下周看点颇多，12月美国就业数据，以及美国供应管理协会（ISM）发布的制造业和服务业活动数据， 将成为研判美国经济的健康状况，以及美联储下一次降息的可能时点关键依据。欧洲方面，欧元区通胀 数据将备受市场关注。地缘政治因素再次升温，美军抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，大宗商品市场 走向悬念再起。2026年度国际消费电子展（CES）将于1月6日在拉斯维加斯开幕，能否助力人工智能板 块企稳。 美国非农能否企稳 2025年，美联储已连续三次降息。接下来公布的美国就业及经济活动数据，将为判断美联储下一次降息 时点提供关键参考。 美联储12月议息会议纪要显示，部分政策制定者对短期内进一步降息持谨慎态度。会议结束后公布的美 国三季度国内生产总值（GDP）数据也远超市场预期。受此影响，货币市场预计，在美联储1月28日的 下一次议息会议上维持利率不变的概率高达 85%。市场目前预计，美联储要到6月才会再次降息 25 个 基点，且年内料将再进行一次降息。不过，若有迹象表明就业市场近期的放缓趋势仍在持续，则可能会 推前市场对降息时点的预期。 本周国际市场风云变幻，欧美股市收官2025，贵金属市场巨震。美股全线下挫，道指周跌0.67 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced fluctuations with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.34% and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.45% during the week [2] - European stock indices saw overall gains, with the UK FTSE 100 up by 0.16%, Germany's DAX 30 up by 1.30%, and France's CAC 40 up by 2.77% [2] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to lead to the resumption of economic data releases, with the September employment report anticipated to be the first data published [3] - Investors are cautious regarding the timing of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, with current market pricing showing equal probabilities for a rate cut or maintaining rates in December [3][7] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes on the 19th is expected to be closely analyzed by the market [3] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with significant attention on Nvidia's performance and retail giants like Walmart and Target, which will provide insights into U.S. consumer demand [5] - Several Chinese companies, including Baidu, NetEase, Ctrip, Pinduoduo, and NIO, are set to release their Q3 operational results [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw an increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.57% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, influenced by disruptions in Russian oil supply [6] - The International Energy Agency noted a significant increase in the amount of sanctioned crude oil being stored at sea, contributing to rising oil prices [6] - Gold prices experienced a rise of 2.21%, closing at $4087.60 per ounce, as the market weighs the prospects of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [6] European Economic Outlook - The upcoming week will see a relatively light data release in the Eurozone, with focus on the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for France, Germany, and the Eurozone as a whole [8] - The European Commission's autumn economic outlook report is scheduled for release on the 17th [9]

2025.11. 13 本文字数：1609，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周三美股涨跌互现，科技股继续承压，市场预期众议院将投票结束美国历史上持续时间最长的联邦政府停摆。截至收盘，道指涨326.86点，涨幅0.68%， 报48254.82点，再创历史新高，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.26%，收于23406.46点，标普500指数收涨0.06%，报6850.92点。 明星科技股分化，英伟达涨0.3%，苹果跌0.6%，谷歌跌1.4%，亚马逊跌1.9%，特斯拉跌2.0%，Meta跌2.8%，甲骨文跌3.8%。 金融板块发力上攻，高盛涨3.5%，花旗涨2.0%，摩根大通涨1.5%，美银涨0.9%。 个股方面，超威半导体AMD涨9.0%。此前，这家芯片制造商公布了长期财务指引，其中包括强劲的营收和利润增长预期。 这场持续42天的政府停摆已对美国经济造成压力，并导致美联储和交易员面临经济数据缺口，迫使他们只能依赖民间经济指标。周二发布的ADP（美国 自动数据处理公司）每周初步就业数据更新显示，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门雇主平均每周减少1.125 万个岗位，这一数据表明劳动力市场持续 疲软。 "当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, focusing on the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which has led to a rise in stock prices and investor confidence [3][4]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed higher across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 463.66 points (1.04%) to 44,922.27 points, the Nasdaq increasing by 0.14% to 21,713.14 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.32% to 6,466.58 points [3]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached their 17th and 20th record closing highs of the year, respectively, while the Dow is close to a new high [3]. - The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks sensitive to interest rates, rose nearly 2%, marking a six-month high [3]. Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Apple rising by 1.6% due to plans for expansion into AI robots, home security, and smart displays. Amazon increased by 1.4%, while Tesla, Google, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft experienced slight declines [3]. Interest Rate Outlook - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen called for a reduction in interest rates, suggesting they might need to be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September [4]. - According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch Tool, traders have fully priced in a 95.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 4.2% chance for a 50 basis point cut [4]. Bond Market and Economic Data - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 5.7 basis points to 4.24% and the 2-year yield down by 5 basis points to 3.68% [4]. - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a decline in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate by 10 basis points to 6.67%, marking the largest drop since February [5]. Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, leading to a drop in oil prices, with WTI crude falling by 0.82% to $62.65 per barrel and Brent crude down by 0.74% to $65.63 per barrel [5]. - International gold prices saw a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures for August delivery rising by 0.29% to $3,358.70 per ounce [5].

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - The employment growth for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards, causing surprise among analysts [3] - Employment growth has been concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, with a steady decline in the breadth of job creation in recent months [3] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 542.40 points (1.23%) to 43,588.58, the Nasdaq down 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.01 [1] - Amazon's stock dropped by 8.3% due to lower-than-expected revenue guidance for the third quarter [5] - Other major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, and Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8% [6] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield down by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, although overall market sentiment remains negative [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged due to increased risk aversion, with October contracts surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [8] - Oil prices were pressured by economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations, with WTI crude down 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [7]