在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，当前多国央行宣布暂停降息，应理解为全球宽松进程的节奏放 缓，而非流动性的全面收紧。即使海外市场流动性进一步宽松的速度暂时放缓，但当前全球整体流动性 环境仍处于相对宽松状态，特别是市场对美联储等在2026年启动降息的预期依然存在，这将对流动性形 成支撑。 截至北京时间1月29日中国证券报·中证金牛座记者发稿时，1月以来已有美联储、瑞典央行、挪威央 行、加拿大央行等多个重要经济体央行选择暂停降息。2024年以来新一轮宽松周期有放缓脚步的迹象， 这对大类资产配置会带来怎样的影响值得关注。 大类资产配置该如何调整？权益市场方面，董忠云建议，一方面，聚焦高景气成长赛道，特别是人工智 能产业链（包括算力基础设施、半导体、端侧硬件）及高端制造（机器人、新能源）；另一方面，可配 置高股息红利资产（如银行、公用事业、能源央企等）作为防御底仓。 对于黄金和债市，王开认为，黄金等贵金属短期走高后不排除震荡调整风险，但黄金长期配置逻辑并未 改变。对于债券市场，建议以票息策略为主，不宜过度通过加杠杆博取资本利得。 外围流动性宽松节奏放缓对中国资产影响几何？国信证券首席策略分析师王开认为，实质性影响有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies are currently experiencing a bottoming out in profitability, with a notable structural divergence in performance across sectors [2][3] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - A-share companies' total revenue growth for the first half of the year is -0.02%, while non-financial enterprises show a decline of -0.53% year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement compared to the first quarter [2] - Net profit growth for A-share companies is 2.42%, and for non-financial enterprises, it is 0.98%, both showing a decline from the first quarter [2] - The second quarter's net profit growth for non-financial enterprises reached a seasonal low since 2010, primarily driven by financial companies [2] - Return on Equity (ROE) for A-share companies is 7.76%, and for non-financial enterprises, it is 6.55%, both down from the previous quarter [2] - Cash flow analysis shows that while net cash flow remains negative, operational, investment, and financing cash flows have improved, with non-financial real estate companies maintaining high free cash flow levels, indicating strong potential for dividends [2] Structural Performance - High-tech and overseas-oriented companies are performing well, while domestic consumption sectors are still recovering [3] - The net profit growth for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board exceeded 20% in the second quarter, leading the market, with significant contributions from the AI, semiconductor, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [3] - Companies focused on overseas markets, as indicated by the Outbound 50 Index, reported a revenue growth of 12% and a 0.6% increase in ROE, outperforming the overall market [3] - Companies with over 10% of revenue from overseas markets are seeing a recovery in profit margins and ROE, making overseas business a key growth driver [3] - In contrast, domestic consumer goods sectors have shown a significant decline in growth rates compared to the first quarter, indicating a need for recovery in domestic consumption [3] - Overall, A-share companies' profitability is gradually solidifying, with innovation and overseas expansion becoming new growth points [3]