投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-12 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Group 1 - The Argentine stock market surged by 6% following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen's supportive signals amid recent market sell-offs in Argentina [1][3] - Bansen committed to providing "all stabilization options" to Argentine President Javier Milei, including currency swap lines, direct repurchases of local currency, and utilizing the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) [1][6] - Following the announcement, the Argentine stock market experienced a peak increase of 7% during trading [3] Group 2 - U.S. support will complement a $20 billion program agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was finalized by Milei in April [6] - The Argentine central bank sold $1.1 billion in three days to support the peso, while sovereign bonds faced significant pressure, marking the worst performance in emerging markets [6] - The Milei administration temporarily suspended export taxes on agricultural products to attract more U.S. dollars, indicating a strategy to reduce the depletion of international reserves [6] Group 3 - The upcoming midterm elections on October 26 represent a significant test for Milei, with rising disapproval ratings and a halved lead over the Peronist opposition party [6] - Concerns about Milei's governance have intensified due to bribery allegations, a recent electoral defeat, and challenges to his budget cuts in popular spending areas like education and healthcare [6][8] - Economic recovery under Milei has shown signs of weakness, with a slight contraction in Q2 and expectations of further decline in Q3, alongside high unemployment rates [8]