此次降息，是埃及央行2025年内的第五次降息。埃及央行称，此举反映了委员会在上次会议以来对最新通胀形势及其前景的评估，符合普遍预期。 值得一提的是，据不完全统计，近期已有多国央行宣布降息。 白银续创历史新高。 据央视新闻，当地时间12月25日，埃及央行在当天召开的货币政策委员会会议上决定，将基准利率下调100个基点。此次降息后，存款利率降至20%，贷 款利率降至21%。 当地时间12月19日，俄罗斯央行宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%。这是俄央行连续第五次降息。俄罗斯央行董事会下次会议将于2026年2月13日举 行，届时将审议基准利率的后续调整。 俄罗斯央行表示，11月份，物价涨幅的持续性指标有所回落。与此同时，近几个月通胀预期略有上升。俄罗斯央行将维持必要的紧缩货币政策，以使通胀 率恢复至目标水平。未来基准利率决策，将取决于俄国内通胀放缓的可持续性以及通胀预期的动态变化。俄罗斯央行称，俄罗斯整体经济活动继续保持温 和增长，但各行业增长速度不均衡。 当地时间12月18日，英国央行宣布，将基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%。这是英国央行本年度第四次降息。英国央行在声明中指出，尽管11月消费者价格 指数同比 ...

白银续创历史新高。 据央视新闻，当地时间12月25日，埃及央行在当天召开的货币政策委员会会议上决定，将基准利率下调100个基点。此次降息后，存款利率 降至20%，贷款利率降至21%。 此次降息，是埃及央行2025年内的第五次降息。埃及央行称，此举反映了委员会在上次会议以来对最新通胀形势及其前景的评估，符合普 遍预期。 值得一提的是，据不完全统计，近期已有多国央行宣布降息。 在全球新一轮降息潮的推动下，白银价格持续上涨。 12月26日，国际银价大幅高开，截至发稿，伦敦银现涨近2%，COMEX白银涨超2%，均创盘中历史新高。 当地时间12月19日，俄罗斯央行宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%。这是俄央行连续第五次降息。俄罗斯央行董事会下次会议将于 2026年2月13日举行，届时将审议基准利率的后续调整。 俄罗斯央行表示，11月份，物价涨幅的持续性指标有所回落。与此同时，近几个月通胀预期略有上升。俄罗斯央行将维持必要的紧缩货币 政策，以使通胀率恢复至目标水平。未来基准利率决策，将取决于俄国内通胀放缓的可持续性以及通胀预期的动态变化。俄罗斯央行称，俄 罗斯整体经济活动继续保持温和增长，但各行业增长速度不均衡。 当 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Rate Cuts - The Central Bank of Egypt lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 20% for deposits and 21% for loans, marking the fifth rate cut in 2025 [1][10] - The Central Bank of Russia reduced its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 16%, also the fifth consecutive cut, with the next meeting scheduled for February 2026 [1][11] - The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the fourth cut this year, amid economic weakness and a drop in the consumer price index to 3.2% [2][12] - The Bank of Mexico lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 7%, marking the twelfth consecutive cut, while indicating a cautious approach to future adjustments [2][12] - The Central Bank of Chile reduced its benchmark rate from 4.75% to 4.5% as inflation slowed towards the target of 3% [3][12] - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut with a total reduction of 75 basis points [3][13] Group 2: Silver and Gold Price Movements - Silver prices surged to historical highs, with international silver prices rising nearly 2% and COMEX silver increasing over 2% [4][14] - The Shanghai silver night market saw a significant increase of 5.5%, surpassing 18,000 yuan per kilogram [6][14] - The international gold price also rose, with London gold exceeding $4,500 per ounce, up 0.53%, and COMEX gold increasing by 0.55% to $4,528 per ounce [8][14] Group 3: Fund Adjustments - Guotou UBS Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund announced a reduction in the minimum investment amount for A-class shares from 500 yuan to 100 yuan, while suspending subscriptions for C-class shares [8][18] - The fund's secondary market closing price was 2.804 yuan, a 45% increase compared to the net asset value of 1.9278 yuan on December 24 [8][18]

北京时间20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体拉升，纷纷飘红，21日上午又集体跳水。CoinGlass 数据显示， 截至发稿，近24小时内，加密货币共有超6.7万人爆仓。 事实上，美股已连涨2天，随着节日临近，多位市场人士对行情抱有期待。 究其原因，有分析师表示，经济数据巩固了人们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。 据新华社，美国 总统 特朗普 17日晚在对全国发表电视讲话时表示，下一任美联储 主席 提名人选 即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支持"大幅"降低利率。 图片来源：CoinGlass "我即将宣布我们的下一任美联储 主席 。" 特朗普 说，"这个人支持大幅降低利率，抵押还款会进 一步下降。" 美国联邦储备委员会10日宣布降息，但 特朗普 吐槽降息幅度"过小"，称"美国的利率就该是全球 最低的"。 据多家媒体报道， 特朗普 目前仍在对候选人进行考察，他在17日面试了美联储理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒。 12日， 特朗普 在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储 主席 职 位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 特朗普 说，希望联邦基金利率 一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助 ...

（来源：中国商报） 北京时间12月20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体拉升，纷纷飘红。截至发稿，近24小时内，加密货币共有6.6万人爆仓。 事实上，美股已连涨2天，随着圣诞节的临近，多位市场人士对"圣诞节"行情抱有期待。究其原因，有分析师表示，经济数据巩固了人们对美联储将采取 降息策略的预期。 | 加密货币数据分析 | | | | | | | | | | Q | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 衍生品 | 现货 | 分类 | 代币解锁总览 | Memes | ETH SOL BSC Layer-1 | | AI AI Agents | Gan> | ☆ 显示自选 | 〜 筛选器 | 8 自定义 | HI | | | 排名 | 市种 | - - - - - - - - - | 价格(24h%) | 资金费率 | 24小时成交额 | 成交额(24h%) | 市值 | 持仓 持仓 持仓(1h%) | | 持仓(24h%) | | | 公 | 1 | B BTC | $88262. ...

文 | CFN 大河 年末岁尾，全球货币政策调整进入密集窗口期。12月中旬至19日，俄罗斯、英国、墨西哥、智利四国央行相继宣布降息，形成新一轮全球降息潮。从降息幅 度来看，俄罗斯降幅最大达50个基点，英、墨两国均为25个基点，智利则小幅下调25个基点；从政策延续性来看，俄罗斯为连续第五次降息，墨西哥更是开 启连续第十二次降息周期。这场覆盖欧、美、拉美多个经济体的降息行动，已迅速传导至金融市场，推动贵金属价格大幅飙升，同时引发市场对美联储后续 降息的强烈预期，全球金融市场的资产定价逻辑正迎来重构。 降息潮全景：四国政策联动，节奏与幅度各有差异 本次全球降息潮呈现出"集中落地、梯度推进"的特征，四国央行基于自身经济基本面与通胀态势，选择了差异化的降息节奏与幅度，共同勾勒出当前全球货 币政策宽松转向的清晰轮廓。 作为本次降息潮的收官者，俄罗斯央行于当地时间12月19日宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%，这是其自今年6月开启近三年首次降息以来的第五轮连 续下调。回溯其降息路径，俄罗斯央行从6月的21%高位起步，逐步降至当前16%，累计降息500个基点，政策宽松力度显著。俄央行在声明中强调，11月物 价涨幅持续性指 ...

Group 1 - The OECD predicts that major economies will end the current interest rate cut cycle by the end of 2026, indicating limited room for further policy easing despite slowing growth expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates only twice before the end of 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% throughout 2027 [2] - The OECD forecasts that the Eurozone and Canada will not further cut interest rates, while Japan will gradually tighten its monetary policy as local inflation stabilizes around 2% [2] Group 2 - The global economy has performed better than expected in resisting the impact of tariffs, with GDP growth projected at 3.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.9% in 2026, and rebounding to 3.1% in 2027 [3] - The increase in AI-related investments is credited with boosting industrial production in the US and many Asian economies [3] - The OECD has raised its growth forecast for the US in 2025 to 2%, up from a previous estimate of 1.8%, with a gradual reduction in reliance on AI [3] Group 3 - The OECD warns that a decline in optimism regarding AI could lead to sudden asset price revaluations, exacerbated by forced asset sales from non-bank financial institutions [4] - Governments are urged to address rising debt burdens during this relatively stable period, with only a few countries planning significant fiscal tightening in the next two years [4] - Countries like Germany have room to increase debt and maintain high defense spending for a period, but pressures from healthcare, care, and climate spending will eventually exhaust fiscal flexibility [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic resilience, tariff restructuring, and monetary policy shifts are central themes, with China's growth expected to be around 5% next year, supported by domestic demand recovery and export resilience [1][6]. Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is projected at approximately 2.7% for this year, slightly down from 2.8% last year, but still within a reasonable range [2]. - Global inflation has decreased to 2%, returning to pre-pandemic levels, while core inflation remains moderate [2]. Tariff Policies - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports has surged from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to about 15%, the highest level since the 1930s [3]. - The share of U.S. imports from China has dropped from 13% to 8%, while trade with Taiwan, Vietnam, Mexico, and Thailand has significantly increased [3]. Monetary Policy Trends - A global interest rate cut cycle is underway, with about 25 out of 30 major central banks implementing rate cuts this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates several times by the end of next year due to a weak labor market, while the European Central Bank plans two more rate cuts [4]. Employment and AI Impact - A new phenomenon termed "jobless prosperity" is emerging, where GDP growth is strong but employment data is weak [5]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on lower-skilled jobs is becoming evident, posing a long-term challenge for policymakers [5]. China's Economic Projections - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters has reached 5.2%, with a high likelihood of achieving the 5% growth target for the year [6]. - The growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with favorable factors such as a potential U.S.-China trade agreement [7]. Policy Framework - The fiscal policy is expected to be dominant, with a projected budget deficit rate of 4% and significant local government bond issuance to support economic growth [8]. - Structural policies will focus on boosting consumption, with subsidies and investments in key areas such as childcare and elderly care [9]. External Environment and Trade - Improved U.S.-China trade relations and potential tariff reductions are anticipated, with China's exports expected to grow by 13% in 2024 [9]. - China has found alternative export paths, which may provide a competitive advantage over ASEAN countries if some tariffs are lifted [9]. Capital Market Insights - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively, with 60% of the market being growth-oriented and a significant portion of profits linked to AI [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has accelerated its upward trend, with the current market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal reaching 817 RMB/ton, an increase of 47 RMB/ton week-on-week. The report suggests that the price could potentially rise to 931 RMB/ton based on profit recovery scenarios for power plants [2][6][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding cyclical trends over pinpointing absolute price peaks, highlighting a favorable environment for coal investments due to global monetary easing and a rebound in the coal cycle [2][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 4.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.71 percentage points. The thermal coal index rose by 4.84%, while the coking coal index increased by 1.87% [16][20] - As of November 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 817 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 47 RMB/ton. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1860 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a tightening supply due to production checks and increased winter demand, predicting that coal prices in Q4 may exceed expectations. It highlights the importance of monitoring winter storage and port inventory changes [6][17] - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 511.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% week-on-week, while coal supply increased slightly to 547.3 million tons [34] Price Projections - The report provides calculations indicating that if the profit margins for coal-fired power plants return to long-term averages, the acceptable market price for thermal coal could rise to 789 RMB/ton or even 931 RMB/ton under certain conditions [7][12] - The report also discusses the impact of upcoming capacity price adjustments in 2026, which could further influence coal pricing dynamics [7][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a comprehensive embrace of the coal sector's "Davis Double Play" bottom reversal trend, recommending a diversified selection of stocks based on different strategies: balanced, aggressive, and stable leaders [2][7]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is challenging due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high U.S. government debt, narrow credit spreads, high stock valuations, and significant risks in gold investments [1][9]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the appeal of sovereign bonds as a safe haven [1]. - Credit spreads are at a 20-year low, providing insufficient risk compensation for corporate bonds [1]. - The CAPE ratio for stocks is at a high of 40, indicating substantial potential for market corrections [1]. - Gold has seen a "vertical rise," but the risks associated with chasing high prices are notable [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - Recent data shows a significant outflow of $24.6 billion from cash assets into riskier assets, with $28.1 billion flowing into the stock market, including a record $10.4 billion into tech stocks [2]. - The gold market has experienced inflows of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical high [4]. - China's stock market saw its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, totaling $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite amid interest rate cut expectations [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The global stock market capitalization has surged by $20.8 trillion this year, driven by a global easing cycle [9]. - The "BIG" investment strategy proposed by Michael Hartnett emphasizes bonds, international markets, and gold as key areas of focus [10]. - Hartnett maintains a bullish outlook on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, predicting a drop in 30-year bond yields below 4% [11]. Group 4: International Markets - Hartnett is optimistic about international equities, forecasting the Hang Seng Index to exceed 33,000 points [13]. - The global EPS growth is projected at 9% over the next 12 months, surpassing market consensus [13]. - Excluding the U.S., the global stock market trades at a more attractive P/E ratio of 15 compared to the MSCI global index at 19.6 [13]. Group 5: Gold Outlook - Hartnett remains extremely bullish on gold, predicting prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by spring next year [15]. - Despite gold being labeled as a crowded trade, the allocation among high-net-worth clients and global fund managers remains low, suggesting room for growth [15]. - Major geopolitical easing or a significant rise in real interest rates are seen as potential threats to the ongoing bull market in gold [15].