每周 一 景 ：上海浦东陆家嘴 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【农业】 周期破晓见曦，成长擎画新篇—— 农林牧渔展望 2026 行业报告 生猪养殖：政策、周期双驱动，产能逻辑催化。 1）价格：2026H1预计猪价延续低迷，行业延续低利润。2）产能：产能政策和周期调节，产能去化持续。3）负债降低，成本下降。关注成本改善、具备成 长性的生猪养殖企业。 禽养殖：白鸡供需静待修复，黄鸡需求或提升。 1）白鸡产业链价格陷入深度低迷，供需回归平衡尚需时间。2）黄鸡价格或将小幅修复，关注中华土鸡推广活动对黄鸡消费的带动作用。 牛养殖：养殖周期长，供给侧收缩推动价格上涨。 1）肉牛养殖周期长，我国肉牛养殖格局分散，散户行为影响大。2）2022-2024年的价格低位推动去化，2025年起出栏量环比下降，价格有望持续景气。 养殖后周期：饲料销量有望增长，龙头集中度提升。动保关注新品进展。 1）2026年养殖存栏量仍然较高，行业景气度持续向上，其中2026年上半年企业饲料销量增速预期高于下半年。2）动保需求受养殖低利润影响，2026年动 保景气度或承压，关注新品（如非洲猪瘟疫苗、宠物疫苗）进展。 种植：粮价有望稳中向上，自主可控，关 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - In H1 2025, the swine industry experienced profitability, with a focus on capacity reduction in H2 [2] - The average price of pork in Q2 2025 was 14.55 yuan/kg, down 3.1% quarter-on-quarter and 11.2% year-on-year [2] - Major companies like DeKang Agriculture, Lihua Co., Shennong Group, and Wens Foodstuff reported net profits exceeding 200 yuan per head in H1 2025 [2] - The supply pressure in H2 remains, but initial results from weight reduction efforts and seasonal consumption may limit further price declines [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - In H1 2025, the poultry industry faced low prices due to weak consumption and increased supply [3] - White feather chicken prices rebounded slightly in Q2 but still faced losses, while yellow chicken prices continued to decline [3] - The poultry industry is expected to see a price increase in H2 due to slight capacity reduction and seasonal demand [3] Group 3: Feed and Animal Health - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing upward trends in H1 2025, driven by recovery in livestock and aquaculture stocks [4] - Sales, revenue, and profit growth accelerated in Q2 2025 [4] - Continued recovery in livestock stocks is anticipated, supporting recommendations for feed and animal health companies [4] Group 4: Seed Industry - The seed industry is facing significant pressure with a severe oversupply situation, leading to increased return rates [5] - Despite challenges, new leading companies are achieving substantial growth driven by successful products like Kangnong Yumi 8009 [5] Group 5: Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector is seeing a steady increase in brand market share, with exports expected to gradually recover [6] - Companies with Southeast Asia and global factory layouts are showing more stable growth [6] - Domestic demand remains resilient, with leading companies enhancing market share through supply chain advantages and brand strength [6] Group 6: Fruit Industry - The fruit industry is experiencing differentiation across various segments, with blueberries emerging as a new consumer favorite [7] - Companies are expanding production and improving efficiency, leading to steady growth [7] - The processing segment benefits from stable raw material prices and strong export demand, while retail faces challenges [7]

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on agricultural investment opportunities driven by price increases in key products such as beef and grains, policy reforms in the supply side, and recovery in downstream demand [5] - The beef industry is expected to see a price upturn after a period of losses, with a projected industry capacity reduction exceeding 10% [5][12] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to experience a slight decline in supply in 2025, with a focus on high-quality leading enterprises due to supply-side policies [5][45] - Poultry farming is facing supply disruptions, but demand recovery is expected to improve the market [5][87] Livestock Industry - Global beef prices have started to rise again after two years of decline, with May prices reaching $6.62 per kg, a 13% year-on-year increase [12] - China's beef consumption is projected to grow, with a total consumption of 11.52 million tons in 2024, up 3.84% year-on-year [22] - The domestic beef supply is expected to decline significantly due to a drop in cattle inventory, with a forecasted reduction of over 10% [22][24] Dairy Industry - China's raw milk prices have been declining since mid-2021, with the average price at 3.04 yuan per kg as of June 13, 2024, down 7.88% year-on-year [33] - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant capacity reduction, with over 90% of the industry facing losses [33] - A potential recovery in milk prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply-side capacity continues to decrease [38] Pig Farming - The pig supply is expected to increase slightly in 2025, with a projected output of 703 million pigs in 2024, down 3.3% year-on-year [45] - The average price of pigs is forecasted to be around 14.5 yuan per kg for the year, reflecting a decrease in supply pressure [45][54] - The industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with average profits for self-breeding and self-raising operations improving significantly [54][67] Poultry Farming - The yellow-feathered chicken market is stabilizing, with a projected output of 3.34 billion birds in 2024, down 7.18% year-on-year [92] - The white-feathered chicken supply remains ample, with prices stable as the market awaits demand recovery [98] - Long-term demand for white-feathered chicken is expected to rise, supported by improved efficiency and domestic breed replacement [102] Feed and Grain - The total feed volume is expected to increase due to rising pig inventories and improved profitability in livestock farming [107] - Grain prices are projected to recover from recent lows, influenced by external factors such as weather and international relations [117] - The report emphasizes the importance of grain security and the potential impact of trade relations on domestic agricultural costs [117]

Group 1: Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is expected to achieve profitability in 2024/25 Q1, with a focus on waiting for a capacity inflection point in 2025 [2] - The average profit per head in the industry is projected to be 170/86 RMB in 2024/25 Q1, with leading companies exceeding 200 RMB per head in 2024 [2][3] - Despite profitability, the current capacity expansion is primarily led by low-cost listed companies, with expectations of steady increases in pig output and a forecasted average price range of 14-15 RMB per kilogram for the year [2][3] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken industry is experiencing high inventory levels, with chick prices increasing by 6-7% year-on-year, while broiler prices are expected to decline by 10-15% due to weak demand [3] - The yellow chicken sector is projected to see a slight decrease in output, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, but leading companies are improving profitability through cost reduction [3] - The overall supply of white and yellow chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with a focus on observing demand recovery and the impact of avian influenza [3] Group 3: Feed and Veterinary Industry - The feed and veterinary sectors are facing increased competition and declining profitability due to reduced downstream inventory and weak consumption in 2024 [4] - However, profitability in the aquaculture feed sector is expected to improve in the second half of 2024, with significant growth in pig feed profitability anticipated in 2025 Q1 [4] - The veterinary sector is also expected to see continued recovery in 2025, particularly in raw materials [4] Group 4: Pet Industry - The pet sector is experiencing robust growth driven by stable overseas orders, declining chicken costs, and the depreciation of the RMB, with domestic brands gaining market share [5] - The performance of the pet sector is expected to reach new highs in 2024/25 Q1, with continued growth anticipated in 2025 due to strong demand resilience and ongoing domestic brand replacement [5] - The pet economy is viewed as a scarce track with strong demand, and leading companies are expected to enhance market share through product innovation and brand development [5]