每经记者｜朱成祥 每经编辑｜魏官红 丨 2025年9月29日 星期一 丨 NO.1 盐湖股份：4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目投料试车 点评：盐湖股份4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目投料试车，标志着中国盐湖提锂技术实现工业化突破。短 期关注产能爬坡进度及锂价反弹节奏；长期来看，盐湖股份依托资源垄断+成本优势，有望成为全球锂 盐市场定价权争夺者。不过，也需要注意水资源对盐湖提锂的限制。 NO.2 博迁新材：签订合作协议，估算销售镍粉产品43亿元至50亿元 9月28日，盐湖股份公告称，公司4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目已基本建成，关键装置吸附提锂装置试 车产出合格液，纳滤反渗透系统完成膜安装及水联动，沉锂及公辅工程完成核心设备单机试车，正式进 入投料试车阶段并产出合格的电池级碳酸锂产品。项目投料试车将提升公司锂盐产能规模，增强市场竞 争力、盈利能力和抗风险能力。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自 担。 NO.3 智光电气：拟购买控股子公司智光储能股权，股票停牌 9月28日，智光电气公告称，公司正在筹划以发行股份及支付现金的方式购买控股子公司智光储能的全 部或部分少数股权，同时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement highlights the commencement of trial production for a 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project by Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd, which is part of the company's strategic plan to expand lithium production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Group 1: Project Development - The 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project has been substantially completed, with key components such as the lithium extraction device successfully producing qualified liquid [1]. - The nanofiltration and reverse osmosis systems have completed membrane installation and water linkage, while the lithium sedimentation and auxiliary engineering have finished core equipment single-machine testing [1]. - The project has officially entered the trial production phase, yielding qualified battery-grade lithium carbonate products [1]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The trial production of the integrated lithium salt project is expected to enhance the company's lithium salt production capacity, thereby improving market competitiveness, profitability, and risk resistance [1]. - This initiative is positioned as a core support for the high-quality development of the ecological salt lake industry and is anticipated to inject strong momentum into the sustainable development of salt lakes [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. The main contract 2511 closed at 72,880 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46% and a position volume of 248,640 tons. Spot prices changed little, and spot trading was average. When futures prices declined, it stimulated some point-price procurement demand [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly to 20,516 tons. Output from various sources such as spodumene, mica, salt lakes, and recycling all showed different degrees of change [2]. - On the consumption side, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% month-on-month, while that of ternary materials, cobalt acid lithium, and manganese acid lithium increased. Downstream production was expected to increase, and the demand in the terminal power battery and energy storage markets supported the demand for lithium salts, but the actual replenishment was lower than expected [3]. - In terms of inventory, the total inventory decreased by 705 tons compared to last week. Inventory continued to transfer, with an increase in downstream replenishment inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [3]. - In terms of profit, lithium ore prices fluctuated slightly, and overseas mines were reluctant to lower prices. Enterprises using externally purchased raw materials relied on futures hedging to balance profits and losses. Enterprises with their own ore sources and salt lake lithium extraction had significant cost advantages and relatively stable profit margins [3]. - The output of lithium hydroxide increased slightly this week. Due to high upstream spodumene prices and production line maintenance, the overall supply capacity of the lithium hydroxide market remained tight [4]. Strategy - The futures market maintained a volatile trend in the short term. There was some support from consumption, and the pre - National Day replenishment demand still existed. Although the disturbance in the ore sector weakened, it did not end completely. If mines resumed production and consumption weakened in the future, the market might be weak [5]. - For unilateral operations, short - term range trading was recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be considered. There were no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is advancing its lithium strategy by completing a 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project, enhancing its market competitiveness and supporting sustainable development in the ecological salt lake industry [1] Group 1: Project Development - The 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project has been substantially completed, with key devices such as the lithium adsorption device successfully trialed [1] - The nanofiltration reverse osmosis system has completed membrane installation and water linkage, indicating progress in the project's operational readiness [1] - Core equipment for lithium precipitation and auxiliary engineering has undergone individual trial runs, marking the project’s transition to the material trial production phase [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The trial production of the 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project is expected to significantly increase the company's lithium salt production capacity [1] - This enhancement in production capacity is anticipated to improve the company's market competitiveness, profitability, and risk resistance [1] - The project is positioned as a core support for the high-quality development of the ecological salt lake industry, injecting strong momentum into sustainable development efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through capital increase in its subsidiary Ganfeng Lithium Battery to enhance its financial strength and support its lithium ecosystem strategy [1][2] Group 1: Company Actions - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary, Ganfeng Lithium Battery, intends to introduce investors for a capital increase, with a price set at 3 yuan per 1 yuan of registered capital [1] - The capital increase will not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring, thus not requiring shareholder approval [1] - The company aims to improve Ganfeng Lithium Battery's financial strength and reduce its debt ratio, which stood at 68.02% as of June 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of 8.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.65%, with a net loss of 531 million yuan [2] - The company's non-recurring net profit loss expanded to 913 million yuan due to market fluctuations in lithium products [2] - Despite the challenges, the company has seen a recovery in lithium carbonate prices since June, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - Ganfeng Lithium's battery segment has been expanding, with stable supply partnerships established with leading industry players [2] - The company has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells, meeting the growing demand in the energy storage market [2] - Since July, Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has increased by over 56%, with a closing price of 55.73 yuan per share and a total market capitalization of 114.6 billion yuan as of September 25 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand, along with the continuous reduction of lithium carbonate social inventory, support the futures price. However, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price. Attention should be paid to whether the market will take advantage of the supply - side issue again in the context of demand improvement and the reported environmental problems in Qinghai salt lakes [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (2510, 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602) are 72,680 yuan/ton (-0.66%), 72,880 yuan/ton (-0.79%), 72,900 yuan/ton (-0.87%), 72,860 yuan/ton (-0.79%), and 72,600 yuan/ton (-1.04%) respectively [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 856 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1875 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6080 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7210 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,710 yuan/ton; the average prices of ternary materials 811 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 147,550 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), 120,450 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), and 125,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 970 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton; the price spreads between the near - month and the first - continuous contract, and the near - month and the second - continuous contract are - 200 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) and - 220 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons, down 981 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons, down 1757 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons, up 1216 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons, down 440 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,749 tons, up 300 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,297 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2,519 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly given, with a profit of - 7,944 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Demand side: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The continuous reduction of lithium carbonate social inventory supports the futures price [3]. - Supply side: The overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]. - Market speculation: Attention should be paid to whether the market will hype supply - side issues again due to demand improvement and environmental problems in Qinghai salt lakes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,850 yuan/ton, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,600 yuan/ton, and the difference between them is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Futures contract closing prices and their changes: Lithium carbonate 2605 at 73,780 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change; 2606 at 73,540 yuan/ton with a - 0.86% change; 2607 at 73,440 yuan/ton with a - 0.73% change; 2608 at 73,620 yuan/ton with a - 0.65% change; 2609 at 73,500 yuan/ton with a - 0.7% change [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 860 yuan/ton [1]. - Lithium mica prices vary by grade: 1165 yuan/ton for (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), 1900 yuan/ton for (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) [2]. - Phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone prices also vary by grade: 6130 yuan/ton for (Li20: 6% - 7%), 7265 yuan/ton for (Li20: 7% - 8%) [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,710 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 147,450 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan change; 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,350 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan change; 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 125,000 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan change [2]. Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons with a - 981 - ton change; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons with a - 1757 - ton change; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons with a 1216 - ton change; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons with a - 440 - ton change; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,449 tons with a 540 - ton change [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,536 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 2759 yuan/ton [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 79,306 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 8521 yuan/ton [3]. Environmental Issue - Qinghai Chaidamu Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. was reported for illegally burying a large amount of industrial hazardous waste, and a national special rectification action on illegal dumping and disposal of solid waste has been launched [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand, with the intensity of demand determining the height of the market. News and international macro factors are disturbing the market, and upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity for futures buying and selling hedging according to their risk management needs [5]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. The high - inventory pressure still exists, and the weakening of the downstream polysilicon market may lead to negative impacts. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices [6]. - The previous rise of polysilicon was mainly supported by policy expectations, but the policies and production cuts have not been implemented. The supply - demand pattern has deteriorated due to the increasing supply pressure. The new energy consumption standard may improve the future supply - demand pattern, and the market is easily affected by news [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is driven by news, with wide - range fluctuations. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - price purchases. The support level is 68000 - 70000, and the pressure level is 80000 - 82000 [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak reality restricts the upward height of the market. There is limited upward space, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. The support level is 8200 - 8300, and the pressure level is 9200 - 9300 [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have not been fulfilled, and concerns about weak demand are increasing. The market is oscillating weakly, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. The support level is 48000 - 49000, and the pressure level is 53000 - 54000 [15]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are no good arbitrage opportunities recently [15]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 73420 | - 0.73% | 396645 | 271624 | - 9640 | 38909 | | Industrial Silicon | 8950 | - 3.82% | 586687 | 285490 | - 25607 | 49802 | | Polysilicon | 50990 | - 3.63% | 253135 | 123917 | 8068 | 7870 | [15] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached a record high of 20363 tons. All lithium extraction processes showed an increase in production. The total inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137531 tons, but still remained at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises continued to transfer downstream, and the downstream inventory reached a new high [5]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts was 21344 tons, remaining at a recent high. The available days of full - caliber sample inventory were basically the same as last week [5]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. There are rumors of production cuts in the southwest region, but the authenticity needs to be verified [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream polysilicon market has shown weakness recently, and there is a possibility of negative impacts spreading upwards [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The previous rise was based on policy expectations, but these policies and production cuts have not been implemented. The supply pressure has increased, and the supply - demand pattern has deteriorated [8]. - **Downstream Situation**: The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment, and the new energy consumption standard may improve the future supply - demand pattern. The market is easily influenced by rumors [9].

Summary of Yahua Group Conference Call Company Overview - Yahua Group operates primarily in two sectors: lithium salt and civil explosives [4][7] - The company has rapidly expanded its civil explosives business through mergers and acquisitions, establishing Yahua Civil Explosives Group in 2023 [2][4] Lithium Salt Business - Yahua Group's lithium salt business is affected by lithium price fluctuations, but the company aims to increase raw material self-sufficiency to over 50% and expand production capacity to 130,000 tons [2][5] - The company has secured high-quality resource supply rights both domestically and internationally, including a 28% stake in the Li Jiagou lithium mine and full control of the Kamativi lithium mine [2][12] - Current lithium salt production capacity is approximately 99,000 tons, with plans to expand to 130,000-170,000 tons [14] - Long-term supply agreements have been signed with major clients such as Tesla and CATL, enhancing the company's integrated supply chain advantage [14] Financial Projections - Net profit forecasts for Yahua Group are 600 million yuan in 2025, 1 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.25 billion yuan in 2027 [2][8] - The company has an equity incentive plan linked to net profit and sales growth, with specific performance targets for management [8][11] Market Trends - The lithium industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices rebounding from a low of approximately 60,000 yuan [9][10] - Supply-demand dynamics are expected to reverse in 2026-2027, potentially benefiting Yahua Group [10] Civil Explosives Business - The civil explosives industry is experiencing increased concentration, with a shift towards electronic detonators, which Yahua Group is well-positioned to benefit from due to its scale and government support [3][15] - The company has expanded its civil explosives business through acquisitions, including the purchase of Mianyang Jiuwan and other companies [7][17] - Yahua Group's electronic detonator capacity has ranked first in the industry for four consecutive years [18] Regional Development and Strategic Advantages - Yahua Group is leveraging its geographical advantages in the western regions of China, particularly in infrastructure projects like the Sichuan-Tibet Railway [19][20] - The company has developed explosives suitable for high-altitude and low-temperature conditions, enhancing its competitive edge in these regions [19] Valuation and Growth Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 20% annually from 2025 to 2027 in its civil explosives business, with a gross margin of 35% [21] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 580 million yuan, 970 million yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22, 13, and 10 [22]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On September 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not significant. The expected supply contraction has weakened, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mining to submit a reserve report. The trading strategy is to recommend waiting and seeing. [1] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On September 22, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with September 19, with decreases of 560, 540, 560, and 560 respectively. The trading volume was 396,645 lots (+26,286), and the open interest was 271,624 lots (-9,640). [1] Spot Market - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton compared with September 19. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 80 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,909 tons (-575), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137,531 tons (-981). [1] Import Data - In August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,469.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.79% and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. Chile was the largest import source, and Argentina was the second - largest. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. On the demand side, last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, in August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September. [1]