证 券 研 究 报 告 仙乐健康（300791）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 经营稳中向好，关注 BFPC 优化 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报。2025 年 H1 实现营业总收入 20.4 亿元，同增 2.6%， 归母净利润 1.61 亿元，同增 4.3%，扣非归母净利润为 1.59 亿元，同增 3.3%； 单 Q2 实现营收 10.9 亿元，同增 4.7%，归母净利润 0.92 亿元，同增 1.1%，扣 非归母净利润为 0.94 亿元，同增 5.5%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,211 | 4,587 | 5,093 | 5,563 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.6% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 325 | 352 | 451 | 524 | | 同比增速(%) | 15.7% | 8.3% | 28.3% | 15.9% | | 每 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price of 13.5 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue decline has narrowed, and cost control has improved performance. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.532 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 23.43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 737 million CNY, down 17.34% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 1.741 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 11.51%, but a significant increase in net profit by 71.44% year-on-year [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2025 Half-Year Report**: - Operating revenue: 3.532 billion CNY, down 23.43% YoY - Net profit: 737 million CNY, down 17.34% YoY - Q2 revenue: 1.741 billion CNY, down 11.51% YoY - Q2 net profit: 282 million CNY, up 71.44% YoY [1][7] - **Financial Projections**: - 2025E total revenue: 6.271 billion CNY, down 8.3% YoY - 2025E net profit: 811 million CNY, up 24.3% YoY - EPS for 2025E: 0.48 CNY [2][7]. Sales and Cost Management - The company has seen a significant reduction in sales expense ratio, which decreased by 11 percentage points to 39.6% in Q2 2025. This improvement is attributed to efficient spending and a shift towards higher-margin products [7][8]. - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 68.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of premium products and improved online sales channel performance [7][8]. Market Outlook - The company plans to increase investment in the second half of 2025, with expectations for revenue to gradually improve. The strategy includes launching new products in key categories and focusing resources on profitable online channels [7][8]. - Despite a challenging external consumption environment, the company is expected to maintain a rational approach to spending, leading to a modest decline in annual revenue [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price of 13.5 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company continues to face revenue pressure, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 32% in Q1 2025. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and a reduction in foot traffic in offline channels [6][7]. - The net profit margin decline has narrowed, indicating potential operational improvements as cost control measures take effect. The company is expected to gradually recover as sales increase and the base effects diminish [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to be 6,838 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 7,172 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.9% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 653 million CNY, with a significant increase to 866 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 32.7% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to rise from 0.38 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28 in 2024 to 21 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings improve [2]. Operational Insights - **Sales Channels**: - Online sales have shown a slight recovery, while offline sales continue to struggle, with declines of 15.78% and 42.62% respectively in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: - The company has managed to reduce its sales expense ratio to 30.3%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in marketing expenditures [6][7]. - **Product Performance**: - The main brand and other product lines have experienced varying revenue impacts, with the domestic main brand seeing a decline of 36.37% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is implementing strategies to attract consumers back to offline channels through promotions and product sampling, while also focusing on maintaining profitability in online sales [6][7]. - The overall expectation is for gradual operational recovery starting from Q2 2025 as the company continues to execute its strategic adjustments [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price of 13.5 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company continues to face revenue pressure, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 32% in Q1 2025. The decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and reduced foot traffic in offline channels [6]. - The net profit margin decline has narrowed, indicating potential operational improvements as cost control measures take effect [6]. - The company is implementing strategies to attract consumer traffic back to offline channels and is focusing on maintaining profitability in online sales [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 6,838 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -27.3%. For 2025E, revenue is expected to increase to 7,172 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 4.9% [2]. - The net profit for 2024A is estimated at 653 million CNY, with a significant decline of -62.6%. However, it is expected to recover to 866 million CNY in 2025E, showing a growth rate of 32.7% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.38 CNY in 2024A to 0.51 CNY in 2025E [2]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 28 in 2024A to 21 in 2025E, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2]. Operational Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 68.7%, a slight decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and reduced scale effects from declining revenues [6]. - The sales expense ratio improved to 30.3%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management strategies [6]. - The company plans to launch more proactive measures in 2025 to enhance sales performance, particularly through new product introductions and targeted marketing strategies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Angel Yeast (600298) with a target price of 44 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The Q1 performance of Angel Yeast exceeded expectations, driven by strong overseas growth and stable domestic performance. The company reported a revenue of 3.794 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 370 million CNY, up 16.02% year-on-year [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement logic is being realized, breaking previous pessimistic expectations. The overseas market has become a core growth engine, with a projected double-digit revenue growth in the coming years [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15.197 billion CNY in 2024 to 21.307 billion CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 12.6%, 11.9%, and 11.3% respectively [3][14]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.325 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.179 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 4.3%, 14.7%, 23.4%, and 16.2% respectively [3][14]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.52 CNY in 2024 to 2.51 CNY in 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 19, 16, and 13 [3][14]. - **Market Performance**: - The current market capitalization is approximately 292.65 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 287.88 billion CNY [4][7]. Operational Insights - The report highlights that the company's Q1 gross margin was 25.97%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, despite some depreciation pressures from new projects in Egypt and Russia [7][8]. - The report notes that the company has restructured its domestic sales organization into three segments, which is expected to enhance business collaboration and efficiency in the long term [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 44 CNY, indicating a potential upside of over 30% from the current price of 33.69 CNY [2][3][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company is entering a new profit cycle, driven by significant cost reductions and a peak in depreciation, which will lead to at least two years of profit improvement. The company is positioned to become the global leader in the yeast market, with substantial growth opportunities in developing countries [2][7][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong pricing power, which allows it to increase prices during cost-up cycles, and the expected decline in sugar molasses costs, which will enhance profit margins [8][9][22]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million CNY) for the years 2024 to 2027 is as follows: 15,197 (2024), 17,110 (2025), 19,138 (2026), and 21,307 (2027), with year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 12.6%, 11.9%, and 11.3% respectively [3]. - The projected net profit (in million CNY) for the same period is: 1,325 (2024), 1,519 (2025), 1,876 (2026), and 2,179 (2027), with growth rates of 4.3%, 14.7%, 23.4%, and 16.2% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.52 CNY (2024), 1.75 CNY (2025), 2.16 CNY (2026), and 2.51 CNY (2027) [3]. Profit Cycle Analysis - The report discusses the profit cycle, indicating that the company is at the bottom of its profit cycle, with a clear path for improvement over the next two years due to falling costs and a peak in depreciation [8][9][14]. - The report quantifies the potential for profit improvement, estimating that gross margins could increase by at least 2.5 percentage points due to favorable sugar molasses pricing [8][9][10]. Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from accelerated overseas expansion, with a current global market share of approximately 20%, and significant growth potential in emerging markets [8][9][10]. - The report outlines the company's strategy for overseas market penetration, which includes establishing local subsidiaries and leveraging competitive pricing and service advantages [8][9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current price offers a good entry point for investors, given the expected improvement in profit margins and the long-term growth potential in both domestic and international markets [8][9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32.5 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a clear improvement path in response to adjustments, with a 2024 revenue of 4.211 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and a net profit of 325 million yuan, up 15.7% [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.65 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 47% [1]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing its core business and expanding into new retail markets, particularly in response to challenges in the domestic market [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Metrics**: - Total revenue: 4,211 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 17.6% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 325 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 15.7% - Earnings per share: 1.37 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 18 times [1][6]. - **Future Projections**: - 2025E revenue: 4,746 million yuan (growth of 12.7%) - 2025E net profit: 404 million yuan (growth of 24.4%) - 2026E revenue: 5,377 million yuan (growth of 13.3%) - 2026E net profit: 502 million yuan (growth of 24.2%) - 2027E revenue: 5,962 million yuan (growth of 10.9%) - 2027E net profit: 588 million yuan (growth of 17.0%) [1][10]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing a mixed performance across different regions, with strong growth in the Americas and Europe, while facing challenges in the domestic market due to weak demand from traditional customers [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market changes, particularly through organizational restructuring and team upgrades [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44 yuan [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.197 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.325 billion yuan, up 4.07% year-on-year [2]. - The fourth quarter (Q4) showed stable performance with a revenue of 4.285 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 371 million yuan, up 3.68% year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively divesting its sugar trading business, which has impacted overall revenue performance, while the yeast and deep processing segments continue to show strong growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the revenue breakdown by product showed yeast at 3.143 billion yuan (up 20.84%), sugar at 368 million yuan (down 40.40%), packaging at 103 million yuan (up 1.35%), and other businesses at 679 million yuan (up 18.25%) [6]. - The gross margin for Q4 was 24.15%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower sugar molasses costs and reduced shipping expenses [6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.55 yuan per share, totaling 477 million yuan, which is 36.05% of the net profit [2]. Market Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth target of over 10% for 2025, with overseas markets becoming the core growth engine, supported by capacity expansion [6]. - The report indicates that the domestic market is currently facing weak demand, but the medium-term operational outlook remains positive [6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.75 yuan, 2.16 yuan, and 2.51 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 16, and 14 [7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.519 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.7% [7]. Valuation - The current market capitalization is approximately 30.368 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 29.873 billion yuan [3]. - The report suggests that the recent market cap decline provides a good opportunity for investment, maintaining the target price of 44 yuan, which corresponds to a PE of about 25 for 2025 [6].