在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，当前多国央行宣布暂停降息，应理解为全球宽松进程的节奏放 缓，而非流动性的全面收紧。即使海外市场流动性进一步宽松的速度暂时放缓，但当前全球整体流动性 环境仍处于相对宽松状态，特别是市场对美联储等在2026年启动降息的预期依然存在，这将对流动性形 成支撑。 截至北京时间1月29日中国证券报·中证金牛座记者发稿时，1月以来已有美联储、瑞典央行、挪威央 行、加拿大央行等多个重要经济体央行选择暂停降息。2024年以来新一轮宽松周期有放缓脚步的迹象， 这对大类资产配置会带来怎样的影响值得关注。 大类资产配置该如何调整？权益市场方面，董忠云建议，一方面，聚焦高景气成长赛道，特别是人工智 能产业链（包括算力基础设施、半导体、端侧硬件）及高端制造（机器人、新能源）；另一方面，可配 置高股息红利资产（如银行、公用事业、能源央企等）作为防御底仓。 对于黄金和债市，王开认为，黄金等贵金属短期走高后不排除震荡调整风险，但黄金长期配置逻辑并未 改变。对于债券市场，建议以票息策略为主，不宜过度通过加杠杆博取资本利得。 外围流动性宽松节奏放缓对中国资产影响几何？国信证券首席策略分析师王开认为，实质性影响有限 ...

截至1月21日10点20分，自由现金流ETF（159201）涨跌持平，成分股白银有色、梦百合涨停，浙 江龙盛、爱施德等跟涨。资金净流入方面，自由现金流ETF（159201）近10个交易日有8个交易日获资 金净流入，合计"吸金"超5.48亿元。自由现金流ETF（159201）最新规模达100.3亿元，最新份额达 78.43亿份，均创成立以来新高。 德邦证券首席经济学家程强认为，2026年A股有望继续"慢牛"行情，指数稳定具备充足支撑。预计 科技成长仍是主线，人工智能、算力等硬科技赛道有望继续引领行情；同时，高股息红利资产具备重要 底仓价值，能在经济弱复苏、利率下行的环境中提供稳定现金流，且当前估值处于相对低位。 自由现金流ETF（159201）及其联接基金（A：023917；C：023918）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指 数，经流动性、行业、ROE稳定性筛选后，选取自由现金流为正且占比高的股票，指数质地高，抗风险 能力强，适合底仓配置，满足长线投资配置需求。基金管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率为 0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平，最大程度让利投资者。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with stable index support and technology growth as the main focus [2][5] - The sectors expected to lead the market include artificial intelligence and computing power, which are part of the hard technology track [2][5] - High dividend yield assets are highlighted as having significant bottom-line value, providing stable cash flow in an environment of weak economic recovery and declining interest rates, with current valuations at relatively low levels [2][5] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.05 trillion yuan, a decrease of 972 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The number of stocks that rose and fell in the market was 2,776 and 2,474 respectively, indicating a mixed performance [5] - The top three sectors for net capital inflow were identified as media, defense, and light manufacturing [5]

Market Performance - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording an 8-day increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw a 6-day increase [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% to 3563 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.14% [1] Trading Volume - The total market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 237.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3400 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan sector surged, with significant gains in stocks such as Hainan Mining and Hainan Airlines, which hit the daily limit [4] - The industrial metals sector also saw a rise, with Jiangxi Copper hitting the daily limit [4] - The commercial aerospace, small metals, titanium dioxide, and fluorochemical sectors experienced notable increases [4] Notable Stocks - Hainan sector stocks such as Intercontinental Oil and Gas, Hainan Mining, and Jun Da Co. all reached their daily limit [5] - Jiangxi Copper announced a formal offer to acquire SolGold plc for 28 pence per share, targeting the Cascabel project in Ecuador, a significant undeveloped copper-gold deposit [6][7] Battery Sector - The battery sector saw gains, with Haike New Energy hitting the daily limit and Huasheng Lithium gaining over 11% [9] - Haike New Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement for 270,000 tons of lithium battery materials, following previous agreements totaling nearly 800,000 tons [9] Paper Sector - The paper sector experienced a pullback, with companies like Jiang Tian Technology and Anni Co. seeing declines of over 12% and 3% respectively [12] - Suzano announced a global price increase for hardwood pulp starting January 2026, which may impact the sector [11] Rubber Products and Small Appliances - The rubber products sector declined, with Tian Tie Technology dropping over 13% due to the criminal detention of its controlling shareholder [13][14] - The small appliances sector also faced losses, with Beili Cong falling over 14% amid an investigation into information disclosure violations [15][16] Market Outlook - According to the chief economist of Debon Securities, the A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, supported by stable indices and a focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and computing sectors [16]

Group 1 - A-shares opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down 0.21%, while lithium mining stocks showed strong performance, with Shengxin Lithium Energy rising nearly 5% [1] - Debon Securities predicts a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, supported by government focus on capital market development and continuous inflow of medium to long-term funds, despite a weak macroeconomic recovery [1] - The report emphasizes that technology growth will remain the main theme, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" for technological advancement and the global AI industry wave, with sectors like artificial intelligence and computing power expected to lead the market [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities highlights the potential challenges in participating in the commercial aerospace sector, suggesting a focus on AI applications at low levels and key industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The report notes that the commercial aerospace sector has shown strong performance since mid-November, but the difficulty of future participation may increase, with signs of a shift towards lower-level sectors like nuclear power [2] - The suggested focus areas include AI applications in healthcare, intelligent driving, and key industries such as commercial aerospace, 6G, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces [2] Group 3 - Oriental Securities advises reducing positions in high-performing sectors like commercial aviation, robotics, and semiconductors, while continuing to seek stocks with potential for rebound within popular sectors [3] - The market remains active as the year-end approaches, particularly in the technology sector, showcasing a characteristic of "sector differentiation and individual stock brilliance" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new bull market in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high, and total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, indicating a more resilient and active capital market [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant increase, reaching a year-to-date rise of 17.6%, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged by 29.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 50.8% [13]. - The total trading volume of the A-share market exceeded 400 trillion yuan in 2025, compared to 255.8 trillion yuan in 2024, showcasing robust market activity [14]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The bull market is driven by technological breakthroughs, industrial dynamics, institutional reforms, capital inflows, and an increase in risk appetite, characterized as a "technology revaluation bull" [2][11]. - The introduction of the DeepSeek open-source inference model in January 2025 sparked enthusiasm in the domestic AI sector, leading to a shift in market narratives towards "hard technology" [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism for 2026, predicting a potential transition from a structural bull market to a broader market rally, with the possibility of the Shanghai Composite Index expanding by 10% to 20% if corporate earnings improve [2][11]. - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, supported by macroeconomic policies, ongoing industrial transformation, and continuous capital inflows [16][17].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced continuous fluctuations and adjustments over the past month, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 2.63%, approximately 700 points [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 4.58%, over 400 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 4.83%, nearly 300 points [1] - Notable declines in technology stocks include NIO down 17%, Hua Hong Semiconductor down 15%, SMIC down 12%, and Li Auto down 10% [1] Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since early October, 15 Hong Kong-themed new funds have chosen to end their fundraising early, particularly technology-themed ETFs that rapidly increased stock positions after establishment [3] - Institutional investors share a consensus on the undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks and are actively seizing the opportunity presented by market corrections [4] Market Adjustment Factors - The adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with the Hang Seng Index down 5.85% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 18.01% from October 3 to December 19 [5] - Key factors include fluctuations in liquidity expectations due to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which have weakened interest rate cut expectations and affected global capital flows [6] - Concerns over the "AI bubble" in the U.S. have also impacted the Hong Kong technology sector [7] - Increased IPO activity has created significant pressure on the capital market, with over HKD 100 billion raised since the new IPO regulations were implemented [7] - A notable slowdown in southbound capital inflows has been observed, with the 10-day moving average dropping from an average of HKD 7 billion to below HKD 1 billion [7] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, identifying structural investment opportunities [8] - Predictions indicate a "slow bull" market for Hong Kong stocks in 2026, with attractive valuation ratios and improving liquidity conditions as southbound and overseas capital returns [9] - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [10] - High dividend yield assets are also favored in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the value of dividend-paying stocks [10] - Opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals and biotechnology are anticipated, driven by industry acceleration and favorable policy adjustments [10] - Traditional consumer and pharmaceutical sectors may see valuation recovery, as they are currently undervalued and could benefit from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [11]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced continuous fluctuations and adjustments over the past month, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 2.63%, approximately 700 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 4.58%, over 400 points [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has also decreased by 4.83%, nearly 300 points, with notable declines in tech stocks such as NIO (-17%), Hua Hong Semiconductor (-15%), SMIC (-12%), and Li Auto (-10%) [1] Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since early October, 15 new thematic funds in Hong Kong have chosen to end their fundraising early, particularly technology-themed ETFs, which have rapidly increased their stock positions after establishment, indicating a "fast launch, fast build" characteristic [3] - This trend reflects institutional investors' consensus on the undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks and their proactive approach to seizing the market correction as a buying opportunity [3] Reasons for Market Adjustment - The market adjustment since early October is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 5.85% and the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a deeper decline of 18.01% from October 3 to December 19 [5] - Key factors include: 1. Volatility in liquidity expectations due to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which have weakened interest rate cut expectations and affected global capital flows and valuations in the Hong Kong tech sector [5] 2. Concerns over the "AI bubble" in the U.S. impacting sentiment in the Hong Kong tech sector [5] 3. Increased pressure on the funding environment, with over HKD 1 billion raised from IPOs since new regulations were introduced, significantly impacting market liquidity [5] 4. Profit-taking from previously high-performing tech and consumer stocks, combined with external chip supply news affecting market sentiment [6] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 with attractive valuation ratios and improved liquidity as southbound and overseas capital returns [7] - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on areas such as computing power, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and humanoid robots [7] - High dividend yield assets are also favored in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the stability of dividend-paying stocks [7] - Additionally, the innovative drug and biotechnology sectors are seen as having significant investment opportunities, driven by industry acceleration and favorable policy adjustments [8]

Core Viewpoint - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities and actively seizing the market pullback as a layout window [1][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since October 10, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early fundraising closures, covering various types including passive index funds, equity mixed funds, and QDII funds [2][3]. - The early closure of fundraising is characterized by significantly shortened timelines, with some funds reducing their fundraising periods by over a month [3]. - Newly launched ETFs have shown rapid establishment of high stock positions, indicating a strong bullish signal, with some ETFs achieving stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% before listing [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Institutional Sentiment - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a good opportunity for building positions, with many funds seeing significant declines in their core stocks, yet maintaining strong fundamentals [4][5]. - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 12 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is around 23 times, both at about 30% lower than historical averages, reflecting institutional recognition of valuation opportunities [5]. Group 3: Market Challenges and External Factors - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a decline of 5.85% in the Hang Seng Index and 18.01% in the Hang Seng Tech Index from October 3 to December 19 [7]. - Factors contributing to the market adjustment include fluctuations in liquidity expectations, concerns over the "AI bubble" in the U.S., increased IPO activity causing funding pressure, and profit-taking in previously high-performing stocks [8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 with improved liquidity conditions [9]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9][10]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the value of resource companies and industrial metals [9][10].

Core Insights - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities presented by the market correction [1][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since October 10, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early fundraising closures, covering various types including passive index funds and equity mixed funds [2][3]. - The early closure of fundraising is characterized by significant time reductions, with some funds shortening their fundraising periods by over a month [3]. - Newly launched ETFs have established high stock positions quickly, indicating a strong bullish sentiment, with some ETFs reaching stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% before listing [3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Institutions view the current market adjustment as a prime opportunity for building positions, with many believing that the fundamental performance of key stocks remains strong despite recent price declines [4][5]. - The consensus among institutions is that the current valuation levels, with the Hang Seng Index trading at approximately 12 times earnings, represent a significant undervaluation [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The Hang Seng Index has seen a cumulative decline of 5.85% and the Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped 18.01% since early October, attributed to various internal and external factors [7]. - Key challenges include fluctuations in liquidity expectations, concerns over the U.S. "AI bubble," and increased pressure from IPO activities, which have raised over 100 billion HKD since new regulations were introduced [7][8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 driven by improved liquidity and returning capital [9]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9][10]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored, with institutions highlighting the stability of dividend-paying stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [9][10].