夯实高估值基础 对于2026年的宏观展望，金玥珏持积极看法，认为整体的环境仍然利好风险资产，其背后主要有三大因 素支撑。 首先，以美国为主的全球消费者和家庭资产负债表总体比较健康，为经济提供了稳定基础；其次，美联 储货币政策的路径日益清晰，预计今年到明年上半年大概率还有降息，整体对于风险资产是一个利好支 持的作用；最后，从财政刺激的角度来看，相关法案的效果预计将持续到明年，或为经济提供进一步提 振。 针对市场普遍担心的估值风险，金玥珏也给出了解读。她指出，估值的高低不能孤立看待，必须与企业 的盈利前景相结合进行分析。而摩根资产管理对于企业盈利的态度较为乐观，尤其看好AI新浪潮驱动 下的现金流稳定与盈利增长。 进入2025年第四季度，市场对于明年的宏观环境与资产配置方向愈发关注。 近期，摩根资产管理多资产解决方案亚洲联席主席金玥珏在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，从现在到未 来6至18个月的战术配置周期来看，全球宏观环境仍有利于风险资产表现，背后主要有三大正面因素支 撑：健康的消费者资产负债表、美联储逐步宽松的货币政策预期以及财政刺激的持续作用，盈利增长的 韧性与风险因素的逐步明朗化，或为风险资产提供上行空间。 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macro environment is favorable for risk assets in the upcoming 6 to 18 months, supported by three main factors: healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Macro Environment - The global consumer and household balance sheets, particularly in the U.S., are generally healthy, providing a stable foundation for the economy [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is becoming clearer, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in the near future, which is beneficial for risk assets [2] - Fiscal stimulus effects from relevant legislation are expected to continue into next year, providing further economic support [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic view on corporate earnings, particularly driven by the AI wave, which is expected to stabilize cash flows and promote earnings growth [2] - Valuation should be analyzed in conjunction with corporate earnings prospects, rather than in isolation [2] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy includes a slightly positive outlook on equities, with a focus on diversification and balance to capture opportunities from themes like AI, re-inflation, and domestic demand [1][3] - In the U.S. equity market, the team prefers large-cap stocks with stable cash flows and high asset quality, particularly in the communications and technology sectors reflecting AI themes [3] - Outside the U.S., Japan and emerging markets, especially Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are highlighted as interesting markets due to fiscal stimulus and improved corporate governance [3][4] Group 4: Focus on China - The multi-asset team has been focusing on the Chinese stock market (A-shares + Hong Kong stocks) since the beginning of the year, viewing it as a reasonable valuation alternative to the U.S. market [4][5] - The long-term outlook for the Chinese stock market is positive, with an investment horizon of 6 to 18 months, rather than a short-term trading opportunity [5] Group 5: Risk Management - The current market valuation is relatively high, leading to increased market volatility, making risk control and volatility management equally important as pursuing returns [5] - Despite high valuations, the low corporate leverage and default rates, along with manageable refinancing pressures, provide a solid foundation for the market [5] - The investment strategy emphasizes diversification across regions and themes to smooth investment returns [5]

大消费启动：方向与标的 20251110 摘要 四季度及 2026 年宏观经济重心转向内需，消费股行情受 CPI 回升推动， PPI 和 CPI 均处底部区间，工业品和食品价格呈现底部回升态势，预示 消费市场回暖。 服务型消费（免税、酒店、餐饮）和兴趣消费（潮玩）是重点关注的细 分领域。海南离岛免税销售额增长，酒店 RevPAR 数据连续增长，茶饮 头部品牌实现同店销售增长，潮玩具备"口红效应"和估值性价比。 零售板块处于低预期、弱基本面状态，但年内涨幅不大，下行空间有限。 建议关注商超百货与连锁龙头（如永辉超市），以及估值较低的标的， 同时关注医美和新锐龙头企业。 纺织服装行业前三季度营收持平，扣非归母净利润下降，但看好运动鞋 服产业链后续表现。预计四季度下半旬和明年一季度品牌服饰和家纺表 现将优于今年同期。 农业板块有筑底回升迹象，重点关注养殖（养牛和养猪）和宠物两个方 面。奶牛产能区划预计明年奶价回升，养猪产能区划有望明年下半年价 格回升，看好鸡蛋价格周期反转。 Q&A 木科技、稳健医疗、登康口腔和毛戈平等。 潮玩板块作为新消费代表，也具备 投资潜力，例如乐华娱乐明年将布局艺人演唱会，有望对利润端产生较 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing landscape of globalization and how Chinese companies are adapting to new opportunities abroad, emphasizing the need for a strategic approach to global expansion [4][6][10]. Group 1: Globalization Trends - The past international division of labor involved Chinese labor moving to coastal areas to combine with foreign capital and technology for export-oriented production, but this model is shifting towards a new "great divergence" [5][6]. - The current trend shows an increase in Chinese companies venturing overseas despite a more complex global market, indicating a strategic pivot in response to changing economic conditions [6][10]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Dynamics - The article highlights the emergence of consumption-driven cities in inland regions of China, where remittances from migrant workers contribute to local economies, creating a mini-version of the global economy [8][10]. - There is a growing trend of labor returning to inland areas as local factories offer competitive wages, posing challenges for coastal cities reliant on export-oriented manufacturing [11][12]. Group 3: Labor Market Considerations - The article points out the impending shortage of skilled manufacturing workers in China due to declining birth rates and changing employment preferences, necessitating a search for overseas labor that can match China's production capabilities [13][14]. - Observations from Indian and Mexican labor markets suggest that local workers can be efficient and adaptable, challenging preconceived notions about foreign labor quality [15][17]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to focus on finding overseas labor that aligns well with their production needs, rather than solely seeking capital or land, to ensure successful international operations [12][13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding local labor dynamics and adapting management practices to foster successful integration into foreign markets [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic guidelines and main objectives for China's economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting policies that support high-quality economic growth [1] - The proposal includes increasing inclusive policies directly benefiting consumers, enhancing government funding for livelihood security, and shifting the focus from short-term stimulus to long-term cultivation of domestic demand [1][2] - The plan aims to adapt to demographic changes and improve infrastructure and public services, with a significant emphasis on investing in human resources, particularly in education and health [2] Group 2 - The proposal advocates for more proactive macroeconomic policies, enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance, and promoting a growth model driven by domestic demand and consumption [2][3] - It suggests improving the central bank's system and establishing a robust monetary policy framework to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which is crucial for financial services to support the real economy [3] - The plan aims to create new advantages for attracting foreign investment by expanding market access, particularly in the service sector, and reducing the negative list for foreign investment [4] Group 3 - The strategy includes expanding bilateral investment cooperation and promoting the "Invest in China" brand while ensuring efficient and secure cross-border data flow [4] - The focus will be on enhancing the comprehensive service system for overseas investments and encouraging orderly cross-border layout of industrial and supply chains [4]

国际货币基金组织2025年最新数据显示，全球经济版图正在重新绘制。美国依然以绝对优势占据榜首，上半年国内生产总值达到14.93万亿美元，这个数字 相当于全球GDP总量的四分之一，彰显着其经济霸主地位的稳固。 而更令人震惊的是亚洲曾经的经济巨人日本的跌落，这个在20世纪80年代一度威胁美国经济霸主地位的国家，其GDP首次跌出世界前三，被欧洲最大经济体 德国反超。 在这场没有硝烟的经济竞争中，最令人瞩目的悬念悄然落在东方大国中国身上。当各国的成绩单陆续公布，所有人的目光都聚焦于东方，期待着这个经济巨 人的答卷。 美国经济上半年交出的成绩单令人瞩目：14.93万亿美元的GDP总量，同比增长1.9%，继续稳坐全球第一经济大国的宝座。但若深入分析，这幅经济图景的 背后却暗藏玄机。 细究美国经济增长的构成，二季度3%的年化增长率中，有近5个百分点来自于进口暴跌30%带来的贸易逆差缩小。 更值得关注的是，作为衡量内生经济动力的关键指标——私人国内最终购买额仅增长1.2%，已连续三个季度呈现回落态势——这表明美国经济的内部动能 正在减弱。 通胀因素也在其中扮演了重要角色，名义增速4.4%中，通胀贡献了2.5%，实际增速只有1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective adjustment, but individual stocks are showing a mixed performance with sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, photovoltaic, and software leading the gains. Analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term upward trend despite short-term technical adjustments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices are undergoing a collective pullback, with a trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan. Despite this, individual stocks are predominantly rising, particularly in the traditional Chinese medicine, photovoltaic, and software sectors [3][5]. - The recent adjustments are attributed to new U.S. tariff policies causing declines in the Asia-Pacific stock markets and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade agreement extension [4][6]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs imposed by the U.S. are raising concerns about potential economic slowdown and inflation, overshadowing previous optimism surrounding AI and large tech stocks [6][10]. - The 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs is set to end on August 12, which could lead to a temporary outflow of foreign capital if tariffs are reinstated. However, the market has partially priced in these expectations, and medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to domestic policy support [10][11]. Group 3: Adjustment Duration - Analysts suggest that the current adjustment phase may be a natural response to rapid price increases, with historical data indicating that significant adjustments often follow when indices reach certain thresholds, such as 3600 points [11][13]. - Historical patterns from previous bull markets in 2007 and 2015 show that significant adjustments occurred after reaching similar index levels, but ultimately led to new highs [13][14]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a "slow bull" trend, with expectations for a gradual transition to a more stable trading phase as the market digests short-term profit-taking [18][20]. - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that typically perform well in August, such as resources and military industries, with a particular emphasis on coal and petrochemical sectors in the first half of the month and larger-cap stocks in the latter half as earnings reports are released [21][25].

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that China's infrastructure sector is entering a "DeepSeek moment," driven by policy support and market demand, marking a significant opportunity for growth in the domestic infrastructure market [2][7]. - The report highlights the shift from traditional reliance on exports and investment to a focus on domestic demand, with infrastructure investment playing a crucial role in this structural adjustment [5][6]. Infrastructure Development Highlights - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is noted as a strategic mega-project that will enhance China's clean energy supply and stimulate investment across various industries, including explosives, engineering machinery, and power equipment [3]. - The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port is identified as a model for regional development and infrastructure upgrades, attracting significant capital and talent, with a focus on enhancing infrastructure in tourism and high-tech industries [3]. - Urban renewal initiatives are shifting focus from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement," emphasizing the optimization and upgrading of existing urban spaces, which will drive growth in related industries such as building materials and smart devices [4]. Economic Transition and Infrastructure Investment - The report discusses the impact of global trade uncertainties and the need for China to pivot from being an "export factory" to an "internal demand engine," with infrastructure investment becoming increasingly important in this transition [5]. - It outlines the "second curve" of domestic demand, where infrastructure investment is seen as a new driver of growth, complementing traditional consumer spending [6]. - The construction of a unified national market is highlighted as a means to facilitate the efficient flow of resources, with infrastructure investment serving as a key platform for this integration [6]. Investment Logic - The report suggests a shift in focus from the quantity of infrastructure investment to the quality of investment, prioritizing strategic projects and addressing gaps in urban infrastructure [9][10]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies with high dividend yields, strong policy protection, and technological advantages, particularly in sectors benefiting from urban renewal and green infrastructure [11]. - The report identifies opportunities in new infrastructure sectors such as 5G, big data centers, and renewable energy projects, which are expected to see accelerated growth [10][11].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed volatility with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 2%, driven by active performance in the media and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - Recent "anti-involution" policies are expected to reduce excess competition on the supply side, enhancing industry concentration and improving corporate profitability, particularly benefiting the new energy vehicle sector within the consumer sector [1] - The core logic for the consumer sector is based on "domestic demand-driven + policy dividends + trend dynamics," indicating a potential recovery in the sector despite short-term market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities anticipates that the market will enter a new phase of upward momentum in the second half of the year, potentially surpassing the peak in the second half of 2024 [2] - The consumer sector is highlighted with three focus areas: 1) domestic demand subsidies related to home appliances, consumer electronics, and Hong Kong automotive stocks; 2) offline service consumption including Hong Kong dining and tourism; 3) new consumption trends [2] - The synergy between hard technology and new consumption is emphasized, particularly through Hong Kong's new consumer products (supporting T+0), which include the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) and the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [2]

Domestic Developments - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3,317.4 billion, an increase of $32.2 billion (0.98%) from May[8] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) by the end of June, up 70,000 ounces from May[9] - The State Council introduced 19 measures to stabilize employment, aiming to support businesses and market expectations amid a declining urban unemployment rate of 5% in May[15][16] International Developments - On July 7, 2025, President Trump signed a tariff order imposing tariffs of 25% to 40% on products from 14 countries, effective August 1, which may impact international trade confidence[18] - Eurozone retail sales grew by 1.8% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations but slowing from a revised 2.7% in April, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum[20] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves from approximately $313 billion to $500 billion by the end of July, with further increases expected in September, raising concerns about debt sustainability[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.70% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 2.22%, and copper prices fell by 1.49%[27] - The price of rebar rose by 0.56% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.23%[33] - The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group remains high at 14.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in the job market despite overall improvements[16]