格隆汇10月30日丨重庆啤酒(600132.SH)发布三季报，2025年前三季度实现营业总收入130.59亿元，同比 下降0.03%；归属母公司股东净利润12.41亿元，同比下降6.83%；基本每股收益为2.56元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) third-quarter sales met expectations, while EBITDA performance exceeded concerns [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, Budweiser APAC's sales decreased by 8.4%, with a slight increase in average selling price by 0.1% and a year-on-year volume decline of 8.6% [1] - The Chinese market continues to face pressure, while the South Korean market shows stable performance [1] Group 2: EBITDA and Profitability - The standardized EBITDA margin in Q3 2025 saw an organic growth of 46 basis points to 28.2% [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, the gross margin increased organically by 42 basis points, while the EBIT margin decreased organically by 46 basis points [1] Group 3: Regional Performance - In the Asia Pacific West region, Q3 2025 organic sales fell by 12.0%, with volume down 9.9% and average selling price down 2.4%, leading to a standardized EBITDA decline of 11.9% [1] - In the Asia Pacific East region, Q3 2025 organic sales grew by 3.9%, with volume down 0.6% but average selling price up by 4.5%, resulting in a standardized EBITDA increase of 8.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Qingdao Beer (600600) saw a 1.4% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 5.7% increase in net profit for the first nine months, indicating a slight decline in Q3 revenue and a modest increase in net profit, which fell short of expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 was 8.876 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1] - Net profit for Q3 was 1.37 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, both figures missing expectations by 3% and 5% respectively [1] Margin and Cost Analysis - Improvement in gross margin and a decrease in SG&A ratio led to an increase in operating profit margin by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Earnings Forecast and Target Price - UBS has lowered its earnings forecast for Qingdao Beer for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 12%, considering a slight increase in operating expenses which affected the operating profit margin [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 63.27 HKD to 59.4 HKD, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered the target price for Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. (00168) to HKD 59.4 while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to mixed financial results and adjustments in earnings forecasts [1] Financial Performance - For the first nine months, Qingdao Beer reported a revenue increase of 1.4% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 5.7% year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter, revenue was RMB 8.876 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 1.37 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1] - Both revenue and net profit fell short of expectations by 3% and 5%, respectively [1] Operational Metrics - The improvement in gross margin and a decrease in SG&A ratio led to an increase in operating profit margin by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - UBS has adjusted its earnings forecast for Qingdao Beer for the years 2025 to 2027 down by 2% to 12%, considering a slight increase in operating expenses [1]

Core Insights - Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd. reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, with total revenue at 13.059 billion yuan, down 0.03% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.241 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from high-end beer products reached 7.715 billion yuan, an increase of 1.18% year-on-year - Revenue from mainstream beer products was 4.685 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.66% year-on-year - Revenue from economy beer products totaled 314 million yuan, down 1.21% year-on-year [1] Sales by Region - In the Northwest region, revenue was 3.755 billion yuan, up 2.23% year-on-year - In the Central region, revenue reached 5.268 billion yuan, down 1.53% year-on-year - In the Southern region, revenue was 3.692 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.18% year-on-year [1]

格隆汇10月30日｜重庆啤酒(600132.SH)发布2025年第三季度报告，第三季度营收为42.20亿元，同比增 长0.41%；净利润为3.76亿元，同比下降12.71%。前三季度营收为130.59亿元，同比微降0.03%；净利润 为12.41亿元，同比下降6.83%。业绩下滑主要由于消费市场仍处于恢复阶段，市场竞争加剧，叠加原 料、包材、能源等成本波动影响，导致利润承压。 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) showed strong revenue performance in the Asia-Pacific East region for Q3, with organic revenue growth of 3.9% and organic EBITDA growth of 8.7%, surpassing the bank's expectations of 1.1% and 7.0% respectively [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 8.9 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Budweiser APAC's organic sales decreased by 8.4%, better than Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 12.6% decline; standardized EBITDA was USD 438 million, with an organic decline of 6.9%, outperforming the expected USD 401 million (15.8% decline) [1] - The standardized EBITDA margin was reported at 28%, compared to the expected 26.9% [1] - Group-level organic EBIT fell by 6.1%, while standardized net profit was USD 204 million, a 9.3% year-on-year decline, better than the expected USD 182 million (19.1% decline) [1] - Q3 net profit was USD 185 million, down 8% year-on-year, primarily due to weak revenue [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific West region's revenue declined by 12%, with organic EBITDA down 11.9%, outperforming Goldman Sachs' expectations of a 16.5% and 23% decline respectively [2] - In the Chinese market, organic revenue fell by 15.1% and organic EBITDA by 17.4%, better than the expected declines of 17.9% and 26% [2] - Average selling price decreased by 4.1%, with sales volume down 11.4%, although there was an expansion in household consumption, negatively impacted by brand mix due to destocking [2] - The Indian market achieved double-digit revenue growth and significant EBITDA margin expansion from a low base [2]

高盛指出，百威亚太亚太西区受印度市场强劲表现带动，中国市场表现优于忧虑。亚太西区收入同比跌 12%，EBITDA有机计算同比跌11.9%，优于该行预期的销售额同比跌16.5%及EBITDA同比跌23%。中 国市场收入有机计算同比跌15.1%，EBITDA有机计算同比跌17.4%，表现领先该行预期的同比跌17.9% 及26%;平均售价同比跌4.1%，销量同比跌11.4%，其中家庭内消费有所扩张，但不利的品牌组合因去库 存化所致。印度市场实现双位数收入增长，并在低基数上实现显著的EBITDA利润率扩张。 高盛表示，百威亚太2025年第三季度有机销售额同比下跌8.4%，优于高盛预期的同比跌12.6%;标准化 EBITDA为4.38亿美元，有机计算同比跌6.9%，优于该行预期的4.01亿美元(有机计算同比跌15.8%)，并 高于市场共识预期的4.07亿美元。报告的标准化EBITDA利润率为28%，对比该行预期为26.9%。集团层 面EBIT有机计算同比下跌6.1%，而标准化净利润为2.04亿美元，同比跌9.3%(计入外汇影响后)，优于该 行预期的1.82亿美元(同比跌19.1%)及市场共识预期的1.746亿美元。第三 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 1.34% to 1.875 billion yuan in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.16% to 332 million yuan, indicating that revenue and profit fell short of market expectations [1][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue increase of 3.81% to 5.073 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 17.05% to 944 million yuan [1][5] - The company’s beer sales volume for the first three quarters was 1.2035 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while the average price per ton was 4,215 yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, beer sales volume decreased by 2.9% to 469,400 tons, with the average price per ton at 3,995 yuan, reflecting a slower growth rate compared to the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 increased by 1.16 percentage points to 50.93%, and the net profit margin rose by 1.36 percentage points to 17.83%, benefiting from improved product mix and lower raw material costs [2] - The company maintained stable expense ratios across sales, management, R&D, and financial costs, with slight increases in each category [2] - The company is actively enhancing its mid-to-high-end product lines and expanding into markets outside its home province, indicating potential for future growth despite current challenges [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.43, 0.47, and 0.52 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to external environmental impacts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China International reports that Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. (00168) experienced a revenue increase of 1.4% and a net profit increase of 5.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters, slightly below expectations [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Qingdao Beer’s total revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of 0.3% increase and 0.5% decrease respectively, attributed to ongoing price deflation pressures from factory to retail for essential consumer goods [1] - Sales of mid-to-high-end products increased by 6.8% year-on-year, showing an acceleration from the previous quarter's 4.8%, indicating an encouraging structural improvement [1] Investment Outlook - The target price for Qingdao Beer is maintained at HKD 58.8, corresponding to forecasted price-to-earnings ratios of 15.9 times and 15.3 times for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] - The rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" [1]