Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report indicates price increases related to tariffs across all Federal Reserve districts from mid-July to the end of August [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.51% and the Nasdaq increased by 1.02% at market close [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that U.S. job vacancies in July were below expectations, suggesting a slowdown in hiring, which reinforces market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [3] - International gold prices rose over 1%, reaching a record closing high, with December gold futures closing at $3,635.5 per ounce, up 1.21% [3] Group 3 - In Europe, a surge in investment-grade bond issuances has led to rising yields and falling prices for corporate and government bonds, prompting some funds to shift towards equities for profit [5] - The three major European stock indices collectively rose, with the UK market up 0.67%, France up 0.86%, and Germany up 0.46% at market close [5][6] Group 4 - Market sources indicate that OPEC+ is planning to announce an increase in production capacity starting in October during an upcoming oil policy meeting, which may exacerbate the global oversupply of crude oil [8] - OPEC+ has increased daily oil production capacity by a total of 2.2 million barrels from April to September this year to capture market share [8] - International oil prices fell significantly, with light crude oil futures for October closing at $63.97 per barrel, down 2.47%, and November Brent crude futures at $67.60 per barrel, down 2.23% [8]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250613 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国高频就业数据走弱，以色列正式空袭伊朗 海外方面，美国 5 月核心 PPI 月率录得 0.1%，低于预期的 0.30%，但最新初请与续请 失业金人数双双超出预期，创下 2024 年 10 月来新高，市场年内降息预期有所提高。关税方 面，① 特朗普拟数日内签署美英贸易协议核心条款；② 加美谈判取得进展；③ 特朗普称 或将上调汽车关税；④ 美商务自 23 日起对洗衣机、冰箱等钢制家电加征关税。中东地缘局 势仍在恶化，13 日上午以色列空袭伊朗，带动金价站上 3400 美元、油价涨幅超 5%，短期 将加剧市场避险情绪。 国内方面，A 股横盘震荡，两市成交额稳定在 1.3 万亿关口，风格上微盘、科创表现占 优，行业上贵金属、生物科技领涨，波动率仍处于阶段性低位，关注市场对数据、事件的敏 感度抬升，若成交不放量，警惕短期回调风险；资金偏紧带动债市调整，长端国债表现较好。 近期将公布 5 月金融数据、经 ...