美银证券将中国券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市中国券商2025至2026年 平均盈利增长30%，中金公司表现料领先。美银证券对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至 18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元人民币。H股券商的目标价平均上调4%(详见另表)，以反映更高的盈利 预测。充裕的市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、"十五五"规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值 得关注的关键催化剂。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，预期中国券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，同比 增长21%，受强劲的经纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司 (03908)和中信建投证券(06066)预计将领跑同行，第三季度净利润料分别同比增长258%和116%。 尽管基本面强劲，券商股H股在9月的表现未如理想，市场对2025年第四季至2026年上半年的增长以及 国家队减持的担忧影响了表现。目前估值为1倍远期市账率，平均股本回报率为9%，该行预计随着成交 量强劲增长和盈利超预期，估值仍有上行空间。中金、中信证券(06030)和广发证券(01776)是美银 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **MSCI China Index** and its performance in the context of the Chinese stock market, highlighting its recent structural improvements and growth potential [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **MSCI China Index** has shown a **48% cumulative return** over the past 12 months, with a **38% year-to-date return**, second only to South Korea's **50%** [1][9]. - The **earnings growth** has been a significant driver of market returns, contributing positively for three consecutive years since 2023: **0.6%** in 2023, **5.0%** in 2024, and **3.2%** in 2025 [2][13]. - The **profitability trend** has stabilized, with a notable shift in leading sectors, particularly in **internet, finance, and technology**, which now dominate the index [2][24]. - The **earnings revision breadth (ERB)** turned positive in August 2025, making MSCI China one of the only two major markets globally to exhibit this trend [18][24]. Future Outlook - The outlook for **sustainable earnings growth** is optimistic, particularly in key sectors such as **internet, technology, pharmaceuticals, and automotive** [3][40]. - The **banking sector** remains an exception with negative revisions, but its impact on overall earnings growth is expected to be limited [3][40]. - The **e-commerce sector** is anticipated to see a reduction in profit downgrades as price competition peaks in Q3 2025 [3][40]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the **structural improvements** in the Chinese market, including a recovery in **return on equity (ROE)** and a shift towards high-quality large-cap stocks [14][24]. - The **MSCI China forward P/E ratio** increased from **8.7x** in August 2024 to **12.3x** in September 2025, reflecting a **42%** rise, indicating a revaluation based on improved fundamentals [14]. - The **internet, finance, and technology sectors** collectively account for **76.9%** of the MSCI China Index, up from **70.4%** in 2022, highlighting a significant shift in market composition [24][26]. - The **expected contributions** to total earnings per share (EPS) from key sectors for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be around **80%**, with the internet sector expected to regain its leading position in EPS growth by 2026 [26][31]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed understanding of the current state and future potential of the Chinese stock market, particularly through the lens of the MSCI China Index.

Group 1 - The MSCI China Index has shown strong performance, with a total return of 48% over the past 12 months and 38% year-to-date, ranking second globally after South Korea [1][2] - Structural improvements, including a rebound in return on equity (ROE), continuous capital flow into high-quality large-cap stocks, and increased support for private enterprises and innovation, have contributed to the positive market sentiment and earnings re-rating [1][2] - Earnings growth has been a key driver of the market's performance, with positive contributions from earnings per share (EPS) growth for three consecutive years since 2023, marking the first time since 2010 that EPS growth has consistently contributed positively [2] Group 2 - The forecast for future earnings growth in the Chinese stock market remains optimistic, particularly in core sectors such as internet, technology, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, with market adjustments to earnings predictions [2] - The intense price competition in the domestic e-commerce sector is expected to end this year, leading to a projected acceleration in earnings growth for the sector by 2026, with a temporary slowdown in 2025 viewed as a phase of adjustment [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that HSBC Holdings achieved a strong second-quarter performance, with pre-tax profit exceeding market expectations, driven by robust net interest and non-interest income [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - HSBC's basic pre-tax profit (excluding special items) reached $9.2 billion, 10% higher than market consensus, with revenue exceeding expectations by 5% and costs in line with forecasts [1] - The reported pre-tax profit was $6.3 billion, which was 9% lower than market consensus, primarily due to a $2 billion impairment charge from Bank of Communications [1] - The bank's core Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 14.6% as of June 30, a quarterly decline of 10 basis points but in line with market consensus [1] Group 2: Income and Costs - The revenue outperformance was attributed to a 2% increase in net interest income and a 13% rise in non-interest income [1] - HSBC maintained its dividend and buyback plans at $0.10 per share and $3 billion, respectively [1] - The adjusted cost growth rate is projected at 3%, translating to approximately $33.3 billion in costs for the year [2] Group 3: Guidance and Future Outlook - HSBC's guidance for 2025 remains largely unchanged, with net interest income expected to be around $42 billion and a loan loss ratio of approximately 40 basis points [2] - The bank's return on tangible equity (RoTE) for the first half of 2025 was 18.2%, suggesting it can comfortably meet the upper target range of 14-16% [2] - The performance is expected to lead to a slight upward adjustment in consensus earnings per share forecasts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that HSBC Holdings achieved a pre-tax profit of $9.2 billion in Q2, exceeding market consensus by 10% [1] Financial Performance - HSBC's revenue was 5% higher than expected, with net interest income exceeding expectations by 2% and non-interest income by 13% [1] - The reported pre-tax profit of $6.3 billion was 9% lower than market consensus, primarily due to a $2 billion impairment charge from Hang Seng Bank [1] - Impairment losses reached $1.1 billion, which was 12% worse than market consensus, including $400 million related to Hong Kong commercial real estate [1] Capital and Dividends - As of June 30, HSBC's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio was 14.6%, a decrease of 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter, but in line with market consensus [1] - The quarterly dividend and buyback plan remain unchanged at $0.10 per share and $3 billion, respectively [1] Guidance and Outlook - HSBC maintains its full-year guidance for 2025, including net interest income of approximately $42 billion and an adjusted cost growth rate of 3%, implying costs of about $33.3 billion [2] - The loan loss ratio guidance has been slightly adjusted upwards, with a forecast of around 40 basis points [2] - Despite concerns regarding the return on tangible equity (RoTE) guidance, HSBC's adjusted RoTE for the first half of 2025 reached 18.2%, suggesting the bank can comfortably meet its target range of 14-16% [2]