效益转型。从结 构上来看，由于发展目标从规模扩张转向高质量发展，五年规划的目标重 点已经由经济增长转型为公共事务治理规划。"十四五"期间关于人民生活 相关的目标占比明显增加，同时还增加了完全不同于之前五年规划的安全 保障的部分。 尽管针对经济总量目标的要求从定量向定性要求转变，但仍然需要保持适 度的经济增长，才能实现宏观稳定和经济结构的优化。为了实现 2035 年 经济总量或人均国内生产总值比 2020 年翻一番，"十五五"阶段所隐含的 我国经济总量或需至少保持年均 4.5%左右的经济增长水平，对于当期的 经济体量来说，经济增长的整体要求并不低。与之相对应的，设立各产业 的增长目标和碳排放目标，是下一阶段规划中需要落实的重点。 我们统计了 2024 年以来各部委关于"十五五"规划的相关课题，整体来 看，课题旨在破解制约高质量发展的关键瓶颈， ...

第二，电力现货市场即将实现基本全覆盖。现货市场有助于精准发现价格、实时反映和调节供需，既是 电力市场体系的关键环节，也是难点所在。王任飞透露，目前，25个省内市场均已开展现货交易，其中 6个实现正式运行，6个已实现连续结算运行，其他十余个省份也将在年内实现连续结算运行。"这对于 近段时间相关省份电力保供发挥了重要作用。" 第三，统一的电力市场基础规则体系基本建立。目前，已经形成以电力市场运行基本规则为基础，中长 期、现货、辅助服务交易规则为主干，市场注册、计量结算、信息披露为支撑的"1＋6"规则体系，未来 还会根据市场的发展不断丰富完善。 王任飞表示，下一步还将持续完善全国统一电力市场体系，进一步统一规则、破除壁垒、拓展功能、扩 大规模，为保障能源安全、低碳转型、经济增长提供更加有力的支撑。 中国经济网北京8月1日讯(记者王婉莹)近年来，电力市场建设取得重大进展。在今日召开的国家发展改 革委新闻发布会上，国家发展改革委体制改革综合司司长王任飞表示，今年上半年，我国跨省区交易电 量超过6700亿千瓦时，也就是说，电力市场每交易4度电，就有1度通过跨省区交易实现。 建设全国统一电力市场是深化电力体制改革的关键任务 ...

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the public utility sector, specifically highlighting Jingneng Power's regional advantages supporting electricity prices and the potential for coal price improvements [2] - Jingneng Power's business model includes coal-fired power generation, accelerated transition to renewable energy, cross-regional collaboration, and synchronized growth in heating services [2] Company Performance - As of the end of 2024, Jingneng Power's installed capacity reached 23.44 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, with coal-fired capacity at 21.39 million kilowatts [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in renewable energy capacity, reaching 2.05 million kilowatts, up 382.94% from the end of 2023 [3][4] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 35.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.54%, and a net profit of 1.723 billion yuan, up 95.52% [5] Electricity Generation and Pricing - In Q1 2025, Jingneng Power's revenue was 9.885 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.59%, with a net profit of 1.063 billion yuan, up 129.84% [6] - The company completed an electricity generation of 21.661 billion kilowatt-hours in Q1 2025, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in renewable energy generation [6] - The electricity pricing environment is favorable, particularly in regions with high energy consumption, which is expected to support revenue growth [6] Cost Structure and Coal Procurement - The majority of Jingneng Power's coal procurement is through long-term contracts, with 94% of total coal consumption sourced this way [7] - The average price of coal has decreased, with a reported decline of 11.6% year-on-year for 2024, indicating potential for further cost optimization [7] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts Jingneng Power's net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.754 billion, 4.005 billion, and 4.554 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 117.87%, 6.67%, and 13.73% [8] - The report assigns a "buy" rating for the company based on its favorable operational and market conditions [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International is suggested as a "buy" due to its high dividend yield and strong profit growth potential [1][5]. Core Insights - Huaneng International reported a 23.19% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, exceeding market expectations, despite a slight revenue decline of 5.7% [2][4]. - The company effectively controlled costs, with fuel costs decreasing by 14.4% year-on-year, contributing to the significant profit growth [3][4]. - The company has accelerated the integration of renewable energy, with a total controllable installed capacity of 153 GW, of which low-carbon clean energy accounts for 39% [5][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Huaneng International's revenue for H1 2025 was RMB 1120.32 billion, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, while net profit reached RMB 95.78 billion, reflecting a 23.19% increase [2][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for H1 was RMB 0.52, with a book value per share (BSP) of RMB 4.35 [2]. Cost Management - The total operating costs decreased by 9.8% to RMB 933 billion, with fuel costs down by 14.4% to RMB 583 billion, saving nearly RMB 10 billion [3][4]. - The company managed to reduce coal procurement costs by optimizing the structure of coal purchases and increasing the share of low-cost spot coal [3][4]. Energy Generation - The total electricity generated by Huaneng's domestic power plants was 2056.8 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, but there was a 1.4% increase in Q2 [4]. - Renewable energy generation saw significant growth, with wind power generation up 11.4% to 210 billion kWh and solar power generation up 49.3% to 122 billion kWh [4][5]. Renewable Energy Expansion - The company added over 6 GW of renewable energy capacity in H1, with a total controllable installed capacity of 152,992 MW, of which wind and solar accounted for significant portions [5][4]. - The share of low-carbon clean energy in the total installed capacity reached 39.12%, with expectations to complete an additional 10 GW of new energy installations by year-end [5][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1120.32 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 92.62 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3% year-on-year [1]. - The significant growth in Q2 net profit by 50% year-on-year was primarily driven by a decrease in fuel costs and an expansion in renewable energy capacity [1][2]. - The company’s coal power generation showed a marginal improvement in growth rate, with a notable decrease in costs, enhancing profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company’s domestic power plants generated 2056.83 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year, with coal power generation down by 7.06% [2]. - The total profit from coal power generation increased by 84% year-on-year, reaching 73.10 billion yuan [2]. Cost and Profitability - The average coal price for the first half of 2025 was 917.05 yuan/ton, down 9.23% year-on-year, which significantly buffered the impact of electricity prices on profitability [3]. - The profit per kWh from coal power generation improved to 0.046 yuan, an increase of 0.023 yuan year-on-year [3]. Renewable Energy Expansion - The company added 1.9 GW of wind power and 4.3 GW of solar power capacity in the first half of 2025, contributing to a total profit of 57.33 billion yuan from renewable energy, a year-on-year increase of 4.58 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 122.93 billion yuan, 130.82 billion yuan, and 139.13 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 0.89 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 9 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid development of China's unified electricity market system, showcasing significant growth in market transactions and the increasing role of renewable energy sources in the power supply [3][9]. Group 1: Market Growth and Structure - In 2024, the national market-based electricity trading volume exceeded 6.18 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 62.7% of total electricity consumption [5][6]. - The total installed power generation capacity surpassed 3.349 billion kilowatts, with an addition of 429 million kilowatts, primarily driven by solar and wind energy, which contributed 83.4% of the new capacity [5][6]. - The total electricity generation reached 10.09 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with wind and solar resources contributing 58.1% of the new generation [5][6]. Group 2: Market Participants and Transactions - The number of market participants rose to 816,000, an increase of 8.9%, including 35,000 power generation companies and 777,000 electricity users [6][12]. - The trading volume of renewable energy reached 956.9 billion kilowatt-hours, representing 52.3% of total renewable generation [6][12]. - Cross-provincial and cross-regional trading saw a significant increase, with long-term trading volume growing by 19.8% to 1.39 trillion kilowatt-hours [6][7]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The inter-provincial electricity spot market officially launched after two years of trial operation, facilitating over 88 billion kilowatt-hours of transactions, with 44% from clean energy [10][11]. - New market mechanisms and regional collaboration have emerged, enhancing resource allocation and supporting renewable energy consumption [10][11]. - The regulatory framework is evolving, with updates to the Energy Law and the Electricity Market Supervision Measures, ensuring a robust market environment [12].