Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation is facing significant cash flow challenges despite maintaining a long-standing dividend payout, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend growth trajectory [2][5]. Dividend Payment Overview - Nucor recently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share, reflecting a 1.82% increase from the previous quarter's $0.55 [3]. - For the full year 2025, the total dividend distribution was $2.21 per share, a modest increase of 1.84% from $2.17 in 2024, indicating a slowdown compared to the 4.83% growth seen between 2023 and 2024 [3]. Cash Flow Analysis - In fiscal 2025, Nucor generated $3.23 billion in operating cash flow, while capital expenditures reached $3.42 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of $188 million, marking the first instance of negative free cash flow in the available dataset [5][9]. - This represents a significant decline from fiscal 2023, where Nucor produced $4.90 billion in free cash flow, and operating cash flow has decreased by 68% from its peak of $10.07 billion in fiscal 2022 [6][9]. Dividend Sustainability Concerns - Despite the cash flow issues, Nucor paid out $512 million in dividends in 2025, necessitating the use of its balance sheet to support both dividend payments and capital expenditures [7][9]. - The dividend payout now accounts for 25.1% of net income, a sharp increase from just 5.3% during the profitable fiscal year 2022 [7]. Financial Performance - Nucor's net income fell to $2.04 billion in fiscal 2025, a decline of 12.1% from 2024 and a staggering 75% drop from $8.08 billion in fiscal 2022 [14].

Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corporation is facing significant challenges with negative free cash flow and declining net income, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend despite a strong balance sheet and a long history of dividend payments [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nucor generated negative free cash flow of $188 million in 2025, marking the first time in its history that it failed to produce positive free cash flow [1]. - The company paid out $512 million in dividends during 2025, consuming 25.1% of net income, a sharp increase from 5.3% in 2022 [1]. - Net income fell 75% to $2.04 billion in 2025, down from $8.08 billion in 2022, with operating cash flow dropping 68% from its peak [1][2]. Dividend Analysis - The latest quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share represents a modest 1.82% increase from the previous quarter, with a full-year dividend of $2.21 per share, up just 1.84% from 2024 [1]. - The current dividend yield is 1.15%, significantly below the S&P 500 average, making it less attractive for income-focused investors [1][2]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $3.23 billion, while capital expenditures were $3.42 billion, leading to negative free cash flow [1]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with $2.70 billion in cash and a $2.25 billion undrawn credit facility, providing a cushion to support dividend payments [1][2]. Market Valuation - Nucor's stock is priced at 26 times trailing earnings and 17 times forward earnings, indicating that the market is betting on future earnings growth rather than current dividend income [2]. - The stock has appreciated 46.62% over the past year, driven by expectations of a cyclical recovery in the steel industry [2]. Economic Context - U.S. GDP growth accelerated to 4.4% in Q3 2025, which could support industrial demand and improve Nucor's cash generation in 2026 [2]. - Management is optimistic about increased earnings in Q1 2026, driven by higher volumes and prices, which could restore positive cash flow [2]. Insider Activity - Recent insider transactions show a concerning trend, with 15 disposals compared to only 2 acquisitions, indicating a lack of confidence from management [1]. - Notable sales include CEO Leon Topalian and CFO Stephen Laxton disposing of shares, which raises questions about their outlook on the company's performance [1].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 decreased by 1.4% and the DOW by 1.1%, marking the worst week of 2026, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ down 2.3% due to policy chaos from the administration [1] - The market is experiencing volatility as the administration's tariff policies shift, impacting investor sentiment and market stability [1][11] Tariff Policy Changes - The Trump administration is considering rolling back steel and aluminum tariffs due to inflation concerns, which have moderated to 2.4% in January after a year of price fluctuations caused by these tariffs [2][3] - Shares of United States Steel Corp (X) fell by 3.4% and Alcoa (AA) by 2.8% in pre-market trading as renewed foreign competition becomes a possibility [2] Deregulation Efforts - The administration repealed the EPA's "Endangerment Finding," which was crucial for regulating greenhouse gases, benefiting the traditional energy sector but creating confusion for the auto industry [6][7] - Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) saw modest gains of 0.5% and 0.2% respectively, but the long-term implications of this deregulation remain uncertain as global markets move towards electric vehicles [6][8] Trade Deals and Global Relations - Recent trade announcements include a new framework with India, tariff reductions with Taiwan, and a deal with the U.K., but market reactions have been muted due to skepticism about the effectiveness of these frameworks [9][10] - The iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF saw a small increase of 0.9%, but concerns about a potential visit to China by the President may limit market optimism [10] Conclusion on Market Sentiment - The major indices are down, with the S&P 500 experiencing a 2.1% decline for the week, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the administration's policy changes [11] - Investors are left questioning the logic behind rolling back tariffs to combat inflation that the tariffs themselves helped create, highlighting the unpredictable nature of current market conditions [12]

（来源：Mysteel我的不锈钢网） 来源：Mysteel我的不锈钢网 不锈钢行情一览 | 无锡市场不锈钢价格早报 | | | | 2026年2月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 14日 | | | | | 热门活动 | | | | | | 固本拓瓣 糖圈共生 | | | | | | 26 126 不锈钢产业 快 需 交流大会 | | | | | | 卷板价格(09:10) | (单位:元/吨) | | | | | 品名 材质 | | 规格 | 钢厂 | 价格(基价) | | | | | 张浦 | 14900 - | | 四尺切边 | | | 太钢天管 | 14400 - | | 五尺切边 | | | 太钢 | 15000 - | | 五尺毛边 | | | 東金 | 14400 - | | | | | 德龙 | 13750 - | | | | | 東金 | 14300 - | | 304 | | | 北港新材料 | 13750 - | | | | | 德龙 | 13750 - | | 四尺毛边 | | | 北材 | 13850 - | | | | | 宏旺 | 13 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all experienced declines for the week, marking their largest weekly losses since November, with the S&P 500 falling 1.39%, Nasdaq declining 2.1%, and Dow decreasing 1.23% [6][12] - Heavyweight technology and communications services stocks ended lower, contributing to market jitters ahead of the Presidents Day holiday [12][13] Inflation and Interest Rates - U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in January, leading traders to raise the probability of a 25 basis point interest-rate cut in June to 52.3% from 48.9% [12][13] Sector Performance - Large-cap tech stocks, particularly Nvidia and Apple, were significant drags on the S&P 500, while Applied Materials provided a strong boost with an 8.1% increase after positive revenue forecasts [8][12] - Defensive utilities and real estate sectors were the top gainers, with utilities up 2.69% and real estate up 1.48% [8][12] - The S&P 500 software and services index closed up 0.9%, contrasting with a 0.5% decline in the tech sector [6][12] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautious, with predictions of choppy trading ahead due to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and the anticipated transition of Fed Chair Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh [7][12] - Historical trends indicate that market volatility often accompanies Fed leadership changes during midterm years [7] Trading Activity - Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, with a ratio of 2.57-to-1 on the NYSE and 1.92-to-1 on the Nasdaq [10][11] - The S&P 500 recorded 34 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows, with a total of 18.61 billion shares traded, below the 20.75 billion moving average for the last 20 sessions [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector is crucial for the transformation and upgrading of Northeast China's old industrial base, with significant growth in various financing metrics projected for 2025, indicating a robust financial ecosystem supporting economic revitalization [1][2]. Financing Channels - In 2025, Liaoning Province's social financing scale is expected to increase by 348.2 billion yuan, the highest in seven years, with new corporate bond financing reaching 37.3 billion yuan, the highest in nine years [2]. - The balance of RMB loans is projected to reach 5.32 trillion yuan, with an increase of 121.9 billion yuan, marking the highest growth in three years [2]. - The demand for financing in the real economy is being increasingly met, particularly through corporate bond financing, which reflects a richer financing channel for the real economy [2][3]. Financing Services Optimization - China Construction Bank's Liaoning branch has provided comprehensive financial support to a technology enterprise, including 100 million yuan in fixed asset loans and 30 million yuan in working capital loans [4]. - The bank's technology loan balance is expected to reach 104.47 billion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 17.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.05% [4]. - The financial services are evolving from a broad approach to a more targeted one, addressing the specific needs of enterprises at different growth stages [4][5]. Financing Ecosystem Development - The "2026 Capital Market Liaoning Action" event attracted over 80 listed companies and more than 100 potential listing companies, providing comprehensive services for enterprises seeking to go public [7]. - In 2025, direct financing in Liaoning is projected to exceed 90 billion yuan, reaching 92.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, marking a ten-year high [7]. - Various innovative financial products, including public REITs and intellectual property securitization, are being introduced to support enterprise development [7][8]. Financial Environment Optimization - Liaoning is implementing measures to enhance the financial ecosystem, focusing on issues like financial fraud and debt evasion, to restore market confidence [8]. - The province aims to address shortcomings such as low capitalization levels and insufficient roles of leading companies in the economy, with targeted initiatives to improve the effectiveness of capital market services [8].

Core Viewpoint - The potential rollback of steel tariffs by President Donald Trump is causing a decline in U.S. steel and aluminum stocks, which have previously benefited from these tariffs supporting higher commodity prices [1]. Group 1: Impact on Steel Stocks - U.S. steel stocks experienced a drop due to concerns over the possible reduction of tariffs that have been instrumental in maintaining elevated commodity prices [1]. - The article highlights that the recent strength in steel and aluminum stocks was largely attributed to the import tariffs imposed by President Trump [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The fears surrounding the potential tariff rollback have led to a negative sentiment in the market, particularly affecting companies involved in the steel sector [1]. - The decline in stock prices reflects investor anxiety regarding the future pricing environment for steel and aluminum if tariffs are reduced [1].

Company Overview - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is a leading steel producer and metal recycler in the United States, based in Fort Wayne, Indiana, with a market capitalization of $29.1 billion. The company operates through various segments including Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations [1]. Stock Performance - STLD shares have significantly outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks, surging 50.8%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by 12.9%. Year-to-date, STLD stock is up 17.7%, contrasting with a slight decline in the S&P 500 [2]. - The stock has also outperformed the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB), which has risen by 19.2% over the same period [3]. Recent Financial Results - On January 26, STLD shares fell by 4.4% following the release of Q4 2025 results, where net income decreased to $266 million ($1.82 per share) from $404 million ($2.74 per share) in Q3. This decline was attributed to a 35% sequential drop in operating income from steel operations to $322 million, driven by lower realized steel prices, seasonal demand weakness, and planned maintenance outages that reduced flat-rolled production by an estimated 140,000 to 150,000 tons [5]. Future Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts project STLD's earnings per share (EPS) to increase by 70.1% year-over-year to $13.59. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed, having beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing once. Overall, STLD stock holds a consensus "Strong Buy" rating, with eight out of eleven analysts recommending "Strong Buys" and three suggesting "Holds" [6]. Analyst Ratings - On January 9, Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos De Alba downgraded Steel Dynamics from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating, setting a price target of $194. Currently, the stock is trading above the mean price target of $192.40, with the highest price target of $200 indicating only marginal upside from current levels [8].

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs' stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping 32.5% at its lowest point, primarily due to disappointing earnings and macroeconomic challenges, but there are signs of potential recovery in 2026 as market dynamics improve and steel prices rise [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs reported a net loss of $1.4 billion for 2025, which is approximately double the loss from 2024 [6]. - The company ended a major five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability stemming from a tariff-driven price gap [5]. Market Dynamics - The automotive sector, a key market for Cleveland-Cliffs, faced a slump in demand due to declining vehicle production in the U.S. during 2025 [4]. - However, management anticipates a recovery in automotive volumes and has already secured orders from clients, which is expected to positively impact revenue and earnings in 2026 [7]. Price Trends - Steel prices are expected to rise, with hot-rolled oil-steel prices projected to be nearly $60 per ton higher sequentially in the first quarter of 2026, with further improvements anticipated throughout the year [8]. - The Canadian subsidiary, Stelco, is expected to benefit from government-imposed restrictions on steel imports starting December 2025, which may enhance its market position [8]. Investment Outlook - Cleveland-Cliffs is viewed as a potential turnaround stock worth monitoring in 2026, given the anticipated recovery in market conditions and pricing [8].

Group 1: Tariff Costs and Impact - A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that nearly 90% of the cost of President Trump's 2025 tariffs was borne by US firms and consumers, contradicting claims that foreign countries were responsible for the costs [1][4][9] - In the first eight months of 2025, 94% of tariff costs were absorbed by American businesses and consumers, with this share decreasing to 92% in September and October, and further to 86% in November as foreign exporters began to take on more costs [1][2][9] Group 2: Revenue and Economic Effects - The US collected $30 billion in customs duties in January alone, leading to a fiscal year-to-date total of $124 billion, which represents a 304% increase from the same period a year earlier [10] - For the calendar year 2025, tariff collections reached $287 billion, nearly tripling the previous year's total, with projections indicating that levies will raise $171.1 billion in 2026, marking the largest tax increase since 1993 [10] Group 3: Domestic Investment and Supply Chain Diversification - Tariffs have reportedly spurred domestic investment and supply-chain diversification, with companies like Stellantis pledging $13 billion, Toyota $10 billion, and Apple announcing $600 billion in US investment [12] - China's share of US imports has decreased to below 10% in 2025, down from nearly 25% in 2017, as Mexico and Vietnam have gained market share, which advocates argue reduces dependence on a single foreign supplier [13]