证券研究报告 | 2026年03月04日 2 月 PMI 数据解读 节日效应带动生产回落 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | 0755-81982462 | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2 月份，制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 分别为 49.0%和 49.5%，分别环比下降 0.3 个百分点和环比上升 0.1 个 百分点。 评论： 图1：中国 PMI 主要数据一览 | | | PMI | | 企业规模 | | 生产 | | 需求 | 库存 | | | 价格 | 配送 | 就业 | 预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI were 49.3% and 49.4%, respectively, both down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The manufacturing PMI fell below the expansion threshold, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[5] - The non-manufacturing PMI also declined, primarily due to significant downturns in the construction sector[7] Group 2: Economic Implications - The January PMI data suggests that the economic recovery process remains unstable, with many provinces lowering their growth targets for 2026[4] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable drop in production and demand, with new orders decreasing by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2[5] - The price index for purchasing rose by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1, indicating rising costs despite declining production volumes[6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the manufacturing sector, the contribution to PMI from production fell by 0.275 percentage points, while new orders contributed a decline of 0.48 percentage points[5] - The construction industry saw a significant drop of 4.0 percentage points in PMI to 48.8, below the average level of the past three years[8] - The service sector's PMI decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5, with mixed performance across sub-sectors[7]

分析报告·行业 中国 PMI 行业分析报告 202601： 建筑 4 年新低，电信价格新高 2026 年 1 月 31 日 分析报告 1 月份中国非制造业经营活动状况较上月回 落 0.8 个百分点，同比值-0.8。新订单较上月回落 1.2 个百分点，同比值-0.3；收费价格较上月回升 0.8 个百分点，同比值 0.2；中间投入价格较上月 回落 0.2 个百分点，同比值-0.4。生产性服务业较 上月回落 1.4，消费性服务业较上月回升 0.4。 大类行业：建筑业较上月回落 4 个百分点， 同比值-0.5,近年当月均值差-4.4；新订单回落 7.3 至 40.1；收费价格回升 0.8 至 48.2。 服务业较上月回落 0.2 至 49.5，同比值-0.8， 近年当月均值差-2；新订单回落 0.2 至 47.1；收 费价格回升 0.8 至 48.9。 本月，行业中类：经状指标最高的是信息与 商务服务中类，居民服务中类最低。回升最多的是 居民服务中类，房建中类回落最多。 中采咨询研究部 电话：010-68599115 邮箱：info@pmiii.org.cn 分析报告·行业 图 1：非制造业全国经营活动状况年度对比图 ...