分析报告·行业 中国 PMI 行业分析报告 202601： 建筑 4 年新低，电信价格新高 2026 年 1 月 31 日 分析报告 1 月份中国非制造业经营活动状况较上月回 落 0.8 个百分点，同比值-0.8。新订单较上月回落 1.2 个百分点，同比值-0.3；收费价格较上月回升 0.8 个百分点，同比值 0.2；中间投入价格较上月 回落 0.2 个百分点，同比值-0.4。生产性服务业较 上月回落 1.4，消费性服务业较上月回升 0.4。 大类行业：建筑业较上月回落 4 个百分点， 同比值-0.5,近年当月均值差-4.4；新订单回落 7.3 至 40.1；收费价格回升 0.8 至 48.2。 服务业较上月回落 0.2 至 49.5，同比值-0.8， 近年当月均值差-2；新订单回落 0.2 至 47.1；收 费价格回升 0.8 至 48.9。 本月，行业中类：经状指标最高的是信息与 商务服务中类，居民服务中类最低。回升最多的是 居民服务中类，房建中类回落最多。 中采咨询研究部 电话：010-68599115 邮箱：info@pmiii.org.cn 分析报告·行业 图 1：非制造业全国经营活动状况年度对比图 ...

月度分析报告·综述 中国 PMI 非制造业全国综述 202601： 建筑淡季延续，服务回落 2026 年 1 月 31 日 月度分析报告 1 月份中国非制造业经营活动状况回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.4%,近年当月均 值差-2.4，非制造业经营活动结束扩张的势头。新订单回落 1.2 至 46.1%，中间 投入价格回落，收费价格有所回升，需求恢复力度仍然较弱。 表 1：PMI 非制造业 1 月数据（50.0 表示与上月相比持平） | 指标 | 本月 | 环比值 | 上月环比值 | 同比值 | 上月同比值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 经营活动状况 | 49.4 | -0.8 | 0.7 | -0.8 | -2 | | 新订单（业务需 | 46.1 | -1.2 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -1.4 | | 求） | | | | | | | 收费价格 | 48.8 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.8 | | 中间投入价格 | 50 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 | | 国（境）外新订 | 46.9 | -0.6 | ...

分析报告·策略 中采策略 20260123： 资金面宽松，新钱不断累积。我司预测人民币年底年初破 7 也成 为现实。 42 如期而至，调整过程未结束 2026 年 01 月 23 日 中采策略 此前中采预判 2026 年初 4200 压力位+成长占优，如今皆如期而 至，权益资产调整。近日反弹结果如何？尤其格陵兰风波发酵+缓和， 全球股债汇三杀后企稳，未来如何全球关注。我们仍由四面一体总结 观点如下。 目前调整既有外部原因更多是内部原因，4200 为长期压力位，深 度调整，目前位置反弹不是今年主升浪，有待进一步夯实底部之后重 启上行。 基本面：内暖外韧，支撑坚实 国内经济延续稳步修复。过去中采预测价格缓慢回升，反内卷终 将迎来需求与价格缠绕上升，且中国制造业 PMI 将于 2 月出现实质底 部。 2025 年 12 月 CPI 同比回升至 1.2%，PPI 同比转正至 0.5%，企业 营收实质性修复，工业企业利润降幅持续收窄，上市公司盈利底得到 进一步筑牢。同时，居民消费场景持续恢复，社零总额同比增速稳步 提升，消费对经济增长的拉动作用持续增强。 海外方面，美国 2025 年四季度 GDP 增速超预期达到 2. ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery in the overall industry, with consumer goods leading the major categories [1] Core Insights - The national PMI for December is 50.1, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the recent average [1][3] - The production index has rebounded to 51.7, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points, while the new orders index has risen to 50.8, up by 1.6 percentage points [4][9] - The highest absolute values among industries this month are in pharmaceuticals, clothing, transportation, and communication, while the highest month-on-month increases are seen in petroleum, clothing, and timber [1][3] Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI index stands at 50.1, with 4 industries above 50 and 11 below [3] - The highest PMI is in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector at 58.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 40.7 [3] New Orders Index - The new orders index is at 50.8, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [4] - The highest new orders index is also in pharmaceuticals at 62.5, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 35.7 [5][6] Profit Trend Index - The profit trend index for manufacturing is -2.3, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points [7] - The highest profit trend index is in the automotive manufacturing sector at 9.3, while the lowest is in non-ferrous metal smelting at -25 [7][10] Production Index - The production index is at 51.7, with 5 industries above 50 and 9 below [9] - The highest production index is in the textile and apparel sector at 67.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 38.9 [9] Purchase Price Index - The purchase price index is at 53.1, down by 0.5 percentage points from last month [13] - The highest purchase price index is in non-ferrous metal smelting at 68.8, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 32.1 [13][14] Finished Goods Inventory Index - The finished goods inventory index is at 48.2, with 4 industries above 50 and 10 below [17] - The highest inventory index is in pharmaceuticals at 55, while the lowest is in metal products at 31.3 [17] Export Orders Index - The export orders index is at 49, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [18] - The highest export orders index is in textiles at 62.5, while the lowest is in agricultural products at 33.3 [19][22]

Market Overview - Gold prices reached historical highs in October, driven by increased risk aversion due to multiple factors including U.S. government shutdown and Fed rate cut expectations[5] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of at least $18 billion, with potential permanent losses of up to $14 billion if it continues[8] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has led to a decline in gold prices as risk demand decreases[11] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on October 29, marking the fifth cut since September 2024[15] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, increasing uncertainty around future monetary policy[17] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped to 67.8% following Powell's comments, reflecting market skepticism about aggressive easing[18] Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand leading the growth, particularly through ETFs which saw inflows of 222 tons, amounting to $26 billion[28] - Central banks continued to increase gold reserves, with China's central bank adding 5 tons in Q3, maintaining a total of 2,304 tons[28] - The World Gold Council reported that Q3 2025 saw a 44% year-on-year increase in total demand value, reaching $146 billion[28]

Economic Performance - In 2024, Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 9.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, surpassing the national growth rate by 0.7 percentage points[2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) grew by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 15.1% and high-tech industry investment rising by 15.9%[3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.8 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with online retail sales at 754.3 billion yuan, up 7.8%[3] Financial Sector Performance - The total social financing scale in Shandong reached 23.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%[62] - New loans amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, exceeding the national average by 1.8 percentage points[44] - The balance of debt financing tools issued by enterprises was 622.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-on-year[66] Employment and Income - Urban employment increased by 1.245 million, achieving 113.2% of the annual target, while per capita disposable income rose by 5.5%[34] - The rural per capita disposable income growth rate outpaced that of urban residents, indicating a positive trend in rural economic conditions[34] Price Stability - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, with food prices declining by 0.5% and non-food prices increasing by 0.4%[35] - The industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year[35] Financial Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector was 1.15%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points, marking six consecutive years of decline[59] - The provision coverage ratio reached 276.6%, indicating enhanced risk resistance capabilities within the banking institutions[59]

Economic Performance - Shanghai's GDP reached 5.4 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%[2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.8%, with industrial investment showing a strong increase of 11.1%[3] - Total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, amounting to 17,940 billion yuan[3] Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume reached 4.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%[3] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 4.2%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year[3] - Per capita disposable income in Shanghai increased by 4.2%, reaching 88,366 yuan[43] Financial Sector Development - The balance of deposits and loans reached 22.0 trillion yuan and 12.3 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.7% and 9.8%[4] - New loans for small and micro enterprises had a weighted average interest rate of 3.25%, down by 0.37 percentage points year-on-year[5] - The social financing scale increased by 10,612 billion yuan, exceeding the previous year by 3,201 billion yuan[5] Industrial Growth - The total industrial output value was 39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[3] - The added value of strategic emerging industries reached 17,201 billion yuan, growing by 1.8%[3] - The three leading industries (integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence) achieved a combined output value of 4,618 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.8%[3]

Report Date - The report is dated July 23, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined on the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract down 0.11% and the open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates fluctuated, and key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad changed. The external "equal - tariff" policy increased global economic uncertainty, and the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy, causing increased volatility in treasury bond futures prices under the short - term improvement in market risk appetite [2][3] Key Points by Category Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally fell on the previous trading day, with T2509 down 0.11%, TS2509 down 0.01%, TF2509 down 0.07%, etc. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of TS2509 decreased by 2,462, TF2509 decreased by 3,177, while T2509 increased by 1,115. The trading volume of each contract also showed different changes [2] - **Spread Changes**: The inter - delivery spread of TS2509 decreased from - 0.068 to - 0.078, TF2509 decreased from - 0.070 to - 0.085, and T2509 decreased from - 0.040 to - 0.060 [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Domestic Short - term Rates**: SHIBOR overnight decreased by 4.9bp to 1.3170, SHIBOR 7 - day decreased by 1.5bp to 1.4620, DR001 decreased by 4.13bp to 1.3599, etc. [2] Spot Market - Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: The 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 1.43bp to 1.69%, the 5Y increased by 1.39bp to 1.56%, and the 2Y decreased by 0.24bp to 1.39% [2] - **Yield Spread**: The 10 - 2Y treasury bond yield spread was 27.76bp [2] Overseas Market - Key - term Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 3bp to 4.35%, the German 10Y decreased by 2bp to 2.680%, and the Japanese 10Y decreased by 1.8bp to 1.510% [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 22, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, while 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [3] - **Real Estate Loans**: At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [3] - **Foreign Investment Policy**: The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to fully cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in domestic reinvestment nationwide [3] - **International Events**: Trump announced a large - scale agreement with Japan, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible discussions on China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran in the new round of Sino - US negotiations [3] Industry Information - **Domestic Money Market Rates**: On July 22, most domestic money market rates declined, such as the 1 - day silver inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average rate down 4.65bp to 1.3144% [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US treasury bond yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield down 2.31bp to 3.8292% and the 10 - year yield down 3.17bp to 4.344% [3] Market Comments and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: The long - end of domestic treasury bonds continued to decline, the central bank's open - market operations continued to have a net withdrawal, and the Shibor short - end varieties declined collectively. The US consumer confidence index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was at a five - month low. The Fed was under pressure to cut interest rates [3] - **Economic Data**: The second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with industrial added value, exports, and financial data better than expected, while consumption, investment, and real estate investment growth rates declined [3] - **Market Outlook**: The external "equal - tariff" policy increased global economic uncertainty, the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the prices of treasury bond futures would be more volatile [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the digital finance industry, projecting significant growth in market size driven by policy support and technological advancements [11][12][16]. Core Insights - Digital finance is positioned as a core driver of transformation and innovation within the financial sector, with its strategic importance highlighted by recent governmental focus [3][4]. - The market size of China's digital finance is expected to reach 10 trillion yuan by 2025 and 20 trillion yuan by 2030, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 19% [11][15]. - The integration of emerging technologies such as AI, blockchain, and cloud computing is accelerating the development of digital finance, leading to new business models and enhanced operational efficiencies [11][16]. Summary by Sections Digital Finance Development - Digital finance has evolved through three main phases: the nascent stage (1990-2000), the innovation phase (2000-2015), and the integration phase (2016-present), with significant advancements in technology driving its growth [4][5]. - The Chinese government has issued clear policy guidelines to promote the application of AI and blockchain in finance, enhancing collaboration between financial institutions and tech companies [5][6]. Current Market Status - In 2024, the core industries of the digital economy are expected to account for 10% of GDP, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and AI [6]. - The digital economy's data market is projected to grow, with a 30% increase in transaction volume, reaching over 160 billion yuan [6][7]. - Commercial banks are leading the digital finance development through various strategies, including credit provision and risk management [7][8]. Investment Trends - Despite a slight decline in market activity, venture capital continues to support the digital economy, with early-stage financing remaining a focus [8][9]. - The report notes a shift in private equity and venture capital strategies towards ecosystem reconstruction, emphasizing collaboration with leading tech firms [8][10]. Future Outlook - The future of digital finance is characterized by precise policy guidance, accelerated capital accumulation, and a significant market scale transition [13][16]. - The integration of advanced technologies is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the financial industry, creating substantial growth opportunities [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the banking sector, indicating an expected investment return that will exceed the CSI 300 Index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the government's rapid leverage is being used to offset weak demand in the real economy, with a notable increase in government bond issuance supporting social financing [11][3]. - The effective financing demand remains insufficient, with a significant decline in new loans for manufacturing and small micro-enterprises, indicating a reliance on state-owned enterprises and politically connected sectors for credit growth [11][12]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from structural leverage, particularly in state-owned banks, as they capture market share from smaller banks amid a challenging economic environment [12]. Summary by Sections Credit and Social Financing - In February 2025, new credit amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion yuan, while new social financing reached 2.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 736.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - The first two months of 2025 saw a total of 6.22 trillion yuan in new real credit, a decrease of 854.4 billion yuan year-on-year, with weak performance across various loan categories [1][2]. Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of new government bonds accelerated significantly in February 2025, totaling 1.7 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The total new government bonds issued in the first two months of 2025 reached 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.49 trillion yuan, making government bonds a major contributor to social financing growth [3]. Banking Sector Dynamics - The distribution of new credit in January 2025 showed that large state-owned banks accounted for 57.1% of new credit, with this share increasing to 77% in February 2025, indicating a trend towards larger banks dominating credit issuance [2]. - The report suggests that the banking sector, particularly state-owned banks, will continue to benefit from structural changes in financing demand, especially as they expand their market share in economically developed regions [12].