今日早参 2026 年 1 月 09 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首席研究 员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：景气拐点初现的驱动有哪些？ ——中观景气与战术配置 月报 12 月全行业景气指数拐点初现，与 PMI 超预期回升相印证。分板块看，上游 资源、公共产业、TMT、必选消费近 3 个月景气改善幅度居前：1）涨价驱 动品种：有色、煤炭、部分化工品、造纸、普钢等；2）AI 链深化：AI 应用 端进展提速，游戏、软件景气改善，算力端存储、被动元件等景气爬坡； 3）资本品和中间品：电新、自动化设备、工程机械等景气改善，由于 26 年 春节较晚，出口订单或前置；4）大众消费品：乳制品、啤酒、养殖等景气 回升；5）基建链：12 月建筑业 PMI 回升至荣枯线上方；6）独立景气周期 品种，如军工电子等。我们建议继续布局春季行情，成长和周期均衡配置 ...

Group 1 - The capital market has experienced a steady upward structural trend over the past six months, with companies benefiting from external demand showing outstanding stock performance [1] - Since April, manufacturing sentiment has declined due to external environmental fluctuations and adjustments in the domestic real estate market, but the long-term positive economic trend remains unchanged [1] - The domestic economy is characterized by a large scale and strong resilience, with domestic demand gradually becoming the main driver of economic growth, supported by improving fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significant achievements in high-quality development, with economic growth maintained within a reasonable range and an increase in total factor productivity [2] - The plan highlights the strategic importance of domestic demand-driven growth and the unique advantages of China's super-large market [2] - The focus on enhancing self-reliance in technology and fostering emerging industries, particularly in sectors like new energy, new materials, and aerospace, is crucial for long-term investment opportunities [2]