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避险需求提振黄金期价创下历史新高,白银触及历史高点
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 06:18
纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价8日上涨1.40%,收于每盎司4060.60美 元。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨1.95%,收于每盎司48.44美元。 美国政府关门及其他不确定地缘政治因素引发的避险需求继续提振贵金属价格,黄金、白银价格当天继 续大幅上涨,12月黄金期价创下4072.40美元历史新高。白银价格触及14年来49.04美元最高点,接近略 高于50美元的历史高点。 英国央行8日称,人工智能公司估值过高,以及美联储独立性面临挑战,加剧了股票"市场大幅回调"的 风险。 分析人士认为,金价最终突破每盎司4000美元可能会引发市场波动,但无法阻止本轮牛市势头。相反, 金价回调是买入良机,预计金价上涨趋势将持续到明年上半年,届时平均金价将创下每盎司4400美元新 高。 技术层面,12月黄金期货多头拥有强劲技术优势。多头的下一个上行价格目标是突破4100美元坚固阻力 价位。空头的下一个下行价格目标是跌破3850美元坚固技术支撑价位。 法国政治危机令欧盟和欧洲市场紧张不安,导致美元指数过去三周大幅上涨,当日触及9周高点。欧元 则跌至两个月低点。此外,新西兰央行降息幅度超出预期并 ...
美经济不及预期,金价强势运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 14:29
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed strong performance. On Friday night, COMEX gold first soared and then declined, with the main contract price dropping from around $3,500 to around $3,450. The prices of SHFE gold and London gold had little fluctuation, and the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold once widened to $100. The new US tariff policy led to a different trend of COMEX gold compared to London gold and SHFE gold. The short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range [3][24]. - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, which may increase the expectation of a US economic recession and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but specific trend details are not elaborated [6]. 1.2 Index Changes | Index | August 8 | August 1 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,458.20 | $3,416.00 | 1.24% | | COMEX Silver | $38.51 | $37.11 | 3.79% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 787.80 | 770.72 | 2.22% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,278.00 | 8,918.00 | 4.04% | | US Dollar Index | 98.26 | 98.69 | - 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 7.19 | 7.19 | - 0.02% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.88 | 1.90 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,389.45 | 6,238.01 | 2.43% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $63.35 | $67.26 | - 5.81% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 89.80 | 92.06 | - 2.46% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.91 | 86.42 | - 1.75% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 959.64 | 953.08 | 6.56 | | iShare Gold ETF | 452.61 | 450.04 | 2.57 | [7] 2. Gold Price Fluctuation - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, increasing the market's recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index weakened again. The US stock market maintained a strong performance, with high market risk appetite, which put pressure on the gold price [9][11]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to rise. As of August 5, the long position increased by 10,953 contracts, the short position decreased by 2,501 contracts, and the long net position increased by 13,454 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [13][14]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has started to climb. In early June, the silver price rose sharply, and the corresponding ETF positions increased significantly. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, the capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance. Last week, silver first soared and then declined. As the gold price fell back, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly [16][18]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range. The US economic recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation may increase, which is beneficial to the gold price, and it is expected that the gold price will run strongly [24].
美欧协议浮现雏形沪银窄幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-25 07:17
Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]
多重利空打压,纽约金价22日冲高回落超100美元
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 00:50
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that international gold prices experienced a significant drop due to profit-taking and a recovery in market risk sentiment, with the June 2025 gold futures price falling by $33.3 to $3392 per ounce, a decrease of 0.97% [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3509.9 per ounce during the day but fell to a low of $3379.10, reflecting increased volatility and profit-taking risks after a cumulative increase of over 12% in the month [1] - The rebound in U.S. stock indices and the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.56% to close at 98.918, contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Silver prices also declined, following the drop in gold prices, with the July silver futures price falling by 2.7 cents to $32.805 per ounce, a decrease of 0.08% [2] - However, the improvement in market risk sentiment is expected to enhance industrial demand for silver, which may limit the extent of its price decline [2]