证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 中东冲突升级，关注商品、军工及"HALO 交易" 财信证券宏观策略周报（3.2-3.6） 2026 年 03 月 01 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 0.73 7.73 23.15 沪深 300 0.08 4.27 18.96 -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。后续行情走向仍存在两点隐忧：一是海外局势动荡加剧，中东冲 突、美国关税走势均存在较大不确定性，将对市场风险偏好产生影响。二是 "日历效应"支撑作用减弱。随着春季躁动行情临近尾声、业绩披露季到来， 预计市场走势将回归基本面。长期来看，我们维持"春节后至 4 月底 A 股指 数走势将逐步回归市场内在动能，整体呈现宽幅震荡走势，双向波动幅度可 能加大，指数级别机会仍需等待"的判断，静待两会政府工作报告指引以及 4 月底 A 股业 ...

Group 1: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector experienced significant gains, with retail concepts seeing a notable rise in the afternoon, highlighted by Maoye Commercial's stock hitting the daily limit within 4 minutes, marking its third consecutive trading day of gains [3][6] - The retail sector's growth is supported by a recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance, Customs, and the State Taxation Administration regarding a "zero tariff" policy for imported goods purchased by residents in Hainan Free Trade Port [8] - The smart retail market is projected to grow to approximately 64.5 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 22%, driven by the application of AI technology [9] Group 2: Financial Sector - The financial sector showed strong performance in the afternoon, with banks and securities firms experiencing notable increases, including Xiamen Bank and Huayin Securities hitting the daily limit [10][11] - Predictions indicate that by 2026, new funds entering the insurance sector may exceed 2 trillion yuan, increasing demand for high-dividend assets, particularly in the banking sector [13] - Major securities firms reported positive earnings for 2025, with Citic Securities expecting revenue of 74.83 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.05 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [14] Group 3: Aerospace and Photovoltaic Sector - The space photovoltaic concept saw a significant pullback, with stocks like Junda Co. and Mingyang Smart Energy hitting the daily limit down [15][16] - Several listed companies announced they had not engaged in cooperation with Elon Musk's team regarding space photovoltaic projects, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the commercialization of this technology [19] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association indicated that space photovoltaic technology is still in the early stages of exploration and verification, with mainstream choices remaining high-efficiency GaAs batteries despite their high costs [20]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has experienced a significant decline of 5.8% year-to-date, contrasting with a 1.1% increase in H-share Chinese banks, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector's performance has been weak, ranking last among 35 industries in the Wind secondary industry classification [1] - Despite the overall downturn, certain banks like Qingdao Bank and Ningbo Bank have shown strong performance, with increases of 19.87% and 9.29% respectively in January [2] - The average dividend yield for A-share banks remains at approximately 4.5%, which is higher than the 0.5%-2.0% returns of various risk-free assets, making bank stocks attractive for long-term investors [3] Group 2: Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Since October 2025, there has been a cautious approach from funds towards the banking sector, leading to a period of consolidation [5] - Significant outflows have been recorded, with estimates showing that around 10% of the trading volume has been affected by net outflows from bank-related ETFs, totaling approximately 9111 billion yuan [6] - Despite short-term pressures, there is a belief that the fundamentals of the banking sector are improving, as indicated by increased institutional interest in bank credit issuance [6][9] Group 3: Long-term Opportunities - The banking sector is expected to see internal differentiation, with regional banks like Qingdao Bank and Ningbo Bank performing well against the backdrop of overall sector weakness [7] - Analysts predict that Qingdao Bank will maintain double-digit profit growth in 2026, supported by strong loan issuance capabilities and stable asset quality [8] - The demand for high-dividend assets remains strong, with expectations that insurance funds will inject over 2 trillion yuan into the market in 2026, further supporting bank stocks [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The current market adjustment reflects short-term fund disturbances, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to improving fundamentals [9] - Institutions are focusing on banks with strong asset quality and those that are improving their cost of liabilities and non-interest income [10] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from a stable dividend profile and recovery trading logic, especially as credit issuance continues to grow [10]

Core Viewpoint - Investment advisors are optimistic about the A-share market in 2026, with nearly 90% expecting an upward trend, and a consensus forming around economic recovery and increased capital inflow [6][7][13]. Group 1: Market Outlook - 88% of investment advisors are bullish on the A-share market for 2026, with 58% expecting an index increase of over 5% [6][14]. - Advisors predict a structural market characterized by fluctuations, with 46% expecting repeated index oscillations and significant gains in certain sectors [14][16]. - The consensus on macroeconomic recovery is strengthening, with 80% of advisors holding optimistic or neutral views on the economy [10][33]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - 67% of advisors recommend increasing allocations to equities, with 68% favoring stocks in the first quarter of 2026 [21][19]. - Advisors are shifting from a focus on growth stocks to a more balanced approach, with 42% expecting growth and dividend styles to converge [16][19]. - High dividend stocks are gaining attention, with 37% of advisors considering them reasonably valued, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [18][19]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The predominant strategy remains flexible thematic investment, with 47% of advisors advocating for this approach, while 29% are focusing on value investing [22][33]. - Advisors suggest maintaining a higher equity position, with 80% recommending a minimum of 50% equity allocation for clients [22][33]. - The preference for direct stock investments is increasing, with 47% of advisors suggesting this method [21][19]. Group 4: Client Performance and Sentiment - 82% of advisors reported that their clients achieved profits in 2025, a significant increase of 23 percentage points from 2024 [29][27]. - High-net-worth clients are showing increased confidence, with 19% planning to increase their investments, indicating a rising risk appetite [31][27]. - The sentiment towards gold investments is also positive, with 57% of advisors expecting gold prices to continue rising [25][26].

在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，当前多国央行宣布暂停降息，应理解为全球宽松进程的节奏放 缓，而非流动性的全面收紧。即使海外市场流动性进一步宽松的速度暂时放缓，但当前全球整体流动性 环境仍处于相对宽松状态，特别是市场对美联储等在2026年启动降息的预期依然存在，这将对流动性形 成支撑。 截至北京时间1月29日中国证券报·中证金牛座记者发稿时，1月以来已有美联储、瑞典央行、挪威央 行、加拿大央行等多个重要经济体央行选择暂停降息。2024年以来新一轮宽松周期有放缓脚步的迹象， 这对大类资产配置会带来怎样的影响值得关注。 大类资产配置该如何调整？权益市场方面，董忠云建议，一方面，聚焦高景气成长赛道，特别是人工智 能产业链（包括算力基础设施、半导体、端侧硬件）及高端制造（机器人、新能源）；另一方面，可配 置高股息红利资产（如银行、公用事业、能源央企等）作为防御底仓。 对于黄金和债市，王开认为，黄金等贵金属短期走高后不排除震荡调整风险，但黄金长期配置逻辑并未 改变。对于债券市场，建议以票息策略为主，不宜过度通过加杠杆博取资本利得。 外围流动性宽松节奏放缓对中国资产影响几何？国信证券首席策略分析师王开认为，实质性影响有限 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201), which has seen a stable increase in net inflows and has reached new highs in both scale and shares [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has recorded net inflows for 8 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling over 548 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The latest scale of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has reached 10.03 billion yuan, with a total of 7.843 billion shares, both marking all-time highs since its inception [1] Group 2 - The chief economist at Debon Securities, Cheng Qiang, predicts a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, supported by stable indices and a focus on technology growth, particularly in artificial intelligence and computing power sectors [1] - High dividend yield assets are expected to provide significant value as a stable cash flow source during periods of weak economic recovery and declining interest rates, with current valuations being relatively low [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds are designed to closely track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, selecting stocks with positive and high cash flow, which enhances the index's quality and risk resistance, making it suitable for long-term investment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with stable index support and technology growth as the main focus [2][5] - The sectors expected to lead the market include artificial intelligence and computing power, which are part of the hard technology track [2][5] - High dividend yield assets are highlighted as having significant bottom-line value, providing stable cash flow in an environment of weak economic recovery and declining interest rates, with current valuations at relatively low levels [2][5] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.05 trillion yuan, a decrease of 972 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The number of stocks that rose and fell in the market was 2,776 and 2,474 respectively, indicating a mixed performance [5] - The top three sectors for net capital inflow were identified as media, defense, and light manufacturing [5]

Market Performance - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording an 8-day increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw a 6-day increase [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% to 3563 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.14% [1] Trading Volume - The total market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 237.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3400 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan sector surged, with significant gains in stocks such as Hainan Mining and Hainan Airlines, which hit the daily limit [4] - The industrial metals sector also saw a rise, with Jiangxi Copper hitting the daily limit [4] - The commercial aerospace, small metals, titanium dioxide, and fluorochemical sectors experienced notable increases [4] Notable Stocks - Hainan sector stocks such as Intercontinental Oil and Gas, Hainan Mining, and Jun Da Co. all reached their daily limit [5] - Jiangxi Copper announced a formal offer to acquire SolGold plc for 28 pence per share, targeting the Cascabel project in Ecuador, a significant undeveloped copper-gold deposit [6][7] Battery Sector - The battery sector saw gains, with Haike New Energy hitting the daily limit and Huasheng Lithium gaining over 11% [9] - Haike New Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement for 270,000 tons of lithium battery materials, following previous agreements totaling nearly 800,000 tons [9] Paper Sector - The paper sector experienced a pullback, with companies like Jiang Tian Technology and Anni Co. seeing declines of over 12% and 3% respectively [12] - Suzano announced a global price increase for hardwood pulp starting January 2026, which may impact the sector [11] Rubber Products and Small Appliances - The rubber products sector declined, with Tian Tie Technology dropping over 13% due to the criminal detention of its controlling shareholder [13][14] - The small appliances sector also faced losses, with Beili Cong falling over 14% amid an investigation into information disclosure violations [15][16] Market Outlook - According to the chief economist of Debon Securities, the A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, supported by stable indices and a focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and computing sectors [16]

Group 1 - A-shares opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down 0.21%, while lithium mining stocks showed strong performance, with Shengxin Lithium Energy rising nearly 5% [1] - Debon Securities predicts a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, supported by government focus on capital market development and continuous inflow of medium to long-term funds, despite a weak macroeconomic recovery [1] - The report emphasizes that technology growth will remain the main theme, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" for technological advancement and the global AI industry wave, with sectors like artificial intelligence and computing power expected to lead the market [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities highlights the potential challenges in participating in the commercial aerospace sector, suggesting a focus on AI applications at low levels and key industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The report notes that the commercial aerospace sector has shown strong performance since mid-November, but the difficulty of future participation may increase, with signs of a shift towards lower-level sectors like nuclear power [2] - The suggested focus areas include AI applications in healthcare, intelligent driving, and key industries such as commercial aerospace, 6G, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces [2] Group 3 - Oriental Securities advises reducing positions in high-performing sectors like commercial aviation, robotics, and semiconductors, while continuing to seek stocks with potential for rebound within popular sectors [3] - The market remains active as the year-end approaches, particularly in the technology sector, showcasing a characteristic of "sector differentiation and individual stock brilliance" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new bull market in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high, and total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, indicating a more resilient and active capital market [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant increase, reaching a year-to-date rise of 17.6%, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged by 29.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 50.8% [13]. - The total trading volume of the A-share market exceeded 400 trillion yuan in 2025, compared to 255.8 trillion yuan in 2024, showcasing robust market activity [14]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The bull market is driven by technological breakthroughs, industrial dynamics, institutional reforms, capital inflows, and an increase in risk appetite, characterized as a "technology revaluation bull" [2][11]. - The introduction of the DeepSeek open-source inference model in January 2025 sparked enthusiasm in the domestic AI sector, leading to a shift in market narratives towards "hard technology" [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism for 2026, predicting a potential transition from a structural bull market to a broader market rally, with the possibility of the Shanghai Composite Index expanding by 10% to 20% if corporate earnings improve [2][11]. - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, supported by macroeconomic policies, ongoing industrial transformation, and continuous capital inflows [16][17].