Workflow
锂盐
icon
Search documents
碳酸锂产业链周度数据报告:陪跑“反内卷”或使锂价高估,关注后续产业资金入场动作-20250723
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 13:42
Group 1: Report Summary - The current market shows a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality". The anti - involution theme has a deeper negative impact on lithium carbonate, but recent rectification requirements in Jiangxi and Qinghai have tightened supply expectations, pushing up the bullish sentiment. The basis has widened, creating a certain delivery profit space for the LC2509 contract, and a further rise in futures prices may attract industrial hedging positions [3][4]. Group 2: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - The lithium carbonate balance sheet generally shows inventory accumulation. For example, on June 30, 2025, the supply was 78,090 tons, demand was 93,815 tons, imports were 22,500 tons, exports were 700 tons, and inventory change was 6,075 tons [6][8]. 2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - Data on the lithium hydroxide balance sheet is presented, including supply, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, and cumulative balances. For instance, on June 30, 2025, supply was 24,450 tons, demand was 21,825 tons, imports were 800 tons, exports were 4,700 tons, and inventory change was - 1,275 tons [9][11]. Group 3: Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.1 Lithium Spodumene Imports - Import volume and average import price data for lithium concentrate from different countries are provided. In June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil. The average import price was $639 per ton [13][17]. 3.2 Chinese Lithium Mines - Information on domestic lithium ore production, market prices, and weekly inventory is given, including data on sample lithium mica mines and lithium pyroxene mines [18][20]. Group 4: Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented, along with their price differences and futures prices and basis. For example, on July 22, 2025, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 69,000 yuan per ton [22][26]. 4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, high - grade mica) are provided. On July 22, 2025, the production cost of lithium spodumene - produced lithium carbonate was 49,455 yuan per ton, with a profit of 18,495 yuan per ton [34][38]. 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - Weekly and monthly production data of lithium carbonate are given, including production by grade (battery - grade and industrial - grade) and raw material (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling). In June 2025, battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons [39][49]. 4.4 Operating Rate - The operating rate of the concentrate end is continuously increasing, and data on the operating rates of lithium salt (carbonate and hydroxide) and by raw material are provided [50][54]. 4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Imports - Import volume data of lithium carbonate from different countries are provided, including Argentina and Chile. In May 2025, the total import volume was 21,146 tons [55][59]. 4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Inventory data of lithium carbonate at downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and futures registered warehouse receipt quantity are presented [60][65]. Group 5: Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Production and operating rate data of lithium iron phosphate are provided. In June 2025, the production was 285,400 tons, and the operating rate was 57% [67][71]. 5.2 Ternary Materials - Production, operating rate, and import - export volume data of ternary materials are given. In June 2025, the production was 64,615 tons [73][82]. 5.3 Ternary Material Import - Export Volume - Import, export, and net import volume data of ternary materials are presented. In May 2025, the net import was - 4,874 tons [78][82]. 5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production data of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles, battery production, and dealer inventory warning index are provided. In June 2025, the dealer inventory warning index was 56.6 [83][87]. 5.5 Lithium Battery Import - Export Volume - Import, export, net export volume, and net export growth rate data of lithium - ion batteries are presented. In March 2025, the net export was 280.2 million units, with a growth rate of 28.17% [88][91].
方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250723
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The sentiment of lithium resource supply shortage has resurfaced, resonating with the current "anti - involution" market. The optimistic commodity atmosphere supports the strong performance of lithium salt spot and futures prices. For industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, the "anti - involution" sentiment continues to ferment, and the market has stronger expectations for future supply - side reforms, production control, and reduction. Although the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are still weak, the main logic of the market operation lies in the "strong expectations" brought by policies [4][5][6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For the lithium carbonate 09 contract, it is expected to operate in a volatile and relatively strong manner. The support level is 65,000 - 66,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 83,000. It is recommended to seize the opportunity for selling hedging, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - level stockpiling or buying hedging. For the industrial silicon 09 contract, with the high - rising "anti - involution" sentiment, it may maintain an upward trend in the short term. The support level is 8,900 - 9,000, and the pressure level is 9,900 - 10,000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach. For the polycrystalline silicon 08 contract, with the high - rising "anti - involution" sentiment, it may maintain an upward trend in the short term. The support level is 43,000 - 44,000, and the pressure level is 50,000 - 51,000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [15] 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,880, with a daily increase of 2.24%, a trading volume of 1,118,226, an open interest of 411,638, an open - interest increase of 30,453, and 10,089 warehouse receipts. The closing price of industrial silicon is 9,655, with a daily increase of 4.27%, a trading volume of 1,234,403, an open interest of 380,961, an open - interest decrease of 2,335, and 50,053 warehouse receipts. The closing price of polycrystalline silicon is 49,105, with a daily increase of 8.99%, a trading volume of 757,482, an open interest of 192,179, and 2,780 warehouse receipts [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: On Tuesday, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,877 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,136 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,100 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,100 yuan/ton. Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,115 tons, an increase of 302 tons from the previous week. The full - caliber sample inventory was 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons from the previous week, hitting a new historical high. The weekly apparent demand was 17,288 tons, reaching a high for the year, and the inventory - available days were 57.7 days [4] - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, but only relevant figure references are given, such as the capacity of lithium iron phosphate, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate devices, the monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and the monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate [26][28] 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The sentiment of "anti - involution" to manage the disorderly low - price competition in the market continues to ferment. The cost of industrial silicon has increased due to the significant rise in coal prices. In June, China's industrial silicon exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, reaching the highest monthly level since May 2024. Although the fundamentals are still weak, the market is expected to operate in a volatile and relatively strong manner [6] - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, only relevant figure references are given, such as the monthly output of Chinese organic silicon DMC and the operating rate of aluminum alloys [37] 3.2.3 Polycrystalline Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The sentiment of "anti - involution" to manage the disorderly low - price competition in the market continues to ferment. Although the supply - demand situation has not changed much and the oversupply situation persists, last week's inventory decreased because the rise in silicon material prices boosted the downstream's enthusiasm for picking up goods, and enterprises had a large volume of shipments for previous orders [8][9] - **Downstream Situation**: No specific data provided, only relevant figure references are given, such as the monthly output of silicon wafers and the monthly output of Chinese photovoltaic modules [46]
A股盘前市场要闻速递(2025-07-22)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-22 01:49
Group 1 - The State Council of China has announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will take effect on September 15, 2025, requiring rental companies to provide accurate property information and establish rental archives [1] - The regulations mandate local governments to create rent monitoring mechanisms and publish rental level information regularly [1] - The implementation of these regulations aims to enhance the management and transparency of the housing rental market [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have released the "Implementation Rules for Cross-Border Asset Management Pilot Business" in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing foreign investors to invest in various financial products [1] - This pilot program is expected to enrich the supply of cross-border financial products and attract asset management institutions to Hainan [1] - The rules cover aspects such as pilot institution conditions, product range, investor protection, and monitoring [1] Group 3 - Guangfa Bank is under self-regulatory investigation by the trading association for allegedly guiding prices during a bond issuance process [2] - The association aims to strengthen the regulation of issuers and impose penalties on those found violating rules [2] Group 4 - Dongfang Precision has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Leju Robotics to focus on humanoid robots, enhancing production and market expansion [3] - The partnership will leverage Dongfang Precision's manufacturing capabilities and Leju Robotics' service solutions to explore applications in various sectors [3] Group 5 - Dongfang Caifu announced a share transfer price of 21.66 yuan per share, representing a 7.24% discount from the closing price, with full subscription from institutional investors [4] - The transfer will not lead to a change in company control or governance structure [4] Group 6 - BYD plans a significant equity distribution for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 39.74 yuan per 10 shares and a stock split [5] - The record date for A-share shareholders is set for July 28, 2025 [5] Group 7 - Jiangte Electric plans a 26-day equipment maintenance shutdown for its lithium salt production line, which will not affect existing sales contracts [6] - Youfang Technology intends to sign a server procurement contract worth up to 4 billion yuan to support its cloud computing services [6] Group 8 - Haitan Ruisheng expects a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in AI technology applications [7] - The projected net profit range is between 294.40 million and 441.60 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 607% to 961% [7] Group 9 - ST Xifa plans to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Lhasa Beer from Carlsberg, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [8] - The company is currently in a pre-restructuring phase, facing potential bankruptcy risks [8] Group 10 - Nanjing Julong clarified that it has no collaboration with the technology company involved in a high-profile procurement deal [9] - The company's revenue from its composite materials subsidiary is relatively small, accounting for about 0.3 billion yuan [9] Group 11 - Changchuan Technology reported a 98.73% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, exceeding its performance forecast [10] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.167 billion yuan, marking a 41.80% year-on-year growth [10] Group 12 - Gaode Infrared signed contracts worth 685 million yuan for foreign trade products, which will positively impact future operating performance [11] - The contracts represent 25.59% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [11] Group 13 - Li Pingpuzi is involved in a legal dispute regarding the transfer of shares, with a claim amounting to 996 million yuan [12] - The outcome of the case may affect the control transfer of the company [12] Group 14 - Fuxin Technology's MicroTEC products for high-speed optical modules have passed validation and are now in bulk supply [13] - These products currently contribute a small percentage to the company's overall revenue [13]
现货成交一般,碳酸锂受近月交割博弈影响
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 03:41
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-17 现货成交一般,碳酸锂受近月交割博弈影响 市场分析 2025年7月16日,碳酸锂主力合约2509开于67300元/吨,收于66420元/吨,当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当 日成交量为478114手,持仓量为340618手,较前一交易日减少1528手,根据SMM现货报价,目前期货升水电碳1470 元/吨。所有合约总持仓619618手,较前一交易日减少3318手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少354227手,成 交量减少,整体投机度为0.92 。当日碳酸锂仓单10655手,较上个交易日减少548手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,2025年7月16日电池级碳酸锂报价6.39-6.6万元/吨,较前一交易日上涨0.005万元/吨, 工业级碳酸锂报价6.285-6.385万元/吨,较前一交易日上涨0.005万元/吨。 库存方面:根据SMM最新统计数据,现货库存为14.08 万吨,其中冶炼厂库存为5.86 万吨,下游库存为4.08 万吨, 其他库存为4.14 万吨。据SMM数据,受长协订单覆盖及客供比例较高等因素影响,下游企业对现行市场价格接受 度较低,采购需求持续 ...
永杉锂业20250527
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The company, originally known as Jixiang Co., was established in 2003 and focuses on the production, processing, and sales of wood blocks and wood fuel materials. In January 2022, the company fully acquired Hunan Yongshan, expanding its business to include lithium salt products, thus forming a dual business model in the wood and lithium industries [1] Industry Insights - Hunan Yongshan specializes in the production, research, and sales of high-quality lithium salts, which are widely used in the new energy electric vehicle market, consumer electronics, industrial applications, and energy storage sectors. The company aims to become a global leader in high-quality lithium supply [1] - The lithium salt business has seen significant growth, with the first phase of production capacity reaching 25,000 tons in June 2022, coinciding with an industry upcycle. The second phase is expected to be operational by Q1 2025, bringing total capacity to 45,000 tons [2] Financial Performance - In 2022, the company achieved its highest annual revenue and net profit since its inception, providing shareholders with the largest cash dividend since its IPO. However, in the first half of 2023, the company faced a dramatic decline in prices for lithium and wood products, with prices dropping by over 80% for lithium products, leading to a net profit loss of 337 million [3][4] - Despite the challenges, the company maintained a gross margin of 13% and reported a revenue of 7.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [3][4] Strategic Adjustments - The management is adjusting its operational strategies in response to the ongoing downturn in the lithium industry, focusing on risk management and preparing for potential recovery phases [5] - The company is committed to enhancing its lithium salt business as its core focus, addressing supply chain issues, and improving capacity utilization [6] Research and Development - The company is actively optimizing its production lines and product structures to adapt to market demand fluctuations, particularly in the context of rapid advancements in battery technology, including solid-state batteries [7] Supply Chain Strategy - The company is pursuing a global and diversified procurement strategy for raw materials to ensure a stable supply chain, which includes long-term contracts for lithium ore procurement [8] Customer Engagement - The company emphasizes a customer-centric approach, focusing on deep partnerships with major clients in the lithium battery sector, including companies like Tsinghua Tongfang and others [9] Financial Strategy - The company plans to raise 500 million RMB through a specific stock issuance to enhance liquidity and support ongoing operations, particularly in light of the upcoming production phases [10][12] Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the lithium industry, driven by the growth of the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, despite current price pressures [11] Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Yongrong Group, continues to support the company's development, which is expected to stabilize the company's control and enhance market confidence [13] Future Plans - The company aims to maintain strategic definitions and long-term goals, focusing on resource optimization and operational efficiency to navigate through industry challenges and prepare for future growth [14]
新能源及有色金属日报:近月仓单博弈较大,碳酸锂盘面振幅加剧-20250716
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is significant, and there is some speculation in the near - month contracts. After the futures market has been at a premium to the spot market for a certain period, the willingness to register warehouse receipts may increase. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see for near - month contracts and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading, and choose to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 66,140 yuan/ton and closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 764,028 lots, and the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 622,936 lots, a decrease of 12,117 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 303,785 lots from the previous day to 926,362 lots, with an overall speculation degree of 1.49. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,203 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,800 - 66,000 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,800 - 63,800 yuan/ton, also a 250 - yuan increase. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of current market prices due to factors such as long - term contract coverage and high customer - supplied ratios, and procurement demand remains weak. Although upstream lithium salt enterprises have made tentative price adjustments, transactions are mainly concentrated among traders [1]. Strategy - Wait and see for near - month contracts in the short term and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2][4].
锦州永杉锂业股份有限公司2025年半年度业绩预亏公告
Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinjou Yongshan Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., anticipates a significant net loss for the first half of 2025, primarily due to declining lithium salt prices and market conditions [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between -172.5 million RMB and -116 million RMB for the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The forecasted net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -196 million RMB and -132 million RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the company reported a total profit of 95.96 million RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 66.82 million RMB [5]. - The net profit, after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was -8.30 million RMB [5]. Group 3: Reasons for Expected Loss - The lithium salt market continues to experience an oversupply, leading to further price declines, which adversely affects the company's operations despite efforts to increase production and optimize costs [7]. - The company faces reduced gross margins and increased inventory impairment risks in its lithium salt segment [7]. Group 4: Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - The expected non-recurring gains and losses for the period are estimated to be between 16 million RMB and 23.5 million RMB, primarily due to benefits from VAT policies and other government subsidies [8]. Group 5: Accounting and Other Influences - The accounting treatment is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's performance forecast [9]. - There are no other significant factors that could materially affect the performance forecast [9].
浙江康隆达特种防护科技股份有限公司2025年半年度业绩预盈公告
Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Kanglongda Special Protective Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a turnaround in net profit for the first half of 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 85 million to 120 million yuan, compared to a loss in the same period last year [2][3]. Performance Forecast - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 85 million and 120 million yuan, indicating a significant improvement from the previous year's loss [3]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 10 million and 45 million yuan [3]. Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was -44,955,864.91 yuan, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of -50,129,607.57 yuan [5]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -24,007,994.14 yuan, and the earnings per share were -0.31 yuan [5]. Reasons for Profit Turnaround - The hand protection product business has benefited from strategic advantages in the Vietnam base, which has improved production and sales rates, contributing significantly compared to the previous year [5]. - The lithium salt product business continues to face challenges due to low market prices and demand, leading to ongoing inventory impairment provisions [5]. - The transfer of the subsidiary Global Glove and Safety Manufacturing, Inc. to Globus Americas Holdings, LLC has generated substantial investment income [7]. Non-Operating Gains and Losses - The company has a significant volume of foreign exchange settlement business primarily in USD, and previous losses from foreign exchange derivative transactions have been settled, with no major impact on current performance [7].
永杉锂业:预计上半年净亏损1.16亿元-1.73亿元
news flash· 2025-07-14 08:50
智通财经7月14日电,永杉锂业(603399.SH)公告称,预计2025年上半年归属于母公司所有者的净亏损 1.73亿元至1.16亿元。上年同期为盈利6,681.62万元,本期同比转亏。业绩变动主要原因是锂盐市场持续 供大于求,产品价格进一步下降,尽管公司通过提高产量、降本增效等方式降低风险,但难以抵消价格 下滑带来的不利影响,导致锂盐板块业务亏损。 永杉锂业:预计上半年净亏损1.16亿元-1.73亿元 ...
九岭锂业再闯IPO:锂价过山车下营收、净利均腰斩,强敌环伺如何靠一座锂矿撑业绩
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 06:09
(图片来源:网络) 出品|搜狐财经 作者|冯圆圆 日前,锂云母四小龙之一的九岭锂业,向上交所递交了上市申请。 近年来,伴随着新能源行业的周期性波动,九岭锂业的业绩犹如一面镜子,折射出原材料碳酸锂玩家在不同时间段的生存状态。 随着碳酸锂价格的起伏,九岭锂业的业绩也如同"过山车"般的起起伏伏。 如今,九岭锂业的业绩较巅峰时已然砍半,旗下矿产资源"紧张",在强敌环伺的锂盐矿行业,九岭锂业未来扩张成长之路或困难重重。 此次,九岭锂业计划募资31.35亿,拟用于新能源材料生产项目及研发中心综合大楼建设项目。 "暴涨暴跌"的业绩 日前,江西九岭锂业股份有限公司(下称"九岭锂业")再次向主板发起冲击。 九岭锂业成立于2011年,曾经和江西特种电机股份有限公司(下称"江特电机")、江西南氏锂电新材料有限公司、永兴特种材料科技股份有限公司(下 称"永兴材料")并称为锂云母"四小龙",拥有全球首条万吨级锂云母提锂产线,实力不容小觑。 早期,锂盐生产多靠锂辉石,天齐锂业、赣锋锂业便是代表。但锂辉石多分布在国外,国内储量有限,存在"卡脖子"风险。因此盐湖提锂、锂云母提锂这两 条国产替代路线应运而生。 公开资料显示,锂云母虽氧化锂含量 ...