市统计局相关负责人表示，总的来看，随着一揽子政策措施协同发力，全市经济延续稳中向好态势。但 也要看到，当前外部环境不稳定不确定因素较多，经济持续向好基础还需加力稳固。下阶段仍要抓创新 增动力、抓项目扩投资、抓工业强支撑、抓消费提活力、抓改革促开放，推动经济稳定健康较快增长。 市场物价总体稳定。1~7月，全市居民消费价格（CPI）同比下降0.2%。 固定资产投资增势良好。1~7月，全市固定资产投资同比增长5.4%，比上半年提高1.1个百分点。重大项 目投资带动作用持续提升，亿元及以上项目（不含房地产开发）完成投资同比增长14.3%，比上半年加 快0.9个百分点，拉动全市投资增长7.3个百分点。工业投资延续两位数增长态势，工业投资同比增长 34.6%，比上半年提高3.1个百分点，连续7个月保持两位数高速增长态势。民间投资活力不断释放，民 间投资同比增长11.7%，比上半年提高1.7个百分点。 消费需求持续释放。7月全市社会消费品零售总额492.3亿元，同比增长4.6%。其中，基本生活类消费快 速增长，部分升级类消费增速加快，住宿餐饮消费有所回升。1~7月，全市社会消费品零售总额3829.7 亿元，同比增长6.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrades for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, and the need to understand the trends of global capital rebalancing [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical situations influencing market narratives [32].

Market Performance - A-shares continued to rise significantly on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.25% and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.63% [2][4] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history, marking a significant milestone [4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 411.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2][4] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as brokerage firms and financial technology, with stocks like Zhinan Zhen and Strong Ray Technology hitting their historical highs [4] - AI hardware stocks, particularly those related to liquid cooling servers, experienced explosive growth, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [4] - The film and television sector also showed active performance, with companies like Huace Film & TV hitting their daily limit [4] Market Sentiment and Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the current market rally is not primarily driven by improved macroeconomic expectations but rather by policy support and the emergence of new growth drivers, which have boosted market confidence and attracted new capital [6] - Guotai Junan Securities expressed a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market, suggesting that A-share indices may reach new highs, emphasizing the importance of institutional changes in the Chinese market [6]

Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% and a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [1] - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [3][10] - The growth rate of fixed asset investment, excluding real estate development, was 5.3% [10] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in July decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales growth of goods [7] - The sales of goods in July amounted to 34,276 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0%, which is a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month [7] - The decline in consumption growth was attributed to temporary suspensions of the "old-for-new" policy in some regions and ongoing challenges in the real estate market [8] Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%. However, real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0% [10] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the sales amount fell by 6.5% [10] - The investment growth rate in the manufacturing sector has been declining since the second quarter, influenced by external environment fluctuations and internal policy changes [11] Future Outlook - The potential for recovery in consumption is anticipated with the reintroduction of the "old-for-new" policy and new subsidies for personal consumption loans [13] - Fixed asset investment is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 6.0% in the second half of the year, supported by the issuance of special bonds for local government projects [14] - Overall, the economic policy is expected to remain stable, focusing on service consumption and risk prevention, with a high probability of achieving a growth target of 5.0% [15]

央视网消息（新闻联播）：国务院新闻办公室8月15日举行新闻发布会。国家统计局发布的最新经济数据显示，7月份，国民经济保 持稳中有进发展态势，高质量发展取得新成效。 发展新动能稳步成长。1—7月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.5%，其中电子及通信设备制造业、航空航天器及设备制 造业分别增长12.8%和8.6%。数字经济快速发展，7月份，规模以上数字产品制造业增加值同比增长8.4%。 消费、投资保持增长。提振消费相关政策发力显效，商品销售和服务消费均保持持续增长。7月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 3.7%，其中商品零售额增长4%。1—7月份，服务零售额同比增长5.2%。投资规模继续扩大，大规模设备更新政策效应持续释放，带 动1—7月份设备工器具购置投资增长15.2%。 生产供给稳定增长。7月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.7%。产业升级发展带动下，装备制造业增势较好。7月份规模以上装备制 造业增加值同比增长8.4%，快于全部规模以上工业增加值2.7个百分点。 服务业增势较好，7月份服务业生产指数同比增长5.8%。暑期旅游出行增多，带动相关服务业较快增长。 ...

通过省份发布的半年报，地方经济的脉动清晰可辨。一边是传统经济大省依托创新巩固优势、开辟增量，一边是其他省份借力新兴产业和特色 消费点燃经济引擎、异军突起。在巩固"基本盘"的同时，加速培育"新动能"，正成为各地谋求高质量发展的关键路径和活力来源。下半年，这 份活力如何延续，值得期待。 | 广东 | STATUTE OF COLUMN COLLECTION | | 68725.4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 江苏 | | | 66967.8 | | 山东 | | 50046 | | | 浙江 | | 45004 | | | 三国 | 31918.2 | | | | 河南 | 31683.8 | | | | 湖北 | 29642.61 | | | | 福建 | 27996.57 | | | | 上海 | 26222.15 | | | | 湖南 | 26166.5 | | | ↓点击标题蓝字可看电子版↓ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, exceeding initial market expectations and improving by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for July was 52.6%, indicating stable and optimistic market confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created, achieving 58% of the annual target [2] Domestic Demand and Resilience - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, highlighting its role as the main driver [2] - The total import and export scale reached 20 trillion yuan, with exports increasing by 7.2% [2] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 9.5%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.1 percentage points [3] Policy and Strategic Focus - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement policies to expand domestic demand and promote high-level technological self-reliance [3] - Emphasis on strengthening the domestic circulation to mitigate external shocks and uncertainties [4] - The NDRC aims to enhance the effectiveness of domestic circulation by optimizing supply structures and increasing investment returns [6][7] Market and Investment Environment - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales to total sales increased to 40.4%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Logistics costs as a percentage of GDP decreased, saving over 130 billion yuan in logistics expenses [7] - The NDRC is focused on improving the market environment for new industries and enhancing the competitiveness of state-owned enterprises [9][11] Reform Initiatives - The NDRC is set to deepen reforms to stimulate consumption and expand effective investment [9] - Plans to standardize government investment behaviors and address issues of disorderly competition in various sectors [10] - The NDRC will promote policies to facilitate market access for new business models and enhance the flow and allocation of production factors [11]

Economic Overview - Guangdong's GDP reached 68,725.40 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter [1] - The primary industry added value was 2,258.86 billion yuan, growing by 4.2%; the secondary industry added value was 25,978.86 billion yuan, growing by 3.4%; and the tertiary industry added value was 40,487.69 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size in Guangdong grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with a 0.1 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter, and a growth of 5.3% in June [1] - Key industries showed stable support, with the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry growing by 7.3%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 7.8%, automotive manufacturing by 7.2%, and petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries by 8.6% [1] New Growth Drivers - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing added value grew by 5.9% and 6.0% respectively, accounting for 55.4% and 33.0% of the industrial added value above designated size [1] - High-tech product output saw rapid growth, with new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries for energy storage, industrial robots, service robots, and civilian drones increasing by 14.7%, 42.2%, 34.0%, 23.0%, and 58.2% respectively [1] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with a 0.3 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter [2] - From January to May, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5%, with transportation, warehousing, and postal services, information transmission, software, and IT services, and leasing and business services growing by 9.3%, 8.3%, and 9.3% respectively [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, with equipment renewal policies driving a 1.5% increase in equipment and tool purchases [2] - Industrial investment accounted for 38.1%, with automotive manufacturing and petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries seeing investment growth of 14.6% and 57.9% respectively [2] - Real estate development investment fell by 16.3%, with new commercial housing sales area declining by 10.6%, although the decline was 20.0% less than the previous year [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with a 1.0 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter [2] - Categories related to trade-in programs saw rapid growth, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, communication equipment, and building materials increasing by 44.9%, 38.5%, 65.5%, 24.2%, and 35.2% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial production in China showed a rapid growth in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, driven by strong performance in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Growth - The value added of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.2% year-on-year, while the high-tech manufacturing industry saw a growth of 9.5%, both outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.8 and 3.1 percentage points respectively [3]. - The monthly growth rates for high-tech manufacturing in the first half of the year were consistently above the overall industrial growth, with notable increases of 10.7% in March and 9.7% in June [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Support - The government is expected to implement more robust growth policies in the second half of the year, with a focus on stabilizing economic performance and enhancing market order [1][6]. - The central government has a rich "policy toolbox" and is preparing to introduce measures based on market changes to support economic stability [1][6]. Group 3: New Industries and Technologies - New industries and technologies are rapidly developing, with significant year-on-year production increases in 3D printing equipment (43.1%), new energy vehicles (36.2%), and industrial robots (35.6%) [4]. - The contribution of new technologies and products is anticipated to provide new growth points for the economy, potentially becoming a new pillar of growth in the coming years [4]. Group 4: Market Order and Competition - Measures are being developed to address the issue of "involution" in certain industries, aiming to improve market order and enhance product quality while phasing out outdated production capacity [7]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, but there are expectations for a moderate recovery in prices in the second half [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China, highlighting a shift from negative to positive growth in June, driven by various economic factors and policy measures [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month streak of negative growth, with the core CPI reaching a new high in nearly 14 months [1]. - The decline in CPI earlier in the year was significantly influenced by food prices, which fell by 0.9%, and energy prices, which decreased by 3.2%, collectively pulling down the CPI by approximately 0.4 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Recovery - Several factors are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year: 1. The economy is maintaining a stable and positive trend, with continued expansion in total demand, providing a macroeconomic foundation for price stability [3]. 2. Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to effectively stimulate consumption and support a rebound in consumer prices [3]. 3. Regulatory measures to address low-price disorder in the market will help improve market order and environment [4]. 4. The holiday effect is anticipated to promote stability or an increase in service-related prices [4]. 5. Technical factors indicate that the downward pressure from tail effects on both CPI and PPI will diminish in the second half of the year [4].