11月上旬，一艘满载高粱的船从德克萨斯港启航，随后两艘大豆船从路易斯安那港紧随其后，总货量超过20万吨，直奔上海和青岛。这些船的到来并非偶 然。自贸易摩擦升级以来，美国对华农产品出口急剧下降，今年上半年下滑超过50%。到10月底，美国大豆库存高达4200万吨，农场主焦急万分，像热锅上 的蚂蚁一样。与此同时，巴西和阿根廷早早抢占市场，他们的大豆价格更低、到货更快，占据了中国市场约八成份额。美国农民因此损失了上百亿美元订 单，破产案件不断增加。 船队启航，对美国中西部农场来说，无异于一口喘息的空气。农产品出口收入占美国GDP约2%。11月24日，特朗普主动给中方打电话，通话整整持续一小 时，焦点主要是农产品订单细节、芬太尼管制以及台湾问题。通话结束后，特朗普立即在社交媒体上发帖，称这份协议对美国农民来说是重大利好，并强调 中美关系牢不可破。他的态度变化非常明显，以前动不动就扬言加100%关税，现在却低头谈采购，并承诺取消部分关税。 中美贸易一直像一场拉锯战，前脚刚开始争斗，后脚又得找台阶下。最近，美国有三艘货船满载大豆和高粱，直接驶向中国港口，引起了不小的关注。过 去，特朗普对中国非常强硬，动辄扬言加关税，让人摇 ...

Core Insights - Brazil's soybean production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach a record high of 177.6 million tons, with exports expected to hit 112.1 million tons, also a historical peak [1] - The increase in soybean crushing is anticipated to rise to 59.37 million tons in 2026, driven by higher biodiesel blending mandates and sustained demand for protein in animal feed [1] - In contrast, Brazil's corn production for the 2025/26 season is expected to decline by 1.6% to 139 million tons compared to the previous year [1] Summary by Category Soybean Production and Exports - Brazil's soybean production is forecasted at 177.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, marking a historical high [1] - Soybean exports are also expected to reach 112.1 million tons, setting a new record [1] Crushing and Demand Factors - The soybean crushing volume is projected to increase to 59.37 million tons in 2026, influenced by the rise in biodiesel blending ratios and ongoing demand for protein in animal feed [1] Corn Production - Brazil's corn production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 139 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 1.6% from the previous year [1]

Core Points - The Brazilian Administrative Council for Economic Defense (Cade) has ruled to reinstate the "Soybean Moratorium" starting January 1, 2026, after a temporary suspension [1][2] - The Soybean Moratorium is a self-regulatory agreement signed by major trading companies and exporters since 2008, prohibiting the purchase of soybeans produced on land cleared after 2008 in legally protected areas of the Amazon, despite compliance with the 2012 Forest Code [1][2] - The decision has sparked industry disagreements, with the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) supporting regulatory certainty, while the Mato Grosso Soybean and Corn Producers Association argues it infringes on the rights of lawful farmers [1][2] Industry Impact - The moratorium has been credited with reducing deforestation in the Amazon during critical periods and maintaining Brazil's sustainable agricultural image in international markets [2] - Some European retailers have urged Brazilian traders to continue sourcing soybeans only from areas not recently deforested, even during the moratorium's suspension [2] - Analysts suggest that Cade's decision will not only affect Brazil's agricultural production and export landscape but may also have significant implications for Brazil's image in international environmental and trade negotiations [2]