开发商资金链紧张问题持续发酵，头部房企如英皇国际、新世界发展相继出现债务违约，部分项目停工或延期交付，引发消费者信任危机。 2025年上半年，TOP100房企销售总额同比下降11.8%，民企拿地金额占比从62%骤降至6%，市场集中度加速向央企、国企倾斜。资金短缺导致开发商降价 促销，但低价房源入市进一步冲击市场价格体系，形成"降价-抛售-价格踩踏"的负向循环。 2025年深圳计划供应5万套保障房（含公租房、共有产权房等），价格仅为市场价的3-6折，直接分流中低收入群体购房需求。例如，宝安区共有产权房单价 2.37万/㎡，为周边商品房价格的50%，吸引大量刚需转向保障房市场。同时，保障房建设通过专项债等方式获得资金支持，而商品房开发融资渠道收窄，导 致市场资源配置失衡。 楼市救市政策一波接一波，房价却没起色？二手房堆成山，开发商还在爆雷，保障房又来抢客源……房地产回暖咋就这么难？看完就懂了。 尽管2024年以来多轮救市政策密集出台，包括限购放松、利率下调、首付比例降低等，但政策效果呈现明显分化。一线城市如深圳、广州取消限购后市场反 应冷淡，三四线城市因库存积压严重，政策刺激难以扭转颓势。 以深圳为例，二手房挂牌 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been experiencing accelerated adjustments since April 2023, a trend expected to continue into 2024, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities dropping for 22 consecutive months [1] - Five major transformations are anticipated in the Chinese real estate market in 2024, significantly impacting its structure and dynamics [8] Group 1: Major Transformations - Transformation Five: A new wave of demolition targeting urban villages and prefabricated houses is expected in 2024, driven by safety concerns due to aging structures [1] - Transformation Four: The construction of affordable housing is set to accelerate, with a government plan to build 6 million units over the next five years, shifting focus from the commodity housing market to providing housing security for low-income groups [3] - Transformation Three: The trend of selling properties as completed units is expected to rise, as calls to abolish the pre-sale system grow due to debt defaults and unfinished projects by major developers [3] Group 2: Market Trends - Transformation Two: Housing prices in first-tier cities are likely to continue declining, with significant drops observed in core areas, such as a 30-40% decrease in central Shanghai prices compared to 2021 peaks [5] - Transformation One: Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to intensify, including potential further relaxations of purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates below 4% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a new adjustment cycle since the relaxation of pandemic controls in 2023, driven by long-accumulated factors, with significant declines in new home transactions and a surge in second-hand home listings [1][3]. Market Trends - From March 2023, both the transaction volume and area of new homes have decreased, while the second-hand housing market has seen a dramatic increase in listings, with cities like Chengdu and Chongqing surpassing 200,000 listings and Shanghai exceeding 180,000 by the end of June [1]. - By July, the second-hand housing price index for 100 cities showed a year-on-year decline in 96 cities, indicating a widespread downturn in the market [1]. Government Response - In response to falling housing prices, local governments have implemented various "market rescue" policies, including relaxing purchase and sale restrictions in many second and third-tier cities, reducing mortgage rates below 4%, and increasing housing fund loan limits to alleviate financial pressure on first-time buyers [1]. - The introduction of the "recognize house but not loan" policy aims to stimulate demand for improved housing, although the effectiveness of these measures has been limited [1]. Economic Impact - The decline in housing prices is attributed to two main factors: the impact of the pandemic leading to reduced incomes and job losses, which have diminished purchasing power, and the ongoing decrease in property values since the second half of 2021, eroding the "wealth effect" associated with real estate [3]. - The suggestion to utilize one-third of the 15 trillion yuan in household savings to stimulate real estate purchases and related consumption has sparked controversy, as many view these savings as essential for financial security [4]. Market Sentiment - Public sentiment reflects skepticism about the real estate market's future, with a common perception that the speculative nature of real estate investment is nearing its end, as indicated by a remark from a typical consumer highlighting the end of the "hot potato" game in real estate [6]. - Experts suggest that the government's recent policies aim to prevent drastic fluctuations in the market and achieve a "soft landing," but the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with the potential for continued adjustments in the housing market [6].

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实际上，当年李嘉诚的预测主要表达两层意思：一个是，内地房价居高不下，远远脱离了当地居民的购买力，最终还是会去投资化、去杠杆化，逐步回归居 住属性。提醒那些炒房客们要当心了，买房别被套在楼市里面。 另一个是，未来数年内，那些高负债率、销售业绩下滑、融资困难的房企会面临破产重组的结局，而低负债、资金充裕的房企才能生存下来。此外，各地房 价也会出现分化，通常泡沫越大的城市，房价就会跌得越多。 在进入到2025年之后，楼市仍然延续之前调整的趋势。1—4月份，新建商品房销售面积29252万平方米，同比下降20.2%。同时，新建商品房销售额28067亿 元，下降28.3%，其中住宅销售额下降31.1%。此外，2025年第一季度，全国70个大中城市中，有53个城市二手房价格环比下跌，其中12个城市跌幅超过 1.5%。 面对当前房地产市场的走势，早已经被华人首富李嘉诚给说中了。2018年李嘉诚曾经做出过预测。他表示："房子始终是用来住人的，内地的房价一直居高 不下，在未来数年内，房地产行业有可能会面临大洗牌，炒房客们应该谨慎了"。当时，正值房地产市场繁荣周期，很多人对李嘉诚的预测嗤之以鼻，认为 楼市不会进入调整周期。 从目前 ...

"积压剧"的放出可以看作是一种宏观调控下的积极自救。不止《折腰》，就在今日，爱奇艺官宣的由李现 和春夏主演的《人生若如初见》去年也曾因涉及舆论风波延期上线。因政策审查趋严、劣迹艺人风险、题 材敏感度变化等因素导致的项目积压一直以来都是行业痛点，甚至成为最大的不可控风险。过去几年，以 戏份剪辑、AI换脸、换角重拍等多种方式，平台和剧集公司一直试图推动更多积压剧上线，以降低损失。 腾讯视频出品，改编晋江文学城蓬莱客原著，由宋祖儿、刘宇宁主演的古装爱情剧集《折腰》于5月13日 12点"空降"播出，霸占了各大平台热搜榜单。 这部拍于2023年，投资成本达S+级别的平台重点剧集因主演之一宋祖儿的税务风波一直积压未播。直至上 个月，同为宋祖儿主演的奇幻仙侠剧集《无忧渡》在爱奇艺顺利完播，一时间对于《折腰》定档的期待和 传言也争相涌现，腾讯站内预约超250万。网友套用《甄嬛传》中的名台词自我调侃道："朕与祖儿何时有 过嫌隙。" 《折腰》的首播热度与当前剧集市场面临的客观困境息息相关：一方面，长剧呈现疲软态势，播期集均播 放量超3000万的剧集数量锐减，爆款内容青黄不接，供给侧也被盖章"长剧小年"；另一方面，短剧的爆发 式增 ...

最近楼市的动静有点大，政策一套接一套。有人说这是上头急了，也有人说这是楼市最后的机会。 但不管怎么说，这次救市的力度和决心，确实是近几年少见的。 先看数据。2025年一季度，全国一二手房成交面积同比增长17%，新房销售面积降幅收窄，部分城市甚 至出现了环比上涨。 但这背后，是房地产行业对GDP的贡献依然高达6.68%，加上建筑业，合计占比超过11%。换句话说， 楼市要是垮了，整个经济都得抖三抖。 再看看政策。从首付比例降到15%，到房贷利率跌破4%，从取消限购限售，到发放购房补贴，政策组 合拳一个接一个。 比如一线城市首套房首付降到20%，二套房30%，深圳、上海的房贷利率甚至低至3.8%，300万贷款月 供能省1500多块。 而且分化严重，一线城市如北京、深圳去化周期超过18个月，而杭州、成都核心区只需要4.8个月。 三四线城市更惨，有的地方去化周期长达50个月，二手房挂牌量激增80%。 其次是居民债务。2025年4月，我国居民债务收入比高达140%-142%，远超美国的90%，接近日本的 180%。 也就是说，老百姓兜里的钱大部分都用来还债了，哪还有多余的钱买房？ 这也是为什么政策要拼命降低购房门槛，甚至 ...

近年来，国内房地产市场处于长期调整的趋势之中。根据最新数据显示：2024年全国商品房销售面积同比下降11.3%，销售额同比下降15.7%。与此同时， 2024年全国300个城市新建商品住宅价格指数同比下降3.2%，二手住宅价格指数同比下降5.1%，这是房价连续第三年整体下行。 而为了促进房地产市场的繁荣，稳定各地房价，相关部门纷纷采取救市政策。在地方政府方面是除了一线城市的核心区域之外，其他绝大多数地区都放开了 限购政策。此外，各地还上调了公积金贷款上限。银行方面则是下调房贷利率至3%以下，并将首付比例下调至1.5%。在税收方面，税务部门减免了购房者 的契税和增值税。 现如今，一边是房地产市场调整趋势十分明显，而另一边则是各种救市利好政策集中释放。于是，就有人提出，2025年，该"尽快买房"，还是"继续观望"？ 而对于这个问题，马云和李嘉诚都发表了类似的看法。马云在2025年3月的一次内部讲话中表示："房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的，这个基本定位不会改 变。对于刚需和改善性需求，当下可能是比较好的入市时机"。此外，马云还认为，从长周期看，随着城镇化进程的推进，以及改善性需求的增加，未来房 地产市场仍有发展空间， ...

Group 1 - The real estate market has been under continuous pressure since last autumn, with various measures implemented by both central and local governments to stabilize the market [1] - In March 2025, Nanjing announced the cancellation of an 8-year limit on resale policies, leading to a significant increase in second-hand home transactions, which surged by 58% year-on-year [3] - Tax incentives have been introduced, allowing second-home buyers to enjoy personal income tax deductions, potentially saving up to 12,000 yuan annually, which could encourage more families to consider upgrading their homes [3] Group 2 - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have seen significant increases in second-hand home transaction volumes, reaching 19-month and 44-month highs respectively, while Shenzhen hit a 50-month record [5] - There is a noticeable disparity in the market, with cities like Nanjing having a new home inventory of 68,000 units, enough for 22 months, while other cities like Hangzhou experience high demand for improved housing [5] - The ongoing efforts to stabilize the market are seen as a challenging task, with experts predicting further policy adjustments in the second quarter, including potential loosening of purchase restrictions and mortgage rate reductions [6][7]

第三，利率政策的变化对购房决策有着重要影响。近年来，央行多次降息，降低了购房贷款的成本。这对于购房者来说是一 个利好消息，可以减轻还款压力。利率的波动也可能带来不确定性，购房者需要密切关注利率变化，合理安排贷款计划。 近年来，随着中国房地产市场的波动，频繁出台救市政策，旨在稳定市场、促进经济健康发展。这些政策包括降低首付比 例、放宽限购限贷、提供购房补贴等，引发了广泛关注。许多购房者开始思考，这是否是入手房产的黄金时刻？本文将从六 个方面详细分析当前房地产市场的形势，帮助读者做出明智的决策。 第四，房地产市场的供需关系是决定房价走势的关键因素。当前，许多城市的房地产市场供大于求，导致房价上涨乏力。一 些热点城市仍然存在供不应求的情况，房价可能继续上涨。购房者需要根据所在城市的供需状况，判断房价的走势，做出合 理的购房决策。 我们需要了解当前房地产市场的整体状况。近年来，房地产市场经历了从高速增长到逐步降温的过程。为了稳定市场，出台 了一系列救市政策。这些政策在一定程度上缓解了市场的下行压力，但也引发了市场的波动。购房者需要全面了解市场动 态，才能做出合理的判断。 救市政策对购房者的影响不容忽视。降低首付比例、 ...