自美联储上周宣布降息后，多个国家央行跟进降息。 9月23日，瑞典央行宣布将政策利率下调25个基点至1.75%。这是瑞典央行年内第四次降息。自2024年5月开启降息周期后，瑞典央行至今已降息8次，政 策利率从4%下调至1.75%。 根据瑞典央行发布的声明，降息是为了进一步支持经济活动并在中期内将通胀稳定在目标水平，如果通胀和经济活动前景保持不变，预计政策利率将在未 来一段时间内保持在这一水平。瑞典央行的利率路径预示，到2028年底将不再降息。 瑞典8月份通胀仍然维持在高位，但剔除能源价格的核心通胀有所下降，接近6月份货币政策报告的预测。瑞典央行认为，随着企业将商品价格下降，以及 瑞典克朗走强，当前的通胀水平将不会长时间持续。此外，政府宣布的减税措施将在明年暂时减缓通胀，但不会对通胀压力产生实质性影响。 瑞典统计局数据显示，8月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨1.1%，高于7月的0.8%，为连续第六个月上升，达到六个月来最高水平，与9月4日公布的初步预 估一致。但瑞典央行在9月的货币政策报告中，预计全年通胀仅有0.8%，而国内生产总值(GDP)仅增长0.9%，相比6月货币政策报告全年1.2%的增长大幅下 调。 瑞 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is under significant pressure, facing high national debt, elevated unemployment rates, and rising prices, leading to speculation about an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since January of this year [1] Federal Reserve Actions - During the meeting, all 11 voting members supported the rate cut, with only the newly appointed member advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure aimed at addressing downward pressure on the U.S. job market, as August's non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [3] Market Reactions - The rate cut signals a preemptive response to the U.S. economic downturn, with implications for global asset prices, capital flows, and monetary policy rhythms in other countries, particularly affecting the Chinese A-share market [5] - The consensus within the Federal Reserve indicates a stronger agreement on further rate cuts, with the number of members supporting three cuts this year increasing from 2 to 9 since June 2024 [6] Capital Flows and A-share Market - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the rebalancing of global capital, with passive fund inflows from Northbound capital reaching $3.684 billion in August, a significant increase from $313 million in July [8] - Although active funds are still experiencing outflows, the scale of these outflows has narrowed considerably, indicating a growing attractiveness of RMB assets [8] Policy Measures in China - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a series of measures in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Financial Regulatory Bureau, including rate cuts and adjustments to mortgage policies, signaling a commitment to stabilize market expectations [9] - The PBOC's recent actions provide more flexibility in monetary policy, especially following the Fed's rate cut, which could further support the A-share market [9] Export and Manufacturing Outlook - China's exports grew by 12.3% in March, although this rate fell to 4.4% in August, maintaining a medium-speed growth trend, which is crucial for stabilizing growth [11] - The global trend of interest rate cuts is expected to improve the external demand environment, supporting the profitability outlook for Chinese manufacturing in the coming months [11] Sector-Specific Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from a weaker dollar and heightened risk aversion, with prices for gold and copper continuing to rise [13] - The brokerage sector is seeing improved profitability due to increased market trading activity, while sectors like computing hardware, robotics, and solid-state batteries are performing well under the dual drivers of policy support and liquidity [14]

黄金V型反转，一柱擎天，上演惊天逆袭。多空争夺后，再次延续破高，大涨45美金，再战3400关口。 今天的走势 昨晚快涨快跌，多空激烈争夺后。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，特朗普继续进攻美联储，上周鲍威尔认怂，依然没有躲过特朗普的追讨，这次又开始对准了美 联储理事库克，继续干预美联储内部的决策，从解决内部人员开始，一步步冲击美联储独立性，美主权 信用风险升温，美债收益率走强，利好黄金逆袭。 再次上破，到今天最高3395。 再次回落调整，下方再穿3380的位置。 下方看3373位置，看反弹的机会。 上方延续，再破高，面临3400的关口。 再次延续，看涨延续，上看3438的阻力。 不过，处在3400下方，再次回调。 下方跌破了3373的位置，继续看到3350的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，到本月临近尾声，迎来连续4个月横盘。而且整体围绕3300关口，不断高位调整。本 月依然不改震荡格局，大范围内多空争夺了4个月，随时大幅突破，多空迎最后决战。 操作方面，黄金逆袭后，延续多头，看反弹延续，关注3373和3350做多的机会。此外，黄金上方面临关 键阻力区域，关注3400和3438做空的机会。 另外一方面，特朗普本性不改，万税爷 ...

来源：经济观察网 作者 苏剑 2025年7月，人民币汇率震荡前行，总体在7.1385至7.2123区间内震荡升值。全球主要经济体及国家暂停降息，日债收益率再度上涨潜在风险犹存，美国最新 经济数据显示通胀率上行，就业数据波动较大，中国经济、社会走势相对平稳等是影响7月美元兑人民币汇率走势的主要因素。展望未来，中国综合国际地 位提升，提高了中国资产的吸引力，美债收益率居高不下，增加了市场对日债危机外溢影响美元走势的担心，但近期美国通胀率上行，美联储主席鲍威尔继 续鹰派言论，或导致短期内全球降息潮走势生变，预计2025年8月人民币汇率在7.10～7.25区间双向波动震荡前行。 一、市场回顾 2025年7月，人民币汇率震荡前行，总体7.1385至7.2123区间内震荡升值。其中，人民币在岸汇率在7.1610至7.1930间波动；人民币中间价在7.1385至7.1546间 波动；人民币离岸汇率则是在7.1520至7.2123间波动。国际方面，第一，7月全球主要国家暂停降息，降息潮按下暂停键。7月31日，美联储公布将基准利率 维持在4.25%—4.50%区间不变，2025年以来已连续五次议息会议保持基准利率不变；7月24 ...

Group 1 - President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but several factors hinder this, including the need for consensus among the Federal Reserve Board members and the Fed's commitment to independence from political influence [2] - The recent surge in the stock market has led to early termination of several financial products linked to stock indices, allowing investors to lock in profits but also presenting challenges in reallocating funds [2] - International oil prices have seen a significant drop, with NYMEX WTI crude falling over 2% and ICE Brent crude nearly 2%, influenced by OPEC's discussions on production adjustments [2] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, China's automotive industry reported a profit margin of only 5%, with the total profit from 30 million vehicles being less than that of Toyota's 9 million vehicles, highlighting the competitive challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers [3] - Bitcoin reached a historic high of $112,000, marking a 3% increase in a single day, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 19%, amidst mixed views from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation and potential interest rate cuts [3] - The basic pension for retirees will increase by 2% starting January 1, 2025, aimed at benefiting low- to middle-income groups, reflecting a comprehensive adjustment considering price and wage factors [3] Group 3 - The Chinese government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on reducing burdens for enterprises and enhancing loan support, particularly for recent graduates and migrant workers [4] - The recent "anti-involution" measures proposed by the Central Financial Committee are expected to impact the stock market, with analysts suggesting that the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding policy implementation and capacity adjustments [5] - A significant financial scandal involving the company 瑞斯康达 has emerged, with allegations of inflating revenues by approximately 6.32 billion yuan and net profits by about 1.17 billion yuan, leading to a sharp decline in the company's stock price [5]

Group 1 - The central bank is likely to resume purchasing government bonds next month, indicating a potential liquidity injection into the market [2][7]. - The central bank's bond purchases are equivalent to "printing money," as it increases the base currency by buying bonds from banks [3][4]. - Since August of last year, the central bank has already injected 1 trillion yuan through bond purchases over five months [5]. Group 2 - Recent actions by major state-owned banks, which have aggressively purchased short-term government bonds, signal that the central bank is preparing to inject liquidity [8]. - Despite interest rate cuts by the central bank, government bond yields have increased, raising the cost of issuing new bonds [10][11]. - The central bank's strategy to stabilize bond yields involves purchasing bonds to drive prices up, thereby lowering interest rates for the government [12][13]. Group 3 - The central bank's intention to buy bonds is supported by its May report, which indicated a readiness to act [14]. - Global trends show a potential wave of interest rate cuts, with several central banks expected to lower rates soon, reducing the hesitation for the central bank to act [16][17]. - Economic pressures, including insufficient liquidity and market stagnation, necessitate the central bank's intervention through bond purchases [20]. Group 4 - The central bank's previous reliance on short-term tools like reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities is shifting towards long-term bond purchases for more stable liquidity [22][23]. - The effectiveness of monetary easing through bond purchases may take time to reflect in the market, and the impact on inflation is uncertain [25][26]. - The current economic environment suggests that without inflationary pressures, significant price increases in investments are unlikely [28]. Group 5 - The volatility in commodity and capital markets is expected to continue due to low liquidity and unstable funding [29]. - A recommendation is made to avoid heavy investments in capital markets or commodities, focusing instead on preserving capital and seeking stable, low-volatility returns [30][31].

Group 1 - The central bank is likely to resume purchasing government bonds next month, indicating a potential liquidity injection into the market [2][7] - The central bank's bond purchases are equivalent to printing money, which increases the base currency and provides liquidity to the banking system [3][4] - Since August of last year, the central bank has already injected 1 trillion yuan through bond purchases over five months [5] Group 2 - Recent actions by major state-owned banks, which have aggressively purchased short-term government bonds, signal that the central bank is preparing to inject liquidity [8] - Despite interest rate cuts by the central bank, government bond yields have increased, indicating rising borrowing costs for the government [10][11] - The central bank's strategy to stabilize bond yields involves purchasing bonds to drive up their prices, thereby lowering the interest rates on new issuances [12][13] Group 3 - The central bank's intention to buy bonds is supported by its May report, which indicated a readiness to act [14] - Global trends show a potential wave of interest rate cuts, with many central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, expected to lower rates soon [16][17] - Economic pressures, including insufficient liquidity and market stagnation, necessitate the central bank's intervention through bond purchases [20] Group 4 - The central bank's previous reliance on short-term tools like reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities is shifting towards long-term bond purchases for more stable liquidity [22][23] - The effectiveness of monetary easing through bond purchases may take time to reflect in the market, and the impact on individual investors may be limited [25][26] - The current economic environment, characterized by global recessionary pressures, suggests that inflation is unlikely to emerge despite liquidity injections [24][28] Group 5 - The investment landscape is expected to be volatile, with a tendency for short-term trading rather than stable long-term investments [29][30] - Investors are advised to prioritize capital preservation and consider stable, low-volatility investment options, such as bank deposits or medium-term assets [31]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, marking the lowest growth since February, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months [1][3] - The revisions of March and April's non-farm payroll data were down by a total of 95,000, indicating potential weakness in the U.S. labor market amid trade policy uncertainties and slowing economic growth [1][2] - President Trump has called for a one percentage point reduction in the federal funds rate, emphasizing that a competent Federal Reserve chair would lower interest rates [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for three consecutive meetings, with officials expressing concerns over the impact of trade policies and inflation levels [3][4] - Other countries have taken different actions regarding interest rates, with the Bank of India lowering its benchmark rate to 5.5%, the lowest since August 2022, and the Russian central bank reducing its rate to 20% amid economic challenges [4][5] - The European Central Bank has cut key rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth reduction since last June, with current inflation rates near the mid-term target of 2% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.0 and 7.3 in June 2025, influenced by various domestic and international factors, including U.S. economic uncertainty and global monetary policy trends [6][7]. Market Review - In May 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1722 to 7.2461, with the onshore rate between 7.1843 and 7.2461, the central parity rate between 7.1833 and 7.2095, and the offshore rate between 7.1722 and 7.2437 [3][4]. - Key factors affecting the RMB exchange rate included the easing of high tariffs during the U.S.-China trade talks, Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, and significant increases in Japanese long-term bond yields [3][4]. - The Bank of England and the Bank of Korea both announced interest rate cuts in May, contributing to a global trend of monetary easing [3]. Domestic Factors - China's economy remained relatively stable amid global high tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with the central bank lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - Following the U.S.-China trade talks, several international investment banks raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with UBS increasing its forecast from 3.4% to between 3.7% and 4.0% [4]. Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies may lead to short-term shocks to the U.S. economy, with the OECD lowering its U.S. GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.6% [6]. - The potential for continued monetary easing in major global economies, including the Eurozone, may support the RMB [6]. - However, concerns over rising inflation due to U.S. tariff policies may lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts, which could negatively impact the RMB [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are in a continuous wave of interest rate cuts, with various countries like Egypt, Australia, and Canada already taking action, driven by a complex interplay of factors including slowing economic growth and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The global economic growth forecast has been revised down from 3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, influenced by rising trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts affecting energy supply chains [1]. - The recent decline in inflation has created space for policy shifts, allowing central banks to lower interest rates [1]. Group 2: Trading Opportunities - The interest rate cut cycle presents three major trading opportunities: - Revaluation of interest-sensitive assets, particularly benefiting the real estate and manufacturing sectors, with a noted lag of 3-6 months for mortgage rates to impact home sales [3]. - Structural market trends in equities, where technology stocks typically outperform in early rate cut phases, while energy stocks may underperform due to weakened demand expectations [3]. - Arbitrage opportunities in commodities, with gold's hedging function becoming more pronounced during periods of declining real interest rates [3]. Group 3: Risks in the Current Environment - Four core risks accompany the interest rate cut environment: - The lag in policy transmission may lead to a delayed response from the real economy to rate cuts [4]. - Debt risks may escalate as emerging markets increase leverage, potentially leading to credit rating downgrades and widening credit spreads [4]. - An escalation in currency wars could arise if the dollar index breaches critical levels, prompting currency interventions and market volatility [4]. - The risk of inflation resurgence if demand rebounds too quickly due to rapid rate cuts [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - DLSM Forex platform offers a comprehensive risk management framework, including: - Application of macro hedging tools like interest rate options and currency corridor strategies to lock in profits and mitigate risks [4]. - Credit screening of micro-level entities, focusing on cash flow coverage ratios to avoid high-leverage operations [4]. - Dynamic rebalancing of asset portfolios based on macroeconomic data adjustments to respond to market changes [4][5]. Group 5: Impact of AI Revolution - The AI revolution is reshaping trading logic, with significant capital expenditure increases in leading AI companies like Nvidia and TSMC, showing a notable negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields [5]. - However, there are concerns regarding technological iteration risks and regulatory uncertainties that need to be monitored [5].