1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the Non-Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the monthly increase in social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year; PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, down from -2.1% in the previous month but up from -2.5% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, turning positive from -1.1% in the previous month but slightly down from 6.58% in the same period last year; imports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in the previous month and turning positive from -4.03% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with 8 key tasks including promoting investment recovery, developing new energy, and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - High-frequency data in November showed positive trends in consumption, investment, and foreign trade, with offline consumption index up 12.0% year-on-year, infrastructure project中标金额 and construction machinery operating rate increasing, and international freight flights up 6.2 percentage points from October [2] - In the first 11 months, China's total goods import and export value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with private enterprises' imports and exports reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, and the number of private enterprises with import and export records increasing by 66,000 [3] 2.2 Metals - The aluminum industry chain prices are diverging, with alumina prices halved from a year ago while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to improved profitability for electrolytic aluminum enterprises and potential losses for some alumina enterprises [4] - As of December 11, 2025, the international silver futures price on the COMEX had increased by 113.3% since the beginning of the year, reaching $62.5 per ounce [4] - Goldman Sachs believes there is room to raise the gold price forecast to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if US private investors increase their investment in gold ETFs [5] 2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Jilin Province plans to develop future industries such as artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, and new energy storage [8] - Citibank revised its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude oil prices to remain stable in 2026, with an average price of $62 per barrel in the base scenario and potentially reaching $75 per barrel in an optimistic scenario [8] - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9] 2.4 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to continue rising in December, potentially exceeding 3 million tons if exports remain weak, and its 2025 production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [11] - Argentina reduced the export tax rate for soybeans from 26% to 24% and for wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5% [11] - Brazil has been authorized to export beef and beef products to Guatemala [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 11, the central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan as 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [14] 3.2 Key News - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work, emphasizing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and outlined 8 key tasks [15] - The Ministry of Commerce will issue opinions to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry [15] - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 3.4%, and new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market continued to perform well, with most interest rate bond yields declining, and treasury bond futures rising [19] - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally adjusted downward, while some other bonds such as "25 TeGuo 03" rose [20] - Most money market interest rates declined on December 11 [21] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.058 on December 11, up 58 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0686, up 67 points [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the Central Economic Work Conference provided clear policy directions, including more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and emphasized new industries and anti-competition [25] - CITIC Securities expects the fiscal budget deficit rate to remain at around 4% in 2026, with a slight increase in the scale of special treasury bonds and local special bonds, and there may be a 10bps interest rate cut in the first half of the year [25][26] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the November inflation data has some impact on the bond market, but the bond market's counterattack logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold short-term credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and interest rate bonds with maturities of 5 - 7 years or less [26] 4. Stock Market News - The A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.41%, while the BeiZheng 50 Index rose 3.84% [29] - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.04%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.23% [29]

Group 1 - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about Chinese technology assets, with UBS and Goldman Sachs projecting a 37% profit increase for Chinese tech companies in 2025 and setting a target of 7100 points for the Hang Seng Tech Index [2] - The significant asset restructuring by Dongfang Precision involves the cash sale of 100% equity in Fosber Group and two other companies for a base price of €774 million, focusing on core business development [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced a major outage due to cooling issues, leading to a surge in silver prices, with the COMEX silver futures contract rising over 6% to reach a historical high [2] Group 2 - A senior executive from a leading brokerage was fined 135 million yuan for insider trading, having made a profit of 18.75 million yuan from undisclosed information [3] - Analyst Li Bei expressed optimism for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a potential bull market due to favorable valuations and improving earnings for leading companies [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is soliciting opinions on several new regulations aimed at promoting market development, including a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts [3] Group 3 - Gold prices surged past $4200 per ounce, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with multiple officials signaling a dovish stance [4] - Major adjustments to A-share indices were announced, with increased representation of the information technology sector, leading to a more balanced industry allocation [5] - Japan plans to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen in government bonds to finance economic stimulus, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential impacts on the yen and Japanese bonds [5] Group 4 - Silver prices reached historical highs, supported by expectations of a supply deficit by 2025 and increasing demand from the photovoltaic sector [5]

Group 1 - COMEX silver futures are currently trading at around $51.40, showing an increase of 0.52% from the opening price of $51.16, with a high of $51.51 and a low of $50.77, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to heightened demand for safe-haven assets like silver, as Ukraine issued emergency air alerts and the situation remains tense with military actions [1] - The peace talks between the U.S. and Ukraine have been complicated, with Russia rejecting the European version of the peace plan, suggesting a low likelihood of a quick resolution to the conflict [1] Group 2 - The December silver futures market shows that bulls have a technical advantage, with the next target being to close above the strong resistance level of $54.415, while bears aim to push prices below the support level of $47.00 [2] - The first resistance level is identified at the recent high of $50.555, followed by $51.00, while the initial support level is at today's low of $49.37, with the next support at $49.00 [2]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 12050, with an opening price of 11760 and a current price of 12058, reflecting a 1.43% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 12107, while the lowest was 11760, indicating a short-term bearish trend in silver futures [1] Group 2 - The delayed US August factory orders report shows a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, aligning with initial expectations [3] - Durable goods orders increased by 2.9%, while non-durable goods orders slightly decreased by 0.1% [3] - Excluding transportation, factory orders saw a modest rise of 0.1% [3] Group 3 - A significant contributor to the increase in orders was a 21.8% surge in civilian aircraft orders, adding $4.2 billion to the total [4] - Other transportation orders also performed well, with defense aircraft orders rising by $1.2 billion to $6.7 billion and ship/boat orders increasing by $0.5 billion to $4.7 billion [4] - Excluding transportation, durable goods orders grew by 0.3%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, particularly in machinery (up 1.2% to $39.2 billion) and metal products (up 0.7% to $41.5 billion) [4] Group 4 - Silver futures experienced a rebound after dropping to around 11700, closing temporarily at 11950, with ongoing long positions being held [5] - The potential for further upward movement in silver prices is anticipated, with short-term targets set at 12200 and medium-term at 12500 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market is experiencing a decline, with December 2025 gold prices dropping by $49.1 to $4045.1 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.20% due to a lack of positive news in the precious metals sector [1] Market Performance - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price fell by $49.1, closing at $4045.1 per ounce, with a decline of 1.20% [1] - Silver futures for December delivery decreased by $0.636, closing at $50.050 per ounce, marking a drop of 1.25% [1] Economic Data Impact - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the delayed September employment report on November 20 and the inflation-adjusted corporate earnings report on November 21, are expected to provide insights into the U.S. economic situation [1] - These data releases will primarily reflect past economic conditions rather than current trends [1] Market Sentiment - The current sentiment among gold and silver bulls is cautious, as prices remain at historical highs without new supportive fundamentals [1] - Last week saw a strong rebound in gold and silver prices, driven by the reopening of the U.S. government and potential interest rate cuts, which may further elevate gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - The next bullish target for December gold futures is to break through the historical high of $4398 per ounce, while the bearish target is to fall below the strong technical support level of $4000 per ounce [1] - Industrial demand is expected to provide long-term support for silver prices [1]

Core Insights - The December 2025 gold futures price rose by 1.40% to $4060.60 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand due to U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Gold reached a historical high of $4072.40, while silver prices hit a 14-year peak of $49.04, nearing the $50 historical high [1] - The Bank of England warned of risks related to overvaluation of AI companies and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to significant stock market corrections [1] - The political crisis in France has heightened tensions in the EU and European markets, leading to a substantial rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a 9-week high [1] - Analysts believe the breakthrough of gold prices above $4000 reflects deeper shifts in investor psychology and global capital flows, with expectations of continued upward trends into the first half of next year, potentially reaching an average of $4400 per ounce [1] Technical Analysis - December gold futures bulls hold a strong technical advantage, with the next upward target set at breaking the solid resistance level of $4100 [2] - The next downward target for bears is to break below the solid technical support level of $3850 [2] Silver Market - The December silver futures price increased by 1.95%, closing at $48.44 per ounce [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed strong performance. On Friday night, COMEX gold first soared and then declined, with the main contract price dropping from around $3,500 to around $3,450. The prices of SHFE gold and London gold had little fluctuation, and the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold once widened to $100. The new US tariff policy led to a different trend of COMEX gold compared to London gold and SHFE gold. The short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range [3][24]. - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, which may increase the expectation of a US economic recession and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but specific trend details are not elaborated [6]. 1.2 Index Changes | Index | August 8 | August 1 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,458.20 | $3,416.00 | 1.24% | | COMEX Silver | $38.51 | $37.11 | 3.79% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 787.80 | 770.72 | 2.22% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,278.00 | 8,918.00 | 4.04% | | US Dollar Index | 98.26 | 98.69 | - 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 7.19 | 7.19 | - 0.02% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.88 | 1.90 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,389.45 | 6,238.01 | 2.43% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $63.35 | $67.26 | - 5.81% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 89.80 | 92.06 | - 2.46% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.91 | 86.42 | - 1.75% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 959.64 | 953.08 | 6.56 | | iShare Gold ETF | 452.61 | 450.04 | 2.57 | [7] 2. Gold Price Fluctuation - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, increasing the market's recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index weakened again. The US stock market maintained a strong performance, with high market risk appetite, which put pressure on the gold price [9][11]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to rise. As of August 5, the long position increased by 10,953 contracts, the short position decreased by 2,501 contracts, and the long net position increased by 13,454 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [13][14]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has started to climb. In early June, the silver price rose sharply, and the corresponding ETF positions increased significantly. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, the capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance. Last week, silver first soared and then declined. As the gold price fell back, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly [16][18]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range. The US economic recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation may increase, which is beneficial to the gold price, and it is expected that the gold price will run strongly [24].

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that international gold prices experienced a significant drop due to profit-taking and a recovery in market risk sentiment, with the June 2025 gold futures price falling by $33.3 to $3392 per ounce, a decrease of 0.97% [1] - Gold prices reached a high of $3509.9 per ounce during the day but fell to a low of $3379.10, reflecting increased volatility and profit-taking risks after a cumulative increase of over 12% in the month [1] - The rebound in U.S. stock indices and the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which increased by 0.56% to close at 98.918, contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Silver prices also declined, following the drop in gold prices, with the July silver futures price falling by 2.7 cents to $32.805 per ounce, a decrease of 0.08% [2] - However, the improvement in market risk sentiment is expected to enhance industrial demand for silver, which may limit the extent of its price decline [2]