Core Insights - The oil market in 2025 is characterized by fluctuating supply and demand, alongside geopolitical factors, leading to price volatility and false breakouts, resulting in the longest losing streak for Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in history [1] - Algorithmic traders have recorded losses for three consecutive years in the oil market, with 2026 presenting a potential turning point amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - The trading environment for CTAs has been challenging due to erratic trade policies and conflicts in the Middle East, making it difficult to capture market trends [3] Group 1: Performance of CTAs - In 2025, CTAs experienced losses in oil trading for most of the year, with only a brief period of profitability at the end of the previous year [3] - Approximately 80% of trading weeks in 2025 saw CTAs adjusting their U.S. crude oil positions, with stability only observed in the fourth quarter when consensus on oversupply emerged [3] - Despite a challenging year, some systematic trading strategies achieved profitability in Brent crude oil and refined product spread trading [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market has been oscillating between increased global supply and various positive factors, including geopolitical tensions and weather disruptions [4] - Recent shifts in CTA positions from net short to net long indicate a potential new bullish trend, although geopolitical volatility continues to pose challenges [4] - The average daily trading volume of CTAs in WTI crude oil near-month contracts is expected to rise to 35% in 2026, compared to 15% to 25% in 2025 [4] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Some traders are pivoting towards metals and other commodities, seeking new opportunities amid the underperformance of oil [7] - The significant increase in diesel spread trading activity is projected to enhance CTA engagement in this contract by approximately 56% in 2026 [7] - The focus on systematic metal trading projects is aimed at diversifying portfolios and capitalizing on new market opportunities [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in 2025, highlighting their longest consecutive annual losses due to market volatility and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In 2025, CTAs experienced losses in crude oil trading for most of the year, with only a brief period of profitability at the end of the previous year when market consensus on oversupply emerged [4]. - The volatility in oil prices was exacerbated by geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. threats against Iran, which complicated the market environment for participants holding physical oil [4]. - Approximately 80% of trading weeks in 2025 saw CTAs adjusting their U.S. crude oil positions, with stability only observed in a few weeks during the fourth quarter when production levels rose [4]. Group 2: Trading Strategies and Performance - Recent market focus has shifted between global supply increases and various positive factors, including U.S.-Iran tensions and winter storms, prompting CTAs to reassess their trading strategies [5]. - Despite a recent shift from net short to net long positions by CTAs, the overall performance remained slightly negative since January 2025 due to recurring geopolitical challenges [5]. - Some systematic trading strategies found success in Brent crude oil and product spread trading, with a notable increase in activity in diesel spread trading expected to rise by approximately 56% in 2026 [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The proportion of CTAs in the average daily trading volume of WTI crude oil contracts is projected to increase to 35% by 2026, up from 15% to 25% in 2025, indicating a potential recovery in trading activity [5]. - Some traders are shifting focus to commodities outside of energy, with plans to launch systematic metal trading projects to diversify portfolios and capitalize on new opportunities [7].

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is $5405.00, with a change of $98.05 [1] - London Silver's latest price is $118.45, with a change of $5.65 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is $2671.00, with a change of $21.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is $2014.00, with a change of $34.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is $63.21, with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is $13913.50, with a change of $727.50 [1] - The latest dollar index is 96.16, with a change of -0.19 [1] - The latest euro - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.20, with no change [1] - The latest pound - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.38, with no change [1] - The latest dollar - to - yen exchange rate is 153.15, with a change of -0.16 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.90, with no change [1] Trading Data - COMEX silver inventory is 12698.10, with a change of -106.72 [1] - SHFE silver inventory is 482.01, with a change of -26.36 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 1086.53, with a change of -3.43 [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15523.36, with a change of -112.76 [1] - SGE silver inventory is 612.09, with no change [1] - The SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction has a change of 1.00 [1] - The SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction has no change [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Latest prices: London Gold at $4866.50, London Silver at $94.86, London Platinum at $2400.00, London Palladium at $1867.00, WTI Crude at $60.62, LME Copper at $12906.50, Dollar Index at 98.77, Euro to US Dollar at 1.17, Pound to US Dollar at 1.34, US Dollar to Japanese Yen at 158.32, US 10 - year TIPS at 1.97 [1] - Price changes: London Gold up $118.70, London Silver down $0.84, London Platinum up $32.00, London Palladium up $54.00, WTI Crude up $0.26, LME Copper down $22.00, Dollar Index up 0.23, Euro to US Dollar unchanged, Pound to US Dollar unchanged, US Dollar to Japanese Yen up 0.18, US 10 - year TIPS unchanged [1] Trading Data - Latest data: COMEX Silver inventory at 13135.42, SHFE Silver inventory at 600.78, Gold ETF holdings at 1077.66, Silver ETF holdings at 16222.48, SGE Silver inventory at 773.63, SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction at 2, SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction at 2 [1] - Changes: COMEX Silver inventory down 129.48, SHFE Silver inventory down 17.80, Gold ETF holdings down 4.00, Silver ETF holdings unchanged, SGE Silver inventory unchanged, SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction up 1.00, SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction unchanged [1] Others - The above chart data sources are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [2]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4612.95, with a change of 119.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 84.07, with a change of 5.93 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 2282.00, with a change of 65.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1833.00, with a change of 114.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 59.50, with a change of 0.38 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 13193.00, with a change of 320.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 98.89, with a change of -0.24 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.35, with a change of 0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 158.16, with a change of 0.23 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 13607.31, with a change of -70.15 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 649.64, with a change of 29.38 [1] - Gold ETF holdings latest is 1070.80, with a change of 6.24 [1] - Silver ETF holdings latest is 16347.95, with a change of 39.47 [1] - SGE Silver inventory latest is 818.51, with no change [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with a change of 1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, with no change [1]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4490.35 with a change of 33.95 [3] - London Silver's latest price is 78.48 with a change of 3.41 [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 2246.00 with a change of 20.00 [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1722.00 with a change of 62.00 [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 58.32 with no change [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 13372.00 with a change of 480.00 [3] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.33 with no change [3] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.17 with no change [3] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.35 with no change [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 156.41 with no change [3] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.91 with no change [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 13981.69 with no change [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 581.44 with a change of - 88.11 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1067.13 with a change of 2.00 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16118.16 with a change of - 235.44 [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 832.11 with no change [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction has a change of 1.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction has no change [4] Group 3: Other Information - The data sources for the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [8]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4421.65 with a change of 84.05 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 69.22 with a change of 3.43 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1956.00 with a change of 32.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1683.00 with a change of -28.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 11969.00 with a change of 159.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 14016.58 with a change of -95.90 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 901.47 with a change of 1.83 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 is 1064.56 with a change of 12.02 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 is 16599.25 with a change of 533.01 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 693.35 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 0.00 [1]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4346.95 with a change of 116.60 [4] - London Silver's latest price is 64.51 with a change of 2.39 [4] - London Platinum's latest price is 1669.00 with a change of 4.00 [4] - London Palladium's latest price is 1471.00 with a change of -10.00 [4] - WTI Crude's latest price is 57.44 with a change of -0.16 [4] - LME Copper's latest price is 11898.00 with a change of 273.00 [4] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.40 with a change of 0.06 [4] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [4] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.34 with a change of -0.00 [4] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 155.84 with a change of 0.27 [4] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.93 with a change of 0.04 [4] Trading Data - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 820.92 with a change of 40.32 [5] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1053.12 with a change of 2.29 [5] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16102.90 with a change of 19.74 [5] - SGE Gold's deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [5] - SGE Silver's deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 0.00 [5]

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4243.00, 58.11, 1636.00, 1446.00, 59.67, and 11678.50 respectively. The price changes are 42.40, 0.54, -10.00, -5.00, 0.00, and 202.50 respectively [3] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.06, 1.16, 1.33, 155.12, and 1.88 respectively. The changes are 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 0.03 respectively [3] Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 14221.15, 687.96, and 774.71 respectively. The changes in inventory are 0.00, 33.86, and 0.00 respectively [4] - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1050.25 and 15925.21 respectively. The changes are -0.33 and -169.24 respectively [4] - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 1 and 2 respectively, with no change [4]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3951.10 with a change of -74.15 [3] - London Silver's latest price is 47.76 with a change of -1.02 [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1580.00 with a change of -9.00 [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1463.00 with a change of -2.00 [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 61.05 with a change of 0.00 [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 10692.00 with a change of -220.00 [3] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 99.88 with a change of 0.00 [3] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.15 with a change of 0.00 [3] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.31 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 154.21 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.82 with a change of 0.00 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15002.46 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 665.61 with a change of 6.76 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1038.63 with a change of -3.15 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15189.82 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1050.68 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 0.00 [4]