Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.0 and 7.3 in June 2025, influenced by various domestic and international factors, including U.S. economic uncertainty and global monetary policy trends [6][7]. Market Review - In May 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1722 to 7.2461, with the onshore rate between 7.1843 and 7.2461, the central parity rate between 7.1833 and 7.2095, and the offshore rate between 7.1722 and 7.2437 [3][4]. - Key factors affecting the RMB exchange rate included the easing of high tariffs during the U.S.-China trade talks, Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, and significant increases in Japanese long-term bond yields [3][4]. - The Bank of England and the Bank of Korea both announced interest rate cuts in May, contributing to a global trend of monetary easing [3]. Domestic Factors - China's economy remained relatively stable amid global high tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with the central bank lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - Following the U.S.-China trade talks, several international investment banks raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with UBS increasing its forecast from 3.4% to between 3.7% and 4.0% [4]. Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies may lead to short-term shocks to the U.S. economy, with the OECD lowering its U.S. GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.6% [6]. - The potential for continued monetary easing in major global economies, including the Eurozone, may support the RMB [6]. - However, concerns over rising inflation due to U.S. tariff policies may lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts, which could negatively impact the RMB [6][7].

丨2025年5月19日 星期一丨 NO.3穆迪下调美国主权信用评级 据央视新闻，国际信用评级机构穆迪16日宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将 美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 点评：穆迪发布公告说，评级下调反映出过去十多年来美国政府债务和利息支付比例升至显著高于拥有 类似评级国家的水平。穆迪认为，持续的大规模财政赤字将进一步推高政府债务和利息支出负担。与美 国以往以及其他高评级主权国家相比，美国财政状况很可能恶化。 NO.4国际金价一个月下跌近10% NO.1 财政部、金融监管总局：提高银行函证数字化比例，推动规模化应用场景落地 5月16日，财政部、金融监管总局发布关于加快推动银行函证数字化发展的通知。总体要求：围绕加快 银行函证数字化发展，立足建设安全、便捷、高效、经济的银行函证体系，坚持安全第一，效益优先， 通过夯实发展基础、提升工作效能、创新方式手段，增加接入银行函证平台的主体数量，提高银行函证 数字化比例，推动规模化应用场景落地。 点评：该通知对金融科技板块是利好。银行函证数字化是金融信息化的重要一环，此举将推动银行与科 技 ...