Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Yara International in the fertilizer industry, showing significant growth in revenue and profit [1][2] - As of August 4, Yara International's closing price was 32.03 yuan, with a PE ratio of 23.61 and a total market capitalization of 29.597 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the fertilizer industry is 25.19, with a median of 22.57, positioning Yara International at 16th place among its peers [1][2] Group 2 - Yara International's main business includes potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with key products being potassium chloride and brine [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, reflecting a 373.53% increase [1] - The company's gross profit margin stood at 54.12% for the latest reporting period [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of urea is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties, urea prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [47] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Market Review - In July, the urea market was initially strong due to expectations of eliminating backward production capacity and anti - involution. The futures price of urea fluctuated upward, reaching a maximum of 1828 yuan/ton. Then, market sentiment cooled, and the price dropped. On August 1st, the 09 - contract of urea closed at 1709 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton lower than at the beginning of the previous month. The spot price also rose first and then fell, with the Henan market price at 1760 yuan/ton, close to the level at the beginning of the previous month [6] - The basis of the main urea contract (Henan) fluctuated narrowly in July, weakened as the futures price soared, and then strengthened as the futures price declined at the end of the month, with an operating range of 3 - 76 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 price difference of urea showed a weakening trend, with the closing price difference on July 31st at - 22 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton smaller than at the beginning of the month [9][13] 2. Urea Production Capacity and Output Analysis - In July, urea production device maintenance increased, and the operating rate first decreased and then increased. The natural - gas - based urea operating rate also showed the same trend. Some enterprises such as Xinjiang Xinji Energy have production capacity commissioning plans. The daily average output of urea in July was still higher than the historical value, and the monthly output was estimated to be 608.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.6 tons [16][20] 3. Urea Cost - Profit Analysis - In July, the market price of anthracite stopped falling and rose. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 8.94%, a month - on - month increase of 1.99 percentage points. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of gas - based urea was - 7.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98 percentage points [24] 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - From January to June 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 3593 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 425 tons. In July, the production - sales ratio of urea was between 95.3% - 96.6%. The national grain sown area increased in 2024, and with the improvement of agricultural production conditions, the demand for fertilizers for summer crops such as corn and rice was released [26][29] 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In July, the operating rate of compound fertilizer increased continuously from the bottom, and the estimated monthly output was 328 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34 tons. The average operating rate of melamine enterprises in July was 61.37%, and it is expected to remain above 60% in August [32][35] 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to June 2025, the total export of fertilizers in China was 1712.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 452 tons. The export volume of urea was 7.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons [39] 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of July, the enterprise inventory of urea was 75.7 tons, a decrease of 11.6 tons from the beginning of the month. The port inventory was 52 tons, close to the export peak level in September 2023. The registered warehouse receipts were 3373, equivalent to 6.746 tons of urea [41][44] 8. Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Urea production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, and the supply is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, with the daily average output at 20 - 21 tons. Demand: Agricultural demand is scattered after the concentrated fertilization period; industrial demand from compound fertilizers is increasing, and other industrial demands fluctuate slightly; export demand is expected to be concentrated from July to August. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [47]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【尿素周报（UR)】 宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-04 陈一凡 从业资格证号：F3054270 投资咨询证号：Z0015946 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 尿素:宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）产量：尿素产量135.48万吨，较上周增加0.01吨，环比涨0.01%；周均日产19.35万吨，较上周基本持平。周期内宁夏、安徽、河北等省产量有一定增 加，产量有减少的省份是河南、内蒙古、山西等。2、开工率：尿素产能利用率83.60%，环比涨0.01%。周期内环比开工上涨的省份在宁夏、甘肃、河北、 | | | | 安徽等，环比开工下降的省份在河南、内蒙古、山西等。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量1130吨，较上周增加310吨，环比涨37.80%。短时复合肥开工小幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to remain loose, and the demand is seasonally weak. Under the game between long and short in the market, the short - term price may continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by news, but the upside and downside space are both limited. It is recommended that investors respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: No detailed description of the trend, only the data source is mentioned as Wenhua Finance and Guoxin Futures [7][8]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On July 30, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 28 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from last Wednesday, and at a low level compared with the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.93%, up 1.45% month - on - month and 5.79% year - on - year, still at a high level in the past five years [16]. - **Urea Daily Average Output**: The daily average output of urea was 193,500 tons, still in the high - level range of the past five years [17]. - **Urea Device Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea devices was 178,200 tons, flat month - on - month and down 3.16% year - on - year [19]. - **Domestic Urea Device Planned and Under - construction in 2025**: Multiple enterprises in different provinces such as Jiangsu Shuangduo, Wulan Group, etc. have planned production capacities in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of a large amount [20]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.09 million tons, flat month - on - month; the weekly output of pipeline - gas - based urea for fertilizers is 300,000 tons, up 3.45% month - on - month. The supply pattern remains loose [22]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Capacity Operation Rate**: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 31.09%, up 6.24% from the previous period and 5.79% year - on - year [26]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - factory Inventory**: The in - factory inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 777,200 tons, up 4.73% month - on - month and 18.80% year - on - year [28]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 61.08%, down 2.31% month - on - month and 8.27% year - on - year [33]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 757,000 tons, up 2.16% month - on - month; port inventory is 565,000 tons, up 27.54% month - on - month [36]. 3.2.4 Cost Side - **Urea Production Profit**: Currently, the production profit of fixed - bed urea is - 127 yuan/ton, the production profit of entrained - flow bed process is 352 yuan/ton, and the production profit of natural - gas - based urea is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On July 31, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from July 24 [46]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea devices is getting stronger. The summary price of Yangquan anthracite fines is 770 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period; the summary price of Jincheng anthracite washed small pieces is 900 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period [48]. 3.2.5 Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance data of urea from January 2024 to September 2025, including initial inventory, output, total supply, consumption, export, total demand, ending inventory, supply - demand ratio, and price [52]. 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply Side**: The high - supply situation of urea is difficult to change significantly in the short term, and the supply will continue to be loose [57]. - **Demand Side**: It is currently the traditional off - season for demand. Downstream markets are generally wait - and - see, mainly following rigid demand, and there is no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement [57]. - **Inventory Side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. The enterprise inventory is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the port inventory has increased significantly due to the orderly collection of goods for export [57]. - **Cost Side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with changes in demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Investors are advised to respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年08月03日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡承压 | | • | 本周(20250724-0730)，中国尿素生产企业产量：135.48万吨，较上期涨0.01万吨，环比涨0.01%。周期内新增3家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复4 家（装置）企业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅增加。下周，中国尿素周产量预计134-135万吨附近，较本期小幅减少。下个周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期可能3家企业装置计划停车，2-3家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量小幅减少的概 | | | | 率较大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，内需短期持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显 | | | | ...

Core Insights - The performance meeting of Cangge Mining highlighted that China's potassium chloride consumption is expected to show a trend of rising and then falling from January to June 2025, peaking at 1.71 million tons in March before returning to 1.3 million tons in June [1] Industry Summary - In the first half of 2025, the total domestic production of potassium chloride is approximately 2.55 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.49% [1] - The import dependency for potassium fertilizer exceeds 70%, indicating a high reliance on foreign sources for potassium fertilizer [1] - The upcoming autumn and winter fertilization season is anticipated to further stimulate demand in the potassium fertilizer market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3][4] 2. Core Views Market Analysis - Cost and profit: Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, profits are narrowing [2]. - Supply: The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply. The output and operating rate of urea plants are expected to remain high in August [2][15]. - Imports and exports: After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. Urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [2][30]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.7%, and that of melamine is 63.5%. Urea enterprises' order days are 6.1 days. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of urea enterprises is 917,000 tons. As demand weakens in the second half of the month, upstream inventory begins to accumulate. The port inventory is 493,000 tons. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - In July, affected by the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", coking coal and coke futures led the rise, and urea futures were driven by sentiment, with the futures price rising significantly. However, after the macro - favorable factors dissipated at the end of the month, the futures price quickly declined, and the market returned to fundamental trading. Meanwhile, it was continuously disturbed by export - related policies. As the peak season for summer agricultural demand ends, downstream demand gradually weakens, upstream inventory accumulates, and urea prices mainly fluctuate weakly [9]. Urea Output - The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The domestic monthly urea output in August is expected to reach 6.1 million tons, a slight increase from July. There are few planned urea plant overhauls, and the daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply [15]. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Currently, coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, production profits are narrowing. In July, the overall operating rate of urea was 84.3%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous month. The coal - based operating rate was 84.4%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous month, and the gas - based operating rate was 81%, a 2.4% increase from the previous month. With few planned urea plant overhauls in the future, the operating rate of urea plants is expected to remain high in August [20]. Urea Import and Export Volume and Export Profit - In June 2025, urea imports were 27.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 87%. In June 2025, urea exports were 66,200 tons. After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. With the relaxation of domestic export policies, urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen significantly, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [30]. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - At the end of July, the operating rate of compound fertilizers was 38.7%, an 8.6% increase from the previous month. The operating rate of melamine was 63.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. Urea enterprises' order days were 6.1 days, roughly the same as the previous month. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [40]. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - At the end of July, the inventory of urea enterprises was 917,000 tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous month. In the first half of July, it was still the peak season for downstream demand, and urea inventory decreased. However, as demand weakened in the second half of the month, inventory began to accumulate. The port inventory was 493,000 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous month. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [44].

05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 情绪降温，价格走低 尿素周报 2025/08/02 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 受国内商品情绪降温叠加自身供需偏弱影响，尿素价格持续走弱，现货跌幅小于盘面，基差低位走高。国内农业需求进入扫 尾阶段，需求逐步走弱。目前尿素仍是低估值与弱供需的格局，后续需求仍主要集中在出口以及复合肥上，当前矛盾相对有 | | --- | --- | | | 限，受整体商品情绪影响较大。 | | 基本面 | 供应  国内开工83.6%，环比上周-0.1%，目前日产19.08万吨。   各工艺利润均处于中低位。 | | |  短停装置较多，短期开工延续震荡下行，但同比仍在高位。 | | | 短期出口对接不畅。利好提振有限。 | | | 需求  复合肥开工38.68%，环比+5.1%，开工有所提速，企业提前建仓，成品库存同比高位。 | | | ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【7月尿素主力09合约宽幅震荡，后市价格或继续调整】7月，尿素主力09合约宽幅震荡，价格冲高回落 且波动弹性大。外围情绪扰动主导价格波动，市场情绪反复致盘面价格趋势不明显。月底，尿素主力期 价随商品整体情绪降温而下移。 从基本面供需看，供给端相对稳定，存量负荷变动小。需求上，复合 肥负荷季节性增量和出口提振，使尿素产业去库顺畅。但月底因终端采购积极性差、港口库存回落和煤 炭价格调整，产业库存反弹。本月尿素供需改善有限，对盘面助力不足。 展望后市，宏观与产业博弈 或持续。市场对后续宏观有预期，而尿素需求支撑有限，农业需求褪去，工业需求增量不足，产业仍面 临去库压力。预计8月尿素价格宽幅震荡调整概率大。 套利方面，09合约将演绎交割逻辑，反弹动能不 足。随着主力合约移仓，预估UR09&01价差走弱动能趋缓，前期反套可逐步获利平仓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for urea in July experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising and then falling, influenced by external market sentiments and a lack of clear trends in price movements [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side remained relatively stable with minimal changes in existing load [1] - Demand increased seasonally due to higher compound fertilizer loads and export boosts, leading to smooth destocking in the urea industry [1] - However, at the end of the month, low terminal purchasing enthusiasm, declining port inventories, and adjustments in coal prices caused a rebound in industry inventories [1] Market Outlook - The overall improvement in supply and demand for urea was limited, providing insufficient support for market prices [1] - Future market dynamics are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry conditions, with limited support for urea demand due to declining agricultural needs and insufficient industrial demand growth [1] - It is anticipated that urea prices will likely continue to experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in August [1] Arbitrage Opportunities - The 09 contract is expected to gradually reflect delivery logic, with insufficient rebound momentum [1] - As the main contract transitions, the price spread between UR09 and UR01 is expected to weaken, allowing for gradual profit-taking from previous short positions [1]