Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rebound in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 0.42% and 0.2% respectively, ending a two-day decline [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.48%, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with notable gains from Horizon Robotics (up over 3%) and Meituan (up over 2%) [3] - Real estate stocks surged, led by Vanke Enterprises, which rose over 13%, while other developers like Sunac China and China Jinmao also saw significant increases [6] - Precious metals performed strongly, with silver reaching a historical high and gold stocks being active throughout the day [1][5] - Consumer electronics stocks declined, with major player Semtech Corporation falling over 7% to a new low [1] - Shipping stocks experienced significant declines, with Pacific Basin Shipping dropping over 6% [11] Notable Stock Movements - Vanke Enterprises rose by 13.17% to HKD 3.780, while Sunac China and China Jinmao increased by 8.87% and 8.55% respectively [7] - Silver stocks like Lingbao Gold surged over 9%, with other gold-related companies also showing strong performance [5] - The restaurant sector saw gains, with Haidilao and Baifu Holdings rising over 3% [9] - Agricultural stocks, particularly in the pork sector, showed strong performance with WH Group rising over 10% [8] New Listings - Two new stocks were listed today, with Baoji Pharmaceutical-B increasing by 138.82% on its first day and Tudatong rising by 33% [1] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 1.018 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net sell of HKD 3.221 billion [18] Future Outlook - According to research from CMB International, the global economy is expected to show resilience in 2025, with ongoing AI technology cycles and coherent policies supporting investment opportunities [20] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to maintain a slow bull trend, with reasonable valuations and improving liquidity conditions [20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 2.1 HKD [5][7]. Core Insights - China Jinmao's sales amount increased by 20% year-on-year to 53.4 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with an average contract price of approximately 26,000 RMB per square meter, primarily driven by the top ten core cities [1]. - The company has focused on acquiring land in core cities, securing 16 new projects with a total land price of 49.2 billion RMB, emphasizing a precise investment strategy [2]. - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 25.11 billion RMB, a 14% increase year-on-year, with property development revenue growing by 17% [3]. - Financing costs have decreased significantly, with the average cost of new financing at 2.7%, down from the end of 2024 [4]. Sales Performance - The sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 53.4 billion RMB, with 74.5% of sales coming from the top ten core cities, particularly Shanghai and Beijing [1]. - The company achieved an opening rate of 81% for new projects launched within six months, indicating strong operational efficiency [1]. Land Acquisition Strategy - In 2025, China Jinmao acquired 16 projects with a total construction area of 1.45 million square meters, focusing on first and second-tier cities [2]. - The land acquisition strategy highlights a 66% investment concentration in Beijing and Shanghai, showcasing a targeted approach to growth [2]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 25.11 billion RMB, with property development revenue at 20.04 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [3]. - The profit, including fair value gains from investment properties, was 1.09 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year [3]. Financial Structure - The company successfully issued low-interest bonds, with the cost of the "25 Jinmao Investment MTN001" at 2.30%, a reduction of 109 basis points [4]. - As of June 30, total debt stood at 123.3 billion RMB, with a balanced debt maturity structure [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 11.7 HKD, based on the exchange rate of 1 RMB = 1.10 HKD as of August 28 [5][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue at 53.37 billion RMB (YoY -23.3%) and net profit at 1.21 billion RMB (YoY -63.5%) due to delivery pace and asset impairment impacts [1]. - The company's financial position is strong, with cash on hand of 66.8 billion RMB, covering short-term debt by 2.9 times, and a low short-term debt ratio of 16.3% [2]. - Land acquisition remains active, focusing on core first and second-tier cities, with 35 new projects adding a total saleable area of 3.55 million square meters, valued at 90.7 billion RMB [3]. - Sales performance is robust, with total sales of 122.2 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, ranking second in the industry, and a collection rate of 96% [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to decline by 15.4%, followed by -9.4% in 2026, and a slight recovery of -0.6% in 2027. Net profit is expected to decrease by 3.3% in 2025, then rebound with growth rates of 28.8% and 26.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [5][10]. - The average land acquisition cost is 8,280 RMB per square meter, with a significant portion of the land bank located in first and second-tier cities [3]. Market Position - The company ranks second in the industry in terms of total sales, with self-invested project sales at 80.3 billion RMB and equity sales at 53.9 billion RMB, maintaining a high average selling price of approximately 34,984 RMB per square meter [4].